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No. 1 Swiatek to Overmatch Paolini in French Open Women’s Final

Iga Swiatek has been smashing her through the French Open, and as tennis odds suggest, she won’t have any trouble in the Saturday’s women’s singles final.

The Polish superstar and world No. 1 faces Italian surprise finalist Jasmine Paolini, who needs one more upset to win her first Grand Slam.

No. 1 Swiatek to Overmatch Paolini in French Open Women’s Final
Iga Swiatek | Foto Olimpik / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP

Bidding to win her third straight French Open, Swiatek has one hand on the trophy, but can she cover the -7 game spread?


Slick Swiatek is Just Too Good

It was only a matter of time before women’s tennis had another superstar and it’s Swiatek.

The four-time grand slam champion has every chance of winning double-digit slams, and that could just be at Roland Garros.

The clay court specialist owns three French Open wins in the last four years, and she’s a prohibitive favorite at -1600 to add another trophy to her cabinet.

The 23-year-old was expected to have her toughest test against Coco Gauff, but the American provided no challenge for the world’s top-ranked player.

Swiatek didn’t need to hit many winners as she forces her opponents into making errors, and that’s what Gauff did.

Similar tactics are expected against Paolini, who also forced Mirra Andreeva into making errors in her semifinal match. It could be a slower-played match, but given the quick time in which she has been winning, Swiatek could march on with a 2-0 win.

Sometimes it’s hard not to see what’s at stake and what the atmosphere is around these matches,” Swiatek said. “So still I’m not used to it. It’s not the routine. But on the other hand, when I’m really focused on work and on my tennis, I can kind of make it a routine because that’s easier way to do it.

Swiatek should win comfortably, but covering a -7 spread isn’t easy. She needs to obliterate Paolini to cover, but past matches are a good guide.

She dominated the Italian (6-2, 6-1 and 6-3, 6-0) in two previous meetings, losing only three games in each, so bettors should keep that in mind.



Paolini Seeking Another Upset

Being the underdog is something the 12th seed Paolini is used to, but she hasn’t been in this situation before.

The Italian 28-year-old was a big underdog against Elena Rybakina, who she defeated in three sets, before giving Andreeva no chance in the semifinals.

Paolini was a slight underdog in the semifinal against the Russian teenager, who we expected to win. However, she forced Andreeva into making an absurd number of unforced errors and scored a 6-3, 6-1 win.

Life will be much harder against Swiatek, who doesn’t make unforced errors. She plays defensive tennis, so it’s Paolini who will need to hit winners on center court at Roland Garros.

She has been hammered by Swiatek in two meetings, and although those came when Paolini wasn’t as good as she is now, Swiatek wasn’t as good, either.

The +800 underdog is being given no chance with our sportsbook, and it’s a fair assumption. We can’t see any aspect where Paolini isbetter than Swiatek, despite playing well to get to the final.

However, getting a +7 head start is sizable. She only needs to lose 6-3, 6-3 to cover the number, but many women’s Grand Slam finals are one sided, and this could be another to add to the list.


One-Way Traffic for Swiatek

Swiatek is the talk of the town in Paris, and she’s quickly becoming the most dominant female player ever on clay.

That’s no offense meant for Chris Evert, who scored seven French Open titles, but Swiatek is well on her way to eclipsing that total.

Paolini has played well, so we’re giving her plenty of respect. However, there is a big difference between the players she has beaten and the opponents of Swiatek.

Most of the early money has come for Paolini +7, which firmed into -115. However, Swiatek is good enough to bagel the Italian, which would be one for the ages.

Back Swiatek -7 (-115) for the best value in the French Open final.



Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.


Questions Of The Day

What is the win/loss record for Swiatek vs Paolini?

Iga Swiatek is 2-0 against Jasmine Paolini, with their first meeting coming in 2018 and their most recent in 2022.

What are the odds for Swiatek to beat Paolini in the final?

Swiatek is a -1600 favorite to beat Paolini in the 2024 French Open final, which is about the shortest favorite we have seen for a final in some time.

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