There are doubts over whether the Top Three — consisting of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer — are as good as they used to be.
Online betting markets have shown trepidation with bettors looking elsewhere for value. However, we look at how each player is traveling as the finals approach.
There has also been a huge market move for Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is now on the second line of betting, ahead of top-seeded Djokovic.
Is Nadal Still King?
Nadal is the undisputed King of Clay and one of the best players of all time. However, why is there concern in betting markets?
Not only was Nadal given the No. 3 seed for the tournament, which came as a shock, but he isn’t as short as expected in the tennis betting markets.
Odds of -140 for a player with Nadal’s credentials are good shopping provided he hasn’t lost his edge. He got through his opening round match against Alex Popyrin in straight sets as he set out to defend his title.
The longest player introduction ever 😂
🎥: @rolandgarros | @RafaelNadal pic.twitter.com/g3s5VsAC6A
— ATP Tour (@atptour) June 1, 2021
Conditions are different than in 2020 due to the schedule change. It’s much warmer in June, but Nadal believes it benefits every player.
“Of course the conditions of last year for me at the end have been good because I won. That’s the thing, no?” Nadal told The Guardian.
“But that’s past. This year, we come back to a normal date. So, yeah, warm conditions. I think for everybody is much more comfortable to play under these conditions than in the other ones. That’s what we are used to play here in Roland Garros. Yeah, I am happy for that.”
He’s still the man to beat and although we expected closer to -200 odds instead of -140, bettors can welcome the value with open arms.
Novak Replaced By Tsitsipas
Novak Djokovic is the top seed for a reason and although he’s no longer the second favorite, he shouldn’t be overlooked.
The Serbian has stunningly shifted to the third line of betting after a serious betting plunge was placed on Stefanos Tsitsipas. In contrast, Djokovic was pushed to +400 despite breezing through his first-round opponent.
The 18-time Grand Slam winner defeated Tennys Sandgren 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 in what was a one-sided affair. It should give bettors confidence moving through the rounds and into the finals. However, is there cause for concern with bookmakers?
Djokovic is the clear second pick behind Nadal for most, but the move on Tsitsipas is noteworthy. The Greek survived a first-set tiebreak to beat Jeremy Chardy in straight sets and he ended the match with a 6-1 third set.
We suspect the money has come for the 22-year-old based on his Lyon Open win. He scored a straight-sets win over Cameron Norrie in the final, but the top seeds weren’t at the tournament.
He had previously lost to Djokovic in the quarters at the Italian Open, but someone has put their confidence in the youngster.
Fed Express Not Done
Expectations are tapered with Federer, but we’re hoping for a fairytale at Roland Garros and he has the ability to pull it off.
Federer has played only a handful of matches this year due to surgery. He was a beaten quarterfinalist at the Qatar Open in March before losing in the Round of 16 at the Geneva Open in his native homeland.
Yes, 39-year-olds don’t win Grand Slams, but Federer is keeping the dream alive. He cruised past his first-round opponent with his usual style and grace, so anything is possible.
Jumping into the new week🤩🐰🪄 pic.twitter.com/1zgWHTRbI3
— Roger Federer (@rogerfederer) May 30, 2021
The real test comes when he has to battle a quality opponent in the Paris sun, but until then he’s one player to watch.
He faces Marin Cilic in the second round and if he gets past the Croat, his odds of +6600 will firm considerably.
“I’m very happy. It was a good performance. I just felt overall much clearer, much better than I did in Geneva,” Federer told the BBC.
“In a way I like this situation, that I don’t know what’s next, how my next match will be. I take it round by round, match by match. I think it’s going to help me, with the way I go about it.”
His odds are well worth taking, and we rate him a +2500 chance.
