It doesn’t get any better than a final showdown Sunday between World No. 6 Daniil Medvedev and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz. Both are Grand Slam champions, former World No. 1s, and come into this much-anticipated finale in exceptional form.
At the start of the tournament, Medvedev was singled out by the oddsmakers as the top favorite at the sportsbook exchange. Alcaraz came in as the second overall favorite.
The tables have turned since last week when the tournament got underway. As per the latest odds across sports betting markets, Alcaraz is the favorite to emerge as the champion in Indian Wells.
Will the Spanish teenage phenom come through on his favorable odds? Or will Medvedev deliver the so-called upset? As ever, we weigh in, providing an analysis along with tennis picks for your consideration.
Indian Wells Final Odds
- Point Spread: Alcaraz -½ (-120)
- Moneyline: Alcaraz -124 | Medvedev +105
- Totals: O 22½ (-105) | U 22½ (-115)
Medvedev Eyes Fourth Title In a Row
World No. 6 Medvedev is on a tear, reaching his fourth straight final in as many tournaments. The Russian is unbeaten since his title-winning run in Rotterdam last month. He’s 19-0 ahead of the ATP Indian Wells Masters final, picking up titles in Rotterdam, Qatar, and Dubai.
Medevedev entered the BNP Paribas Open as the player to beat as per the tennis betting markets. So far, so good for the fifth seed as he’s one win away from coming good on his pre-tournament tennis odds. But in an interesting twist, he goes into the final as the slight underdog, deposed as the favorite by teenage sensation World No. 2 Alcaraz.
Medevedev opened his campaign with a straight-set win over American Brandon Nakashima, 6-4, 6-3. Things got trickier in the next two rounds as he dropped a set to Ilya Ivashka, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, and to Alexander Zverev, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (5), 7-5.
In the quarterfinals, Medveded made short work of Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina, 6-3, 7-5. Then, in the semifinals, he dispatched American hopeful Frances Tiafoe in two tight sets, 7-5, 7-6 (4).
The art of court coverage, by Daniil Medvedev: @DaniilMedwed #TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/KlaLH2FPLa
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 18, 2023
Alcaraz Has No. 1 In Sight
Spanish teenager Alcaraz is a win away from his second title of the season, the third ATP Masters 1000 title of his career, and, at the same time, the summit of the ATP rankings. Only the Russian stands in his way this Sunday, though the betting online markets are skewed ever so slightly in Alcaraz’s favor.
Alcaraz reaches the final without dropping a set. He began his campaign with a 6-3, 6-3 win over Thanasi Kokkinakis in the R64 and then went on to dispatch Tallon Griekspoor 7-6 (4), 6-3 in the R32. Rising British star Jake Draper was forced to bow out of their R16 clash, down 2-6, 0-2. while Felix Auger-Aliassime ran out of ideas, losing to Alcaraz 4-6,4-6.
Arguably, Alcaraz’s stiffest test came against Jannik Sinner in the semifinals, but the 19-year-old Spaniard still managed to eke out the straight-set victory, 7-6 (4), 6-3.
CARLOS ALCARAZ IS NOT HUMAN 🤯🤯@carlosalcaraz #TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/MbuXPu1HlL
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 19, 2023
Medvedev vs Alcaraz Head-to-Head
Medvedev owns the 1-0 head-to-head edge lifetime over Alcaraz, having beaten the teen at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships 6-4, 6-1, 6-2. A lot has happened since that meeting, namely Alcaraz’s meteoric rise to the top of the game.
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Separately, both Medvedev and Alcaraz have been crowned US Open champions since then, with the former winning the coveted title in 2021 and the latter in 2022.
Medvedev vs Alcaraz Tennis Picks & Prediction
If the pre-tournament odds were any indication, it was always going to come down to either Medvedev or Alcaraz in an ideal scenario. And here we are, on the precipice of a dream top-billing finale between two very deserving potential champions.
Medvedev has the H2H edge over Alcaraz, but it’s a moot point. He’s yet to play the Spaniard in his current form.
The Russian has expended a lot of energy during the course of this tournament, going the distance in three of his five matches. That’s not including the toll of stringing together a 19-0 run over the last month, spanning three different continents.
Alcaraz is a younger and fresher player. He’s spent less time on the court and advances without dropping a set. These aspects will give him an advantage in his attempt to clinch his first-ever win over the Russians.
That said, there will be no shortage of motivation for either player. Medvedev’s sights are set on a fourth consecutive title in 2023. He is playing his best tennis. Winning Indian Wells, therefore, would be de rigueur, even if he is the slight underdog
Alcaraz’s sights are set on a third ATP Masters 1000 title of his career and the World No. 1 ranking – winning Indian Wells would see Alcaraz usurp Novak Djokovic in the Pepperstone ATP rankings on Monday. He is an undeniable talent that is already smashing records. Thus, he’s understandably the vogue tennis pick among tennis fans.
All told, this final could go either way and nobody will be surprised.