ATP Rome Masters Draw Analysis & Betting Odds

Alcaraz, Nadal and Djokovic Top the Field

Spain’s teen phenom, Carlos Alcaraz, is arguably the best player on the ATP Tour. After winning his ATP Tour-leading fourth title of the season and career second Masters title on Sunday at the Mutua Madrid Open, bookmakers are installing Alcaraz as the player to beat in Rome this week.

BetUS tips Alcaraz at +300 to win the Internazionali BNL’DItalia this week. Compatriot and 21-time grand slam champion, Rafael Nadal, is jointly favored at +300 while World No.1 Novak Djokovic nips at their heels as the +350 bet.

By all accounts, this triplet represents the best bets on the tennis odds board this week. However, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, and a slew of other hopefuls will be looking to shake things up in Rome, the last Masters event before the French Open gets underway later this month.

Join us as we preview the ATP Rome Masters draw, examine the betting online markets currently trading, and highlight the value bets for tennis picks.

ATP Rome Masters Outrights – Top 25

Carlos Alcaraz +300
Rafael Nadal +300
Novak Djokovic +350
Stefanos Tsistipas +500
Alexander Zverev +1800
Andrey Rublev +2000
Casper Ruud +2200
Jannik Sinner +2800
Diego Schwartzman +3300
Felix Auger-Aliassime +5000
Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina +5000
Hubert Hurkacz +5000
Pablo Carreno-Busta +6600
Miomir Kecmanovic +6600
Cameron Norrie +6600
Reiley Opelka +6600
Marin Cilic +6600
Alex De Minaur +6600
Fabio Fognini +8000
Aslan Karatsev +8000
Sebastian Korda +8000
Denis Shapovalov +8000
Daniel Evans +10000
Filip Krajinovic +10000
Dominic Thiem +10000

First Quarter: Djokovic and Auger-Aliassime

For the second time in as many tournaments, Djokovic and Nadal fall into the same half of the draw, setting up the potential for a blockbuster semi-final showdown and a reprisal of the last year’s final that was won by Nadal.

Congratulations to Rafa. Still exciting to meet in the finals 💪🏼

Grazie mille a tutti! Thank you everyone for your support in Rome! ❤️ pic.twitter.com/6IN09QEqA1

— Novak Djokovic (@DjokerNole) May 16, 2021

Djokovic headlines the first quarter alongside No.8 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime. The World No. 1 is slated to take on the winner of Lloyd Harris vs. Aslan Karatsev in the R32. Then, he could face one of the following in the R16: Laslo Djere, Borna Coric, Stanislas Wawrinka, or Reiley Opelka.

Should the Serbian starlet survive these early challengers to reach the quarterfinals, a date with Felix Auger-Aliasime looms as a potential final eight showdown. That is, assuming the Canadian starlet navigates his corner successfully. Another scintillating scenario is a possible rematch of the stunning Monte-Carlo Masters clash between Djokovic and Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina. Djokovic would certainly love to get his revenge for that disappointing loss in the R32.

This brings us neatly to Aliassime’s corner, which is no picnic because he could face either Davidovich-Fokina or Ilya Ivashka in the R32. If he survives his tough tournament opener, he could be challenged further In the R16 by a series of clay court gurus. These are Diego Schwartzman, Miomir Kercmanovic, Alexander Bublik and Marcos Giron.

To be fair, this isn’t the best draw for Auger-Aliassime and as a result, this section of the first quarter is the likeliest to deliver a surprise quarterfinalist.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Djokovic vs Davidovich-Fokina

Second Quarter: Nadal and Ruud

Nadal lost to Alcaraz in the quartefinals of the Mutua Madrid Open, losing a topsy-turvey three-setter to his teenage compatriot before a sellout crowd at the Caja Magica.

Insofar as the result was disappointing for Nadal, it wasn’t at all surprising. He practically called it himself before the match, citing his lack of match preparation and play since March due to a rib injury. In fact, his clash with Alcaraz marked his third clay-court match of the season and first since the French Open semi-finals last year (l. to Djokovic).

Nadal, seeded third in Rome, falls into the second quarter for a stacked draw. Flanking the opposite end is fifth seed Casper Ruud of Norway.

Nadal’s opening match will be against the winner of John Isner vs Francisco Cerundolo. Then in the R16, Nadal is likely to face either Nikoloz Basilashvili, Daniel Evans, Lorenzo Sonego or Denis Shapovalov (seeded 13th)..

Ruud is slated to open his tournament against the winner of Sebastian Korda vs Botic Van de Zandeschulp. In the R16, he could face either Hubert Hurkacz (seeded 11th), veteran David Goffin, Jenson Brooksby, or wild card Flavio Cobolli.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Nadal vs Ruud

Let the celebrations begin 🍾🥳@alcarazcarlos03 | @AlexZverev | #MMOPEN pic.twitter.com/SDfnupGTWk

— ATP Tour (@atptour) May 8, 2022

Third Quarter: Tsitsipas and Rublev

Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev highlight the third quarter of the draw, which includes Italian rising star, Jannik Sinner. This section of the draw is already underway, with the first few matches played on Sunday.

No. 6 seed Rublev already knows his R32 opponent. The Russian is set to open his tournament against Filip Krajinovic. In the R16, the sixth seed could face either Fabio Fognini, Dominic Thiem, Pedro Martinez or Jannik Sinner.

Tsitsipas is coming off a disappointing loss to Alexander Zverev in the Mutua Madrid Open semifinals. That said, the Greek is enjoying a standout clay-court run with a title to show for his efforts in Monte-Carlo.

Tsitsipas’ corner of the draw is littered with stumbling blocks. He will open his tournament against the winner of Gritgor Dimitrov vs Brandon Nakashima. It goes without saying, Dimitrov presents the toughest obstacle of this pair. In the R16, Pablo Carreno-Busta (15th seed), Federico Delbnonis, Karen Kachanov or Giulio Zeppieri could emerge.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Dimitrov vs Sinner

Fourth Quarter: Zverev and Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev fall into the fourth quarter, setting up the potential of a rematch of their Mutua Madrid Open final in the Internazionali BNL D’Italia quarterfinals.

Alcaraz’s R32 opponent is already known. He will face Cristian Garin, who advanced into the second round following a straight-set win over wildcard Francesco Passaro. In the R16, Alcaraz could face Marin Cilic, Luca Nardi or Cameron Norrie.

Zverev failed to defend his Mutua Madrid Open crown, losing to Alcaraz 6-3, 6-1 in the final on Sunday. How he bounces back from his disappointment remains to be seen.

Knowing he could face Alcaraz so soon probably doesn’t help matters, but his section of the draw is relatively favorable in the early rounds. The German could face either Tallon Griekspoor or Sebastian Baez in the R32. In the R16, Dusan Lajovic, Alex De Minaur, Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Tommy Paul.