WTA BNP Paribas Final – Rybakina vs Sabalenka

Australian Open Final Rematch in the California Desert

· Mar 18 - 4 minutes read

It’s a rematch of the Australian Open final as World No. 10 Elena Rybakina and World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka collide for the second time in a final this season. This time, it’s to decide the BNP Paribas Open title as they go head-to-head at Indian Wells on Saturday.

Tennis betting markets are in full swing with Sabalenka edging Rybakina so slightly on the tennis odds board. Sabalenka beat Rybakina to win her maiden Grand Slam title Down Under.

Kazakhstan's Elena Rybakina | Frederic j. brown / afp

Will Sabalenka come through as the favorite? Or will Rybakina deny the Belarusian to claim the coveted title in the Californian desert? It’s a toss-up for tennis picks.

We dive into this matchup, analyze the betting online odds and serve up choice betting tips and free tennis picks for your consideration.

BNP Paribas Open Final Odds

Point Spreads – Sabalenka -2½ (-110)
Moneyline: Rybakina +135 |Sabalenka -155
Totals: O 22½ (-105) | U 22½ (-115)

Rybakina Upsets Swiatek

World No. 10 and reigning Wimbledon champion Rybakina is through to the Indian Wells final, delivering the stunning upset over World No. 1 and defending Indian Wells champion Iga Swiatek in the semifinals on Friday. The 23-year-old Kazah upset Swiatek in straight sets, 6-2, 6-2.

Rybakina’s path to the final was riddled with stumbling blocks. She didn’t always play her best tennis, but she persevered nonetheless.

Her campaign began in the R64 against American Sofia Kenin, who pushed her to the brink in a tight 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5) victory. Then, in the R32, Rybakina overcame former Indian Wells champion Paula Badosa 6-3, 7-5.

After a straightforward 6-3. 6-0 win over Varvara Gracheva in the R16, Karolina Muchova gave Rybakina her toughest contest. The Czech took a set off Rybakina before she eked out the 7-6 (4), 2-6, 6-4 win.

Swiatek was the tournament favorite and the player to beat according to the sports betting markets. Rybakina, however, didn’t appear to get the memo. She dominated the 21-year-old Pole right from the start, dropping just four games in the comprehensive victory.

Another straight sets win over the World No.1 in 2023 👏

Elena Rybakina drops 4 games to Swiatek, knocking out the defending champion!#TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/53AtdT6Mdd

— wta (@WTA) March 18, 2023

Sabalenka Soars

World No. 2 and reigning Australian Open champion Sabalenka is enjoying a banner season and takes an 18-1 record and two titles on the season into the final of the BNP Paribas Open. She reaches the final of Indian Wells, dropping just one set through five matches.

The Belarussian kicked off her campaign with a routine 6-2, 6-0 win over Evgeniya Rodina in the R64. She then got a walkover in the R32 when Lesia Tsurenko withdrew from the tournament.

Sabalenka’s toughest test came in the R16 against Barbora Krejcikova, but the Belarussian recovered to beat the Czech in three sets, 6-3, 2-6, 6-4.

She then took care of American Coco Gauff in a resounding 6-4, 6-0 win in the quarterfinals. Similarly, she dismissed Maria Sakkari 6-2, 6-3 in the semifinals..

Aryna Sabalenka: “I’m not that good at tennis” 😆 pic.twitter.com/um0HexMwXt

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) March 18, 2023

Rybakina vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head Series

Sabalenka takes a 4-0 head-to-head edge over Rybakina into the final of the BNP Paribas Open. This includes a 1-0 H2H edge in 2023 after she beat the Kazakh 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the Australian Open final.

In four matches, the pair have gone the distance with Rybakina taking a set off Sabalenka in all of their meetings.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka Picks and Prediction

Rybakina will be buoyed by her upset over Swiatek in the semifinals. But she faces an uphill battle against Sabalenka who is playing at another level this season. The Belarusian is finally playing at her full potential and she looks unstoppable.

On paper, there’s little to separate between this statuesque pair. Both have big serves, powerful groundstrokes and can hit winners from all angles. They’re athletic and tend to play a similar attacking game. There’s a reason why every single match between them has gone to three sets.

All told, this is a total toss up for tennis picks. Sabalenka is quite rightly favored, but Rybakina can’t be underestimated. Put simply, should Rybakina finally get into the win column, few would be surprised.

BET THIS PICK: Elena Rybakina +135

BET THIS PICK:Over 22 ½ (-105)