Novak Djokovic’s bid for a historic 10th Australian Open title and record-tying 22nd Grand Slam title is still alive and going strong. Indeed, the Serbian’s bid looks untroubled so far as he advances with nary a challenge, despite brandishing a heavily bandaged hamstring..
Next up for the Serbian star is Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals. Predictably, Djokovic is the prohibitive favorite to win at -700 on the moneyline while Rublev is priced at +500 in the same market.
Elsewhere on the tennis odds board, the games handicap is set at 6½ and the total is projected to 35½ with the under juiced to -115 and the over to -105.
Where are the best bets to be had? On the moneyline? Games handicap? Or total? Find out as we weigh in on this Australian Open quarterfinal match between Djokovic vs Rublev, examine the latest tennis odds, key storylines and serve up choice tennis picks for your consideration.
2023 Australian Open Men’s Outrights
- Novak Djokovic -225
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +350
- Sebastian Korda +700
- Andrey Rublev +1000
- Karen Khachanov +1600
- Tommy Paul +2500
- Ben Shelton +4000
- Jiri Lehecka +5000
Djokovic Player To Beat
Right from the start, Djokovic headlined the Australian Open futures market and that hasn’t changed since the first round got underway. If anything, Djokovic has established himself as the prohibitive favorite instead, a country mile ahead of the rest of the field.
Now, Djokovic is priced at -225 to win the title, up from an opening -120 at sportsbook exchange powered by BetUS.
Rublev was severely underestimated by the oddsmakers, priced as the +6000 longshot to win the title. However, as he navigates a course into the quarterfinals, his tennis odds have trimmed down to +1000. Of the final eight, Rublev is now the fourth-best bet to win it all.
Djokovic, Can Do No Wrong
Djokovic warmed up his game in Adelaide where he won the title at the expense of American Sebastian Korda in an epic three-set final. However, in the penultimate round against Daniil Medvedev, the Serbian had picked up a hamstring injury.
It didn’t hinder Djokovci in the final. However, going into the Australian Open, speculation about his hamstring started up again. The fear was that he might be unable to sustain a campaign in the best-of-five scenario.
In hindsight, those qualms would appear to have been unnecessarily exaggerated – to the point that some in the media are now questioning the veracity of his injury.
The ‘fake’ Novak Djokovic’s injury buzz intensified at the Australian Openhttps://t.co/lVA49fQFRn
— Newsfop (@Newsfop1) January 23, 2023
Djokovic advanced through the first four rounds in relative ease, dropping just one set along the way. Although he required several medical timeouts in his first three matches, he looked utterly dominant and sublime as he skipped like a gazelle to the straight-set victory over Australian hopeful Alex De Minaur.
Rublev Survives Rune
Rublev outlasted Holger Rune in a five-set marathon 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6 (11-9) that could have easily gone either way in the final set super tiebreak.
Indeed, Rune had several cracks at it, but failed on all his match points to put away the Russian. Conversely, the Russian rallied twice in the final set. He first rallied from 5-3 down to level the match. Then he rallied from 5-0 down in the super tiebreak to win 11-9, though a let court delivered the win.
Arguably, it was one of the best and most absorbing contests of the tournament and a testament to Rublev’s dogged competitiveness. Prior to the R16, Rublev had a relatively straightforward run, dropping just one set to Emil Ruusuvuori in the R64.
Andrey Rublev comes back from 2-5 in the 5th set, saves two match points at 5-6 *15-40 and then comes back from 0-5, 2-6 and 3-7 in the match tiebreak to beat Holger Rune 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(11-9) and reach the QF at the #AusOpen
The Dane will struggle to sleep tonight pic.twitter.com/k2wWJXjLb2
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) January 23, 2023
Djokovic vs Rublev Head-to-Head
Djokovic leads the series 2-1, but the pair split their meetings last year. Rublev beat Djokovic in the final of the Serbian Open 6-2, 6-7 (4), 6-0. Djokovic leveled the score with a 6-4, 6-1 win over the Russian in the ATP Nitto World Tour Finals.
Djokovic vs Rublev Picks & prediction
Betting against Djokovic is a foolhardy exercise more often than not. Heck, even on one leg – when he’s heavily bandaged and injured – it seems that he can still beat anyone.
Rublev has taken the measure of Djokovic once, but that was when Djokovic was still rusty after missing the first few months of the 2022 season due to his inability to play while unvaccinated at certain events. The Serbian wasn’t so easy to beat later in the year when he was in top form. Indeed, the Russian barely took a handful of games off the Serbian.
Betting on Djokovic on the moneyline offers little value for your tennis picks. For those looking to back Djokovic, taking him on the games handicap is probably the best bet.
Backing Rublev for the upset is a longshot bet and not one for the faint-hearted. This isn’t to say that he can’t pull it off. On the contrary, if there is a player that could push Djokovic and test his hamstring, it’s the Russian. But, by that same token, the over 35½ is an alternative worth considering.