Betting on the NFL sacks leader requires patience, analysis, and an understanding of the types of plays and players that generate more opportunities for sacks. In general, there is a positive correlation between teams who blitz more frequently and teams who post high sack totals.
Understanding how often coaches dial up a blitz can give you an edge in betting on the NFL sacks leader.
Another point to consider is a defensive player’s positioning on the field.
Because of their general responsibilities in a defense, players on the defensive line have a higher likelihood of getting to an opposing quarterback for a sack than a safety or cornerback.
In recent years, the NFL has somewhat shifted away from the idea of a defensive end and instead gravitated towards the idea of an edge rusher – a player who utilizes their speed to apply pressure to a quarterback but is still capable of run-stopping duties more typically handled by a linebacker.
They tend to have more speed than a prototypical defensive end, allowing defensive coordinators to draw up more elaborate plays meant to stifle opposing offenses.
Though past performances aren’t always a guarantee of future results, it can be useful to look at past sack leaders when placing futures bets.
For instance, before the beginning of the 2020 season, players like Arizona Cardinals outside linebacker Chandler Jones and New Orleans Saints Cameron Jordan were placed high in the projections due in large part to their 2019 totals (Jones had 19 sacks that season, Jordan had 15.5).
T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa, and even J.J. Watt were men high on the list but not leading. For the 2020 season, it was T.J. Watt who dominated the category as NFL sacks leader, with a total of 15. Preseason
While making your bet at the beginning of the season likely offers a higher payout, you’re more likely to win your bet by waiting a few weeks to see how the season takes shape. Entering Week 14 of the 2021 season, T.J. Watt leads the sack count with 16.
Myles Garrett has 14, followed by the New England Patriots’ Matthew Judon with 12.5.
From a broader team overview, the Steelers are currently sitting in third place of the AFC North Division with a 6-6-1 record. Even though the Steelers have been unable to put out both consistent offensive and defensive performances, Watt has accomplished a lot for his team as a pass rusher.
Watt stands as the obvious pick to take the NFL sacks leader category, yet there is a catch. Multiple players have accomplished the feat on more than one occasion, yet none have done it twice in a row since Reggie White accomplished the feat in the 1987 and 1988 seasons.
As you can see, the level of analysis you need to consider might be somewhat extensive but not too complex. Make sure to gather as much data as possible for reference before placing a wager.
Devote some time to learning how the category works and which players lead it. Once you feel you have built the best possible criteria, start placing your wagers and try to do so as early as you can through the season. This will help make the most out of your picks.