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Nadal Continues Pursuit of History

Shapovalov Up Next for Spaniard in Aussie Men's Quarterfinals

The second week of the 2022 Australian Open delivers an exciting lineup in the men’s quarterfinals, headlined by Rafael Nadal and Denis Shapovalov going head-to-head and then followed by Gael Monfils and Matteo Berrettini bringing down the curtain on Monday’s round of Australian Open betting with BetUs.

The following day brings tournament favorite Daniil Medvedev taking on Felix Auger-Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jannik Sinner colliding.

Australian Open Men’s Odds, Picks & Predictions 2022
GIUSEPPE CACACE / AFP

In this column, we breakdown all four matchups along with the tennis odds currently trading at BetUS sportsbook and serve up choice picks.

Men’s Quarterfinals at Australian Open

Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov

Monday, 10 p.m. ET

Nadal is through to the final eight of the Australian Open in stellar fashion and after dropping just one set in four matches. Karen Khachanov gave Nadal a run for his money in the third round before the Spaniard clinched the 6-3. 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 victory. In the Round of 16, Nadal dispatched veteran Frenchman Adrian Mannarino in straight sets, 7-6 (14), 6-2, 6-2.

Nadal arrived Down Under with plenty of question marks surrounding his fitness, but he quickly dispelled those by winning the ATP 250 Melbourne title. It wasn’t enough to elevate his odds to win the Australian Open, though.

Nadal began his campaign as the fourth favorite overall in online sports betting markets. His odds have improved dramatically since then – in part on the strength of his campaign and in part due to the mass exodus of seeds. As it is, Nadal is the second-best bet after Daniil Medvedev to win the Australian Open title at +240 – in what would be a historic 21st Grand Slam title should he pull off the feat.

Looking beyond the quarterfinals, though, is premature as Nadal is set to take on Shapovalov. The 22-year-old Canadian upset Nadal in their first-ever meeting at the 2017 Rogers Cup. Since then, Shapovalov has struggled against the Spaniard. He’s lost three straight matches, twice on clay and once on hard courts.

Shapovalov comes into the Australian Open riding the momentum of an ATP Cup victory over Spain with his Canadian teammates. Shapovalov’s good form carried through to Melbourne, but it hasn’t been a cakewalk. Twice he needed four sets and once five sets to clinch the victory. His R16 against Alexander Zverev was surprisingly straightforward, though, dispatching the highly fancied German in straight sets, 6-3. 7-6 (5), 6-3.

The market for this match is predictably skewed in favor of Nadal at -290. Shapovalov, meanwhile, is priced as the +240 underdog. The Canadian is a tempting bet for the upset, but to beat Nadal in the best-of-five won’t be easy.

Pick: Rafael Nadal -290

Gael Monfils vs Matteo Berrettini

Tuesday, 4:30 a.m. ET

Veteran Monfils is enjoying a standout Australian Open as he reaches the quarterfinals without dropping a set. Before arriving in Melbourne, Monfils won the Adelaide International 1 tournament, beating Khachanov in the final. It’s worth noting, he accomplished the feat without dropping a set there too.

There’s something different about Monfils this year, a seriousness to his game that was absent over the years. Monfils is massively talented but he spent the better part of his early years being the showman in the game.

Next up for Monfils is Italy’s Berrettini, who advanced into the last eight with a straight-set win over Pablo Carreno Busta, 7-5, 7-6 (4), 6-4. Berrettini was coming off a five-set marathon win over Carlos Alcaraz in the third round, so getting a solid win like that under his belt is a good sign.

Berrettini has spent a whole lot more time on court than Monfils, and that may well be a factor when this pair collides. Berrettini has the 2-0 edge over Monfils lifetime, but he’s yet to take on the updated 2.0 version of Monfils.

Bookmakers favor Berrettini to advance and set up a potential showdown with Nadal in the semifinals. However, Monfils at +165 is the choice bet here. Monfils is playing solid tennis right now, and he’s yet to put a foot wrong.

Pick: Gael Monfils +165

Daniil Medvedev vs Felix Auger Aliassime

Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET

Medvedev was elevated to the top of the tennis futures market on the heels of Novak Djokovic’s ignominious departure from the tournament and country. So far, he’s carried the weight of expectation comfortably, if not with a bit of boyish insouciance.

Medvedev reaches the quarterfinals of the Australian Open with relative ease. Although he did drop a couple of sets along the way, he never really looked threatened in those matches. He was hot and bothered a few times, though, and he wasn’t shy about showing it.

Aliassime is a bit of a tennis prodigy that many in the punditocracy are eyeing up this year for a breakthrough 2022 campaign. Aliassime teamed up with Uncle Toni – Rafael Nadal’s uncle and coach for over a decade. The partnership between Aliassime and Uncle Toni appears to be paying dividends as the 21-year-old Canadian is a more complete and confident player than he ever was before.

That said, Aliassime has had to work hard to reach the quarters. Only one match featured a straight-set win – a 6-4, 6-1, 6-1 victory over Daniel Evans in the third round. In his other matches, he went to four sets at least, including his come-from-behind win over Marin Cilic, 2-6, 7-6 (7), 6-2, 7-6 (4).

Last year, Aliassime reached the U.S. Open semis for the first time in his career. He lost that match to Medvedev in three sets , 6-4, 7-5, 6-2. Earlier this year, Aliassime lost to Medvedev 6-4, 6-0 in the ATP Cup semifinals.

In his second Grand Slam since Flushing Meadows, Aliassime gets a second crack at Medvedev. Predictably, the tennis odds are stacked against Aliassime, who has an 0-3 head-to-head record against Medvedev, and it will take something special to pull off the upset.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev -700

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jannik Sinner

Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET

Tsitsipas survived a five-set thriller against American Taylor Fritz on Monday night to book his place in the last eight. It was a topsy-turvy match for the Greek as he twice fell behind before leveling the match in the fourth set to send it into a deciding fifth set. In the end, Tsitsipas overcame Fritz to win 4-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.

It remains to be seen how well Tsitsipas rebounds from his exhausting R16 contest, but it’s bound to have taken its toll. Tsitsipas has spent a considerable amount of time on the court since sailing through his first match in straight sets. He needed four sets to overcome Sebastian Baez and Benoit Paire, respectively.

Sinner is another tennis prodigy that is catching the imagination of tennis enthusiasts. Through four rounds of the Australian Open, Sinner has dropped merely one set – to Taro Daniel in the Round of 32.

The 20-year-old Italian trails 1-2 in head-to-heads with Tsitsipas, but all three meetings were on clay. This is the first time the pair meets on a hard court, and it’s on the strength of Sinner’s game on this surface, as well as his form, that he emerges as the firm favorite to win. Tsitsipas, who ranks higher than Sinner, is the slight underdog. That’s quite the interesting market stance.

Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas +130

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