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La Liga Betting Show

Flash:

Welcome to BetUS soccer show. I’m Flash and it’s LaLiga match date 14, and we have a new hero in town. The prodigal son returns, Xavi goes back to Barcelona and you’ll see that one of my guests is absolutely smiling and the other one is ecstatic, cannot believe it. He’s been going for Koeman out and he’s not even the Barca fan. But we are America’s favorite sports book, so let’s start with giving you a little something. Go to betus.com and sign up and you’ll get 125% bonus up to two and a half thousand dollars. All you got to do is put a promo code in of La Liga odds 2021. So it’s LaLiga 2021 is your promo code, up to two and a half thousand dollars.

Flash:

And that equates to 125% sign up bonus. If this is your first time, get yourselves in the chat and please subscribe. We’re looking to get to 3000 soccer subscribers on BetUS. You can also follow us on BetUS_Official on Twitter. Ring the bell. No more press, no more press that button, it’s ring the bell and then we will notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. Now, my two experts today are stats and value genius Pavlos and the all seeing and all hearing Pavlo, sorry, Roman. I couldn’t believe that I was saying these nice things about you, Roman. Roman from La Liga Lowdown and Barcelona. I’m going to come to you first Roman, because it’s good to see that smile return on your face.

Roman:

Yeah. And I think we finally have something to be happy about here at Barcelona with Koeman finally leaving. I know Pavlos wanted him out more than I did, but still, it’s good to not have him around anymore because the team wasn’t doing well, simply. And I think Xavi is the right man. I mean, it’s true that he lacks experience possibly at the top flight football, but at the same time, nobody knows Barcelona better than he does. He’s been at the club, he knows how La Masia works, he knows what the fans want, he knows what the players want, et cetera, et cetera.

Roman:

So I think in that sense, he can provide a lot and he has done really well back in Qatar where he was coaching in the last few years. So hopefully, he can kind of implement those ideas with better players and actually make Barca improve of course, and start climbing up position because we might not win La Liga title, but at least we have to fight for those Champions League positions. And with Xavi, there’s a bit more hope at the moment and we’ll see how it all starts in that first game against Espanyol on Saturday. Yeah.

Flash:

And the one thing that not many people even mentioned Pavlos, is that Xavi, your manager, no player in that Barcelona squad are as good or were as good or are as good as he was. You open your ears and listen and implement what he says.

Pavlos:

Yeah, exactly. I think it’s a great addition for this Barcelona side. First, the timing is a bit weird because they have a local derby against Espanyol. And Barcelona, they have a lot of injuries up front. But, it’s very exciting, a very exciting timing of the season for Barcelona, with a new manager and everyone is trying to impress him and learn what he can from one of the greatest in Spanish football.

Flash:

Yeah. Without a shadow over doubt my good friend Matt Le Tissier loves the fact that Xavi’s hero was Matt Le Tissier. So he said, “Obviously he knows a player.” So he used to have Matt Le Tissier pictures up on his wall. Now, we’re going to cover eight games, but I’ve gone with a one unit four team parlay here this week, because it is international break caviar. Then we’ve got champions league. So if they win, they win. If they don’t, I’m not going to be going and chasing my hat. Let’s have a little look at the records because I see that LaLiga Lowdown are now in positive territory. They are up knot .33. I’m sitting at the top 3.4. Pavlos keeps hitting the post. He gave us the perfect analysis of Bilbao versus Cádiz. Cádiz, they score first half. So we took Cádiz to score first or score, just score plus 155.

Flash:

I know that some of you did the plus 700 after 75 minutes, but Bilbao couldn’t score against the team that Pavlos told you let in more goals than anyone else in the last 15 minutes. Get yourselves in the chat if you’ve got anything you want to say. But remember we’re covering nearly all the games. We’ll be a little bit shorter on the parlay games, but let’s kick off with our Friday night game. Very, very interesting game this, if you support one of these two sides. If you don’t, then no one’s interested. It’s Levante versus Bilbao Athletic Club. Pavlos, what are your numbers saying? Because Levante, we know no one gets them because they don’t even know how they’re going to play.

Pavlos:

Exactly. Their numbers are quite terrible. They have the worst XG, the fourth worst offense, worst XG at home. Third worst home offense. And when you pair that up with Bilbao pretty solid numbers. Bilbao have the seventh best XGA with just one point, two-two per game. Second best defense with just eight conceded goals. On the road, they’re equally good with the fifth best XGA on the road. The best away difference could three conceded goals. However, Levante, they recently changed their coach. And the new coach is trying to do something different in this team. But, it just doesn’t work out. I mean, their defense is worse than before. Their offense is just slightly better. They scored three goals in the loss to Seville. They scored twice against Atlético Madrid. They score a lot more than they did at the start of the season, but they also concede a lot.

Pavlos:

When you look at this Bilbao side, I mean, their difference is quite solid. They kept tricking seats on the road in the first three matches, but then they conceded against Real Sociedad, Espanyol, and Valencia, which are not bad sides, they are actually pretty good sides. So when you look at this match, especially after the two teams have, they played each other three times last season and all three were 1-1 draws. And I wouldn’t be surprised by a Levante goal here. This Bilbao side has been not very stable as of late. And I don’t really trust them to pick anything about them in this match. Maybe Levante could score against them because, as I said, their offense has been operating much, much better lately. But, this is one of the cage matches and it’s in between the international break and the Champions League matches, of course, neither of this teams are playing in Europe. So this is just a very weird match. But if anything, I would see a Levante goal here at plus 165ish, something like that. But other than that-

Flash:

Well, just to score Levante are plus, let’s get their numbers up so you can speak over them. You’re saying Levante, just to score. Let’s have a look at this. Over half a goal is plus one or under, no plus. So you think Levante score or not score?

Pavlos:

Wait, what’s the price? The price.

Flash:

The price for Levante, minus 220 to score.

Pavlos:

I mean, they expect, the books expect Levante to score against this Bilbao defense. Again, I said that their offense is operating much better lately, but the price doesn’t justify the opposition. Bilbao have a very good defense. And I, again, it’s a very weird match for me. I’d rather pass here, but, I could see Levante scoring. But I’m just not touching that in that price.

Flash:

Well, even the over two goals, Roman, is at minus 145. Are we looking at maybe both teams of score? Remember the last three times these have met, they have all ended 1-1, but that doesn’t mean a lot because Levante drew 1-1 with nearly everyone last year.

Roman:

Yeah, basically. I mean, Levante’s case is a very complicated one because they’re the only team at LaLiga who hasn’t won a single match so far this season. Which is of course, very poor. And they’re fighting to avoid those bottom positions. And it’s true that despite that, they have managed goals in some games. They’re quite unpredictable. We saw that goal fest with Seville where nobody expected them to score so many goals. But at the same time, they’re not a consistent team. And in that game, Seville kind of relaxed a bit after they had a comfortable advantage. And that’s when Levante had a bit of an opportunity. So overall, I just, I’m not convinced about the decision of changing the managers so early in the season. It’s true that they weren’t getting results, there were no wins yet. But it’s hard to find a better manager than in this case, Paco López, who had been in the club for the last few years, got really good results in other seasons.

Roman:

He knew the team better than in anyone else. And of course, if you bring someone else from the outside who doesn’t know the team as well, who has to kind of fight and try not get drowned in there because he’s already finding himself right at the bottom, it’s complicated. And I’m sure Paco would agree with me on this because Levante haven’t really reacted with a new manager. And I honestly, see it really tough for them to get their first win here because Athletic Kluba is, Pavlos says, is a very strong side defensively. They’re very tight. Even though it’s true that Dani Vivian, one of the revelations in defense this season for Marcelino Athletic Kluba still is injured. So he’s not going to be there, but he has a really good sub in this case, which is Yeray, who has been in a long term injury and started playing the last couple of games.

Roman:

But he still is a good pair with Iñigo Martínez. And it won’t be easy for Levante to get a goal. But, of course, playing at home makes you think, and knowing how desperate they can’t wait behind and hope for a miracle, they have to kind of push forward. So it is tricky to say, we might see goals here, we might not. But I do kind of feel like it draws a likely outcome here for some reason, because Athletic away from home aren’t too good either. Their numbers aren’t great. They’ve only managed one win out of San Mamés. So that’s why I think that this one could be a tricky one. As Pavlos said, seeing how many doubts there are, I’d rather just pass and not take any risks in this case.

Flash:

Okay, you’re out. We expect this to be a very, very tight game. Maybe draw half time. But if you want to go draw for full time, it’s plus 225. There’s no official picks on this game because this is your Friday night game. Maybe we’re going to go with a draw. As Pavlos said, the last three have all ended 1-1. Will they make it four out of four. Let’s kick on. Let’s go to Saturday’s games. And let’s start with the official picks because this is a really, really good game. It’s Celta Vigo versus Villarreal. Roman, it says to me that there’s goals here. And the away side, I cannot trust them any longer. I think I will need shooting if I go anywhere near the yellow submarine anymore. And Celta, just when you think you’ve got a hand on this side and they score goals every week they throw in, no goals.

Roman:

That’s exactly what I was going to say. Like that game against Rayo Vallecano, I think, had all the ingredients for both teams to actually provide and score goals-

Flash:

It was over 20 odd shots on goal.

Roman:

And in the end there was a nil-nil result. It’s like extremely disappointing. That’s why Celta this season are kind of a bit like Valencia last season. A very tricky side, hard to predict. And I just don’t know what you’re going to get. You might really get a great version like against Barcelona in the second half. They kind of out of nowhere pulled a miraculous comeback to draw the game and they played really well. But the first half was horrible from Celta. It’s like in the same game, they show their both sides. So you don’t really know what to expect. And Villarreal, it’s true that they got the win the other day against Getafe, they might be back on track here. And I do think they have a good opportunity of winning this game, but seeing how still they are a bit unpredictable, as you said, they still are not very reliable. Their football still has to improve, and offensively they’re lacking those goals with Gerónimo injured. So that’s why I wouldn’t take any risks, but I kind of feel like Villarreal might get something here, although with this unpredictable Celta, careful.

Flash:

Yeah. I mean, actually probably it’s now on their head and says, “LaLiga, it’s schizophrenic.” And it is because the majority of sides, when you think they haven’t got a player, they put in a performance and it’s almost like they turn it on and off like a tap. Which, you know, in professional sport, you cannot do. Put the numbers up please. And Pavlos, give me the stats and where the value is here. Because the home side, if ever they were going to play Villarreal and have a chance, this weekend is it. And they’re plus 180 on the money line.

Pavlos:

Exactly. Well, it’s true that Celta, they’re one of the most controversial teams out there. They make especially bad starts in their matches, in the first half. They’ve scored just two goals in their first halves. And they have conceded eight. And at home they have scored no goals in the first half and they have conceded seven. So they make really bad first halves, but they usually turn it around, when they do it, in the second halves. And Villarreal are not a team, I mean, this is the best possible scenario for the best possible timing for this Celta side, because Villarreal they have a crucial Champions League odd match coming up. They are going to host Manchester United. Both teams have seven point each.

Pavlos:

Atalanta have five and Young Boys have three. So everything is up for grabs in that group. And I think that Villarreal, they will try to focus more on that Champions League match, maybe for sure they will rotate their players. I think that Gerard Moreno, he might play either in this weekend match or in Champions League. Maybe Roman can confirm more or deny this. And I also heard that there were some contract extensions in Villarreal in the past couple of days, which will surely give them a boost. But I think that everyone in Villarreal is going to think about that match against Manchester United in the Champions League. And it’s not like they’ve been in very good form lately.

Pavlos:

Of course, they’re coming off back to back wins against Getafe and Young Boys, which was actually their first back to back win set of the season. And on the road, there have been rather unreliable. Their only win this season in all competitions have come up against Young Boys, while they’re still winless in the LaLiga. And they do have a good defense on the road. Second best away defense with just six conceded goals. Fourth best overall defense with 12 conceded goals. But, their offense is just struggling a bit on the road. They have the worst away offense with just three goals. Seven, the worst XG on the road. Celta’s numbers are not very good. But I think that they won just one much at home this season. And again, they’re very, very controversial, but I think this is a match where Celta Vigo know that there is an opportunity to take at least one point from this affair. And that’s why I’m backing them up this week with Celta on the [inaudible 00:16:13].

Flash:

Okay. So draw on Celta, draw on, I mean, it does look like the draw’s going to be a massive runner at plus 240, but for me, I don’t see free goals. So if I don’t see free goals, then minus 115. I was like doing my analysis in my head and I looked up and thought, “It’s got to be around minus 135.” It’s minus 115 for there to be under two and a half goals. Let’s have a look at the official picks because for me, I cannot go near Villarreal. I remember I went with Villarreal to win their group in Champions League odd at plus 600.

Flash:

So for me, it’s all about midweek and I’ll leave them. Thank you very much. It’s a pass from Roman. But Celta, draw no bet at plus 105. If you fancy Celta just to win, you’re going to get about 60% more than that as well. Now, I’ve done a four team parlay. Here is my leg one. It’s a big old game and they need to make sure they win it, because it’s Sevilla versus Alavés. And Alavés, they cause about one or two shocks per season. They’ve already had one this year. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen this weekend. Roman, Sevilla versus Alavés. It’s a home win. We’re not going to get rich on it, but we can parlay it up.

Roman:

I think you can. It’s true that Alavés are in good form because they haven’t lost any of the last four games. They finally started picking up those points. I remember a month or a few months ago, we were criticizing Alavés a lot for playing terrible football, doing really, really poorly. Looking like they were going to get relegated. And I honestly kind of stand by it in the sense that they have improved, but it’s not that they’re playing great football now, it’s that they’re finally becoming a team. More cohesive and the manager’s trying to get through those ideas that they have to stay united to kind of fight this through. And at the moment it’s working, but I don’t know how long it’s going to last. And of course, against a team like Sevilla, I think this gets more complicated because Sevilla now, they have to keep up with those good results.

Roman:

They need to win. They need to keep fighting for the title at the moment because they’re contenders with Real Sociedad. They’re on 27 points with Real Madrid on second and third position. So, I mean, in this case, I do honestly think that Sevilla is a clear win. I was trying to find value, but I couldn’t. So I think a parlay kind of made a lot of sense for this. And it’s true that they’re not going to have En-Nesyri who got injured again from the same problem. It Seemed like he was going to come back, he was recovered. But then they’ve lost him once again, which is very unfortunate. The good thing we could say is that he probably will miss the African Cup. So I mean, Sevilla will be able to have him sooner than expected maybe. But now Rafa Mir has to step up once again. And I think he is still a good striker and overall Sevilla has a great squad playing at home against Alavés. It might be close one nil, it might be something tight, but I think Sevilla will pull through

Flash:

Yeah. In front of their home fans. Let’s get the numbers up because we don’t want to spend too long on this game because it’s a don’t complicate it. It’s a home win and it is just my selection because it’s minus 245. So I’m not reinventing the wheel, but is there any reason why I shouldn’t go for Sevilla, don’t complicate it minus 245. And notice Pavlos, I’ve not gone for them to win by two clear goals because I cannot trust them.

Pavlos:

Yeah. I mean, they also have a crucial Champions League Match coming up. I think it’s on Tuesday. They will host Wolfsburg and Sevilla are last in that group, but they have three points. And the top seed, which is Salzburg have seven. So everything is also up for grabs in that group. So in this match against Alavés I mean, Sevilla have really strong numbers, especially defensively. I mean, they also have the second best offense. They have the best home offense. The best defense and the third best home defense. I mean, their XGs are also up there. Really, fifth best XG, fourth best XG at home. Their numbers are just really, really good. And Alavés, especially on the road, they have, I mean just bad results. Bad numbers, not bad results. Because something weird has happened to Alavés lately, they’re playing much, much better. And yeah, this matchup has a long history of unders. I think eight of the last nine matches, regardless of venue, had under two and a half goals.

Pavlos:

And five of the last six matches in this venue had under two and a half goals. I just don’t see Sevilla going the extra mile here. I think they’ll just score one or two goals and then sit back, protect the defense and just move on to their Champions League match. So yeah, I definitely see Sevilla winning here. Alavés, I don’t think they can score against this Sevilla defense. But again, Alavés have been playing really good lately. They’re unbeaten in the last four. The last time they did that, I think they went, they did go actually five months undefeated last season. Around that time, they did some great results. They had a draw against Barcelona, a draw against Valencia, a win Real Madrid and a draw against Real Sociedad. But anyway, that was last season. So as far as this match goes, yeah, I definitely see Sevilla winning here. Possibly win to nil. Maybe Sevilla and under three and a half goals as a same game parlay, but yeah, low scoring match.

Flash:

See, and that’s why I went for money line because you can’t trust Sevilla because we thought, “Yeah, they’re Sevilla, will just win one or two nil.” Five, three day one. So you’d have had to have gone under eight and no, I’m not interested. Just minus 245, stick it in. And I’ve got a couple of little friends to bring home the money with you. Official picks and you’ll see, if you are a first time watching the new type of shows, you’ll see a P next to it. So it’s not one unit on Sevilla money line, it’s one unit on the parlay.

Flash:

It’s a pass from Pavlos, it’s a pass from Roman. So we’re just going to be going through these parlay games until we get to the official picks of the gentlemen. So the second game that we’re going to cover, which will be the second leg of our parlay is possibly champions elect, Atlético versus Osasuna. Osasuna, going now full of confidence. Playing with a new found, I wouldn’t say it’s a new setup, I wouldn’t say it’s a new tactic, I just see that the players have a lot more belief, Roman. But going into Atlético, that’s completely.

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, Osasuna have had a very good season so far. Let’s not forget recently that draw again Real Madrid where they were convinced that they could pull something out of that game. They were really, really strong defensively, but that was basically, they were defending and Madrid were just pushing and pushing and pushing, but they just couldn’t find the goal. But then the next couple of games against Sevilla and Real Sociedad, Osasuna did end up losing and not scoring any goals. And it kind of depends what version we see of them here against Atlético. They’re going be like again Real Madrid and try and really stick that block at the back and stop Atlético from scoring or they’re going to actually try and go forward a bit. But, I’m not so worried as much with Osasuna rather than I’m worried with Atlético de Madrid because this season they’re also not reliable.

Roman:

Last season, they were one of my teams where I could rely on them to get those wins. But then this season out of nowhere, they just suddenly dropped these points. That draw against Levante for example, the other day against Valencia. Those last minute goals Valencia got, when it seemed like Atlético had a comfortable win in their hands and then suddenly out of nowhere, they smashed [inaudible 00:23:29] three nil. So it’s kind of, what version are you going to get? I do expect Atlético to win this match, of course. Even though João Félix got injured today, apparently training. But I still don’t think he’s that important in this team to kind of be a setback for them. They still have plenty of quality. And honestly, I think Atlético should get the win. But, I’m a bit careful in that sense, because Atlético sometimes are just bringing out their worst version with Simeone and that’s something they have to avoid if they actually want to revalidate that title they won last season.

Flash:

Yeah. And then the other reason, put the numbers up please, because the other reason I just went with money line here was because I look at the game and think they’re going to win. But normally you’d say, “Atlético and unders.” But then all of a sudden I’m thinking Osasuna have scored and caused some teams problems. And Atlético, obviously champions league. I didn’t think that Atlético would win this game two nil, three one. So I couldn’t go near the minus one at minus 140, but minus 245, same as around the Sevilla price. I thought, “Okay, don’t complicate because I can definitely see this being one nil, Pavlos.”

Pavlos:

Yeah. Well, they do need to shape up their defense because they have conceded two or more goals in five of their last six, which is weird to me. Which is weird in general about this Atlético Madrid defense. But most of these match were on the road. At home, they perform much better. They have the best XGA at home. The third best home defense with four conceded. But, Osasuna, they’ve been doing a really good job on the road. They have four wins, one loss and one draw. They got a draw against Real Madrid. They beat Villarreal. They beat, well, the other teams were not that good, but it still goes to show that they’re doing a really good job. Actually, they were doing a really good job, but they’re now winless in their last four.

Pavlos:

They scored just one goal in that span. I’m not entirely sure if something’s wrong, they don’t have any injuries. There’s something else that is going wrong there. But, this is a match where Atlético Madrid should win, like a professional win. Like a one nil, two nil. Exactly same scenario like Sevilla. They’ve been great against us Osasuna. They’ve won each of the last six in 10 of the last 11 matches against Osasuna. They’ve won the last five matches as hosts. They scored two plus goals in all five matches. So yeah, I believe this is an Atlético Madrid win. I wouldn’t touch the under here because maybe Osasuna can give them a hard time. But yeah, this looks like an Atlético win and by not that big margin.

Flash:

No, 2-1, one nil. That’s why you can’t make any confidence of going, “Atlético and under two and half or Atlético minus one.” No. I’ve just put it in with Sevilla and I’ve put it in with two others. So let’s have a little look at the official picks and you will see that it is Atlético, money line with a P. Pass from Pavlos, pass from Roman, but we will be getting to their picks. Now, the biggest game for Roman outside of playing Barcelona and Real Madrid is Barcelona versus Espanyol. It is a Darby. Xavi will be there. It will be his team. He will be responsible and the crowd will be absolutely buzzing. It will be a really, really good atmosphere this, Roman.

Roman:

Yeah. I actually got my ticket to go to this game because I think it’s going to be a great one to see Xavi.

Flash:

Did you get one or two tickets? So you go with a friend or?

Roman:

I’m going on my own. I’m going on my own. I had a discount only for me, I had to take it. So I’m going to go.

Flash:

Is it like that? Do you like get, like it’s not an abundance of tickets for the locals?

Roman:

No. Yeah, yeah. When I bought it, there were still plenty of tickets. But, it was like a quick thinking thing. Xavi signed. I knew I had a discount, so I was like, “Go for it. Don’t waste your time.” And I want to see Xavi first person in his debut. And of course there’s a lot of expectations. So I think we’re going to see a packed stadium or at least I’m hoping because this season has been quite deceiving in that sense. A lot of games where you could see so many empty chairs, which definitely isn’t what you want at the Camp Nou. And so I think being a derby also makes it extra special, against Espanyol. That’s definitely going to be an interesting one. But at the same time, that’s why, I don’t want to, it’s the game maybe from your parlay I have more doubts regarding, because I’ve been very careful with Barcelona, we could say, this season.

Flash:

Well, I don’t mind that because you’re a Barcelona fan and I know that most skeptical fans or the skeptical capas are when you are doing it with your own teams. I have Meina doing the same with Juve. I have other like with Dortmund in the Bundesliga with Alex. So no, it’s totally normal.

Roman:

Yeah, exactly. And also seeing how things have gone and it’s a new manager, I don’t know if there’s going to be a radical change. If it’s going to be much more of the same for a while, until something new is implemented, et cetera. So that’s why I’d rather wait and see how things go. And Espanyol, let’s not forget they’re doing pretty well. I mean this season, they had a rough start, but now they’re quite on a good track. They did lose against Getafe, which was unexpected. But of course, Raúl de Tomás was injured and we know how important [inaudible 00:28:43] suspended. And we know how important he is for Espanyol and he’s going to be available for this game. So I think it’s going to be a tight one. I don’t expect a massive goal fest. I do think both teams could score, but I don’t really know what the outcome will be. Even though Barca at the Camp Nou have to win. Especially seeing that they’re 10 points away from Real Madrid and 11 from Real Sociedad who are top, it’s a must win for Xavi already in this debut.

Flash:

Yeah. And that’s the reason that they’re my third leg put the numbers up. Pavlos, any reason that the third leg of my parlay should be in trouble against an Espanyol side who are punching above their weight and they’re overachieving at the moment?

Pavlos:

Yeah. They are over achieving indeed, but they usually do that at home. On the road, their numbers are quite bad. They have the fourth worst away offense with just five goals. Fifth worst away difference with nine conceded goals. They are on a quite of a bit good run lately. They have lost just one of the last six. Three wins, one loss, two draws. They scored in all six matches and scored two plus goals in four of those. But, they are zero, three and three on the road. While Barcelona are four, one and two at home. And of course the return of Xavi, we said at the start of the show that Barcelona have a lot of absences, especially upfront, Fati is out, Agüero is out, Dembélé is out, Braithwaite is out. But yeah, this is always a huge derby for Barcelona who have crashed Espanyol.

Pavlos:

They have won the last 13 matches as hosts against Espanyol, keeping 10 clean sheets in the process. They won by two or more goals on 10 occasions. So they usually, they beat this Espanyol by a lot. But the last two seasons have been one nil and two nil wins, rather small. Maybe something similar today, considering the fact that they also have a Champions League match coming up and they also need wins there. But I think that they will have their focus on this match because if they drop points against Espanyol, maybe Espanyol will bypass them in the standings and throw them in the second half of the league table. So this is a crucial match. Barcelona must win this one. And yeah, I don’t see any upsets. I mean, maybe Espanyol can score here, but Barcelona will surely outscore Espanyol, no matter how many Espanyol score.

Flash:

Yeah. Christopher [inaudible 00:31:02], and I hope I pronounce that name right, says, “New manager, same players.” It doesn’t quite work like that, Christopher, because the new manager, new ideas, new ways of being like man management, maybe putting an arm round some, maybe giving the others. It’s almost like the carrot and the stick for the donkey. Some donkeys need a whack, some need a carrot. And if he gets that balance right, remember we’re talking about Barcelona players and they all are far better than the Espanyol players.

Flash:

Let’s have a little look at the official pick, because again, you will see the P there for me against the third leg of my four team. That’s pass from Pavlos, pass from Roman. But Barcelona money line is my third leg of my parlay. Only one more leg to go. But it’s not in this next game because this next game thought I was just pushing my luck by going with the visitors here, Getafe versus Cádiz. Roman, Cádiz, done us all a massive favor. I know that people were plus 700, plus 850 on what we said about them being away last time in Bilbao. Now against Getafe, it smells a little bit this game.

Roman:

Yeah, it does smell a little bit. And I think it’s true that Cádiz are on a good run. I mean, it kind of makes sense to think that they’re the favorites here and they could get something out of this match. But at the same time, it’s Getafe, who’s had a new manager recently and I mean they’ve had some decent results they’re in between and things are improving slightly and they are really desperate also for those wins. And I don’t know how long this good streak is going to last for Cádiz basically. I mean they have been playing well, but also, I saw recently that one of the main guys, these good results, Choco Lozano, their striker, he’s doubt for this game.

Roman:

So we are going to have to wait and see in the next few training sessions if he’s finally going to be available because without him, I do think it would be an important setback in attack for Cádiz. That’s why I just don’t want take too many risks in this game. I do think both teams to score also is something likely. I do think they need to score especially Getafe, but at the same time, it depends on what version we’re going to get because Cádiz we know that can sit back if they want, as long as they have to. And if they try and find those spaces, they can also be dangerous in the counter attack. So it’ll be interesting to see, but I’m not putting my money on this one.

Flash:

No. Let’s have a little look at the numbers. Pavlos, can we take on the same information you gave us before that we expect Cádiz to score. Maybe we expect Cádiz to score in the first half. And if we’re going to see Getafe get back in this game, it’s going to be goals in the second half. So then it brings in the draw plus 230. But look at that, Cádiz to not score now. Not score is plus 105. So for them to score, it’s at minus 135. We look at both teams to scores, so the over two at plus 110 could be a way to go.

Pavlos:

This is a very similar match to the Bilbao versus Cádiz match last week because the prices on both teams to score and only Cádiz to score are pretty similar. And I just don’t see Getafe scoring in this one, even though Cádiz have a bad difference. I mean, Getafe’s numbers are really, really, really bad. They have the fifth worst XG, worst offense with just six goals. Third worst XG at home, worst home offense with four goals. I mean, their offense is just miserable this season. While Cádiz, they’re not doing very well defensively. They have the fourth worst XGA with 1.55 per game. Third worst defense with 19 conceded goals. Maybe Getafe can score against this bad Getafe defense. But Cádiz, they’ve scored in five of their six away matches. They scored against Betis, Celta Vigo, Rayo, Villarreal, and Bilbao. I mean, these are all very, very good [crosstalk 00:34:43].

Pavlos:

Yeah. And some of them are really good defensive sides. Cádiz, somehow they play very, very well in their first halves. While Getafe are really bad in the second halves. In the second halves, Getafe have scored just one goal. They have conceded 12. It’s not illogical to expect a late Cádiz goal, even though themselves, they don’t score a lot of goals late in the matches. But Getafe, I don’t know if it’s tiredness or lack of fitness, something goes very wrong with Getafe in the final 15 minutes of their matches and they do really, really bad. I think because both of these team are expected to fight to avoid relegation, of course, Getafe are now sitting at the bottom of the standings and Cádiz are sitting just one point above.

Pavlos:

If you can’t beat the worst team in the league, maybe you should be considered as the relegation candidate. I think this is a match where Cádiz will score. Maybe they’ll score in both halves. Of course, we have to see about that forward, about his fitness. If he’s going to miss, maybe it’ll be a huge blow for this Cádiz offense. But I think that Getafe is just one of the weakest teams in the LaLiga. And if Cádiz want to avoid any mishaps later on in the season, they should definitely get some points here. And if you want to get points, you have to score. I mean, goalless draws, it’s just a risky way to go. I think Cádiz over half a goal. Yep.

Flash:

Okay, that’s minus 135. The other way is that if you fancy Cádiz to be too strong in both halves, remember Cádiz normally score first half. If they don’t let one in, in the second half, then the plus 355 is massive. But what about Cádiz and the draw at minus 115. Let’s have a look at the official picks because there’s no P for parlay in this section of the show. Cádiz team total over 0.5 minus 135. Remember we got plus 155 away at Bilbao. We really went well there. Roman, it’s a pass from you, it’s a pass from I. Let’s move on because the next game is the fourth and final leg of the parlay. And I think we have some other picks as well. Because it’s Granada versus Real Madrid. I’d be worried about this game 12 months ago. But now with the way that Real Madrid are going, with everyone fighting for a place and they’ve got Champions League coming up against the Granada side, who normally do play up to the bigger opposition Roman. But, they’ve found one in so far Granada.

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, Granada are getting some results, but they’re still not doing too well with the new manager. Nothing to do with what we’ve seen in the last few seasons with Diego Martínez. The new coach is really struggling. Robert Martínez is really struggling to get the team to actually play good football. Nothing to, as I said, with other seasons. And that’s why I’m not really confident against this team. They have gotten some draws here, some wins here. But, they’re always really close games, tight wins or tight draws, et cetera. And I think Madrid should have a comfortable win in this game against Granada. It’s an away game, that’s true. And it can always be trickier, but they’re going to have basically all their best players available.

Roman:

Their back line of four with Mendy, David Alaba, Militão and Carvajal is going to be available. So I think that’s going to give them a lot of strength at the back. And in the attack, they basically have everyone except for Rodrygo, who’s a bit doubtful and he might not start and Lucas Vázquez could in his position. But with Benzema and Vinícius upfront, I still think they’re extremely dangerous in attack. And let’s not forget that Kroos came back about month or so ago and he’s been also decisive for this team. So I honestly don’t really like this Granada side. And also if we add to that they have a couple of injuries with Domingos Duarte, Luis Milla and also some doubtful there like Rochina, who’s been their best player in the last few weeks. He’s been scoring most of their goals and assisting. We don’t know if he’ll be available. That could also be an important factor to keep into mind. But I honestly think that Real Madrid should get a relatively comfortable win.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s hope the numbers that are going to flick up on the screen. Pavlos, tell us that maybe both teams score no, Real Madrid win to nil. If Real Madrid keep a clean sheet, what’s Granada not to score plus 130, interested in that?

Pavlos:

There is a lot of contradicting statistics about this match. Granada, they have the third worst XG. Second worst offense. Second worst XG at home. Third worst home offense. Worst XGA. Second worst XGA at home. I mean their numbers are simply among the lowest in the league. They’re among second worst, third worst in pretty much every statistical category. However, they have somehow scored in all five home matches this season. This is really weird because they have generated the second worst XG at home with 0.86. But they have some somehow managed to score six goals in every match against Sevilla. They actually beat Sevilla by one to nil, but that was a fluke. But when you look at the Real Madrid, they have among the best numbers in the league, best XG, best offense, best XG on the road, best away offense.

Pavlos:

However, there is one slight problem that they have the fifth worst away defense with nine conceded goals. They have kept just one clean sheet in seven away matches in the LaLiga this season. They’re leading the league in both teams to score with nine in 12 matches. And six of their seven away matches also had both teams to score. So Granada, they returned to the LaLiga couple of seasons ago. Real Madrid have won all four matches since Granada were promoted. But they kept just one clean sheet in four matches. So this is a very weird matchup because Granada have scored in all home matches, but the rest of the numbers are really terrible. Real Madrid do not have a very stable difference. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Granada somehow scored here, but there’s a lot of contradicting statistics in this match and I’m just, this is a big fat no for me.

Roman:

I just wanted to add, sorry, that during most of the season Real Madrid have always had injured defenders. I think it’s one of the few times all the four main starters are going to be available. That’s why I kind of think like this could change a bit in the sense, because finally they’re going to have their best defense available. Whereas always Mendy was injured, Carvajal was injured, Alaba had some few games he missed. That’s why I think could have also affected the reason why they conceded so many goals.

Flash:

Okay. Sounds like you are talking up your own book. No, go on Pavlos.

Pavlos:

No, I think it’s the healthiest they’ve been all season, Real Madrid. They’re still missing Bale, Ceballos and Díaz, but these are not.

Flash:

They’re not all regulars.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Yeah, exactly.

Flash:

Let’s have a little look at the official picks because that’s fourth and final leg of my parlay, so you’ll see a P. But, it’s a pass from Pavlos. And Real Madrid and both teams to score, no plus 150. Basically Real Madrid win to nil, plus 150. We’re also going to get plus 130 for Granada not to score. It’s the full flag of the parlay for me. And it’s Real Madrid win to nil. So come on, Roman, you win. We win. I win. Okay. Last game, and it is my favorite second side of this season called it after 11 minutes of the first game, Rayo Vallecano versus Mallorca. Rayo Vallecano score every week, twos and threes at home. Last game, nil nil with Celta. Absolutely killed me, Roman. And against this Mallorca side, I think they both have a go. This is like a little mini heavyweight clash where they both think they can knock each other out.

Roman:

Yeah. Yeah. We’re all very disappointed with that draw against Celta Vigo, but I mean, at some point, I guess it had to happen better then. And hopefully, now this will maybe change. That’s why I still going to give Rayo another opportunity because I think they’ve been fantastic at home despite not scoring. The opportunities were there, just a matter of putting it in the net and hopefully against weaker defense possibly such Mallorca’s, I think they could pull a win in this one. And what worries me, especially about this Mallorca side is that they’re going to miss one of their, or their best player I think, so for this season who’s been Baba. In that midfield, he’s been crucial. He’s not only defensively, but also moved the team forward. He’s been sensational so far and he’s going to be out because of a suspension. So I think that’s going to weaken lot that midfield, especially in defensive terms for Mallorca.

Roman:

And of course that’s going to allow, I think Rayo Vallecano, to prowl more freely and attack. It’s true that Falcao, he’s injured. But, Falcao has never really been a main starter for Rayo Vallecano. He has started a few games, but they still can score goals without him. So I still think they have enough quality to do damage. And on the other hand, we do have a Mallorca that likes to go forward. In their last four or five games, at least they’ve scored goals. They’ve been very unlucky conceding late in many of those games. But I mean, they have also quite a good offensive power there with some decent players like Ángel, Daniel Rodríguez, Kang-in Lee, Kubo might be back or is about to be back. I’m not sure he’s going to be for this game, but he’ll be another great player to come back for them. So I think it will be a game where we should see goals and hopefully this time they won’t deceive us like that game against Celta de Vigo.

Flash:

Okay, let’s put the numbers up. But Pavlos, I’m thinking to myself, “A home win. Both teams to score.” And it’s going to be an absolute monster price. Listen, don’t complicate it, it’s minus 120. Both teams are going to be scoring minus 165 for the away side, just to get the one. But plus 100 for the, listen, a lot of people are going to think that Vallecano are scoring twice, a plus 100 is good enough.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Well, they do score. Their XG numbers are the ninth best in the league with 1.35 per game. While at home, they’re again the ninth best XG at home with 1.52 per game. So I definitely see them scoring one and a half goals, two goals just to push the over one and a half. However, they are missing Falcao, as you guys said, but they also have players to replace him. Not such good players, but they have been ecstatic at home. They have the second best home offense with 13 goals. Second best home defense with just two conceded. Five wins, no losses, one draw at home. They have been impressive at home. While Mallorca, they have been rather bad on the road. They have the fourth worst away offense with just five goals.

Pavlos:

Third worst overall difference with 19 conceded goals. Eight worst XGA with 1.36 per game. They concede 1.36 XG per game, which is really, really bad. Mallorca have the second worst XG on the road. They’re even worse on the road, with 1.72 game and the second worst away difference with 12 conceded goals. We have a very good home offense and defense in Rayo Vallecano and a Mallorca who are really bad defensively on the road. Of course, their numbers are just a stretched because they lost to Real Madrid by six to one. But yeah, this is a match where Rayo Vallecano will have a lot of opportunities against this Mallorca my side, especially in the second half.

Pavlos:

Vallecano, they have scored five second half goals and have conceded no goals at home in the second half. While Mallorca, especially on the road, they are really bad. They have scored just one. They have conceded nine second half goals on the road. Also, Mallorca, that’s another interesting stat, they have conceded the most awake goals in the last 15 minutes of the match. They have scored just one and have conceded six. While Vallecano, they have scored the third most goals at home in the same segment. I do believe that we will see a late goal here and it’s going to be scored by Rayo Vallecano. I also like the over one and a half team totals, but, I just won’t go there. I do see Vallecano winning, the numbers say so. As far as Mallorca’s over one and a half, I just don’t see it. I mean, Vallecano have been really good.

Flash:

What about the over two and a half plus 120? Vallecano can score free on their own.

Pavlos:

Yeah, they can. They can. But without Falcao, I don’t know. Falcao is always that extra goal. Even if he scores it himself or he assisted because everyone is looking at Falcao then he slips an assistant. He’s just a game changer. And his absence is just a slight blow for Rayo Vallecano. And Mallorca, they still have great fighting spirit up front. Maybe they can score here, but I think Vallecano one way or the other, they will manage to win this one.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a look at the official picks of game number eight. It is our last game. It’s a pass from me, but I am tempted to go with Vallecano just don’t complicate minus 20. Or score over one and a half goals at plus 100. Vallecano and both teams to score plus 335, that will certainly make your weekend. Plus 335 for Rayo and both teams to score. Now, let me take you back to the start of the show when I said to you, if you go to betus.com and you sign up, you’ll get 125% bonus that you’ll get up to two and a half thousand dollars. All you got to do is put a promo code in of LaLiga 2021. So it’s LaLiga 2021. Up to two and a half thousand dollars will be yours as long. That makes 125% bonus.

Flash:

If this is your first time, then thank you very much, we really appreciate everything. Also, ring the bell and we will notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. Just gives me a little bit of time to say thank you to Roman, thank you to Pavlos. Let’s put up the picks that everyone has gone for, and you’ll just see again, I don’t list them. It’s the parlay at plus 307 for me. Happy to lose one unit, happy to pick up free units. Celta, draw no bet at plus 105. It looks like a really, really good bet for Pavlos. Although you could go with Celta just to win the game at around plus 165. But, that big one, the big one of Rayo and both teams to score plus 335, Roman. Come on, you know we are all Vallecano fans and good luck Roman for Xavi and all of you Barcelona fans in the Camp Nou. Pavlos, have a great week. May all your bets be winners. To everyone in the chat, thanks for your support and tomorrow’s Bundesliga. And on Monday it’s Champions League week five. You take care. And don’t forget to subscribe to our soccer prediction channel.

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