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American Gauff to Push Swiatek, Cover Spread in French Open Semis

Iga Swiatek has set a record pace at the French Open this year, winning her matches before some patrons have found their seats.

The three-time winner and world No. 1 is the commanding -800 favorite to beat American Coco Gauff, who is also playing good tennis, in the French Open semifinals.

American Gauff to Push Swiatek, Cover Spread in French Open Semis
Iga Swiatek | Foto Olimpik / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP

However, as tennis odds suggest, Swiatek is on another level as she eyes a spot in the 2024 French Open final.


Does Gauff Stand a Chance?

There is such a disparity in ability on clay courts that someone like Gauff can be a +6 game underdog against Swiatek.

Gauff is the third-best player in the world and she has played superbly throughout the tournament, yet she isn’t being given any respect in betting markets.

She got past Ons Jabeur in a hard-fought quarterfinal, losing the opening set before winning the final two sets 6-2, 6-3.

It was a gritty performance from a player who has improved on clay courts, but we’re not blind. She’s not better than Swiatek on this surface, and maybe not on any surface.

However, covering a +6 spread shouldn’t be too difficult. Gauff can lose 6-3, 6-4 and cover the spread, so it requires Swiatek to destroy her opponent.

Gauff plays with more heart than many players on the WTA Tour and we can’t see her losing a set by a big margin.

We don’t give her much chance of winning outright, but +6 is a huge margin in what could be a two-set match. It’s a line we didn’t expect, and one of our more confident tennis bets of the week.

She has lost to Swiatek 10 of 11 times, but the most recent result was a 6-4, 6-3 defeat in Rome last month.

“I’m just going in with confidence,” said Gauff, who beat Swiatek on hard courts last year. “When I played her in Cincinnati (in 2023), I didn’t go into the match thinking: ‘Oh, I’ve never beaten her before, never taken a set off of her.’ So I can’t think of past players.”



Sensational Swiatek a Dominant Force

We made a case for why Gauff could keep it close, but there is no doubt who the best player in the world is.

Swiatek is the most dominant player on the WTA Tour since Serena Williams, and she might become the best-ever female clay court player.

The 23-year-old from Poland is already a three-time French Open winner, and after dropping just two games from her last two matches, she’s well on her way to title number four.

Losing only two games in two matches is quite incredible, considering they were fourth-round and quarterfinal matches. Even Williams wasn’t that dominant at her peak so it’s tremendous to watch.

The only time Swiatek looked in danger at Roland Garros was against Naomi Osaka in the second round, but she put that three-set match behind her and got on with business.

There is incredible confidence with betting markets. She is a -800 favorite to win outright, and giving Gauff a complete set of games is tough to cover.

A -6 line hasn’t been hard for Swiatek recently, but we have to give Gauff more credit than her recent opponents. Gauff is a Grand Slam champion and she can’t be underestimated.


Gauff to Test Swiatek

Gauff might take her odds personally, and we’re hoping that she does.

The American is being given no respect at our sportsbook, but she’s much better than the odds suggest.

We’re lapping up the +6 line (-115) and money could come for Gauff to cover the spread.

We believe Swiatek will win the match, but there is little value at -800. The best value is clearly with Gauff to make a game of it, and if the first set finishes 7-5 or 7-6 to Swiatek, bettors have all but secured a win.

Gauff doesn’t give up, so take Gauff +6 as our best tennis bet of the week.



Questions Of The Day

What is the win/loss record for Gauff vs Swiatek?

Iga Swiatek has a 10-1 lifetime advantage over Coco Gauff, hence the short odds for Swiatek to win.

What are the odds for Gauff to beat Swiatek in the semifinals?

Coco Gauff is a +500 outsider to record just her second career win over world No. 1 Iga Swiatek.

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