Will unseeded American Tommy Paul deliver the biggest upset of the Australian Open? If the tennis odds were any indication, the resounding answer is: No.
Novak Djokovic, the 21-time Grand Slam champion and nine-time Australian Open champion, is the prohibitive favorite across the sportsbook exchange. Right from the start of the tournament, it’s been projected as Djokovic’s title to win or lose. And true to form, he’s the runaway favorite to defeat Paul and book his place in the Australian Open final.
BetUS sportsbook pegs Djokovic as the whopping -2500 favorite of the moneyline. This means bettors will need to fork over $2500 to win a paltry $100. That’s how confident the markets are in the probability of victory for the Serbian.
On the flip side, Paul is the quintessential longshot punt with odds of +1200 (bet $100 to win $1200). The games handicap is set to 8½ games while the total is projected to 30½ with the over juiced to -105 and the under-juiced to -115.
Where are the best bets to be had? On the moneyline? Games handicap? Or total? Find out as we weigh in on this Australian Open semifinal match between Djokovic vs. Paul, examine the latest tennis odds, key storylines and serve up choice tennis picks for your consideration.
Australian Open Men’s Outrights
- Novak Djokovic -500
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +400
- Karen Khachanov +1600
- Tommy Paul +2200
Djokovic’s Title to Win or Lose
Djokovic has always been the “Chosen One” across sports betting platforms, tipped as the player to beat Down Under. That outlook hasn’t changed. On the contrary, it’s only gathered more momentum with each round.
The weekend before the Australian Open got underway, Djokovic was installed as the -130 favorite to win. Now, he’s the -500 bet (bet $500 to win $100) to lift his 10th Australian Open trophy and win a record-tying 22nd Grand Slam title.
Paul began his tournament hobnobbing in obscurity with a number of the tournament’s perceived longshots. He is still an unlikely bet to win it all, though his tennis odds have trimmed down to +2200.
Djokovic the One-Leg Wonder
Even though Djokovic was the tournament favorite, speculation about his fitness after he suffered a hamstring injury in Adelaide preceded his arrival at Melbourne Park. And the heavy bandages on his upper thigh seemed to compound those fears further. But it was all for naught.
From the Serbian’s first match, it was clear that his game wasn’t affected at all. Yes, he indulged in a few thigh massages, here and there, during his first few matches. But, for the most part, he breezed through his matches and traipsed through the rounds like a gazelle.
Djokovic barely broke into a sweat as he powered past No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 in the quarterfinals. It marked his third match of the tournament with seven or fewer games conceded and one of his most impressive wins, rendering a top player such as Rublev as a pedestrian.
The moment Djokovic took every last bit of Rublev’s soulpic.twitter.com/ji4prZyqGM
— Bastien Fachan (@BastienFachan) January 25, 2023
Paul the True Outsider
Nobody saw Paul coming when the tournament started. It’s likely Paul himself couldn’t have seen this run into the semis coming either when the draw first came out. That’s the way it is, though, the way the cookie crumbles, so to speak.
The fourth quarter of the draw burst wide open early, losing its top two seeds in the first week of the tournament. Paul, along with compatriot Ben Shelton, proved to be the immediate beneficiaries as the pair emerged into the quarterfinals.
The draw opening up the way it did isn’t Paul’s fault. He, like any other player, can only play the draw as it unfolds. Nevertheless, he deserves credit for capitalizing on the opportunity to reach his first-ever semifinal at a major. Paul defeated Shelton in four sets, 7-6 (8), 6-3, 5-7, 6-4.
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 25, 2023
Djokovic vs Paul Head-to-Head,
This is the first-ever meeting between Djokovic and Paul at an ATP Tour level event.
Djokovic vs Paul Picks and Prediction
Djokovic threw down the gauntlet in Adelaide and he hasn’t looked back since. He’s a blistering 10-0 on the season, winning 25 sets and dropping just two across two tournaments played. This is terrible news for the remaining field, as it puts the prospect of winning the Australian Open title well out of reach – theoretically and figuratively.
Paul faces an almost impossible task against a player that many regard as the greatest player of all time. If Paul gets a look-in to this match, it would be a small victory because the way the markets are stacked against him, this is shaping up to be a whitewash. As it is, it’s hard to bet against Djokovic.