There was nothing separating Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno at UFC 256, but we think there will be a clear winner on Saturday.
The UFC Flyweight Championship is on the line as Brazillian Figueiredo is favored to retain his title against the always-tough Mexican.
Online betting markets have the champion at -230 to win outright in Arizona, and the fight is expected to go the full five rounds.
We can’t wait for the flyweights to show off their skills and the UFC 263 co-main event should live up to the hype. It’s on the same card as Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori, which should be another belter.
Figueiredo Eyes KO Victory
It wouldn’t be a UFC headline fight without the fighters exchanging words. Figueiredo doesn’t want a five-round decision and believes a knockout in the first 10 minutes is appropriate.
Moreno said Figueiredo doesn’t have power, but the Brazilian responded by saying that he wasn’t fully healthy in the first fight and a quick knockout is inevitable.
“I’m training for a short fight,” Figueiredo told Ag Fight. “I’m going to knock this guy out in the first or second round. I wasn’t 100 percent in the first fight. He’s been saying I don’t have potential, that my hands aren’t heavy. I’ll show him he’s wrong about what he thinks of me. I’m the kind of guy who can have this wrath awakened inside of me when my opponent starts talking nonsense. I had a meeting with my team and we came up with something inevitable. I want to show I’m the real owner of that belt.”
— UFC News (@UFCNews) June 8, 2021
UFC betting markets have Figueiredo at +130 to win via knockout, which is something he hasn’t done since beating Joseph Benavidez at UFC Fight Night 169 in March 2020.
His last three fights have garnered two submission victories and a draw. We think Figueiredo will try for a submission and play to his strengths, which would be the smart decision. Moreno is a slightly better striker, so he shouldn’t play to his strengths.
Moreno Embracing Underdog Role
Moreno is no stranger to being the underdog. He wasn’t given much chance in the first meeting but fought bravely to draw.
He’s the +180 underdog at UFC 263 and he plans on being more aggressive. The 27-year-old hasn’t lost since re-signing with the organization, including wins over Jussier Formiga, Kai Kara-France and Brandon Royval.
“I can be more aggressive because all my game plan in two weeks was like, be careful, take the time to see the counters, and take care of his power, and that’s it,” Moreno told What the Heck. “Right now, I feel his power, I know I can support the damage and I can be more aggressive.”
That fourth round between Figueiredo and Moreno was madness!
— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) June 8, 2021
Moreno will want to keep this fight standing up. He hasn’t won via submission since 2017, so it’s a clash of styles. He will need to keep his distance, which can be tough against the unrelenting offense of Figueiredo. However, Moreno has the advantage in power and they don’t breed them much tougher.
He deserves his time to shine as champion, but some fairytales aren’t meant to be told. He’s only 27, but if he’s unable to win at UFC 263, it could be his last chance.
Figueiredo vs Moreno Pick
We can’t look past Figueiredo, who looked underwhelming in the draw last year. However, he wasn’t at 100% and he has had more time to prepare for this fight.
The -230 is a short price, so we’re looking for more value in the props markets. We see this fight going the distance and for Figueiredo to squeeze out the decision victory.
Bettors get +200, which is better value than taking the fight to go the distance at -110. Figueiredo is more than capable of winning via decision as we don’t see either fighter scoring a knockout blow.
There have been solid betting moves for Figueiredo to score a knockout victory in Round 1 or Round 2. However, despite Figueiredo coming out and saying he wants to land the early KO, we don’t see Moreno rushing in foolishly.
The first fight was action packed but a stalemate, and we don’t expect this fight to be much different.