In the absence of World No.1 Iga Swiatek, World No. 21 Simona Halep emerges as the top favorite across tennis betting markets to win the prestigious Madrid Open title. The Romanian star leapfrogs ahead of several top players, including World No. 2 and home favorite Paula Badosa, World No. 4 Aryna Sabalenka, World No. 5 Maria Sakkari, and so on.
Does the market have it right? Is Halep, (a former French Open champion) the player to beat this week in the Spanish capital?
Join us as we preview the Madrid Open draw, examine the tennis odds, and offer up some discerning insight on what is sure to be a sensational week of tennis.
Madrid Open Odds – Top 25
|Madrid Open Odds||Moneyline|
|Sara Sorribes Tornio||+5000|
First Quarter: Muguruza Leads Charge
This would have been Iga Swiatek’s quarter, but with the World No.1’s withdrawal from the tournament due to a shoulder injury, No.17 seed Leylah Fernandez moves into Swiatek’s place in the draw. The opposite corner of this quarter is flanked by Spain’s Garbine Muguruza, who is seeded seventh in the tournament and is priced as one of the top contenders at +1800 to win.
Fernandez and Muguruza are on course to meet in the quarterfinals. Fernandez’s section is littered with stumbling blocks, including veteran Andrea Petkovic in the first round. Should Fernandez survive the German’s challenge, she could face Petra Kvitova (+2000) or Jil Teichman (+5000) in the R32. The R16 could see either Elena Rybakina (+1200), Katerina Siniakova, Ana Konjuh or Oceane Dodin challenge for a spot in the final eight.
Muguruza’s path to the quarterfinals begins with a first round clash against Alja Tomljanovic. In the R32, Sloane Stephens or Anhelina Kalinna could emerge while the R16 could see either Emma Raducanu (+2500), Tereza Martincova, Maria Kostyuk or Clara Tauson vie for a spot in the quarterfinals.
Second Quarter: Sakkari Headlines
World No. 5 Maria Sakkari headlines the second quarter alongside American Danielle Collins, but whether either or both reach the quarterfinals is up in the air.
Of all the quarters in the draw, this might be the most wide open. Sakkari (+1200) is 0-1 on clay this season after her preparations were derailed in the first round of the Stuttgart Open last week. Collins, in the meantime, is making her first clay-court appearance of the season – although clay isn’t her best surface.
There are several players that could benefit from this unpredictable section as a result. American hopefuls Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka are in this section. While neither is particularly adept on clay, the altitude in Madrid could be an advantage with their style of play.
Spain’s Sara Sorribes Tormo is a dangerous floater that could capitalise on both home support and a winnable quarter, however, she would have to get past Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the first round.
Czech rising sensation Linda Fruhvirtova is another player to watch here. She’s the quintessential longshot of the tournament at +30000 to win outright, but the 16-year-old has game. She could shake things up in the second quarter.
Third Quarter: Sabalenka’s Section
Aryna Sabalenka reached the final of Stuttgart but lost to Swiatek in straight sets, 6-2, 6-2. It marked her first final appearance of the season and the first tournament in which she successfully navigated a course beyond the quarterfinals. Whether that performance proves to be a springboard for the Belarusian remains to be seen.
Sabalenka headlines the third quarter alongside Karolina Pliskova, who’s still searching for form this season. Pliskova is coming off a wrist injury that saw her miss the first ocuple of months of the season.
If the draw were to fall in line with the seedings, this section should see a clash between Sabalenka and Pliskova, however, there are plenty of in-form players in this section that could turn the betting online markets in their favor.
For instance, former French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko lurks in this quarter. As well, Victoria Azarenka, rising sensation Amanda Anisimova and Romania’s Sorana Cirstea are contained within – all of which could be value underdog plays, particularly in the early match-betting markets.
Fourth Quarter: Badosa Headlines
Paula Badosa is the second seed in the tournament and she headlines the fourth quarter. The Spaniard, priced at +900 to win, falls into the same section as Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur, who is having a standout season and comes into Madrid on good form. Jabeur is priced at +2000. In a perfect world, the pair would set up a blockbuster showdown in the quarterfinals.
Before either can make it that far, they must navigate through various obstacles. Badosa is faced with a tough opener against Veronkia Kudermetova while Ons Jabeur will face Italian hopeful Jasmine Paolini.
Veteran Alize Cornet is a contender in this section, along with Czech Karolina Muchova. Arguably, the most significant threat to either Badosa or Jabeur is Belinda Bencic, who won the Charleston Open earlier this month. The Swiss is one to spot as she could emerge from this quarter.
Finally, and not least of all, Simona Halep is ensconced within this section. Halep is the bookmakers’ favorite in this star-studded field, priced at +600 at the sportsbook exchange.
The market outlook for Halep is underscored by several factors, including her undeniable clay-court prowess that culminated in a French Open title in 2018 and the recently announced partnership with Patrick Mouratoglou – the longtime coach of Serena Williams.
All these things make Halep a good bet, and yet, it’s hard to look beyond a potential R32 matchup with Badosa, which could be a stumbling block for the highly-fancied Romanian.