The Miami Open presented by Itau will crown a new champion on Sunday as Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev go head-to-head for the prestigious ATP Masters 1000 title. Sinner will be seeking his maiden Masters coup while Medvedev will look to win his sixth at this level.
BetUS sportsbook has rolled out a tight ATP Miami betting line with Medvedev mildly favored to win at the expense of Sinner. As ever, we weigh in on this market and provide a take on the betting for your consideration, complete with free tennis picks.
ATP Miami Open Final Odds
- Games Handicap
- Moneyline: Medvedev -116 | Sinner -105
- Total: O 22½ (-125) | U 22½ (+105)
Medvedev Through To Second Masters Final in a Row
World No. 5 Medvedev is through to his fifth-straight final, winning titles in Rotterdam, Doha, and Dubai, and then finishing runner-up to Carlos Alcaraz in Indian Wells a fortnight ago. He’s now one win away from his fourth title of the year.
Medvedev arrived in Miami as one of the pre-tournament betting online favorites to win the title, and prior to the penultimate round, he hadn’t dropped a set and only a handful of games as he dispatched opponents one by one.
Karen Khachanov was Medvedev’s first real test of the tournament, as he pushed his compatriot and good friend to the brink in a three-set marathon, 7-6 (5), 3-6, 6-3, that lasted two hours and 17 minutes. The pair grew up in the sport together and know each other’s games well. Both are solid baseliners and proficient hard court players, wowing the crowd with their absorbing long and exhaustive rallies, including a 31-shot exchange that had just about everyone on their feet.
After Medvedev took the first set in a narrow tiebreaker, Khachanov broke Medvedev’s serve early to take a 2-0 lead in the second set, which he ultimately won 6-3. Medvedev recovered in the third and deciding set, proving to be more steady than Khachanov in the pressure moments.
Excited about another final! @MiamiOpen pic.twitter.com/9rMemn9gtT
— Daniil Medvedev (@DaniilMedwed) March 31, 2023
Sinner Makes Masters Breakthrough
Sinner stormed back to defeat defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a three-set marathon on Friday night, delivering the upset across sports betting markets. The Italian’s 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 victory denied Alcaraz a chance to compete for the Sunshine Double and will end his reign at the top of the ATP rankings on Monday.
Previously, Sinner had taken the measure of Alcaraz, but, arguably, never at such a late stage of a major tournament with the final on the line. It was Alcaraz who won the previous most comparable contest, beating Sinner in straight sets, 7-6 (4), 6-3 in the Indian Wells semifinals a fortnight ago.
When Alcaraz jumped to the 1-0 lead after taking the first set in a tiebreaker, he seemed destined for another victory in his burgeoning rivalry with Sinner. But the Italian composed himself and raised the level of his game. Most importantly, he remained calm in the big moments. Especially in the third set, when he rattled off the last four games to take the win.
ONE OF THE BEST TENNIS POINTS THAT I HAVE EVER WATCHED. 🤯
JANNIK SINNER. CARLOS ALCARAZ. AGAIN.
🔥🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/m60yJGdDMs
— Olly 🎾🇬🇧 (@Olly_Tennis_) March 31, 2023
Medvedev vs Sinner Head-to-Head
Medvedev holds the 5-0 head-to-head edge over Sinner, including a 1-0 H2H edge in 2023 after beating Sinner in the Rotterdam final, 5-7, 6-2, 6-2.
Three of their five matches went the distance (to three sets) and all were played on an indoor hard court. This will be their first meeting on an outdoor hard court and with one of the biggest titles on the ATP Tour on the line.
Medvedev vs Sinner Prediction
Sinner sets up a much-anticipated final showdown with Medvedev on Sunday. The last time this pair met, Sinner took a set off Medvedev before fading in the final set.
As such, the tennis betting markets are skewed toward Medvedev – but only just. That’s because Sinner, for some time now, has been pushing the envelope and knocking on the door of greatness.
The Italian has given some of the best players on the ATP Tour headaches, including Medvedev and, even, World No. 1 and 22 Grand Slam champion, Novak Djokovic. It’s not often that a young whippersnapper shows up and is able to immediately go toe-to-toe with future legends. That he’s failed on previous attempts to make his deserved breakthrough is neither here nor there. It’s obvious that his time is coming. And it could be coming this Sunday.
