Tsitsipas Favored over Davidovich-Fokina
World No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas will take on Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina in the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters final Sunday. Tsitsipas will be eying his second-straight Monty title and second overall ATP Masters 1000 title. Davidovich-Fokina will be eyeing his maiden ATP Masters 1000 title as he reaches his first final at this level.
BetUS sportsbook has rolled out early tennis betting markets for the ATP Rolex Monte Carlo Masters final. Predictably, Tsitispas is the runaway favorite to come through with the victory while Davidovich-Fokina is the confirmed underdog.
Does the market have it right? Will Tsitsipas deliver on the high expectations reflected by the tennis odds board or will Davidovich-Fokina serve up a stunner in the Mediterranean principality?
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Final preview
Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina (+350) vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (-450)
Davidovich-Fokina advanced into the Monte-Carlo Masters final following a three-set marathon victory over Grigor Dimitrov, 6-4, 6-7(2), 6-4.
The Spaniard started brightly and took the first set 6-4. Serving for the match at 5-4 in the second set, Davidovich-Fokina lost his bottle. Dimitrov capitalized and took the second set. Dimitrov had all the momentum in the final set and took the early lead, but ADH rallied from a service break down to clinch the victory and book his place in the grand finale.
Tsisipas made short work of Alexander Zverev in the second semifinal of the day’s tennis betting card. He needed less than a couple of hours to dispatch the German 6-4, 6-2 and book his place in Sunday’s showpiece final.
Defending champ Stefanos Tsitsipas was 6-2, 5-2 up, but then had to comeback from 0-4 down in the 3rd to beat Diego Schwartzman 2-6, 7-6(3), 6-4 and reach the semifinals in Monte Carlo.
Big match tomorrow vs. Zverev. pic.twitter.com/iPhFwO9pnM
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) April 15, 2022
Last season, Tsitispas won his maiden ATP Masters 1000 title at the expense of Andrey Rublev. It was a watershed moment in his fledgling career and, equally, meaningful triumph on a personal level. Tsitsipas’ love for tennis grew from trips with his family to the Monte-Carlo Masters as a child to watch Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and others compete for this prestigious title.
Tsitsipas entered the tournament as the third-best bet to win after Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, but after both crashed out of the tournament in the R32, Tsitispas was moved to the forefront on the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters outrights as the player to beat.
In reaching the final, Tsitsipas underscored his favor but he’s one win away from pulling off the feat. Standing in his way is a young gun that is untried and untested at this level of the game.
Nobody expected Davidovich-Foklina to reach the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters. He wasn’t on anybody’s radar, going into the tournament as the +5500 longshot to win it all. And yet, he’s standing on the cusp of the final, ready to play with house money in pursuit of the biggest title of his career.
22yo Alejandro Davidovich Fokina blows a 5-3 lead in the 2nd set but then comes back from a break down in the 3rd and beats Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-7(2), 6-3 to reach his first career ATP final in Monte Carlo.
He had one top 100 win in 2022 before this week.
Quite a story. pic.twitter.com/xZOWtGtvHX
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) April 16, 2022
Tennis Betting Verdict:
The betting online market on this match isn’t surprising as it falls in line with the pre-tournament expectations and the overall ranking and experience that each player brings to the table.
Tstispas, quite correctly, is the favorite to win. He has been here before and delivered on this stage. He’s also one of several players that is being spotlighted for the upcoming French Open. Those that want to back Tsitsipas to victory could do no worse than taking the Greek on their tennis picks because he’s a high probability bet.
Davidovich-Fokina is a newcomer to the big stage. He’s defied the tennis odds to reach this prestigious final, and he’s merely one win away from pulling off an incredible week of tennis in Monte-Carlo and joining a formidable list of champions in the French principality. Whether he pulls off the feat remains to be seen. The pressure of the occasion could be greater than the 22-year-old can handle. Betting on ADH to come through is the more attractive value play, but don’t go betting the farm on it. This is a low-probability bet and not for the fainthearted.
Pick: Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina +350
For those on the fence with the match-winner markets, set betting is an alternative that can pay better dividends on occasion. This is especially true when looking at set betting markets that are irrespective of the match winner.
In this case, the set betting markets offer an outcome that is decided in two sets at -275 or three sets at +200. If both these players live to expectations, this may well be a three-set marathon. May the best player win!