Real Madrid have won three of their last four games, and now are just five points away from La Liga first place (Atletico Madrid), but next Sunday they’ll face one of the teams that already beat them this season, Valencia.
Let’s take a look at the latest team and player news, stats, injury reports and online betting odds for Real Madrid vs Valencia while making some predictions.
Game: Real Madrid vs Valencia
Location: Alfredo Di Stefano Stadium, Madrid
Time: Sunday, February 14, 10:15am ET
Television: beIN Sports
Live Stream: fuboTV
|Real Madrid||-1 ½||-240||3||2|
Head to Head
- Competitive Matches: 190
- Real Madrid Victories: 100 (354 goals)
- Valencia Victories: 51 (239 goals)
- Draws: 39
Valencia crushed Real Madrid 4-1 in their first matchup of the season. Carlos Soler played one hell of a match and scored a hat-trick (Valencia’s other goals was an own goal by Raphael Varane), while Karim Benzema scored for Real Madrid.
Last season, Real Madrid beat Valencia 3-0 at home; Karim Benzema scored twice, and Marco Asensio did the third one. Prior to that, Valencia and Real Madrid drew 1-1 at Mestalla, again with goals from Carlos Soler for the home side and Karin Benzema for the visitors.
Real Madrid have won five of their last 10 games against Valencia. “Los Blancos” have a 5-3-2 record during that span, and they scored 20 goals (Valencia scored 15 goals).
Moneyline: Real Madrid -240 | Valencia +600
Why Bet on Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have 46 points thanks to a 14-4-4 record, good enough for second place. They have five points less than Atletico Madrid, but “Los Colchoneros” have played two games less, so the difference could be 11 points.
That’s why Zinedine Zidane’s team can afford to lose next Sunday. Also, Barcelona have won their last six La Liga games and are just three points away from Real Madrid.
Real Madrid have scored 39 goals (third best among the top 10) and have allowed 19 (also third best among the top 10). The defensive unit has responded very well to Sergio Ramos’ absence due to injury (and to the rumors of him leaving to play for PSG).
Karim Benzema is not just the team’s top scorer with 11 goals; he also leads the team with five assists. Surprisingly enough, Casemiro follows him in the scoring chart with four goals, while Luka Modric and Federico Valverde have three goals each.
That’s right, the strikers are not contributing much, but that didn’t stop Zidane from sending Luka Jovic to the Bundesliga (loan). Zidane is trying to fix that by giving an opportunity to several young players such as Marvin and Sergio Arribas.
Real Madrid have already lost three games at home this season. They have a 7-0-3 record. They also have a 6-4 (against the spread) and 2-7-1 (over/under) records when playing at Alfredo Di Stefano Stadium.
Why Bet on Valencia?
Valencia are also in a must-win situation (for different reasons). They have won just two of their last five games; they have a 5-9-8 record, good enough for twelfth place (just Villarreal with 12 and S.D. Huesca with 10 have more draws than Valencia.
As we already mentioned, Valencia beat Real Madrid 4-1. They also drew 2-2 against Barcelona and lost 3-1 against Atletico Madrid.
They have scored 28 goals (second worst among the top 12) and allowed 30. As expected, Carlos Soler is the team’s top scorer with 6 goals (he’s followed by Maximiliano Gomez with five goals), but that’s not all, he also leads the team in assists with five.
I know it’s hard to make a compelling case for Valencia, but keep in mind that they have lost just one of their last four games against Real Madrid.
This season, Valencia have a 2-4-5 record when playing on the road. They also have a 4-4-3 (against the spread) and 7-4 (over/under) records when playing away from Mestalla.
Discarded Players and Projected Line-ups
Right now, Real Madrid could be considered as a hospital. They have several players out due to injury, including Sergio Ramos, Eden Hazard, Rodrygo, Dani Carvajal and Federico Valverde.
Real Madrid’s expected lineup is Thibaut Courtois, Ferland Mendy, Nacho, Raphael Varane, Marcelo, Marvin, Casemiro, Marco Asensio, Luka Modric, Vinicius Junior and Karim Benzema.
Valencia have three players out due to injury; Denis Cheryshev, Eliaquim Mangala and Mouctar Diakhaby.
Their expected lineup is Jaume Domenech, Thierry Correia, Gabriel Paulista, Hugo Guillamon, Jose Luis Gaya, Daniel Wass, Carlos Soler, Uros Racic, Goncalo Guedes, Manu Vallejo and Maximiliano Gomez.
Over/Under: 3 goals Real Madrid (14-4-4) | Valencia (5-9-8)
Just one of the last five games between Real Madrid and Valencia went over three goals. Three of the last four Valencia La Liga games went under three goals, while the last three Real Madrid La Liga games went under three goals or finished with a push.
Valencia always managed to make Real Madrid suffer. Also, Karim Benzema is pretty much alone at the front, and Valencia will try to take advantage of every counterattack opportunity.
Pick: Under 3 goals
Final Score Prediction: Real Madrid 1 – Valencia 1
Real Madrid vs Valencia Props Predictions
At BetUs you can also predict the correct score and the half time-full time winners. In three of their last five matches, the winning team at half time finished winning the game.
Real Madrid and Valencia have drawn four times in their last 12 matchups. Two of those draws were at Real Madrid’s home turf.
Here’s a quick rundown of Real Madrid vs Valencia latest results (La Liga):
- Valencia 4 – Real Madrid 1 (2-1 at half time)
- Real Madrid 3 – Valencia 0 (0-0 at half time)
- Valencia 1 – Real Madrid 1 (0-0 at half time)
- Valencia 2 – Real Madrid 1 (1-0 at half time)
- Real Madrid 2 – Valencia 0 (1-0 at half time)