Aryna Sabalenka emerges as the top bet to win the Australian Open title following a scintillating Round of 16 that shook up the draw further and saw more top seeds head toward the exit door. The latest of which was Caroline Garcia, who was upset by Magda Linette of Poland in the R16.
Sabalenka will take on veteran Donna Vekic for a spot in the semifinals, and true to the overarching tennis betting markets, the Belarusian is the firm favorite.
BetUS sportsbook installed Sabalenka as the -375 favorite on the moneyline while Vekici is priced at +315. The games handicap is projected to 4½ while the total is up 20 ½ games with the over and under juiced to -110, respectively.
Where are the best bets to be had? On the moneyline? Games handicap? Or total? Find out as we weigh in on this Australian Open quarterfinal match between Sabalenka vs Vekic, examine the latest tennis odds, key storylines and serve up choice tennis picks for your consideration.
2023 Australian Open Women’s Outrights
- Aryna Sabalenka +225
- Jessica Pegula +275
- Elena Rybakina +275
- Karolina Pliskova +900
- Jelena Ostapenkoa +1100
- Victoria Azarenka +1200
- Donna Vekic +1200
- Magda Linette +1800
Sabalenka, Vekic Tennis Outrights Overview
Sabalenka entered the Australian Open market as the second-best bet priced at +700. Only world No. 1 Iga Swiatek was priced shorter at +200 when bookmakers went to press initially.
Now, with the top seed Swiatek out of the tournament, Sabalenka moves to the top of the tennis betting board to spot with a price tag of +225.
However, she faces stiff competition from American Jessica Pegula and 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, both of which are priced at +275, for a run at the title.
Vekic took the long road to the top of the tennis odds board. She began the tournament as a far-flung +10000 bet. Today, she is priced at +1200. She is still one of the long shots of the tournament, however.
Sabalenka on a Roll
Sabalenka burst out of the gates by winning the title in Adelaide at the start. She’s carried the momentum into Melbourne Park, where she is through to the quarterfinals without dropping a set. As well, in the first three rounds of her campaign, she dropped no more than five games to her opponents.
In the R16, Sabalenka faced her first real test of the tournament against Belinda Bencic. The Swiss was in top form and took it to the No. 5 seed, especially in the first set. But Sabalenka was too good and eventually clinched the win in straight sets, 7-5. 6-2.
Make it back-to-back Grand Slam quarterfinals for Aryna Sabalenka 💪 pic.twitter.com/sKgXBzexVP
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) January 23, 2023
Vekic on Form
Nobody had Vekic on their radar at the start of the tournament, but the Croatian has navigated a successful course in the final eight.
Admittedly, she hasn’t faced any top-10 players up to this point, – the highest-seeded opponent thus far was Liudmila Samsonova in the R64, a match that Vekic won impressively 6-3, 6-0.
In the R16, Vekic was tested by up-and-comer Linda Fruhvirtova of the Czech Republic. The 17-year-old Czech took a set off Vekic before the Croatian battled back to win, 6-2, 1-6, 6-3.
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 23, 2023
Sabalenka vs Vekic Head-to-Head
Vekic has the 5-1 head-to-head edge over Sabalenka, a run of form that includes winning two straight. Most recently, Vekic beat Sabalenka in the quarterfinals at San Diego, 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-1 toward the end of last season. She also beat the Belarusian in the R32 of the 2021 Olympic Games, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (3).
All five of their matches were played on hard courts and the only win for Sabalanka came in 2019 in San Jose, when she beat Vekic 6-4, 6-3 in the semifinals.
Sabalenka vs Vekic Picks & Prediction
Sabalenka looks like the legitimate favorite for the Australian Open and she’s playing with the kind of confidence that has been absent from her game in recent years. Vekic, on the other hand, is a wily veteran. She has the confidence of a big head-to-head lead over Sabalenka. What’s more, she believes she can beat anyone right now.
Sabalenka might feel like the smart bet, but Vekic is a value bet for tennis picks. In lieu of a particular favorite, bettors will be better served looking at the total here. The way both of these ladies are playing, one expects this to be a hard-fought match that could go the distance.