Aryna Sabalenka has been primed to win a maiden Grand Slam title for some time and now she’s one win away from reaching the ultimate round of the Australian Open.
Standing in Sabalenka’s way is surprise semifinalist Madga Linette of Poland, an unseeded player that barely registered on the Australian Open odds board at the start of the tournament.
Predictably, Sabalenka is the favorite going into the semifinal matchup with Linette. BetUS sportsbook tips the Belarusian at -475 on the moneyline while Linette is priced at +375. The games handicap is set to 4½ and the game’s total is at 20½ with the over-juiced to even odds and the under to -120.
Where are the best bets to be had? On the moneyline? Games handicap? Or total? Find out as we weigh in on this Australian Open semifinal match between Sabalenka vs Linette, examine the latest tennis odds, and key storylines, and serve up choice tennis picks for your consideration.
As well explore a variety of other tennis odds here to win!
Australian Open Women’s Outrights
- Aryna Sabalenka +100
- Elena Rybakina +162
- Victoria Azarenka +450
- Madga Linette +1200
Sabalenka Player To Beat
From the start, Sabalenka figured at the top of the outrights market, the next-best bet after world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. However, with the untimely demise of the top-seeded Polish player, Sabalenka moved to the forefront of the tennis betting markets.
Linette started her campaign as one of the longshots to win the title with odds in quintuple digits. But with each passing round, her odds trimmed. Now, as one of the last four left standing, she is the +1200 bet to win it all. Still, a longshot of the group, but no longer an entirely improbable bet.
Sabalenka Dialed In
Sabalenka is off to a blistering start to the 2023 season. The 24-year-old raced to the Adelaide International 1 title a fortnight ago, winning four straight matches without dropping a set to lift her first trophy of 2023 and the first title in almost two years.
Taking that momentum to Melbourne, Sabalenka reeled off five straight wins without dropping a set. Four of her matches saw her concede five games or less, while one match – in the R16 versus Belinda Bencic – saw her concede seven games. Most recently, Sabalenka defeated Donna Vekic of Croatia in the quarterfinals, 6-3, 6-2.
— ESPN (@espn) January 25, 2023
Linette on Upset Spree
Linette is flying Poland’s flag Down Under in place of her highly regarded compatriot Swiatek. Few would have predicted such a turn of events, but here we are.
The unseeded Pole has been on a giant-slaying campaign at Melbourne Park, upsetting four seeded players in five of her matches. She took down No. 16 AnettKontaveit in the R64, beating the Estonian 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, and then dismissed No. 19 Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-3, 6-4 in the R32.
Linette kicked off the second week of her campaign with arguably her biggest scalp, a straight-set 7-6 (3), 6-4win over No. 4 seed Caroline Garcia. She backed up that upset with another against former world No. 1 and No. 30 seed Karoline Pliskova, beating the big-serving Czech 6-3, 7-5.
Is it real? Yes, it’s real, Magda Linette! 🇵🇱 pic.twitter.com/9KOw8psrXp
— Tennis Majors (@Tennis_Majors) January 25, 2023
Sabalenka vs Linette Head-to-Head
Sabalenka has the 2-0 head-to-head edge over Linette. Both wins came on a hard court and in straight-sets. She beat the Pole 6-1, 6-3 in the R16 in Tianjin (2018).
The second meeting came three years later at the 2021 Olympics, where she cruised to the 6-2, 6-1 victory in the R64.
Sabalenka vs Linette Picks and Prediction
Sabalenka is through to her fourth career Grand Slam semifinal and first at the Australian Open. She’s made three trips to the penultimate round — once at Wimbledon (2021) and twice at the US Open (2021 and 2022) —but failed in all three at the time of asking.
Sabalenka has never been in the kind of blistering form she’s enjoying right now. She’s the most in-form player behind a 9-0 start on the season, which includes a run of 18 straight sets won, too. Nerves have plagued the Belarusian in the past, and that tendency could potentially rear its ugly head again. Thus, giving Linette some wiggle room for the upset.
And yet, one has to consider Linette is likely to be feeling a touch nerves as well. After all, she is making her first foray into the semis of a Grand Slam. This is uncharted territory for the Pole.
As far as stories go, Linette’s Cinderella run is a captivating one. Who doesn’t like a good fairytale story? But when push comes to shove, the experience can be deciding. And that’s something Sabalenka has the advantage over her opponent.
Back Sabalenka to come through with the straight-set win and advance to her first-ever Grand Slam final.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.