Champions League Picks Round of 16 | Soccer Predictions, UCL Odds & Free Tips Part 2

Flash:

So please join us tomorrow when we have the Europa League Show and remember them fixtures are on Thursday. But let’s worry about Thursday tomorrow. Today, I have the queen of Sierra A, which is great, because there’s a great Italian contingent in this, and I’ve got award winning owner of We Love Betting in Mark O’Haire, he’ll be covering obviously the Premier League sides. A lot of big, big sides. But I’m going to come to the queen first, because these Italian sides, they normally hit form Mina, and how exciting is it to now have the knockout rounds?

Mina:

Yeah, I think it’s going to be exciting. I’m actually the most… the team I’m most excited to watch is Sporting coming into this match, just because I’m in love with their coach, but obviously I think the most tantalizing prospects to watch this week will of course be the big match in San Siro, between Inter and Liverpool. When the draw-

Flash:

You think that’s bigger than PSG’s?

Mina:

Actually, you’re right. I don’t know. Obviously because I support an Italian side… no. But PSG-Real Madrid, I would say is a bigger matchup. You see, if everyone agreed to the Super League, we could see many more of these. But anyway, moving on from that topic, as you all [crosstalk 00:02:47]-

Flash:

Why would you throw that in? We’re one and a half minutes in and you’ve thrown in a Super League. Oh my God, that’s so… no please, let’s not go down that road.

Mina:

But I do think that obviously we do have two real great matchups. I think they’re actually all very interesting games going forward, just because of the different ideologies. But I wonder what’s going to happen. I was interested to see what Sergio Ramos could do, but he won’t be involved in that matchup. As for Liverpool-Inter, I do think it’s funny that Klopp hasn’t been to San Siro for nearly all his life, and then he gets to go twice to face two Milanese giants, in one season. So I think it’s going to be an exciting week. But is it going to be predictable? That’s the question.

Flash:

I’m not so sure Mark O’Haire, because I always think that the first leg is just half time, so teams can be a little bit cagey, but we’ve got a couple of underdogs here who are kicking off at home. So I think we might see them come out the traps early. Over obviously 180 minutes, it’s going to be very, very difficult for them, but they are there on merit. Let’s talk about Sporting. Sporting are scoring goals, home, away, threes and fours. Do you think they’ll score against Man City?

Mark O’Haire:

Big, big task. I think the big narrative around Sporting at the moment is basically at the start of the tournament, I don’t know if you remember on Matchday 1, we talked about Sporting’s game, and they were playing Ajax, and I talked up Ruben Amorim, and I talked up Sporting as a potential outsider in the pool, and they got absolutely smashed. And he was criticized a lot in the Portuguese press for going too gung ho into the Champions League, trying to take the domestic form onto the European stage, and it didn’t work and they got sliced and diced. And I think it’s fascinating to see how they do set up against Man City, because if they do go gung ho again, they could easily get sliced and diced again, because City are that good. I think right now, City are the best team on the planet, but obviously that doesn’t guarantee that the Champions League title, so I think it’s really interesting to see how they do set up, because also now no away goals rule anymore either.

Mark O’Haire:

So does that mean home teams are going to be more adventurous? Does it mean away teams will be more pragmatic in their approach and conservative and wait for the second leg? So many questions unanswered, really. So we can only speculate at the moment, but I’d be surprised if Sporting do go a little bit too offensively against City, because the risk/reward is probably a bit too in favor of the risk.

Flash:

Yeah, we have four fixtures over Tuesday and Wednesday, two each night, and then next Monday we’ll get the other eight teams, and again it will be two fixtures on the Tuesday, two fixtures on the Wednesday. Mark O’Haire just a quick one though, so that if no away goal, does that mean that we still have extra time and penalties?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, still extra time and penalties, it just means no away goals. So we’ve had a few classics down the year, in terms of second legs when away goal rules have kept ties in the balance and stuff, but yeah, I’m a bit disappointed by the rule, but I know many are in favor of it and saying it’s quite archaic, but I think it negates a bit more of that tension and extra stress which we love as neutrals.

Flash:

Yeah, I think it suits your teams Mina, the Italians. I think the away goal rule will getting abandoned, I think that will play into the Italians and they may well win a couple of ties on penalties.

Mina:

Oh, I don’t know, because frankly speaking, I don’t think Inter have any sort of chance against Liverpool. And for me, I think there is something to be said about scoring a goal at Anfield, in front of that crowd. I think there’s something to be said about certain… I don’t know, theaters, certain amazing places to go and difficult to go. I think San Siro is a difficult stadium. Of course, it would’ve been nicer if perhaps we believed a little bit more in Inter or Milan who went out at the group stages, but I do think scoring goals in these places are somewhat much more difficult than it is scoring, I don’t know, in Juventus’ stadium, as an example. So I don’t particularly like the rule, but I also understand the argument against it.

Mina:

But with Sporting, what I do want to mention is that I know that he got panned for what he did, Amorim, and I’m always going to defend him, but I think that he gave his team a psychological edge. Because by trusting his team to be a little bit naïve, he gave them the tools to believe in themselves going forward in an attack-wise, and eventually he will learn to be more pragmatic and the team will, but he got to qualify and he got to play Manchester City, and frankly, do you really put it past them to score a goal against Pep Guardiola’s men?

Flash:

No, I don’t. Listen, we’re going to get to that game. That’s going to be game number two. Let’s kick off, because we’re going to go on Valentine’s Day, we’re going to go the romantic city of Europe, we’re going to go to Paris where PSG take on Real Madrid. Let me tell you now, Real Madrid are +1,600 to lift the Champions League. If they get through this over two legs, they will be around +700. So if you fancy Real Madrid, get involved early on, because it’s PSG at +100. Is that a gift or a trap? I couldn’t trust PSG. Real Madrid are +265, which is massive and a double chance, which means Real Madrid plus half, is at -120. The draw is at +280. The under/over goals is three with the underdog being the over at +105. Mark O’Haire, I’ll come to you first, because we’ve got Real Madrid potentially without Benzema, and we’ve got PSG without a whole host stars.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, a fascinating game, this is. It’s probably the one out of the four games this midweek I found the trickiest to try and unpack and find an angle I really wanted to hang my hat on. I think, immediately when I look at that price, I think Real Madrid is slightly underrated, but you need to give PSG a bit of respect. Their record in Le Parc des Princes in Champions League is very strong, obviously turned over Man City earlier in the season. I know they weren’t fantastic in that game, but they still got the victory, and I have started seeing a few signs that they might be starting to find a bit of a tune as a collective, really. You’ve got two really attacking fullbacks, who have got plenty of energy. You’ve got quite a workman-like midfield, but Verratti in there, being available to link the play, and upfront, I actually think Neymar being missing or not being 100%, might be a blessing in disguise, because Angel Di Maria might fit in there, and at least gives a bit more defensive work in when their possession if turned over.

Mark O’Haire:

But they’re still a team with flaws, and obviously relies for Real Madrid on Karim Benzema. He did train on Monday, ahead of the game, so I do expect him to play. They missed his presence against Villa Real at the weekend. He’s not just a finisher. He’s a very intelligent link-up play. Defensively as well, I think they should be at full strength, Alaba, Militao, Mendy and Carvajal, so I look at Real Madrid and we talk about the away goals rule and I think, what are they going to Paris to try and achieve? Well surely it’s just to stay in the tie and make sure they get back to the Bernabeu without a defeat.

Mark O’Haire:

So I wouldn’t be too surprised if they try to be a bit more conservative than they might normally would, and I think from PSG’s perspective, it’s all or nothing, really. They have to go out and try and win this match. So I find it difficult. I just thought that goal line was set a little bit too high. I had it more of about a two and three quarter goal line set, so I think under three goals set around… what was it? -125, -120?

Mark O’Haire:

You require four goals to see your bet lose. And this is, at the end of the day, our first leg knockout tie, between two teams with a huge amount of respect, pretty much at full strength in defense, so I just wonder whether pragmatism might win the day here. The only other angle I was thinking of, or considering really, I didn’t see prices, but Daniele Orsato is the referee. The quite experienced Italian, who loves the card, he gives out plenty of them. And he’s had four group stage games so far this season, and he’s given 23 cards. He had three knockout ties in the Champions League last season, he gave 17 cards. Over his 50 continental games, Champions League and Europa League, he’s averaging close to 4.7 cards per game. So if you can get a price on both teams to collect two or more cards at around -120, I think that’s a reasonable angle to take as well.

Flash:

And obviously PSG to get the most cards, you think? They’ll be a little bit more physical than the visitors. The visitors are going to have Kroos, Modric, Casemiro, they’re going to control the game. Surely Mina, it’s up to the hosts to try and upset Real Madrid.

Mina:

Yeah, so here’s what it is. There have been some question marks about Real Madrid’s recent form, they haven’t been producing, but obviously a lot of that is dependent on the fact that Karim Benzema hasn’t been available for them. And then hopefully that he will be available for them in this match. But what I like about Real Madrid is that they are a side comfortable in possession and out of possession. They are so intelligent in the way that they close passages of play for the opponent, they make it so difficult. And that midfield contributes all over to the pitch. Defensively, it just shuts down all avenues to goal like I said, I think tactically they’re so smart in how they position themselves, and obviously going forward, we know that they know how to deliver pinpoint passes and allow for attacking thrusts of play.

Mina:

And when you combine that with Karim Benzema’s intelligence upfront, I genuinely don’t believe any side is as experienced really, when it comes to controlling matches as Real Madrid are, even with the fact that they’ve lost some key members in Ronaldo, obviously Sergio Ramos, each year somebody great goes. But for me, I don’t trust PSG. I’m still yet to really understand their tactical identity. There’s been a lot of criticism in the French press on Mauricio Pochettino and what it is that he is trying to actually do. Yes, there’s been some wins, but again, who are they facing? These aren’t top challenges. And it’s remarkable when people say, “Well, they haven’t lost since December.” That’s because they [inaudible 00:12:38] the European teams. So for me, I still look at this side and think they are top heavy, I’m not sure what that midfield can do, and whether or not they can handle the pressure. Because even Verratti with his wonderful feet, he is not somebody I trust if he is on a yellow card or to not just blow his lid and do something stupid. So I worry about that.

Mina:

I worry about Kimpembe, I worry about what the front three can do, and I always trust a secure midfield. So for me I see three goals, I don’t think Real Madrid care too much if they lose this one because they think they can do something special on the Bernabeu, and especially when Karim Benzema’s back to top form, but I will always say to you, my bet is on Real Madrid winning the tie, and not necessarily this first leg.

Flash:

Okay, and the tie being both legs, by the way. I don’t see Real Madrid getting beaten in this game, so I think the double chance around the -120 is the way to go. I also it being slow maybe first half, so I’m just going to have a quick look now, because if you go over to betus.com, look at the alternative lines, look at the halftime lines, the draw at halftime is a massive +125, and you could see 1-1 at halftime, you could see nil-nil at halftime. I think the value is all with Real Madrid controlling the game, staying in the game and with Ancelotti, you know that they’re going to be so well prepared, and obviously it’s going to play into their hands if they drop deep and they can make the game as long as possible, because you’ve got the pace of obviously Vini Jr. on there as well.

Flash:

So let’s have a little look at the official soccer pick for the first game in Paris. It’s PSG versus Real Madrid. Now, Madrid to qualify over the two legs at +105, looks like a good one for Mina, under three goals, so listen, it just doesn’t get paid if there’s four goals. He loses money if there’s four goals. I don’t see four goals in a first leg tie against anybody to be honest, especially these two matched up. So it’s for me it’s Madrid, basically double chance -120 over the 90 minutes, and draw halftime, that +125, and if you flick over, Mina has got another one as well, and it’s both teams to score and over two and a half goals at -110. So for that to come in, well, just as long as we get the draw at halftime. A nice little 1-1 for Mina. 2-1 for Madrid and then Mark O’Haire is not losing a bean.

Flash:

Okay, so that’s probably the biggest. Now, the most intriguing game, if you’re anti favorite or you want to be like I am, with the underdog, is we’re off to Lisbon. It’s Sporting versus Manchester City. Sporting are at +1,000, and they’re getting a goal and a half start, and it’s still a plus money at +100. Man City -330. The under over three seems to me about right, but the over three is massive at +110, and Sporting have been known to be involved in games that maybe have five, six goals. The draw is at +455. Mina, I’m going to come to you first because Sporting over half a goal in the game is at -115.

Mina:

Yeah, I definitely… here’s the thing. I understand that Manchester City are wonderful when it comes to their domestic form in terms of defense. They have managed to keep clean sheets, they are very good at the back. But in Europe, I feel like when they face somewhat more unpredictable teams and when they haven’t started as accurately, there’s been problems and they have conceded, as we’ve seen. So, considering Sporting Lisbon and the way that they do play their sports, I do feel like they take chances. And I’m sure one of them is bound to go in, considering the way that Manchester City plays their football. I think that it’s going to be naïve, so obviously I would also bet on Manchester City to win this, because they are the more experienced team, they have the better technical players, but there is so much quality in this side.

Mina:

Ruben Amorim is, I think is somebody who can really produce something on a tactical level. He encourage his side on a psychological level, and if they get their star man, Pote, available and able to play, then I think they can do something special. But obviously we know that they concede a lot of games, and we know that Manchester City rested a few players, so they’ll probably have a lot of energy here to win this match. I’m looking at around a 2-1, but I cannot see a clean sheet for Manchester City, almost ever in when it comes to European competition, just because Guardiola does have a way of always overthinking these matches, and he likes fluid play and that sometimes leaves gaps at the back.

Flash:

Yeah, and that’s the one leaving gaps at the back, Mark O’Haire, because it’s a no-brainer surely, that you fancy that the home side who are a giant in their league and who score plenty, plenty goals, and definitely not a goal-shy side, look at that over half a goal in 90 minutes is -115. That’s just worth a unit on its own.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I’m probably going to go against the grain here. I know a lot of people in the chat are talking up Sporting’s opportunities to score goals as well, so I’m probably going to be a lone wolf here, but I’ve seen them a lot this season, and they’ve certainly not been at the same standard as they were last year when they were so domineering, after he arrived from Braga. The turnaround in fortune Sporting achieved under Ruben Amorim has been quite remarkable really. You can look at what Thomas Tuchel did with Chelsea overnight, and it was very similar with what he did after he arrived from Braga and for a Sporting team who have always been the third wheel in the big three, without really consistently putting it together, to suddenly turn into a dominant force in Portugal, is genuinely quite fascinating, really.

Mark O’Haire:

And I thought they played really, really well actually, in the first half away at Porta on Friday night, a really big game which they needed to win, played some sublime stuff in transitions. Just lost their heads a little bit in the heat of the battle, and that is a concern with Sporting. They do have a few hot heads really, who can lose their cool in really high tension matches, but defensively they are pretty rigid, they’re very physical, they are a threat from set pieces, they’re quite intricate and expansive when they need to be, but ultimately this comes down for me about Man City and their control of matches and I think earlier in a campaign, when things weren’t quite getting up and running, possibly a bit of a hangover from the COVID days, they did look vulnerable to most teams really. But I think since we’ve entered the winter, they’ve just looked so dominant and so cool and so understanding of what was required, and they’re not even getting into third or fourth gear, they’re just beating teams and moving on to the next game.

Mark O’Haire:

They’ve got so many options, we talked about the players who are left out of the game against Norwich and still won that game at [inaudible 00:19:16], I just think they can easy strangle Sporting here. Ultimately Sporting’s best performances are coming domestically. I know they put in a few decent performances in the group stage, but it was a weak group in fairness. Dortmund were nowhere near the standards we expect them to be. Besiktas were absolutely appalling, and you are an Ajax team who are freewheeling really, and they cut Sporting to shreds, so I don’t see why City can’t follow suite there and do something similar. But just being the first leg of a knockout tie, I’ve played it slightly cautiously. I wanted City to win under four and a half goals, but you’re not going to get a price to really cheer on for that, so I’ve gone for City to win another three and half goals plus money, but yeah, I expect City to win. I wouldn’t be too surprised if they did it to nil either.

Flash:

Yeah. I’ve gone digging again, and I’ve gone with the home side, double chance first half, and it’s at plus money. So for this just to be a draw or maybe even Sporting to be 1-nil up in the first half, it’s at +115. Let’s have a look at the official peaks, because listen, you’ve got to give a little of respect to the home side. Now Sporting first half team total, over 0.5. I’ve got them to score first half as well, at +250. I think they’ve got to come out the traps and they’ve got to try and put this Manchester City side under a bit of pressure. Man City at under three and a half goals at +100.

Flash:

And I know Mina, that you liked Man City to win and both teams to score. That one in the chat seems to be going with you with that one. They’re thinking 2-1, 3-1 Man City, and that’s at +200. So all three of our bets could actually come in here, because if Man City win 2-1, and it’s 1-1 at halftime, or 1-0 at halftime to Sporting, we are going to clean up. We’ve got a +200, a +250, and a +100.

Mina:

Mark disagrees. And also there is a fair point in that they did engage in a very tough game over the weekend against Porto with several players sent off. So I wonder if that’s going to take something away from them from a mental level. But it’s that transitions, right? And Man City for me against transitions yeah, I’m going to go for both teams to score.

Flash:

Yeah. I think everyone… no one expects a clean sheet, but they wouldn’t be surprised. I think it’s one of them that after 90 minutes, you look back and go, it was the obvious one, but you’re not going to get rich on it. And I’ve got… obviously I’ve said already that my second play in this game, again for Sporting is actually Sporting plus half in the first half. So Sporting double chance, again at plus money. I’m going with the home side here to give a little bit of a shock to the system of Man City. I expect Man City to be far too strong over the two legs. I’ll be over the moon if they go out, because I’m going to be with Real Madrid +1,600, and I’m already with Chelsea as well. So unless… and I’ll be over the moon if all the big sides go out and just leave me-

Mina:

Me too.

Flash:

Yeah, no one wants to really see Man City go all the way and win, because you’re not going to get no value on that, but we’re on Sporting just for the value, and we’re on Man City to be too strong over maybe 90 minutes or 180, and I think everyone in the chat is also agreeing that they expect both teams to score.

Flash:

Okay, from Portugal, we’re going to go to Italy. We’re going to go to Milan, and for a lot of people, this is a really intriguing game, because it’s Inter versus Liverpool. Inter are massive at +250. Listen, they should never be +250 against anybody at home on a European night. Liverpool at +110, well Liverpool are probably one of the top two or three sides in this competition. The goals are set at two and a half, I think that’s right, but they’re over at -140. I’m not sure we see three goals in this game, because remember it is first half of a two legged tie, and the draw is at +260.

Flash:

Mark O’Haire, I’ll leave Mina to wrap things up, because obviously it’s her home game, but Inter versus Liverpool, cagey, cagey game.

Mark O’Haire:

Possibly. I’m feeling quite bullish about this one. I like the look of Liverpool at plus money. They’ve already won at San Siro this season, they Milan on Matchday 6 with a much changed team. Liverpool had already won the group and didn’t need to go to the San Siro and win, but they did, and I think they did win deservedly so. They beat Milan 3-2 at Anfield, but the scoreline wasn’t as reflective as Liverpool’s dominance that day. Obviously breezed through the group of death with six wins from six, [Atleti 00:23:44] and Porto no easy meat in that group at all, and then they came through with maximum points. The squad is stronger since, with the signing of Luis Diaz, Harvey Elliott back from injury as well.

Mark O’Haire:

I just think stylistically they’ll be too physical, too strong, too quick, and I think they can bully Inter who, domestically, I have absolutely no qualms with when they play the lesser likes in Seria A, but ultimately when they come up against the better teams, they’ve not been getting results, and you look at their league form, two wins from nine against the top six, beaten in the derby a fortnight ago, held at Napoli at the weekend, and they could’ve been a couple of goals down by halftime. Bogdanovic made some saves, Napoli hit the woodwork as well, just the one clean sheet in those nine games against the top six. And also if you want a different barometer, they’ve lost at home and away to Real Madrid in the last two Champions League campaigns as well. So I really like Inter, I love what they do domestically, but at the moment I feel like this is probably going to be a tougher task than potentially the odds are suggesting here.

Mark O’Haire:

We know all about Liverpool’s capability to score goals. They survived that banana skin at Burnley at the weekend in difficult conditions. They’ve only lost twice all season. The last defeat, or the only defeat since November was at Leicester, where they absolutely dominated them at the KP, and scoring multiple goals almost every game. They’ve only failed to score two or more goals in five Premier League or Champions League fixtures this season, which is outrageous really, considering we’re in mid-February now already. So yeah, Barella’s out for Inter, which is a blow, and I don’t believe San Siro is at full capacity either because of the COVID restrictions, so I think everything is to me, favoring Liverpool here.

Flash:

Don’t nod your head Mina, please. I’ve got so much faith in this Inter side on their day, on their night. I think this whole game is set up. And I know what I’ve said for the first couple of games that we’ve covered, that it’s obviously, it’s four quarters, it’s two halves and the halves are over 90 minutes, but I think the first half an hour of this game, Inter need to come out of the traps, put Liverpool on the back foot, and I just have faith in this Inter side troubling this Liverpool side.

Mina:

I think that it’s… I understand that right now Milan is at the top of the table, even though Inter have a game in hand, and people compare them and think of them as similar teams, but they are so vastly different in that Inter’s so much better. But what I think that Milan do so well is close that gap by wonderful tactics and a good coach. But Inter do, and are a lot more of a physical side, they have a lot more technique and control, and I think that they have a certain maturity about them which allowed them to win the Scudetto last season, and be a favorite to win it again this year.

Mina:

It is true, domestically, they are a force to be reckoned with, even though recently I think they’ve been rather mediocre. Against Milan, the problem that they have here and it can be seen against for example, Real Madrid, is that they are an emotional side. They suffered two losses against Lazio and Milan in the derby, largely because they get so angry at the decision and they just lose their heads entirely. And obviously, if the officiating is not going to go your way, you have to be intelligent enough to play through that and be smart enough to still get the points that your quality deserves.

Mina:

In terms of quality, I think they’d be very good at limiting the space granted to Liverpool, and I do think on a defensive level, they can genuinely do a job and they are physical enough to compete. But the problem is, is Barella isn’t available, and I’m not secure of Vidal not getting a red card. He is somebody who can be very reckless in some of these big matches. And another thing that worries me is substitutions. Against Real Madrid, they dominated for an hour. In fact Real didn’t get a shot on target till the 60th minute, and that’s because Inzaghi made his silly substitutions far too early. So substitutions is an issue here. Inzaghi is inexperienced, so if they play their cards right, they can get a goal, but I genuinely cannot see how their experience matches up to Liverpool. And playing at Anfield is just going to be impossible for them.

Flash:

Do you think Inter play two upfront, Mina? Or do you think they flood the midfield. Because the other matchup that I’m really interested in is Dumfries, who’s only good going forward, tracking back Robertson, because you don’t want Dumfries actually having to do any defending, because obviously we’re going to have problems. But if he stops Robertson coming forward by going forward himself… I’m just wondering if this first half an hour, as we just said, Madrid can get kicked for an hour. Yes, I think that Liverpool are not be underestimated, they are two absolutely top draw squads, but do you think he plays both the boys upfront and Dzeko as a partner?

Mina:

Yeah, I do. I think that what he’ll end up doing is if there is a gap because Dumfries is forward, then I think Vidal will drop back in and help out with Skriniar and try to cover up the gaps. And if it’s not him it will another midfielder. But I do think that he’s not going to change what they already know and do so well, I think the difference is, is that what Inter do have is sometimes they take their opponents for granted because it’s Inter and they think they can win every match in Seria A, but perhaps, just perhaps, we might see the correct attitude from them in Europe, realize the opponent, want to spring a surprise, and in fact, be the team that they underestimate. I certainly think they’re capable of a goal. They’re good enough, even if the man who’s leading the line is 35 years old in Edin Dzeko. The only problem is Lautaro Martínez [inaudible 00:29:03] contribute a goal or an assist in the Champions League so far, and he hasn’t scored in his last six Seria A matches.

Mina:

Is he really the exciting talent Klopp thinks he is? That’s another thing. Are they cynical enough to convert their chances? Because no one’s taken more shots on goal than Inter, and yet that’s they only secured eight goals for them this season in the Champions League. So, remains to be seen.

Flash:

Yeah, Lautaro does too much work outside the box for me. He goes drifting. He doesn’t want that physical contact. He doesn’t… he’s obviously lightweight compared to them big center halves, especially Liverpool center halves. I’m thinking to myself, “He’s got to play more central, but in a hole. And then he can let the midfielders play a little one, twos.” I think it’s a really, really good game, this. And I’m so looking forward to the first 35 minutes in Liverpool at 3-0 up.

Flash:

Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because I think I found one here. Inter just to score in the first half at +125. Let’s put it this way, I don’t think they score in the second half, so if they’re going to score in this game, it’s going to be in the first half, at +125. Liverpool money line at +110, that brings in a little of a maybe Liverpool to win and both teams to score?

Flash:

Listen, it’s one of those games. So everyone in the chat, I wonder how they’re finding this game. Everyone, Liverpool win 2-0, no thanks, Jo-Jo, can not read what I’ve wrote down there? Inter to score first half. Henry Dice, first half draw 1-1. And by the way, before we go to our fourth and final game this week for the Champions League, a round of 16 knockout. Make sure that you get your questions in. Obviously you can’t be questioning about games we’re not… because we’ve covered them all. But there will still be a little bit of a Q&A session prior to us giving you all the official picks. And as you can see that we’ve had maybe one or two in each game. Sam says, “Flash, congratulations on your Ram’s feature.” Rams winning the Super Bowl, that’s fish and chip paper. We’re now looking at Chelsea or Real Madrid to win the Champions League through your host.

Flash:

Okay, so it’s Liverpool money line at +110 and for my two experts, your presenter has gone for a bit of value at +125, and just Inter to score first half. Remember the Q&A is coming up prior to the official picks.

Flash:

Let’s go to the final game of four this week, and it’s a humdinger. It’s Salzburg versus Bayern. Salzburg a massive seven under and I wouldn’t put anyone off of that, because Bayern got beat 4-2 against a Bundesliga newcomer at the weekend. They were an absolute shambles. And at -275, no thank you. Over three and a half goals in the game at +100 could be a possibility, the draw at +455. Salzburg to score is at -180. That tells you everything, Mina. Bayern are not looking right at all. At defense they’re just so… what’s the word? They almost have an arrogance that, “Don’t worry if we let in two, because we know we’ll score three.” This Salzburg side, and this is my big question, is it the same Salzburg side that went to Sevilla and scored four in round one?

Mina:

Yeah, they really are not intimidated by any opponent they face or anything to do with where they are, which stadium they’re playing at, what the fans are thinking. This is a very mentally strong side and I am absolutely in love with their striker in Karim Adeyemi, who is probably going to join the Bundesliga next season. But just to see his goals and the number of assists that he plays and he’s managed to produce against some of the top opponents, just goes to show you that this is a side that isn’t marginally threatened by anyone. Having said all of that, it is very interesting to see a team like Bochum, who were defeated 7-nil by Bayern, actually manage to score four goals in the first half. This is something that hasn’t happened to Bayern since 1975. Which goes to show you just how weird this is and it’s an aberration. And I wonder sometimes whether Bayern do it just to remind us that the Bundesliga is rather competitive, but I can tell you that-

Flash:

I watched the game, Mina. I watched the game and every time Bochum went forward, they looked like scoring. Yeah, they scored a couple of [weldies 00:33:11], and I mean maybe out of 10 times, you’re only going to score them two goals twice, but they more than matched them. And I’m wondering if the Bayern players held a little bit back for themselves.

Mina:

Yeah, but it’s right you say that. This is the thing I’ve always found about Bayern is that when they do find an opponent that’s willing to go at their center backs, really go for them, they can be targeted, and I found that even when they had Jupp Heynckes in charge and had a great back line back then, but right now we know that Sule is leaving and I feel like there’s a part of him that’s already just given up and gone on holiday in his head, because I’m not sure what kind of performance that was, but it’s rather abysmal. I always struggle to say his name. Upamecano is still young and quite naïve, so consistency is an issue for him. And you’re asking Joshua Kimmich to do so much work. So I think there’s a lot there on a defensive level, and I do sometimes worry that with Nagelsmann, he almost wants too much that the team is flooded with instructions that sometimes concentration lapses can occur.

Mina:

If we’re talking about young coaches, I’m more of a fan of Sporting’s than I am of Nagelsmann. But for me, I still think that whatever we say, this is still a squad that has Lewandowski. This is still a squad that can score so many goals, and this is just an aberration. Surely this is an easy win for Bayern, but they will concede a ton of goals on the way to their winning the tie.

Flash:

Yeah. And Mark O’Haire, if I told you that Salzburg, by the way, who are probably the most front foot side in this competition on their day, they are absolutely a joy to watch and Salzburg to score in the first half, just score one goal, is at +195, Mark O’haire.

Mina:

Wow.

Mark O’Haire:

Yes, big price. I could echo everything that Mina said and I would say about the Bochum defeat from a Bayern perspective, well actually a Salzburg perspective, I think it’s possibly the worst thing that could’ve happened for Salzburg, the way in which Bayern performed in that game. They clearly weren’t focused, weren’t motivated, there was complacency, Nagelsmann said as much post match. He noticed something wasn’t quite right in the pre-match buildup, and he regretted not changing his team, and actually, if you look at his team, it was stupidly gung ho. He only had Joshua Kimmich really in midfield. It was basically a 4-1-4 or a 4-1-5.

Mark O’Haire:

It was quite mad really. And addressed it at halftime, bringing on Tolisso to try and steady the ship a little bit, but it didn’t really work, and he was very critical of his players and I think Bayern, as Mina says, sometimes do this, particularly in a week leading up to a big Champions League game. They aren’t fully focused. They believe they can just turn up and put on a performance. But I think from a Salzburg perspective, you’re now going to get an angry Bayern, a motivated Bayern, and that’s the trouble really.

Mark O’Haire:

This is a Salzburg team as well who are only just back from the winter break. I think they’ve only played two matches, one league game, which was on Friday night, a tricky game, which they’d underwhelmed in a little bit really, maybe they had eyes on this match too and they came through that really odd group, where they factored to deceive themselves at times. Now I had no high expectations for them in some of those matches, and I felt they fell below that on occasion. But you’re right, they will go there and they will try and attack. They played Bayern twice last season, they lost 6-2 and 3-1. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar here and yeah, Bayern absolutely are, I wouldn’t say beatable… well, they are beatable, we saw that at the weekend, but they’re definitely not clean sheet merchants, so when they’re missing Manuel Neuer, missing Alphonso Davies, missing Leon Goretzka, there’s an unbalanced nature about that team right now which would give Salzburg an opportunity.

Mark O’Haire:

Nagelsmann, a very much a front-foot coach, who will look out for that team to go out and score goals and convince… I do expect Bayern to win, but when you look at the market, basically, if you look at spread betting websites, they can give you an estimate of how many goals they think are to be expected, and we’re looking around the 3.7 mark, which I think is probably fair enough really. And when you look at the handicaps, set at one and half goals, read between the lines and you’re looking at the market suggesting Bayern win this game 3-1, which fits the narrative I think we’re all talking about, really. Salzburg can cause some problems, but ultimately Bayern should in theory just be too strong, and too bruised in terms of egos from the weekend to let Salzburg away with something from this. So yeah, I’d like Bayern to win and both teams to score. I think it’s a really nice price at plus money.

Flash:

Yeah, it’s great, plus money. I think it’s +160, but we’ll look at that in a minute because I love the fact that Henry in the chat… remember, get yourselves in the chat, is your home, you are the third guest. I love it when my people in the chat come up with them like they think they’re all clever and cocky and it’s like… Henry’s come up with, “First half, over one and a half goals, +100. Nothing better than that.”

Flash:

Well I tell you what is better than that Henry, over one and a half goals, first half, at +120, with BetUS. So that’s 20% more. That’s more than you’re going get in the bank for five years. 20% more if you go to betus.com of over one and a half goals in the first half. And the reason I’ve gone for that is because I have gone for Salzburg to score first half, if they done, and Bayern are 2-nil up, you still made a 20c, or a 0.2 of a unit. So yeah, I’m happy to go with that.

Flash:

Let’s have a look at the official picks, because I think everybody is going to have to go with goals here, is Bayern and both teams to score. It’s amazing that my experts do lock in to the big, big prices of +160 of Bayern and both teams to score, and I don’t think anyone would imagine Bayern are going to keep a clean sheet, and if they do do what they normally do, then +160 is massive. Salzburg first half, team total over… just a score, over 0.5, +195, and I’ve got the caveat in there, of my second play, which is over 1.5 goals in the first half at +120. Mark O’Haire, I thought that you would like that one. I thought you would say that two goals in the first half is almost a guarantee.

Mark O’Haire:

I love both of your plays Flash, I really wouldn’t be too surprised if this is… this is going to be one to watch, isn’t it, on Wednesday? It’s going to be end to end. It’s going to be quite thrilling. It’d be impossible not to expect goals, and particularly in the first half as well, so I think you’re onto something there, for sure.

Flash:

Yep. And Mina, can you give me the old thumbs up on my selections as well?

Mina:

Yeah, I definitely think there’s just going to be… it’s a golf fest. And I do think they’re missing Alphonso Davies. Salzburg are missing quite a few players of their own, but for me I do think this is going to be one of those matches where defense no longer matters and it hurts somebody like me who’s a fan of calcio, Italian football.

Flash:

Okay, so that’s the four games all sorted, I’m having a little chat with everyone in the… what, hold on a minute. Someone’s saying, “Why does Flash really love underdogs?” Because they’re not really underdogs. They’re just valued prices, and you give me -300, -300, -300, I’ve only got to hit my +300 once in every four times to be on the equivalent. And yet if I get beat on a -300, I’m in all sorts of trouble.

Flash:

So okay, questions and answers now, if you’ve got anything that you want to say to my guest, although we have actually covered everything, but remember it’s +1,600, which for Real Madrid to win the Champions League. Do you fancy the Spanish giants to get through this?

Mina:

[inaudible 00:40:26]?

Flash:

Sorry?

Mina:

You don’t think it’s Chelsea anymore?

Flash:

No I do, but the reason I’ve got a parlay of +6,600 going on to Chelsea, because my other two selections have already come in. So basically now, yes I want Chelsea obviously, but I now can can have Real, or I can pick someone else and it just stands out like an absolute beacon, the +1,600, because if they get through [inaudible 00:40:50] like all three of think they will, they’re going to be +700. And then in the next round if they get someone like… who gets through and they’re only a little side, then they’re going to be less than 700. So that was just a value take for me. So here we go.

Flash:

So really at the end there’s no questions really. Michael [inaudible 00:41:12], “What do we think about the Man United-Atletico, two rubbish teams?” Again, it’s a different show, Michael. So just make sure you join us tomorrow. We have the Europa League Show, with @AlexClassicTips, who’s our Bundesliga expert, and remember Dortmund are the favorites for Europa League and I’ve got La Liga Lowdown’s Paco, and I tell you what, there’s some great value there by the way of Real Betis, +2,500. No hotter team in La Liga than them. Barcelona are at +800, and if you really want to go for it, then you’ve got Real Sociedad at +2,500 as well. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, please?

Flash:

There they are, I’m not going for them, but look at all the pluses. There’s so many pluses. Look at Mark. Mark, you’ve gone a bit mad. I want to do my M&M impression of “would the real Mark O’Haire please stand up, please stand up”. +160, +110. +100. Mina, it’s typical of you, +160, +110, +105. That Madrid to qualify really, really, does look good. My favorite out of mine, I think Salzburg to score first half at +195 and Salzburg and Bayern over one and a half goals first half, at +120.

Flash:

So we are America’s Favorite Sportsbook, and we’d like to invite you to subscribe and ring the bell. Wring the bell means you’re never going to miss any content again, and we have tennis coming up in a few weeks. We have more golf, we have the majors, which is going to be great, and then we start with the triple crown. That’s all on top of everything else of NBA, March Madness and La Liga, Seria A, Bundesliga and the Premier League.

Flash:

Mina, thank you very much and I look forward to seeing you on Seria A on Thursday, Mark O’Haire, I need your help on Premier League, because went 0 and 8. So please, please, bring your A game. From everyone at BetUS, enjoy the Champions League Round Of 16, because remember, out of these 16 teams, a few weeks time, we’ll down to eight. You take care.