World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is preparing to launch her title defense campaign in Indian Wells this week. But she’s sure to face stiff competition from a loaded field that includes 19 of the top 20 players, a slew of American hopefuls and dangerous floaters spread out over the four quarters of the draw.
In this column, we preview the tournament alongside the tennis odds currently trading. Find out how the 128-strong field stacks up and where the value tennis picks are to be had before the main draw event gets underway on Wednesday. It’s worth noting that the top 32 seeds all receive a bye in the first round.
WTA BNP Paribas Open Odds
- Iga Swiatek +150
- Aryna Sabalenka +800
- Jessica Pegula +1100
- Barbora Krejcikova +1100
- Elena Rybakina +2000
- Coco Gauff +2000
- Belinda Bencic +2200
- Veronika Kudermetova +2500
- Maria Sakkari +2800
- Ons Jabeur +2800
- Carolina Garcia +2800
- Liudmila Samsonova +3000
- Karolina Pliskova +5000
- Jelena Ostapenko +5000
- Marta Kostyuk +5000
- Madison Keys +5000
- Victoria Azarenka +5000
- Marketa Vondrousova +6600
- Donna Vekic +6600
- Danielle Collins +6600
- Marie Bouzkova +6600
- Amanda Anisimova +6600
- Emma Raducanu +8000
- Karolina Muchova +8000
- Elise Mertens +8000
- Petra Kvitova +8000
- Daria Kasatkina +8000
- Beatriz Haddad-Maia +8000
- Leylah Fernandez +8000
- Paula Badosa +8000
- Bianca Andreescu +8000
- Shelby Rogers +10000
- Anastasia Potapova +10000
- Linda Noskova +10000
- Magda Linette +10000
- Camila Giorgi +10000
- Linda Fruhvirtova +10000
- Ekaterina Alexandrova +10000
- Sloane Stephens +12500
- Sofia Kenin +12500
- Alycia Parks +15000
- Petra Martic +15000
- Arina Kalinskaya +15000
- Anhelina Kalinina +15000
- Shuai Zhang +20000
First Quarter: Swiatek, Garcia on Quarterfinal Collision Course
- Top Seeds: No. 1 Swiatek, No. 5 Garcia, No. 12 Samsonova, No. 13 Haddad-Maia, No. 19 Keys, No. 20 Linette, No. 30 Fernandez, No. 32 Andreescu.
- Dangerous Floaters: Raducanu, Siniakova, Niemeier, Collins
Swiatek enters the tournament as the top favorite to win outright, priced at +150 on the tennis betting board, and underscoring her favorable odds is a relatively favorable draw as well. At least, in the early rounds as she works her way into the tournament.
The world No. 1 and defending champion opens her Indian Wells campaign against the winner of the R128 clash between Claire Liu and Alison van Uytvanck. In the second round, Swiatek could face Canada’s Bianca Andreescu, who won the title in 2020. Conversely, other possible opponents include wild-card Peyton Stearns or a qualifier.
A 2022 final rematch 👀@iga_swiatek x @mariasakkari #TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/jzCkRiUdje
— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) March 6, 2023
The highest-seeded threat in Swiatek’s path to the quarterfinals is No. 13 seed Beatriz Haddad-Maia. The Brazilian is a potential stumbling block in the R16. Alternatively, No.22 seed Madga Linette, Emma Raducanu, Danka Kovinic, Julie Niemeier, and Katerina Siniakova are other possible R16 challengers.
France’s Carolina Garcia will begin her campaign in the R64, where she’ll take on the winner of Danielle Collins versus Tamara Korpatsch. Should she overcome either of these players, the Frenchwoman will take on No.30 seed Leylah Fernandez, wild card Cathy McNally or wild-card Emma Navarro in the R32.
Things could get more daunting in the R16 for Garcia, where she could face American hopeful and No. 19 seed Madison Keys. Other possible threats at this stage could be No. 12 seed Liudmila Samsonova, Sorana Cirstea, Lucia Bonzetti or Pera Bernanda.
Second Quarter: Jabeur, Kasatkina on Quarterfinal Collision Course
- Top Seeds: No. 4 Jabeur, No. 8 Kasatkina, No. 10 Rybakina, No. 14, Azarenka, No. 21 Badosa, No. 23 Trevisan, No. 25 Martic, No. 28 Bouzkova.
- Dangerous Floaters: Muchova. Brengle, Kenin, Stephens
The second quarter of the draw looks to be wide open for various reasons. World No. 4 Ons Jabeur is coming off an injury that saw her miss the Middle East swing while world No. 8 Daria Kasatkina can blow hot and cold from tournament to tournament. As well, impacting the betting online outcome here is the fact that this section is loaded in talent and quality.
So Happy To Be Back! Thank you all for your continuous support 🙏🏼 #TennisParadise 🌴 pic.twitter.com/993Z6zer9g
— Ons Jabeur (@Ons_Jabeur) March 5, 2023
Jabeur wil face either Lauren Davis or Maryna Zanevska in the R64. Then, in the third round, No. 28 Marie Bouzkova, Marketa Vondrousova or Rebecca Manarino could challenge the Tunisian. However, the R16 could be the toughest with the potential of Victoria Azarenka emerging as a possible opponent.
Azarenka is a former Indian Wells champion and a recent semifinalist at the 2023 Australian Open. Of course, Azarenka isn’t guaranteed to reach the fourth round. Madison Brengle, Karolina Muchova and Yilia Putinseva are just some of the other players in this section that will be vying for a spot in the last 16.
Kasatkina’s corner of the second quarter is a potential minefield with reigning Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina flanking the opposite side along with former champion Paula Badosa.
The eighth-seeded Kasatkina’s first opponent is going to be either Jasmine Paolini or Tatjana Maria. The R64 could see the Russian face No. 25 seed Petra Martic or a qualifier. However, things get tricky with Rybakina, Badosa, Sofia Kenin and Sloane Stephens looming as potential R16 opponents.
Third Quarter: Pegula, Sakkari on Quarterfinal Collision Course
- Top Seeds: No. 3 Pegula, No. 7 Sakkari, No. 11 Kudermetova, No. 15 Kvitova, No. 17 Pliskova, No. 24 Ostapenko, No. 26 Potapova, No. 27 Kalinina
- Dangerous Floaters: Giorgi, Kanepi, Mandlik, Parks
No. 3 Jessica Pegula is living her best life. She’s enjoying a career-high ranking and comes into Indian Wells on solid form after reaching the semifinals of the Dubai Duty-Free Tennis Championships, where she lost to eventual champion Barbora Krejcikova.
Jessica Pegula practicing pic.twitter.com/9t61jCt3sA
— Ken mckinnon (@Kenmckinnon9) March 7, 2023
Pegula will be looking to win her second career WTA 1000 title after breaking new ground at the WTA Guadalajara Open toward the end of the 2022 WTA season. The 29-year-old American could face a R64 challenge from Camila Giorgi, who is coming off a title victory at the Merida Open Akron. The highest seeded threat in the early rounds is No. 26 Anastasia Potopova while the R16 could pit Pegula against big-hitters such as No. 15 seed Petra Kvitova, Kaia Kanepi Beand No. 24 seed Jelena Ostapenko.
No. 7 Maria Sakkari has a ton of points to defend this week as a result of her runner-up finish to Swiatek last year in Indian Wells. Her resolve will be tested right out of the gates with a potential showdown against one of two American wild cards – Katie Volynets or Shelby Rogers. Should Sakkari survive this early challenge, she could see No. 27 Anhelina Kalinina, Mayar Sherif or dangerous floater Linda Fruhvirovaa in the R32. The Czech teenager Fruhvirtova reached the R16 at the Australian Open.
In the R16, No. 11 Verionika Kudermetova and No. 17 Karolina Pliskova present the toughest obstacles on paper. However, American wild cards Ann Li and Alycia Parks will be keen to shake things up, along with Anna Blinkova and Anna Kalinskaya.
Fourth Quarter: Sabalenka, Gauff on Quarterfinal Collision Course
- Top Seeds: No. 2 Sabalenka, No. 6 Gauff, No. 9 Bencic, No. 16 Krejcikova, No. 18 Alexandrova, No. 22 Zhang, No. 29 Vekic, No. 31 Anisimova.
- Dangerous Floaters: Teichmann, Noskova, Mertens, Cornet
Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka falls into a tough fourth quarter that includes American teenager Coco Gauff and the third overall betting favorite at the sportsbook exchange, Krejcikova.
Sabalenka suffered her first loss of the 2023 WTA season at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships a fortnight ago, ironically losing to Krejcijova in the quarterfinals. What’s more, the veteran Czech would go on to win the title in Dubai, beating Swiatek in the final to the shock and awe of online sports betting fans.
Krejcikova walking on water against Swiatek 🌪️
(🎥 @wta) pic.twitter.com/jjh6nG6Cdo
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) February 26, 2023
Before Sabalenka can look toward a potential rematch against Krejcikova in the R16, she could have another dangerous veteran to contend with in the R64 – France’s Alize Cornet, who will look to advance into the R64 and face Sabalenka at the expense of Evgeniya Rodina in the first round.
No. 29 seed Donna Vekic is a potential third-round challenger that could prove tricky while No. 18 Ekaterina Alexandrova, Elise Mertens, Xiyu Wang, Anna Bondar or Dayana Yastremska are other possible R16 contenders over and above Krejcikova.
American teen Gauff leads the charge in the other half of this section. The No. 6 seed didn’t get any favors with No. 9 seed Belinda Bencic looming as a potential R16 contender. The Swiss has two titles to her credit and comes into this tournament playing some of her best tennis in a long while.
Gauff’s tournament opener will see her take on a qualifier. In the R32, Czech teenager Linda Noskova is a potential stumbling block, along with No. 31 seed Amanda Anisimova and Irina-Camelia Begu.
