Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas are the top seeds going into the 2022 Nitto ATP Finals this week, but seventh seed Novak Djokovic is the oddsmakers’ favorite to win the prestigious title when all is said and done.
Below we preview the Nitto ATP Finals Odds and draw. We’ll look at the tennis news, injury reports and stats as we prepare some early tennis predictions for your consideration.
2022 Nitto ATP Finals Outright
- Novak Djokovic +125
- Daniil Medvedev +375
- Felix Auger-Aliassime +550
- Rafael Nadal +750
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +800
- Taylor Fritz +1100
- Casper Ruud +1400
- Andrey Rublev +1500
Novak Djokovic the Player To Beat
As per the sportsbook exchange, Djokovic is the player to beat at +125. The Serbian star is seeking to win his sixth ATP Tour Finals title to tie Roger Federer in the history books (six titles).
The 2020 champion and 2021 runner-up Medvedev is the second favorite, but at more than double the betting online odds. While debutant Felix Auger-Aliassime comes in as the third favorite at +550.
Top seed Nadal is the fourth overall choice at +750 as he seeks to win his first title at this year-end extravaganza.
Second seed and the 2019 champion Stefanos Tsitsipas rounds out the top contender’s list as the +800 bet.
American Taylor Fritz, who is making his debut at this tournament, is priced at +1100. Norway’s No.1 Casper Ruud comes in as the distant +1400 bet while debutant Andrey Rublev is the longshot of the group at +1500.
— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 12, 2022
Green Group Betting
- Felix Auger-Aliassime +150
- Rafael Nadal +215
- Taylor Fritz +350
- Casper Ruud +400
Nadal Headlines the Green Group
Nadal couldn’t have received a better group in his bid to win the 2022 Nitto ATP Finals title. The top seed has a solid 5-1 head-to-head record against the field in the Green Group, which includes third seed Ruud, fifth seed Auger-Aliassime and eighth seed Fritz.
Indeed, the only player in this group to take the measure of Nadal is Fritz. The American trails 1-2 lifetime against Nadal but is tied 1-1 in 2022 after defeating Nadal in straight sets at the Indian Wells Masters. It marked his first-ever Masters title.
Nadal leads Ruud 1-0 lifetime, having beaten the Norwegian in the French Open final this year. He leads Auger-Aliassime 2-0 lifetime and 1-0 in 2022, beating the Canadian in the R16 of the French Open.
"Almost one less rival"
😭😭😭 Rafa Nadal
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) November 12, 2022
By all accounts, Nadal (+215) is a bet worth considering to advance out of this group. He’s played limited matches since the US Open, but that could be to his advantage as he’ll be the freshest in this section.
Auger-Aliassime is favored mainly because he comes into this tournament on good form, having won the title in Basel. That said, his lack of experience at this level could be deciding. It’s also worth considering the fact that the Canadian has a losing record against all his opponents: he is 0-1 vs Fritz and 1-2 vs Ruud and winless against Nadal.
Arguably, Ruud has been the most consistent player of this group after Nadal. That could make him the value play for tennis picks at +400.
He was a finalist at the French Open and the US Open. He’s winless against Nadal and he’s never faced Fritz 0-0. But he has the 2-1 head-to-head edge over Auger-Aliassime.
- Predictions: Nadal and Ruud to advance into final four
Red Group Betting
- Novak Djokovic -140
- Daniil Medvedev +250
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +450
- Andrey Rublev +1000
Djokovic Headlines Group of Death
Djokovic comes into the tournament riding the momentum of two title winning runs in Tel Aviv and Kazakhstan and a runner-up finish at the Paris Masters (l. to Holger Rune).
Although he is the seventh seed in Turin, it comes as no surprise to see him as the runaway favorite at -140 to win the Red Group.
Djokovic has a solid 17-7 head-to-head record against the field which includes a 9-2 record over Tsitsipas, a 7-4 record over Medvedev and a 1-1 record over Rublev.
Top seed Tsitsipas is potentially the value play in this section to emerge into the final four. He’s one of the most consistent players in 2022 behind a stellar 60-22 record and two titles. He was a finalist at the Astana Open (l. to Djokovic) and in Stockholm (l. to Rune) last month. Recently, he reached the Paris Masters semis (l. to Djokovic).
— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 5, 2022
Tsitsipas trails Medvedev 3-7 lifetime but the pair split their meetings 1-1 this year. His only winning record comes against Rublev, 6-4 – a run of form that includes a 2-0 record in 2022.
Medvedev has reached the final in back-to-back years. He’ll be looking to make his third consecutive final appearance and the bookmakers appear to like his chances to emerge from this group with odds of +250.
To be fair, Medvedev is a player one can never dismiss out of hand. He’s streaky, but when he’s on, he’s one of the best hard-courters in the game. His odds are underscored by winning records against Tsitsipas and Rublev (4-1), but his form has been patchy in recent weeks. He won the title in Vienna but crashed out of the Paris Masters in the first round.
- Predictions: Tsitsipas and Medvedev to advance into final four