With the 2020 US Open semifinals set and four men remaining in their chase to capture the men’s ATP portion of the Grand Slam event, it’s time to take a look at the value-packed tennis betting odds surrounding each player still standing.
In the first semifinal clash, No. 20 seed, Pablo Carreno Busta will look to extend his surprising run when he takes on No. 5 seed Alex Zverev. In the second semifinal pairing, No. 2 seed Dominic Thiem will battle No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev. With both matches set for Friday, let’s find out where the best betting value lies and have a look at the US Open Men’s semifinal odds.
First semi: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alexander Zverev
Pablo Carreno Busta +230
Alexander Zverev -270
The 29-year-old Carreno Busta has had one wild run. First, the Spaniard needed five sets to get past unheralded Yasutaka Uchiyama in the first round. Carreno Busta then took out Mitchell Krueger and Richard Berankis in straight sets each before getting the headline-making walkover win against world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the round of 16 after Djokovic inadvertently hit a linesperson with a wayward ball.
Carreno Busta then had to dig down deep to dispatch blossoming Canadian Denis Shapovalov in five sets to reach the semifinals. The 23-year-old Alexander Zverev has looked mostly fantastic, though he’s played four, four-set matches. The gifted German took out veteran Kevin Anderson in four sets in his opener before needing four more sets to subdue the feisty Brandon Nakashima in the second round. Zverev then needed four more sets to subdue No. 32 seed Adrian Mannarino before smacking Alejandro Davidovich Fokina senseless en route to a commanding 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 rout in the round of 16. Zverev then had his hands full against red-hot Borna Coric before pulling out his fourth four-set win of the 2020 US Open.
These two have met once with Zverev pulling out a 7-6 (4), 6-2 win at the 2018 Miami Masters. With that said, I definitely like Sascha Zverev to get the win and advance to the finals. While Carreno Busta has the advantage on speed and footwork, those are the only edges he holds with Zverev being the bigger, younger, and stronger player.
More importantly, Zverev has been serving extremely well and that makes him a completely different player than when he’s struggling with double-faults and inconsistency. Keep it simple and back a player that many fans and betting enthusiasts have been waiting on for a couple of years.
Pick: Alexander Zverev in 4 Sets
Second semi: Dominic Thiem vs Daniil Medvedev
Dominic Thiem Ev
Daniil Medvedev -120
Dominic Thiem, the world No. 3 and second seed at the US Open, has looked fantastic in reaching the semis. He took out Jaume Mnar in a two-set walkover in his opener. That was before downing Sumit Nagal in straight sets in the second round. Thiem got past former US Open winner Marin Cilic in four sets in the third round before overwhelming the blossoming Felix Auger-Aliassime, 7-6 (7), 6-1, 6-1 in the round of 16.
Thiem overpowered Alex De Minaur 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 to reach the semifinals. World No. 5 and third-seeded Daniil Medvedev, nearly won the 2019 US Open by falling to eventual champion Rafael Nadal in five thrilling sets.
This year, Medvedev has looked nearly unbeatable in winning all five of his matches in straight sets while not allowing a single opponent to win five games in any of his first four matches. Medvedev took out a game Andrey Rublev 7-6 (6), 6-3, 7-6 (7) in the quarterfinal round.
Thiem and Medvedev have met three times. Medvedev recorded a 6-2, 3-6, 7-6 (2) win in St. Petersburg in 2018 but Thiem has taken the last two meetings by winning 6-4, 6-0 at Barcelona in 2019 and 6-3, 6-1 at last year’s Canadian Masters.
This time though, I’m going with the cerebral Medvedev. He’ll level their head-to-head matchup at 2-2 by getting a tough, four-set win. Medvedev is the bigger, younger – and more strategical player. Plus, he’s got the knowledge of what it takes to reach the finals in New York, having done so a year ago.
While Thiem has improved immensely on hard courts the last couple of years, the fact is clay is his best surface. The edge –and your tennis betting bucks — should go on Medvedev in this intriguing affair.
Pick: Medvedev in 4 Sets