That top-seeded Ashleigh Barty and No. 7 seed Iga Swiatek are in the semifinals of the Australia Open isn’t a stunning revelation considering that Barty had the best tennis betting odds at +250 to win the title coming into the tournament and Swiatek was the No. 3 pick at +1000.
The fact that Americans Madison Keys (+2500) and Danielle Collins (+6000) are the other semifinalists is certainly not what the oddsmakers were projecting.
Neither Keys nor Collins will be favored in their matches but if they end up winning, it would be the first time American-born women played for the women’s singles title in Australia since Serena Williams beat her sister Venus 6-4, 6-4 in the 2017 final. There have been instances where naturalized citizens played U.S. natives for the Australian Open title but the last time American-born women met in the Aussie Open final and Serena Williams wasn’t part of the match was the 1979 championship match when Barbara Jordan defeated Sharon Walsh 6-3, 6-3.
Women’s Semifinals at the Australian Open
Ashleigh Barty vs Madison Keys
Thursday, January 27, 2022, 3:30 a.m. ET, ESPN
The hard courts at the Australian Open are perfect for the 5-foot-10 Keys as evidenced by her 2015 trip to the semifinals and 2018 quarterfinal appearance. Coming into this event, Keys advanced to the semifinals in a Grand Slam event four times and on three of those occasions, it was at a hard-court tournament.
Keys is seeking to reach her first Grand Slam final since losing to fellow American Sloane Stephens in the 2017 US Open championship match. Keys hadn’t advanced past the fourth round in her last eight Grand Slam appearances.
She has a tough task ahead of her as Barty has the best odds (-4½, Moneyline of -450) to win the match.
Keys has already eliminated No. 11 seed Sofia Kenin, No. 8 seed Paula Badosa and fourth-seeded Barbora Krejcikova, all in straight sets. Keys has lost just one set in the tournament.
Surprisingly, Keys’ only WTA tour matches against Barty have come on the clay courts at the French Open with Keys winning in the first round in 2017 6-3, 6-2 and Barty returning the favor at the 2019 quarterfinals with a 6-3, 7-5 win. The only other singles match between them came in Fed Cup in 2019 with Barty winning in straight sets.
Key is coming off a win at Adelaide but didn’t face a top-15 ranked player in her five matches. Before that championship run, Keys was 2-7 since 2021 Wimbledon with match wins against players ranked 60th and 123rd. Keys entered Adelaide ranked 87th and was 51st going into the Australian Open so that will be changing in a major way.
You can call her Ash or Ashleigh but whatever name you use, call her the favorite to win her third Grand Slam singles title.
The #AO2022 women’s semifinals are set.
🇦🇺 Ash Barty v Madison Keys 🇺🇸
🇺🇸 Danielle Collins v Iga Swiatek 🇵🇱Who wins it from here? 🏆#AusOpen
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 26, 2022
Barty won the French Open in 2019 after failing to advance past the second round in five previous main-draw appearances at Roland Garros. She won Wimbledon in 2021 despite dropping two of the three tiebreakers in the tournament.
Since losing in the first round at the Olympics, Barty won two of three tournaments she entered and was 11-1 heading into Australia.
Barty hasn’t dropped a set in the tournament. Keys will be the third straight American player Barty has faced after eliminating Amanda Anisimova and Jessica Pegula.
BetUS sportsbook favors Barty at -450 to win, but Keys has a hitter’s chance to keep her dreams of a Grand Slam title alive at +350. It is hard to pick against the No. 1 player in the world playing in her native country.
Pick: Barty -450
Danielle Collins vs Iga Swiatek
Thursday, January 27, 2022, 5:30 a.m. ET ESPN
Collins started the tournament with a pair of routine wins but she had to fight in the Round of 16 to eliminate Elise Martens 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. A potential showdown with former world No. 1 Simona Halep never happened as veteran Alize Cornet stunned Halep in three sets.
After a tough first set in the quarterfinal match, Collins blew past Cornet 7-5, 6-1 to advance to her second career Australian Open semifinal. Collins’ inspiring 2019 run in Australia ended with a loss to veteran Petra Kvitova in the semifinals. Kvitova was seeded eighth while Swiatek is the seventh seed but Collins is hoping that the three years of fine-tuning her game will result in a different outcome.
Both of Collins’ career WTA titles came in 2021 as the Palermo Open and Silicon Valley Classic. There were no top-25 ranked players in those fields so this will be a different sort of test for the 28-year-old Collins.
Swiatek and Collins have played in Australia before but not at the Australian Open. Swiatek was leading 6-2, 3-0 in the 2021 Adelaide 500 quarterfinals before Collins retired.
Since winning the title in San Jose in August 2021, Collins is 3-2 against top-20 ranked players.
The 20-year-old Swiatek didn’t get past the Round of 16 in her last two Grand Slam events. However, the 2020 French Open champion was considered one of the top threats in this event.
Swiatek had to come from a set down to defeated unseeded Sorana Cirstea in the Round of 16 and also went down a set to Kaia Kanepi in the quarterfinals. Collins will be just the second-seeded player that Swiatek will face in the tournament.
Swiatek hasn’t been showing her best form in Australia so will Collins be able to dial up the power without spraying unforced errors? This is an ideal opening for Collins to make her Grand Slam finals debut.
Swiatek is the slight favorite but those who bet on tennis might want to take Collins to pull off the upset.
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