WTA Finals Predictions: Sabalenka and Swiatek Lead Betting Picks
- Aryna Sabalenka is the tennis betting pick to win her first WTA Finals title and finish the year as the top-ranked player on the WTA tour.
- Iga Swiatek is trying to become the first back-to-back singles champion at the WTA Finals since Serena Williams in 2014.
- Check the latest BetUS Sportsbook tennis odds.
Ten years have passed since there has been a repeat champion at the WTA Finals. Will Iga Swiatek change that in this year’s event or will Aryna Sabalenka, listed by the tennis odds as the pre-tournament favorite, be the class of the field in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia?
The tournament will be played on hard courts once again. Sabalenka won Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open and the US Open so it is easy to understand why the BetUS sportsbook odds have her at +160 to win it all.
Ready to battle it out in Riyadh for Year-End PIF WTA World No.1 👀@SabalenkaA 🤝 @iga_swiatek #WTAFinalsRiyadh pic.twitter.com/bqtogJJ42U
— wta (@WTA) October 31, 2024
No American-born players have won the WTA Finals since Serena Williams captured the last of her five titles in 2014. Since then, Venus Williams, Sloane Stephens and Jessica Pegula have reached the title match.
Here’s a look at the tournament that starts on Tuesday with round-robin play in the Purple and Orange groups.
WTA Finals Betting Preview
1. Breaking Down the Purple Bracket
Sabalenka is the clear favorite to not only win the Purple bracket, but to take the WTA Finals title as well.
Sabalenka and No. 4 seed Jasmine Paolini (+2000 in the WTA Finals odds) have split their four previous matches. Sabalenka won a tough straight-set match in the 2023 Beijing tournament. Head-to-head stats for Sabalenka vs Paolini show that the Italian’s wins both came in straight sets.
Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina (+800) have played six times since the start of the 2023 season, with each player winning three times. Sabalenka won in a third-set tiebreaker in the most recent showdown in Madrid earlier this year.
Sabalenka is 4-0 against Qinwen Zheng with three of the matches coming in Grand Slams.
Zheng, priced at +750 in WTA tennis lines to win the WTA Finals for the first time, is 3-0 against Paolini, but Rybakina has won both of her matches versus Zheng. Rybakina is 2-2 against Paolini with the last two meetings going to a decisive third set.
Play gets underway on Saturday when Sabalenka faces Zheng followed by the match between Paolini and Rybakina.
Bet Sabalenka and Rybakina to Reach Semifinals
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2. Breaking Down the Orange Bracket
This will be the third year in a row that Swiatek and Gauff will meet in the year-end championships. Gauff won a total of eight games in those two showdowns.
Swiatek has won four matches in a row against Gauff – all of them being straight-set wins. Gauff’s lone win in the 12 previous meetings came in the 2023 Cincinnati semifinals.
Things have been a little more competitive in the head-to-head history with the other Americans in the field. Swiatek is 6-4 against Pegula. In their only meeting in 2024, Pegula stunned Swiatek in the US Open quarterfinals.
Reigning Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova is the No. 8 seed and at +3000 has the longest WTA Finals championship odds. After losing her first two meetings with Swiatek, Krejcikova won the last two matches including the final at the 2023 event in Dubai.
Krejcikova and Gauff haven’t met since the 2021 French Open quarterfinals, with Krejcikova winning 7-6, 6-3. She is 1-1 against Pegula.
When looking at the tennis betting trends, Pegula (+800) has won her last three matches against Gauff (+500). When they squared off in the 2023 WTA Finals semifinals, Pegula rolled to a 6-2, 6-1 victory. They will meet on Sunday in their first round-robin match after the Swiatek-Krejcikova match.
After an early exit from the US Open, Gauff won the title in Beijing and gave Sabalenka a scare in the semifinals at Wuhan.
🗓️ OCTOBER
🏆 Coco Gauff (Beijing WTA 1000)
🏆 Aryna Sabalenka (Wuhan WTA 1000)
🏆 Zheng Qinwen (Tokyo WTA 500) pic.twitter.com/6BqrPl3vF3— wta (@WTA) October 31, 2024
That is enough to go with Gauff to join Swiatek in the semifinals.
Bet Swiatek and Gauff to Reach Semifinals
3. Who’s No. 1?
Something to consider when making tennis predictions is that either Aryna Sabalenka or Iga Swiatek will finish the year at No. 1 in the WTA rankings.
Sabalenka can guarantee herself the final No. 1 ranking by winning three round-robin matches, winning two round-robin matches and reaching the final, or by winning at least one match in round-robin play and advancing to the final.
If Swiatek loses one round-robin match, Sabalenka only needs to win two round-robin matches to be the year-end No. 1. Two round-robin losses by Swiatek would result in Sabalenka only being required to win one match in the round-robin portion of the tournament to finish 2024 on top of the rankings.
No other player can finish at No. 1 in the year-end rankings.
Show Me The Money
The winner of the tournament could earn more than $5 million if they finish the tournament undefeated. That would include $2.5 million just for winning the final match. The amount of prize money will be determined by the record in round-robin play.
Ash Barty holds the record with $4.42 million earned during her run to the 2019 title. This year’s winner is guaranteed to top that number.
Here is the place to bet online for the WTA Finals.
Questions of the Day
What happened at the 2023 WTA Finals?
The top three seeds reached the semifinals with No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek winning the title. Laura Siegemund and Vera Zvonareva captured the women’s doubles title
How many former WTA Finals singles champions are in the 2024 field?
One. Swiatek is the only former champion in the WTA Finals singles field.
