Former Grand Slam champions collide when Elena Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko go head-to-head in the Australian Open quarterfinals.
Rybakina, who is a more recent addition to the Slam winners’ circle with her win at the 2022 Wimbledon Championships, is the favorite to advance into the final four. Rybakina is priced at -200 on the moneyline to win.
But Ostapenko, who won the 2017 French Open, is a wild card that can’t be underestimated and as the +170 underdog on the moneyline, she cuts a fine figure for the upset.
Alternatively, the games handicap, which is projected to 3½ games, and the total, which is set to 21½ with the over and under juiced at -110, respectively, offer other angles for profit.
Where are the best bets to be had? On the moneyline? Games Handicap? Or Total? Find out as we weigh in on the Australian Open quarterfinal match between Rybakina and Ostapenko, examine the latest tennis odds, key storylines, and serve up choice tennis picks for your consideration.
Australian Open Women’s Outrights
- Jessica Pegula +300
- Elena Rybakina +325
- Aryna Sabalenka +350
- Carolina Garcia +600
- Belinda Bencic +1000
- Jelena Ostapenkoa +1100
- Victoria Azarenka +1100
- Karolina Pliskova +2000
- Donna Vekic +2200
- Linda Fruhvirtova +4000
- Shuai Zhang +5000
- Magda Linette +5000
From Middleweight and Long Shot To Contenders
Rybakina, priced as a +2000 middleweight, didn’t register on everyone’s radar when the Australian Open odds initially went to press. Same goes for Ostapenko, who was a far-flung +5000 bet and barely an afterthought at the sportsbook exchange.
Fast forward through the first week, and Rybakina emerges as the second-best bet to win the Australian Open title at +340, while Ostapenko is tipped as the +1100 bet to win it all.
Rybakina Takes Down Swiatek
Kazakhstan’s Rybakina, 23, coasted under the radar in the first two rounds, recording straight-set wins over Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Kaja Juvan. Then she went the distance against last year’s runner-up Danielle Collins, beating the American in a three-set marathon, 6-2, 7-5, 6-2 in the R32.
However, her statement win over World No. 1 and presumptive favorite Iga Swiatek caught the imagination of bettors. Rybakina was relentless and utterly dominant as she dispatched Swiatek in straight sets 6-4, 6-4 in the R16. Thus, underscoring her status as a bona fide contender at the betting online exchange.
"I'm nervous every time I go on court."
Could have fooled us 😉
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 22, 2023
Ostapenkoa Takes Down Gauff
Latvia’s Ostapenko fell into a favorable section of the draw and managed to avoid a seeded player through the first week. Of course, that changed in the R16 when she faced No. 7 seed Coco Gauff.
Ostapenko went into the fourth-round match against the American teenager as the distinct underdog in betting online markets. Gauff had entered the tournament as one of the favorites and players to beat, after all. But the 24-year-old Latvian didn’t get the memo and proceeded to dismantle Gauff in a hard-fought 7-5,. 6-3 win.
Jelena Ostapenko on her RG title: "I needed time to get used to it. A lot of attention from everywhere, photo shoots and all those things. Everybody is watching you. Everybody expects you to win and now it’s already, what, 6 years? I’m just hungry now to win another Grand Slam." pic.twitter.com/TshBcaQeUB
— Mario Boccardi (@marioboc17) January 22, 2023
Rybakina vs Ostapenko Head-to-Head
Ostapenko has the 2-0 H2H edge, having beaten Rybakina twice on grass – 2019 Linz and 2021 Eastbourne. This is their first meeting in two years and their first match on a hard court, which might favor Rybakina slightly. That said, the big-hitting Ostapenko can beat anyone on any surface on a good day.
Rybakina vs Ostapenko Betting Verdict
Rybakina was extremely underrated ahead of the Australian Open. In reality, she’s a Top 10 player in all but name, though she ranks at No. 25. Rybakina never received points for her Wimbledon win. Both the WTA and ATP, responding to the All England Club’s decision to ban Russian and Belarussian players, withheld ranking points as a protest to the controversial ban. .
Ostapenko is through to her first quarterfinal at a hard court major after previously only going as far as the third round at both the US Open and Australian Open. But that’s a moot point as she’s an all-court player and a proven major champion.
All told, this is a total toss-up for tennis picks. According to the bookmakers, Rybakina should win. But enough stats, along with the intangibles, point to Ostapenko as the value bet.
For those bettors brave enough, backing the Latvian for the upset is definitely worth a flutter and it should surprise nobody if she does win. That said, hedging your bets on the games’ handicap and total is probably the smarter tennis betting strategy. If nothing else, Ostapenko will make it hard for Rybakina to come through as the betting favorite.
Pick: Jelena Ostapenko +3½ (-115)
Pick: Over 21½ (-115)