Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Preview & Odds

World No. 1, Novak Djokovic is favored to win the first clay-court Masters 1000 tournament of the season as the ATP Tour gears up for the start of the European clay-court swing which runs from April to June and culminates with the prestigious French Open.

Djokovic is set to lead a star-studded cast into the French principality that includes rising Spanish star Carlos Alcaraz and defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas among several others. It’s the Serbian’s first tournament appearance since losing to Jiri Vesely in the quarterfinals of the Dubai Open in February and just his second tournament of 2022.

Bookmakers install Djokovic as the +220 favorite on the tennis odds board to win the Monte-Carlo title, but Alcaraz comes in as a close second favorite at +250. Alcaraz is flush off a maiden Masters triumph in Miami, his second title of the season. The 18-year-old is enjoying a banner season and he’s seen as Djokovic’s biggest threat on clay.

Reigning champion Tsitsipas is a distant third bet at +500 while World No. 3, Alexander Zverev is priced as the fourth-best bet at +700. Norway’s Casper Ruud, priced at +800, is another burgeoning star in the game and he rounds out the top five best bets at the tennis exchange. Ruud is coming off a runner-up finish to Alcaraz in Miami.

World No. 2, Daniil Medvedev, 11-time Monte Carlo champion Rafael Nadal, the undisputed king of clay, and World No. 6, Matteo Berrettini are the highest profile absentees this week.

Monte Carlo Outrights

Djokovic’s Quarter

Top seed Novak Djokovic is getting no favors from the draw in Monte-Carlo as he falls into the same section as Carlos Alcaraz. The pair are on a collision course in the quarterfinals, but both will face several stiff challengers along the way.

Djokovic is set to open his campaign against Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in R32. Should he overcome the Spaniard, he could face either David Goffin, Jiri Lehecka, Roberto Bautista Agut, or Daniel Evans in the R16.

👑 HIS TIME IS NOW 👑

18-year-old @alcarazcarlos03 wins a FIRST MASTERS 1000 TITLE, defeating Ruud 7-5 6-4 to become the youngest male champion in #MiamiOpen HISTORY! pic.twitter.com/GfXf39XGOc

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 3, 2022

Djokovic is motivated to get back into the swing of things, but he knows how difficult it will be to find his rhythm early on. He said as much in his pre-tournament interview, saying “I am still testing my engine, so to say, and building my game, so it will take obviously some time, some matches to really get in the groove and find the competitive play that I really need.”

Eighth seed Carlos Alcaraz opens his bid against either Sebastian Korda or Botic van de Zandschulp. Should he overcome either burgeoning star he could face veteran Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Marin Cilic in the R16.

An Alcaraz versus Djokovic showdown in the quarterfinals would be the marquee matchup of the tournament. It’s also fair to say that the winner of that matchup would be favored to win it all.

Ruud’s Quarter

Casper Ruud enters the tournament as the fourth seed. He falls into the same quarter as Great Britain’s Cam Norrie, who is seeded seventh. Should the tournament fall in line with the draw, these stars are slated to collide in the final eight.

Ruud falls into a tricky corner with Grigor Dimitrov lurking in his section as a potential R16 opponent. Prior, he could face dangerous floater Aslan Karatsev or qualifier Holger Rune in the R32.

Norrie’s path to the quarters is littered with potential stumbling blocks. In the R32, he could face either Tallon Griekspoor or Albert Ramos-Vinolas. In the R16, he could face Poland’s No.1 Hubert Hurkacz, qualifier Hugo Dellien, France’s Ugo Humbert, or Spain’s Pedro Martinez.

Casper Ruud beat Cam Norrie in the R16 of the Miami Open. Should the pair reprise hostilities in Monte-Carlo, Ruud is likely to be favored to win and potentially set up a semi-final showdown with either Djokovic or Alcaraz.

Tsitsipas’ Quarter

Stefanos Tsitsipas’ title defense campaign is going to be tricky right from the start as the Greek could face former champion Fabio Fognini in the R32. The Italian won the title in 2019, and while his form is up and down this season, he could light up at any given moment.

In the third round, Tsitsipas could come up against American big-server Maxime Cressy, Laslo Djere from Serbia, Russia’s Ilya Ivashka, or Italy’s Lorenzo Sonego.

Flanking the opposite side of the third quarter is Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian will need to navigate a successful path through either Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti or French veteran Benoit Paire to reach the R16. Then, Aliassime could come up against Argentina’s Diego Schwartzman, Russia’s Karen Kachanov, or Hungary’s Marton Fucsovics.

The dark horse in this section is Diego Schwartzman, he has reached two clay-court finals this year. With Aliassime struggling in the last few events, Schwartzman could capitalize by advancing to the quarters.

Zverev’s Quarter

Second seed Alexander Zverev and fifth seed Andrey Rublev fall into the fourth quarter, which is wide open. Zverev and Rublev are among the top bets in tennis betting markets to win the title in Monte Carlo, however, several legitimate contenders lurk in their vicinity that could mastermind an upset or two.

Zverev who has lost his way of late isn’t immune to the upset, his opening match could see clay-court specialist Federico Delbonis or Jaume Munar squaring up to the German hopeful. In the R16, former French Open champion Stanislas Wawrinka, Kazakhstan’s Alexander Bublik, Sebastian Baez, or Pablo Carreno Busta could emerge as a challenger, any of these four could potentially surprise the second seed.

Rublev’s section features burgeoning talent Jannik Sinner of Italy as well as veteran Borna Coric. Chile’s Cristian Garin and Finland’s Emil Ruusuvuori are also in the mix. One of these quartets could represent an R16 challenger for Rublev. Prior, the Russian could face either Alex De Minaur of Australia or Bernabe Zapata Miralles in the R32.

Rublev is in fine form this season. He’s a dogged competitor that is tough to beat. He may well live up to his top five seeding and advance into the final eight. Whether he goes deeper remains to be seen.

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