UFC 258 Betting Preview

Friends become rivals as UFC welterweight champion and pound-for-pound great Kamaru Usman defends against former teammate, Gilbert Burns. The BetUS online sportsbook has the odds for this title tilt and all fights on the card.

We’ve already seen big upsets this year and it’s only February. But I’m banking that this pay-per-view will be more straightforward and rewarding for fans of chalk as we break down the UFC betting odds of the biggest fights.

UFC 258 Betting Rundown

Date: Feb. 13, 10 p.m.
Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV, USA
Watch on: Pay-Per-View

Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns

With the great Khabib Nurmagomedov retired, Usman (16-6-0 1 NC) is the UFC’s most dominant male champion. The “Nigerian Nightmare” has decisively beaten every opponent put before him and the only reason he’s not earning more hype is due to his lack of finishes.

Usman fights Burns (14-3-0), who has found success as a welterweight. Since moving up, Burns is 4-0 with impressive wins over former champion Tyron Woodley and former two-time title challenger Demian Maia, the latter is who he knocked out in one round.

Many believe this will be Usman’s toughest test as Burns is both a decorated grappler and an explosive striker. He is and against most other fighters, Burns won’t be anywhere as high as a 2-1 underdog. But this is Usman, who can put on fast-paced pressure for 25 whole minutes.

Usman has never been taken down in his UFC career and lands a whopping 3.38 per 15 minutes. Additionally, he lands 4.50 significant strikes per minute (SLpM) and absorbs only 2.23. He barely takes any damage in his fights as he’s usually smothering opponents with his wrestling or beating them up on the feet.

Burns is familiar with Usman and has the strength and skill to make the fight competitive but he won’t be able to compete for the whole 25 minutes. Burns hasn’t fought anyone who will push him for five whole rounds the way Usman will.

At some point, Burns will get worn down and Usman will take over and roll to another undisputed victory.

UFC 258 Betting Odds For This Event

Bet on this fight with the latest UFC odds from BetUS sportsbook’s UFC section. The odds are currently:

Burns +210
Usman -280

* odds are subject to change

Pick: Kamaru Usman to win -280

Maycee Barber vs Alexa Grasso

The betting public has become smarter on Barber (8-1-0), who was once touted as a future champion as they steamed Grasso when she opened as an underdog. Now the line has totally flipped.

I still think Barber can be a contender, but her loss to Roxanne Modafferi exposed just how limited she is. Fortunately for her, Grasso (12-3-0) isn’t a classic grappler like Modafferi but a striker like her.

It will be interesting to see how Barber adjusts her style coming from the butt-whooping she took against Modafferi. Grasso isn’t as accomplished a grappler but she can get the fight there if she chose to. She’s also a sharp boxer, has a good chin, and can hit hard even if she’s never TKO’d anyone in the UFC.

If Barber gets too aggressive as she’s done before, there is a good chance Grasso can put her on her butt and beat her up on the ground. But if Barber plays a more measured approach, the fight will be closer.

Still, I favor Grasso because she has more big fight experience and is just a bit better everywhere.

UFC 258 Betting Odds For This Event

Barber +115
Grasso -145

* odds are subject to change

Pick: Alexa Grasso to win -145

Feature Fight: Kelvin Gastelum vs Ian Heinisch

It wasn’t too long ago that Gastelum (16-6-0 1 NC) gave middleweight king Israel Adesanya the greatest fight of his life. Since then, he’s dropped fights to Darren Till and Jack Hermansson and desperately needs a win. Heinisch (14-3-0) is a significant step down in competition though he’s still dangerous.

Gastelum has all the makings of a champion: he has fast hands and hits hard. He not only hit Adesanya repeatedly, but even wobbled him and was this close to finishing him. On top of that, his ground game is vicious. He can either ground-and-pound for a TKO or lock in a choke. Either way, Gastelum on top is a done deal.

This is bad news for Heinisch who has not only been hittable but also susceptible to getting taken down. Kudos to him as he’s durable and does not quit, but Gastelum is also several levels higher than the Gerald Meerschaerts and Cezar Ferreiras of the UFC.

Wherever this fight goes, Gastelum has the advantage. But it should stay standing where Gastelum will light up Heinisch utilizing his faster hands.

Of course, Gastelum needs to show up in prime condition. If he’s anything less than optimal, it could be a lot closer though the more talented Mexican-American should still win.