The UFC is at it again with another Pay-Per-View packed with three championship fights. While most of the UFC betting lines from the main fights are chalk heavy, several prop bets still offer plenty of value.
- Date: Saturday, April 24, 8 p.m. ET (Prelims); 10 p.m. ET (Main Card)
- Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL, United States
- Watch on: ESPN, Pay-per-view
Five Props That Can Hit
Grant Lives Up To Moniker
He isn’t called the “Body Snatcher” for no reason. The lanky Dwight Grant (10-3-0) has finished seven of his 10 wins by knockout and has mainly only lost to fighters outside of the Top 15.
Facing Stefan Sekulic (12-3-0), Grant gets an inexperienced and hittable striker. They’re about the same size but Grant packs more power. This is a step down in competition for Grant and he should dust Sekulic here.
Pick: Dwight Grant To Win By TKO, DQ, or Submission (Ev)
Oliveira and Brown Get Crazy
Randy Brown (12-4-0) and Alex Oliveira (22-9-1) in a potentially crazy firefight. Both of these big welterweights have combined for 27 finishes. Brown has an 83.3% finishing rate while Oliveira has a 77.2% clip. More importantly, only 12 of their 50 combined fights have seen the judges’ scorecards.
Oliveira is durable, but he’s susceptible to being submitted and he is hittable. Same goes for Brown who isn’t as durable. While four of Oliveira’s last five fights went to a decision, the seven prior to that were all finished. There is a better than a 54.5% chance someone gets finished here.
Pick: Fight Does Not Go The Distance -120
Crute and Smith Can End Quickly
Speaking of finishers, light heavyweights Jimmy Crute (12-1-0) and Anthony Smith (34-16-0) are fighters who rarely see the judges. Of Smith’s 50 fights, only five have gone the distance while eight of his nine UFC victories have come via a finish.
Crute isn’t to be outdone. He’s a blue-chip prospect and has finished all four of his UFC victories including his Contender’s Series fight. Both of these guys sling heavy leather and are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts. Don’t blink!
Pick: Fight Does Not Go The Distance -200
🇦🇺’s @CruteJim is an absolute SAVAGE!
— UFC_AUSNZ (@UFC_AUSNZ) April 20, 2021
Shevchenko Looks for the Finish
To nobody’s shock, Valentina Shevchenko (20-3-0) is a big online betting favorite yet again at -450. Instead of taking her straight-up, find the prop bet that she finishes Jessica Andrade (21-8-0) somewhere within five rounds.
While Andrade is a beast, five of her eight losses have come via a finish. Zhang Weili, a strawweight, knocked her out within 42 seconds while Liz Carmouche finished her with strikes making her the only fighter Carmouche has finished in the UFC.
Shevchenko is bigger than Zhang and is twice the fighter Carmouche is. She should be able to get Andrade to the ground where she’ll use her grappling skills to submit her or TKO her.
Pick: Shevchenko To Win By TKO, DQ, or Submission +130
Usman Sticks to the Plan
Like Shevchenko, Kamaru Usman (18-1-0) will be a -450 favorite in his rematch against Jorge Masvidal (35-14-0). These aren’t ideal odds. Instead, the prop bet on him to win a judges’ decision, like the first fight, is only at -125. That is decent value considering there is only a small chance he finishes Masvidal.
In 49 pro fights, Masvidal has only been finished three times with the most recent being way back in 2009. Usman has been a dominant wrestler, but he isn’t much of a finisher. He’ll take the finish if he sees it, but he won’t take risks against a guy like Masvidal.
Expect Usman to once again stick to a mixture of high-volume striking and control-oriented wrestling to win another clear-cut decision.
Pick: Kamaru Usman To Win By Decision -125