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Does Djokovic Have Mortgage on U.S. Open?

Bookmakers Think World No. 1 is Slam Dunk to Win Tournament

Rarely do we see a tennis player so short in the betting markets to win a Grand Slam tournament, but Novak Djokovic is defying belief.

The Serbian superstar is -161 to win at Flushing Meadows this week. Even Roger Federer wasn’t that short to win Wimbledon and Rafael Nadal was not that short to win the French Open.

Novak's Insane Field Odds
AFP PHOTO FRANCOIS GUILLOT

It’s incredible betting support for the 20-time Grand Slam winner, so we’re out to see if he’s worth a bet.

Why Odds So Short

Having 20 Grand Slams in your pocket demands respect from the sportsbook, but they’re painting a picture that he can’t be beaten.

Novak Djokovic is trying to win the calendar Grand Slam after scoring wins in the Australian Open, French Open, and Wimbledon already this year. It’s a feat achieved only by a few players before him, so it would put him in elite company.

No male player has won the Calendar slam since Rod Laver, and there are tennis arenas named after him. That’s what’s on the line for Djokovic over the next 10 days, but with that comes added pressure.

Bookmakers have reacted by installing Djokovic as the odds-on favorite. In some cases, it’s a fair line because he’s the best player in the tournament, but it’s also hard for bettors to commit at such a short quote.

The best player doesn’t always win and it can be wise to find players capable of causing an upset. In Djokovic’s case, he is vulnerable after the bombing of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and his attitude has taken a turn for the worse in recent times.

Djokovic Ripe for Picking

We think Djokovic will breeze into the semifinals, but he will meet his match when he plays either Alex Zverev or Daniil Medvedev.

The reign of the Big Three (Djokovic, Federer, Nadal) will soon come to an end, and it will be time for the next generation to take over and dominate. We’re not sure if Zverev and Medvedev are capable of emulating the three greatest players of all time, but they’re just as talented at their age.

Federer and Djokovic weren’t overly successful to start their careers, so there is hope for the players coming through. We believe they’re capable of beating Djokovic, provided they can get into his head.

When things start to go wrong for the Serbian, he is capable of falling off the rails. After being knocked out in Tokyo, he pulled out of a potential medal-winning game in the mixed doubles. He cited an injury, but we think the win-at-all-costs mentality for Djokovic is starting to have an adverse effect.

The man once known as “The Joker” has ended his funny impersonations of other tennis players and replaced it with temper tantrums on the court. We understand that with fame, money, and power comes a different set of rules, but beating a relaxed Djokovic is much harder than an angry one.

When playing Holger Rune in the first round, Djokovic thought the crowd was booing him.

Little Value

“I didn’t know what they were chanting honestly,” Djokovic told The Guardian. “I thought they were booing. It was not an ideal atmosphere for me. But I’ve been in these particular atmospheres before, so I knew how to handle it.”

Ten years ago, Djokovic would have been aware of the situation and probably joined in on the fun. That’s not the case these days, but it’s hardly surprising.

He is ripe for the pickings at the 2021 U.S. Open, but in no way is that reflected in betting markets. Djokovic has been backed into -161 in betting online markets, so it’s a hefty move for the world No. 1.

Alex Zverev is +550 to win the tournament, which represents much better value. He is coming off an Olympic gold and a win at the Cincinnati Masters, so he is our pick to win the U.S. Open.

There is value in bookmakers, but it’s not with Djokovic. He might be the best player in the tournament, but from a betting perspective, taking -161 consistently in futures markets is unlikely to see a profit returned.

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