ATP Indian Wells Preview

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Djokovic’s withdrawal at the start of the week puts to bed the “will he or won’t he compete in Indian Wells” debate. It is unfortunate, of course – especially for his fans and the sport itself. But it’s not the be-all and end-all of a tournament that annually attracts the best players in the men’s and women’s game to the Californian desert, carries a handsome prize purse, and is widely known as the fifth Grand Slam event of the year.

In Djokovic’s absence, world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz moves into the No. 1 seed spot. World No. 6 Daniil Medvedev is riding the wave of a three-tournament winning streak, making him the oddsmaker’s favorite as we look at the latest tennis odds. Whereas American Taylor Fritz is preparing to defend the biggest title of his career, one that he clinched last year by beating Rafael Nadal in the final. However, the top-ranked American comes in as the sixth-best bet, which is telling.

Bet on ATP Marrakech Outrights Odds

ATP BNP Paribas Open Odds

1. Daniil Medvedev +250
2. Carlos Alcaraz +600
3. Stefanos Tsitsipas +800
4. Jannik Sinner +1000
5. Holger Rune +2000
6. Andrey Rublev +2200
7. Taylor Fritz +22000
8. Felix Auger-Aliassime +2200
9. Alex De Minaur +2800
10. Alexander Zverev +3300
11. Casper Ruud +3300
12. Cameron Norrie +3300
13. Hubert Hurkacz +3300
14. Tommy Paul +4000
15. Matteo Berrettini +4000

BNP Paribas Open Draw Analysis

In this section, we break down the four quarters, analyzing the path that the top seeds will face to reach the quarterfinal round. Then, we provide some way-too-early tennis predictions, serving up our choice picks for the semis and final rounds.

First Quarter: Alcaraz, Auger-Aliassime On Quarterfinal Collision Course

• • Top Seeds: No. 1 Alcaraz, No. 8 Auger-Aliassime, No. 9 Hurkacz, No. 15 Carreno Busta, No. 17 Paul, No. 24 Evans, No. 27 Cerundolo, No. 31 Griekspoor

• Dangerous Floaters: Draper, Murray, Sock, Kokkinakis

World No. 2 Alcaraz is only playing in his third tournament of the season. The 19-year-old Spaniard was forced to withdraw from the Australian swing due to an injury. Then, after winning the Buenos Aires title and finishing runner-up to Cameron Norrie in Rio last month, he was forced to withdraw from Acapulco with another injury.

Alcaraz proved he’s a force to reckon with, winning two ATP Masters 1000 titles (Miami and Madrid) and the US Open last year. So, although he is the second-best bet at +600 and goes into Indian Wells with legitimate question marks, he’s still one to spot for your tennis picks.

Slam champ @carlosalcaraz kicks off as the top seed against Holt or a qualifier.#TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/FpcfSFRe6A

— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) March 6, 2023

The top-ranked Spaniad will face either Thanasi Kokkinakis or Brandon Holt in the R64. No. 31 seed Tallon Griekspoor is slated as a potential R32 opponent along with Thiago Monteiro and Guido Pella. No, 15 Pablo Carreno Busta and No. 24 Daniel Evans represent the potential seeded threats that could emerge in the R16. Alternatively, Andy Murray and Jack Draper are two of several dangerous floaters that could shake up this section and advance into the last 16.

Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime will lead the charge from the opposite end of the first quarter. He will take on either Pedro Martinez or Marc-Andrea Huesler in the R64. Then, Jack Sock, Gregoire Barrere or No. 27 Francisco Cerundolo loom as potential R32 opponents. In the R16, the possible contenders include No. 9 Hubert Hurkacz, No. 17 Tommy Paul, and a slew of outsiders such as qualifiers Jan-Lennard Struff and Zhizhen Zhang, Quentin Halys, and lucky loser Alexei Popyrin.

Quarterfinal prediction: Alcaraz vs Hurkacz

Second Quarter: Fritz, Rune on Quarterfinal Collision Course

• Top Seeds: No. 4 Fritz, No. 7 Rune, No. 11 Sinner, No. 16 De Minaur, No. 18 Coric, No. 19 Musetti, No. 16 Kecmanovic, No. 30 Baez
• Dangerous Floaters: Thiem,, Wawrinka, Krajinovic, Wolf, Molcan, Shelton, Fognini

The second quarter of the draw is the proverbial group of death with defending champion Fritz leading the charge as the highest seed in this quarter. Joining the American is rising teenage sensation No. 7 seed Holger Rune, NextGen star and No. 11 seed Jannik Sinner, and No. 16 seed Alex De Minaur, the recently crowned Acapulco champion. But that’s not all, as three-time Grand Slam champion Stanislas Wawrinka and former US Open champion Dominic Thiem are also included in this section.

The draws are complete!

See your favorite’s road to the final 🏆#TennisParadise

— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) March 7, 2023

Fritz will face either veteran Fabio Fognini or American Ben Shelton in his tournament opener in the R64. Then, Mikael Ymer, qualifier Rinky Hijikata, or No. 20 Sebastian Baez are possible R32 challengers. Should Fritz reach the R16, he could face No. 16 seed De Minaur or No. 18 seed Borna Coric. Conversely, American J.J Wolf, Slovakia’s Alex Molcan, and Albert Ramos Vinolas are some of the dark-horse contenders that could defy the betting online odds to emerge here as well.

Rune is slated to take on the winner of Mackenzie MacDonald and Filip Krajinovic in the second round. Then, in the R32, the Danish teen could come up against Wawrinka, Aleksander Vukic, or No. 25 Miomor Kecmanovic. The real test for Rune is going to be No. 11 seed Sinner, who is on course for a showdown in the R16. Of course, other potential R16 opponents are no less daunting and include No. 19 seed Musetti, Thiem, Richard Gasquet, and Adrian Mannarino, to name a few.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Shelton vs Rune

Third Quarter: Ruud, Medvedev on Quarterfinal Collision Course

• Top Seeds: No. 3 Ruud, No. 6 Medvedev, No. 12 Zverev , No, 13 Kachanov, No. 22 Bautista Agut, No. 23 Davidovich-Fokina, No. 28 Van de Zandschulp, No. 29 Nishioka
• Dangerous Floaters: Nakashima, Ruusuvuori

No. 3 seed Casper Ruud and No. 6 Daniil Medvedev flank opposite ends of the third quarter, setting them on a collision course in the final eight. While most expect Medvedev, who is the favorite according to sports betting markets, to reach the quarterfinals, the jury is out on Ruud. The Norwegian brings a subpar 3-4 record to Indian Wells.

Two-time Slam finalist and No.4 @CasperRuud98 will square off against one of Argentina’s finest in either Schwartzman or Coria.#TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/uzWCBlqDvE

— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) March 6, 2023

Medvedev begins his campaign against the winner of John Isner versus Brandon Nakashima. In the third round, the Russian will take on either Illya Ivashka, Roman Safiullin, or No. 28 Botic Van de Zandschulp. No. 12 Alexander Zverev looms as a potential R16 stumbling block, but other contenders such as Pedro Cachin, Constant Lestienne, and Emil Ruusuvuroi are possible opponents as well.

Ruud’s section will see him face No. 13 Karen Khachanov in the R16. Before that, the Norwegian will need to navigate a successful course through the early rounds. He’ll start his bid in the R64 against the winner of Federico Coria and Diego Schwartzman. In the R32, Cristian Garin, Daniel Elah Galan, or No. 29 Yoshihito Nishioka could give him a run for his money.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Medvedev vs Ruud

Fourth Quarter: Tsitsipas, Rublev on Quarterfinal Collision Course

• Top Seeds: No. 2 Tsitsipas, No. 6 Rublev, No. 10 Norrie, No. 14 Tiafoe, No. 20 Berrettini, No. 21 Dimitrov, No. 25 Shapovalov, No. 32 Cressy
• Dangerous Floaters: Lehecka, Giron, Sonego, Monfils

No. 2 seed Stefanos Tsistipas rings in as the third-best bet at +800 while No. 6 seed Andrey Rublev is among the Top 10 bets in the sportsbook.

Tsitsipas got no favors from the draw with a potential first-round encounter against fan favorite Gael Monfils. Then, the R32 could see the Greek take on American and No. 32 seed Maxime Cressy, qualifier Alejandro Tabilo, or qualifier Maximillian Marterer. American and No. 14 seed Frances Tiafoe or No. 21 seed Grigor Dimitrov are the highest-seeded threats in Tsitsipas’ path to the quarterfinals. Alternatively, Lorenzo Sonego, Jason Kubler, wild card American Aleksandar Kovacevic, and American Marcos Giron are potential R16 opponents.

Not a bad seat in this house 🏟#TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/M2wCbVjUjC

— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) February 2, 2023

Rublev is coming off a runner-up finish to Medvedev in Dubai. The Russian is in form and brimming with confidence after a solid start to his 2023 campaign. In Indian Wells, he’ll be seeking to extend that good form, but he too gets no favors from the draw with a potential tournament opener against Jiri Lehecka. The Czech rising star takes on veteran Arthur Rinderlnech in the first round and is widely expected to advance into the R64.

Then, Rublev could come up against dangerous floater and No. 25 seed Denis Shapovalov, Ugo Humbert, or Bernabe Zapata Miralles in the R32. No. 10 Cameron Norrie is the highest-seeded threat slated to meet Rublev in the R16. Conversely, other possible fourth-round challengers are No. 20 Matteo Berrettini, Taro Deniel, Roberto Caballes Baena, Alexander Bublik, and Tung-Lin Wu.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Lehecka vs Tsitsipas

The Final Rounds:

• Semifinal Prediction: Alcaraz vs Rune
• Semifinal Prediction: Tsitsipas vs Medvedev
• Final Prediction: Alcaraz vs Medvedev
• BNP Paribas Open Winner: Alcaraz