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We’re Keen on Rybakina: No. 4 Seed to Advance to French Open Semis

The French Open quarterfinals are in full swing at Roland Garros and we look at Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine Paolini.

Rybakina is the more notable player, and tennis odds have her at -330 to win outright and -4½ with spread markets.

We’re Keen on Rybakina: No. 4 Seed to Advance to French Open Semis
Kazakhstan's Elena Rybakina / Bertrand GUAY / AFP

Paolini has been a great bet in 2024, so the underdog could offer bettors with value French Open odds.


Paolini Pulling Out the Stops

Despite being a 28-year-old, Paolini is a relative newcomer to the elite tennis scene.

The Italian is making a deep run at the French Open. She has had her struggles in the tournament, but she has prevailed so far.

Her third-round match required plenty of heart when beating Grand Slam winner Bianca Andreescu. After losing the second set, Paolini rebounded with a 6-0 win in the decisive set.

I think I believe more in myself. Of course, winning a lot more matches in the past two years helps. Believing has been the key, letting me step up to find this higher level,” Paolini said following the win.



Paolini rallied from a set down against Elina Avanesyan to lose only one game in her final two sets in the fourth round. It was a great victory, and it showed she’s good enough to compete at the top level.

However, she has yet to face anyone as good as Rybakina, who is the fourth seed in the 2024 French Open.

Paolini is riding the wave of her best career ranking, and the 12th seed has a chance of keeping it close.

She is a +4½ game underdog, which could move to +5 on game day. She might have met her match in Rybakina, and bettors should look at her Fed Cup record as a guide against the better players.

Paolini went 8-13 in the Fed Cup, so she could struggle to win her quarterfinal.


Title Hopes Remain with Rybakina

Only one player in this match has ambitions of winning the French Open, and that’s Rybakina.

The 24-year-old is a Grand Slam champion, and her class and experience at the top level sets her apart from Paolini.

She has yet to drop a set in the tournament, including wins over Elina Svitolina and Elise Mertens. They are formidable opponents, so the fourth seed hasn’t had an easy run to the finals.

Svitolina is always a tough match, and Rybakina was happy to get through it.

“Really happy with the performance,” Rybakina said. “She is a great fighter. It’s difficult to beat her.

I am really proud of how I have improved in the last few years.”

Always in the top four picks to win a tournament, Rybakina is used to going deep in a tournament and that pleases bettors.

Bettors always get a good run for their money, and we’re not surprised to see confidence for her in betting markets. The -4½ line has been backed into -115, so there is plenty of confidence.


Rybakina to Cover Match Handicap

We can’t look past the class of Rybakina, who should have too much ability for Paolini to handle.

She has been to the top level of the WTA, and Paolini is still rising the ranks, so there is a class difference.

Given Rybakina’s experience of winning a Grand Slam and her excellent form throughout the 2024 French Open, we’re backing Rybakina to win comfortably.

Take Rybakina -4½ (-120) before the line moves. Given the early online betting action for the favorite, she could firm closer to start time.



Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.


Questions of the Day

What are the odds for Rybakina vs Paolini?

Elena Rybakina is a -330 favorite in her quarterfinal match against Jasmine Paolini, who is a +240 underdog at Roland Garros.

What is the head-to-head record of Rybakina vs Paolini?

Elena Rybakina holds a 2-1 advantage over Jasmine Paolini, and she’s 2-0 on clay courts, including a three-set win in April.

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