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Expert Predictions & Tips: La Liga, Matchday 15

Flash:

Welcome to BetUS. I’m Flash and it’s La Liga and it’s matchday 15. Now from America’s favorite sports book, we would like to wish you all a happy Thanksgiving to all of our American friends. And as long as you’re in America, then have a great day, plenty turkey, plenty festivities and remember, don’t eat too much, don’t drink too much and certainly don’t talk too much but you can certainly watch too much. So come and watch us because if this is your first time, then please subscribe. That means that we’ll get closer to 3000. Also, get yourselves in the chat. Remember this show is for you. So just get yourselves in there. You’ve got some picks, you’ve got some tips. If you don’t like something, or you’ve got a question you want to ask, then that is your platform.

Flash:

Also, ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you’ll never miss any content again. So when you are sitting there stuffed like the Turkey, ding. Then that’s your little bell to let you know that your content is on its way. I’ve got basically La Liga stats and numbers expert from Greece in Pavlos and Barcelona’s absolute finest. It’s not Xavi, but it is Román from La Liga Lowdown. And see you smiling there, Román because you quite like that.

Román de Arquer:

Because you’re a funny guy, Flash. It’s always like that.

Flash:

Are you laughing with me or at me?

Román de Arquer:

With you of course.

Flash:

Okay, listen. It was a funny week last week. I went three and one in that four team parlay and my team, Sevilla let me down again. Can you believe that, Román? I knew that you were thinking that probably Sevilla was the one to let me down, but for them to actually go and do it absolutely killed me.

Román de Arquer:

And it’s surprising because you were saying during this season that you aren’t convinced with Sevilla. This time, you went for them and it didn’t pay off. It’s true that Sevilla are just very unpredictable at the moment. They are capable of good games and the other day, they finally got their first Champions League victory after struggling so much and it’s a team that’s just not proving the quality that the squad actually has. They should be playing much, much better, should be getting better results, but still in La Liga odds somehow, they’re still near the top, they’re still fighting for that title somehow. And unfortunately that draw against Alaves didn’t help them in any way, but they’re going to want to get back on track and they have a good opportunity against Real Madrid this weekend which won’t be easy, but it’s definitely a game they have to scratch some points away from if they want to keep fighting for that title.

Flash:

Yeah. And little pat on the back for you, providing us with a plus 300, was it? Vallecano to win and both teams to score which was a massive boost. Pavlos, one push, one loser taking it very, very easy but it’s hard to get a grip on these Spanish sides just before Champions League and especially after an international break.

Pavlos:

Yeah, exactly. That’s why I chose two teams that were not engaged in any European matches but Getafe somehow scored four in Cadiz, Cadiz scored none against this Getafe side that are easily one of the weakest teams in the La Liga so far. I still bet on both plays. I don’t know, the numbers were there, the logic was there. I don’t know what happened and Getafe, they had this outburst and we can expect this outburst with teams that are not doing very well. Not all teams are going to finish the season without a win. So we should be expecting a couple of upsets like that here and there but that’s not the normal. So I have to dig in deeper to the numbers and see where there is value.

Flash:

Okay. Well first of all, we’re going to have a little look at the records. There does need to be a couple of amendments to these records because I put Pavlos down as a loss and yet it was a push. So he’s at 6.79 which means the total is not at minus 1.8, it’s just minus 0.08 which means you’d find more down the back of your sofa. Yeah, just basically 2.4 for me, 2.68 for La Liga Lowdown but most of that’s for Román. Román builds up the pot and then his mate, Paco comes along and spends it all, which okay, no problem. As long as it’s a team game. Let’s move on because we’ve got a couple of new idiosyncrasies to the show. So basically, I’ll go into the game like this first game and go Athletic Club versus Granada. Athletic Club is minus 205, Granada at plus 260, the draw at plus 315 and the total is two and a half. Unders or overs, Román? The home side, can they be trusted because they’re not scoring enough goals for me.

Román de Arquer:

It’s true, Athletic are not doing well lately. It has to be pointed out because they haven’t won since just a month ago, the 23rd of October with their last victory against Villarreal and since then, it’s been draws, draws and a loss there, but mostly draws and very few goals in those games. And I feel like its time for them to go back to the good start they had to this season because Athletic, we were saying this. They looked compact, they looked like a solid team fighting. Even though they didn’t have the best of squads, they were still giving out very decent performances. But now there’s been that slump in this month of November, and I think now against Granada, it’s a very good opportunity at home to jump back into track and to get those good results because they have a really good streak against them at home in La Catedral.

Román de Arquer:

And also, Granada we know is not a good team. The coach, Robert Moreno somehow has been pulling out some results, but overall, it’s a team that’s struggling. Nothing to do with the team that Martinez had in previous seasons and a defeat here could really be bad for them and I don’t see them winning honestly, against Athletic Club. It’s true that athletic don’t have the best attacking power in La Liga but they still have enough, I think. And at home, they should be capable of getting a win.

Flash:

Do we see the visitor scoring because last week, you didn’t see him scoring when they were at home and that was the only one that killed you.

Román de Arquer:

It is.

Flash:

Sorry to bring it up.

Román de Arquer:

No, no, it’s okay. I thought that Real Madrid in that game would be good enough and I actually didn’t think Nacho was going to start, so Militao would be starting. But unfortunately, it wasn’t like that and maybe that could’ve been one of the reasons. But in any case, Granada definitely have firepower. They could maybe score a goal but I don’t see them scoring more than one, honestly, if they do manage a goal.

Flash:

Yeah. This looks like a frustrating game unless the home side get in front first, Pavlos. And at minus 205, that’s telling you something but if they’re going to win the game and it’s minus one and minus 1.115. Is that a free hit or do we just go Granada not to score at plus 100?

Pavlos:

Yeah. This looks like a free hit. As Román said, Bilbao are winless in their last four but you have to say that three of those matches were on the road where Bilbao are just not as strong but they’re usually very, very strong at home and against this Granada side, the numbers say that Granada are just really, really bad especially on the road. They have the second worst XG overall with 0.86 per game, third worst offense with 12 goals. Second worst XG on the road with 0.84 per game. Third worst away offense with just five goals on the road and they have the worst XG on the road with 1.84 per game. They also have the worst XGA overall with 1.81. So when you pair that with Bilbao’s excellent numbers on the defense, Bilbao have the best defense with just eight conceded goals. They have the fourth best home defense with just five conceded goals.

Pavlos:

Yes they do have an attacking problem, Bilbao. They have the second worst offense with just 11 goals so far in the season but their defense has been very, very strong and when they play at home, they get even stronger and Granada, they sink when they go on the road and this looks like a lopsided matchup for Bilbao to have the first say in the win. I don’t see a lot of goals here, I do see Granada not scoring. So I like the under half a goal for Granada but you can never know with this Bilbao defense. They’ve only just kept two clean sheets at home this season against Mallorca and Alaves. Of course they conceded twice against Rayo Vallecano who are a very good attacking side. They conceded once against Villarreal and they also conceded one against Cadiz. But Granada, maybe they can score here. They did so against Real Madrid last week but that was a totally different match as it was played at home. But yeah, the numbers on the road are just terrible.

Pavlos:

So I do see Bilbao winning here, possibly with a low scoring like a one-nil, two-nil, something like that. I personally can’t trust Bilbao unless I see just a single win from them. Then I’ll look into them more seriously.

Flash:

Yeah. They’ve not even scored penalties.

Pavlos:

Yeah.

Flash:

That was an absolute killer for me. Now Román, another thing is that I don’t have to go to an official picks page. If you just put your finger up to your name and you’ll see what happens, just do it. There you go, up to your name. There you go, press it. Bang. There you go.

Román de Arquer:

Boom.

Flash:

You like that, didn’t you? Look at Pavlos, he can’t wait to have a selection now. I can see him, he’s like, “I’d like that as well.” Okay.

Román de Arquer:

Glad to be the first one.

Flash:

And under three and a half goals at plus 100 and that’s a clever way to play this because they win two one and that means that you’ve not gone and got sucked into Granada and you’ve only got minus 1.115 for the minus one. In fact, you would’ve got a push for the 2-1. So there, Athletic Club under three-nil. Yes, I don’t see more than three and a half goals, I don’t see four goals in this game. I think these two teams could play twice and we wouldn’t reach four goals. So we’ve got six games. Get yourselves in the chat if you’ve got an opinion.

Flash:

Let’s move onto the next game because this is a game where I’m not in any rush to remember what they did to me last week. It’s Alaves versus Celta. Alaves are plus 195 at home, Celta are plus 160. Celta killed me a couple weeks ago not scoring in Vallecano. Alaves killed me last week by putting in their best performance and they’ve shown green shoots of recovery these last few weeks as well and the draw now is at plus 220. Whenever the draw is anywhere near 200, do not rule it out and the under and over is two, Pavlos.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Well Celta Vigo, we keep talking about them, how they have good units in their side, but they are somehow underperforming really, really bad this season. They’ve only won three matches and those three matches were against teams that are below them in the standings. And Alaves used to be below them in the standings but they’ve gone on a five match unbeaten streak, three wins, two draws and against very good sides. They got away draws against Sevilla and Barcelona which are really, really huge matches and they beat Levante, Elche and Cadiz as well. So something is changing in this Alaves side and I really love that when I see that in teams where they lost most of their matches and then they go on unbeaten streaks and it’s not by luck, it’s not by chance. They’ve worked hard to do that defensively and offensively.

Pavlos:

But if you look at their overall numbers, I think it’s unfair to them because they were doing so poorly at the start of the season. They do have the worst offense with just 10 goals, second worst home offense with just four goals but this Celta Vigo side has been very, very weird and very weird to predict and Alaves have the momentum here. They definitely can hurt Celta Vigo. They can surely stay unbeaten but this is a match where I personally don’t want to get involved because Celta’s numbers have been really, really weird and they can pull an upset win from nowhere. But yeah, Alaves are looking much more healthy right now. They’re on a five match unbeaten streak as I said.

Pavlos:

Last week, I said that last season at the same moment, I think it was late November that they also went on a five match unbeaten streak. They’re not very streaky overall over the past few seasons. I went down I think back to 2008 to find another such a big unbeaten streak but yeah, they have the momentum. Celta Vigo are just really, really bad this season. I don’t know what’s wrong with them. Of course most of the points have come on the road for whatever that means but yeah, they have a bad defense, a bad offense. I just don’t see them, maybe they can take a draw from this match but Alaves, they are on a very good run and I think that this will continue here.

Flash:

Román, it’s Alaves or nothing. The Pick’em at plus 105. I was expecting that to be around minus 120 because of Alaves one, being at home and Celta starting games so slowly. If Celta do anything, it’s normally because they’ve kept the teams at nil-nil at halftime and they score one or two when the home side’s actually going to go and have a go. Missed so many chances at Vallecano but for me, I want to ride momentum, I want to be with a side that are confident and playing at home.

Román de Arquer:

Definitely. If you had to go for one of the sides at this moment, it has to be Alaves because despite a poor start, they’re finally in pretty good form now. They’re getting results, five in a row without losing, that’s very good taking into account where they were coming from. A team that seemed clearly like they were going to go down and out of nowhere, they’ve come out with this energy and this capability even scoring goals that they didn’t have before. Even though they’ve been given lots of penalties which have helped them in a way, that means they’re still going forward, they’re in the opponents box and they’re generating. So that’s good for them.

Román de Arquer:

And this is a game where I would personally want to stay away from because I just don’t know where it’s going to go because it’s true that Alaves are on a good streak but I just don’t have the confidence yet in this team to give me the credibility or reliability to keep winning, to keep getting results and Celta on the other hand as we always say, very unpredictable, capable of the best, capable of the worst. You don’t know where they’re going to come, what they’re going to do. They can score, Aspas can have a great day and or Aspas can have a terrible day and the team plays very badly. So in that sense, if I had to pick a side, I guess Alaves at this moment, although a draw could also be quite tempting but with Celta, you never know. So I’m just going to pass this one.

Flash:

Yeah. And the market’s at two, we’re going to see that as a bit of a factor up this week because whenever the market is at two, surely you must just go over and expect a push. But what I’ll do first is I’ll just press that button there and is my button working? I want to see what the official pick is. It’s Alaves draw, no bet at plus 105. Didn’t wan to go near the two because I thought that Alaves could actually win this game one-nil or worst case scenario, it’d be 1-1 and I didn’t really fancy my push. If I’m going to get my push, I want my push at plus money which is plus 105, Alaves draw, no bet.

Flash:

Let’s move onto game number three because here is the game that I think is completely bonkers. Valencia versus Rayo Vallecano. Valencia are plus 100, fair enough. Vallecano, plus 300. It will have its suitors. Draw, plus 250 but look at the total, over two goals, minus 155. That was minus 135, then it went minus 140 and now it’s moved to minus 155 and under two at plus 135. I actually took this at over two goals at minus 140. Can’t believe they’ve even put the line up at two, it should be at two and a half because Vallecano normally score home and away and the way they play on the front foot Román, Valencia are perfect to hit them on the counter. There’s got to be over two goals. So you go two, maybe put it in a parlay, over two goals in the game at minus 155.

Román de Arquer:

This is definitely a very tempting game and especially if you believe that Rayo can actually score those goals or even get a win or something like that because those numbers are really very juicy. Although it’s true that Rayo aren’t as good away as they are at home, but still as you said, they’re very dangerous team, they still have a lot of offensive power. They like to go forward, they like to propose football. They don’t like to wait, sit back and just get bored and defend. They’re still going to generate opportunities, they’re going to go and shoot towards the opponent’s goalkeeper. So in that sense, I do think that goals are likely in this game.

Román de Arquer:

It all depends on also what Valencia we see because sometimes Valencia are a really good side who could manage a two-nil win at home against Villarreal or another day, they’ll concede three goals against Atletico or whoever. So it also depends on what performance they give but Rayo Vallecano overall seem always very tempting. The only setback for me is that Dani Trejo isn’t available. He has possibly been their best player this season with Alvaro Garcia and he got suspended in the last game. So that’s a bit of a setback in that midfield because this guy likes to go forward, likes to get goals, likes to assist and not having him in that midfield is definitely a bit of a problem but they still have a good squad. Goals are probably the safest way to go if you want to pick something in this game.

Flash:

Yeah Pavlos, couldn’t agree with Román more to be honest. I don’t like the money line of Valencia at plus 100 because I would like to go with it, but I don’t like Vallecano is at plus 300 because I’d like to go with it. And the draw at plus 350, I’d like to go with that as well and that’s the problem I have, that all three of the main lines look like they’re bang on and they are really to entice you. Whichever way you think about this game’s going to go, one of them three could well tickle your fancy. But for me, I just think there’s over two goals, it’s a free hit.

Pavlos:

Yeah. I believe there’s going to be goals as well. When you look at the numbers, Valencia, they have ninth worst XG but they have the fourth best offense with 21 goals. Ninth worst XG at home but again, fourth best home offense with 13 goals. Their XGA numbers, they have the seventh worst XGA in the league with 1.39 per game. Fourth worst defense with 20 conceded goals, third worst XGA home with 1.58 per game, fifth worst home defense with eight conceded and when you look at Rayo on the road, they have the third worst away defense with 12 conceded goals. So this is a match even though Rayo Vallecano, they’re not doing very, very well on the road, they have scored in four of their last five away matches and against this kind of bad Valencia defense, I think this match starts at one-one. So I like both teams to score here. I like the over in each team total. I think there’s going to be goals and I think the over two was just a mistake from the bookmaker.

Flash:

Well yeah, they jumped on it. Minus 135 into minus 155 is a hell of a move. I also wrote down here, Valencia to score over one and a half goals at plus 125. So let’s lean forward, let’s put our fingers on our names. Bang, there you go. And let’s see what flicks around. Over two goals will be at minus 155 even though I’ve got minus 140. Both teams to score, minus 105, looks like pretty solid there from Pavlos, but Román, he’s staying blank, he’s not interested in this game. Let’s see if he’s interested in next game because it’s almost like a mirror image, but the numbers are a little bit better, more enticing. It’s Mallorca versus Getafe. Mallorca at plus 130, Getafe at plus 280 and the draw at plus 190. That tells you it’s going to be a draw but is it going to be a 2-2- because look, over two goals is at plus 110 and I’m just going to skip because plus 110 of the over two goals, it must go against every number that we have, Pavlos.

Pavlos:

Yeah, exactly. Mallorca, fourth worst offense with 14 goals. Fifth worst home offense with eight goals but they’re playing against a Getafe side that have the fifth worst defense with 19 conceded, 10th worst XGA with 1.35 per game. Getafe also have the fifth worst away defense with 10 conceded goals. Mallorca, they have the third worst defense with 22 conceded goals. We’re just talking about two very bad defensive sides and Getafe of course, they’re coming off a four nil victory against Cadiz. So that will be a huge boost for everyone in that squad while Mallorca, they concede a lot of late goals. We also saw that against Rayo Vallecano. Well, they did also score a late goal as well but yeah, Mallorca, both teams have scored in the last five matches. Getafe are just a very bad defense, Mallorca also have a very bad defense. So I’m not sure how this price is placed at plus 110 and the over, two goals. I was expecting a much shorter price. So I definitely see goals here.

Pavlos:

There’s got to be a way for both teams to score here but maybe Mallorca two-nil. I don’t see Getafe winning by two-nil. We just say last week, what we saw last week, I think it was an anomaly where they scored four goals possibly because Cadiz, they fell apart in the second half. But yeah, when two very bad defenses clash against one another even if they have bad offenses, if there are gaps at the back, there’s got to be goals, right? So I love that number.

Flash:

Yeah. Román, I see this from time to time with sides when they’re going along and they’re doing absolutely nothing. And this is not just in last week’s game, it’s in other games as well with Getafe because we know how dangerous they are if they click. They seemed to reverse into a system last week where right before your very eyes, players grew. It was almost like a flower’s been sleeping all through winter and then bang, the sun come out and they blossomed scoring four in one game. I’ve got this game being maybe a 3-2 or something bonkers like that.

Román de Arquer:

It’s very strange. I agree with what Pavlos said about the anomaly, with that four-nil win against Cadiz. I think nobody at all expected that kind of a scoreline in the end and that’s what worries me a bit. It’s so unexpected that suddenly, Getafe don’t win by one-nil, by two-nil, they win by four-nil. So does this mean that suddenly, they’ve blossomed as you said and now they’re going to start getting those really good results or is it just a one off game? That’s why in my case, I was a bit worried although that over two goals that looks very, very tempting, I have to say. But at the same time, Getafe have been really, really, really poor away from home only scoring two goals in seven games.

Román de Arquer:

So I just want to wait a little bit before I push those buttons with Getafe and I want to wait and see what they’re capable of doing because it’s true in front, they have a Mallorca which aren’t doing well. They haven’t won in a long, long time despite a decent start to the season and they’re struggling a lot, but playing at home against Getafe could also be their moment. So it could be the case where they score easily over two goals but I’m just going to wait it out and see what the version of Getafe we’re getting in the next few weeks to decide if betting on them makes sense.

Flash:

It’s almost like the stars are aligning for both sides because Getafe, if you’re going to try and back up that four-nil win, you would want to play Mallorca. If you’re Mallorca and you want to get a win, you want to be playing at home because that’s where you’re going to get your points if your La Liga status is going to stay intact. So listen, I can see Getafe winning 3-2, I can see Mallorca winning 2-1 but both of them, they add up to over two goals at plus 110. So for me, I’m just going to press that and it’s going to come up straight away with over two goals at plus 110. Over two goals at plus 110 for Pavlos, we’re both in the same boat. Román’s saving up, we know that, but I’m sure he’s going to have another selection very, very soon.

Flash:

So game number five, couldn’t go near this game. Villarreal versus Barcelona. Villarreal are plus 170, Barcelona plus 160, the draw at plus 245. The goals are set at under over two and a half. Román, you are the Barcelona man. Got a nice victory in a derby, one-nil, clean sheet. Then another clean sheet in midweek. Are we going to see a different type of Barcelona under Xavi until it clicks?

Román de Arquer:

I think definitely, it’s just been two games. There’s still a long, long way to go and the manager can only do so much in a short period of time, but we’ve already seen some flashes of what he wants to bring to the team. And honestly, the attitude of Barcelona has changed 180 degrees. It’s nothing to do with what it was with Koeman. You can see that players are super motivated, that the youngsters, the older guys, they want to prove that this team can go forward. And I have to say, they were a bit maybe unlucky we could say in that game in the Champions League. They got a very tight win against Espanyol but I think Villarreal is a team that historically favors Barcelona a lot.

Román de Arquer:

Villarreal haven’t beaten Barcelona in the last 24 of games in La Liga. That’s a very, very big number of games with the Groguets not winning and it’s always a team that likes to go forward. Villarreal doesn’t wait back, they like to attack, they like to try and get their goals and that’s always been good for Barcelona because of those spaces that open up make things much more easier. And that’s why taking into account that Villarreal still aren’t going through a good period of football, they’re still struggling to get good results. They lost against Manchester United, despite controlling the game and having maybe more opportunities, but they weren’t capable of ending or scoring those goals. They’re lacking a lot of quality upfront without Gerard Moreno who’s still injured.

Román de Arquer:

So that’s why I think this might be an opportunity for Barcelona to keep recovering positions in La Liga because they were down at the bottom. Now they got three points against Espanyol. They’re getting closer to those European positions and a win against Villarreal would definitely help a lot. And I think that with Xavi, we’re going to see a much better Barcelona in the future And I think this could be positive for Barca.

Flash:

I think it’s Barca or nothing. I can’t go near this Yellow Submarine. I went near them midweek again, honestly. How many times have I got put my hand in this dog’s mouth? I’ve got no fingers left on my left hand Pavlos, because I have so much belief in them. They’ve only won once, they’ve had six draws, then they can’t score against a Man United side who cannot keep a clean sheet for love nor money. So for me, it’s Barcelona at plus 160 or Pick’em at minus 115. Couldn’t go near the under or over two and a half because I can’t trust Villarreal to contribute.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Villarreal, I think they were scared in that Manchester United match midweek. I think they played for a draw. Ronaldo beat them in the behind.

Flash:

Individual errors because they didn’t take their chances early.

Pavlos:

Yeah, yeah. Exactly. But playing against Barcelona. Barcelona, they need a win. They’re currently sitting seventh spot, still outside the European spots. They need a win here. Villarreal are sitting at the 12th spot, bottom side of the league table. They also need points. But yeah, this Villarreal side has had surprisingly solid numbers. I’ll say they have the seventh best XG with 1.42 per game, seventh best offense with 15 goals, sixth best XG at home, fifth best home offense with 11 goals. Their defensive numbers are even better. They have the fifth best XGA with 1.22 per game, fourth best overall difference with 13 conceded goals, second best XGA at home with 0.88 per game and the fifth best-

Flash:

You know what all these numbers tell you? That if you bet on them, you’re not going to win. And yet you should. See everything you’re saying?

Pavlos:

Yeah.

Flash:

Everything is telling you that the Yellow Submarine are a top six side and they’re sitting in 12th. That is the anomaly of football.

Pavlos:

Yeah. That’s also very weird and Barcelona also have very weird numbers, but their away numbers are just a little bit off the charts because they’re the only team that they have played five matches on the road while all other teams have played six and seven matches. That’s why Barcelona have the second worst away offense with just four goals so far. But again, they’ve played fewer matches on all the rest of the league. But also on the road, they have the third best away defense with just seven conceded goals, six best defense overall. So these are both very good defensively, not top three or top four, but still very good defensive sides. Quite good offensively. This is a weird match to predict. If I had to make a pick here, maybe I’d go with the under two and a half goals.

Pavlos:

Xavi with this Barcelona side back to back clean sheets against Espanyol and Benfica. Maybe they should have conceded in both matches to did keep clean seats. This is just a weird match to predict between a Villarreal side, they can’t get any momentum this season. And Barcelona, yes they’re unbeaten in the last five going back and forth between a draw and a win. Following that succession, now it’s their time to win but this is a match where I just don’t see a lot of goals. I think Villarreal will be again, very, very defensively. Barcelona, their defense is really good on the road. It’s their offense that needs to be adjusted a little bit. But yeah, I think there’s going to be very few goals here, but this is a match where I’d rather watch it on television than bet on it.

Flash:

It’s one of them games that normally you’d queue up to watch. But Román, you’re a supporter of Barcelona. I’m not sure that I really want to watch it. Oh hello, what are you doing?

Román de Arquer:

A little work.

Flash:

You’ve got us a little pick here, have you? I don’t even know why your number… Do that again, press that button again, please.

Román de Arquer:

There you go.

Flash:

Barcelona draw, no bet at minus 135. I’ve got this game down as being 1-1, maybe 2-1 but I’ve got Villarreal as being very pedestrian. I think that Barcelona’s midfield could be where it’s at. Román, just quickly. Who’s going to score the goals for Barca with so many injuries?

Román de Arquer:

Well, that’s a very good question. That’s why what Pavlos said makes a lot of sense because there’s not many guys to score the goals at the moment. So we have to see what the team is capable of doing. But what we have, Memphis has to lead the team as he’s been doing up until now and he is definitely the best guy we have in attack. And it’s true that Dembele, he got his first few minutes in the Champions League and he looked pretty sharp, to be honest despite being a long time away from the field. So he could maybe have some more minutes but not too many because in any moment, he could be injured and we might lose him. And watch out for those youngsters that played against Espanyol, Abde especially in that wing position. He was extremely good going into the box and getting some very decent chances. But of course we’re missing Ansu Fati, we’re missing other important guys. Braithwaite, not so important, Kun Aguero, et cetera. So that’s definitely a problem we’re still having.

Flash:

Okay, well it’s Barcelona draw no bet at minus 135. That’s game number five. Let’s go to the final game and it is Real versus Sevilla. Real Madrid, minus 140. Trap or a gift? They’re absolutely flying every single competition, keeping clean sheets, scoring goals against a Sevilla side who in midweek, back to their old self, two-nil score. Don’t let the opposition score and they’re plus 390, but the draw is a massive plus 310. Román, Real Madrid versus Sevilla. I’m looking and thinking Sevilla, they cannot match Real Madrid because Real Madrid’s confidence, their pace and their bench. And as this is where I’m thinking, the bench is where this game could change.

Román de Arquer:

It’s definitely a tricky one. And of course at the moment, I think Real Madrid are definitely the safer side to go with but Sevilla aren’t an easy team to beat anyway and especially in these kind of games. They like to perform, they like to surprise their opponents and they know they have to win if they want to stay in that title fight till the end. So it’s a very interesting game to watch. Not so sure about betting because I just don’t really know. It’s true that Real Madrid do have a more reliable team at the moment, they’re playing much better, their bench is deep enough. Sevilla’s is deep also, but they’re having lots of injuries. En-Nesyri who’s still injured, Jesus Navas injured, Suso injured. That’s definitely-

Flash:

And there you go. Their bench is deep with names, but not deep. Sevilla’s bench is not deep with players that have come on and influence a game in the positive. I always think Sevilla’s bench is one of those that comes in and manages the game whereas you look at Real Madrid.

Román de Arquer:

You do have players. Guys like Papu Gomez who was fantastic at Atalanta, unfortunately he hasn’t really found his groove here. Lamela has maybe one great game and then the next time when he comes on, he’s just-

Flash:

You’re backing up my argument here.

Román de Arquer:

Yeah, yeah. I’m just saying they have the potential, but unfortunately they’re not capable of bringing it out. The squad should be doing much better for me this season than they have even though they’re still there fighting to qualify in the Champions League top position in La Liga. Somehow, Lopetegui is managing enough to get through but against a team like Real Madrid, it does feel like they’re going to suffer. Although what worries me slightly is that injury Alaba had in the knee against Sheriff. We don’t know if he’s going to be available and he’s been fantastic for Real Madrid, not just defending but also his scoring goals. So that would be an important setback, but still, Real Madrid have a better side, a better team and at the moment, better form we could say.

Flash:

Yeah. I think minus 140 is growing on me, to be honest Pavlos. Also, I might be a little bit too brave but Sevilla not to score is at plus 160. I can see this being a Madrid two-nil.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Well, the total is confusing because all of Sevilla matches, I think they played what? Nine away matches this season in all competitions. They’ve all been under two and a half goals while around Madrid have played seven home matches in all competitions and only two of them were under two and a half goals. And the numbers, they’re actually spectacular between these two sides. Real Madrid have the best XG, the best offense with 32 goals, the best XG at home, the third best home offense with 13 goals. But they’re up against a Sevilla side that are very, very good defensively. They have the second best XGA, the second best defense, the second best XGA on the road and the best away defense. So you have the best defense in the league with spectacular numbers indeed clashing against the best defense in the league.

Pavlos:

So this doesn’t look when you look at numbers alone and how they’ve done a decision. This doesn’t look like a match where you want to get involved in goals but why do I like Real Madrid? They’ve been in very good form lately. Five straight wins in all competitions. Of course not many good names in there, Elche, Shaktar Donetsk, Rayo, Granada, Sheriff. But still, it’s a big winning streak but my main argument for picking Real Madrid here is the fact that they have been stunning as hosts against Sevilla over the years. Of course last season, they played for a 2-2 draw but that was the first draw in quite a while. Real Madrid, they’re unbeaten in the last 14 matches as hosts against Sevilla, they’ve won 13 of those. They’ve kept seven clean sheets and dating back to 1989, Real Madrid have 28 wins, three losses and two draws.

Pavlos:

So no matter the circumstances, no matter if they’ve played a Champions league match before. If they’re playing after, if it’s in between the international break. Real Madrid, they always find a way to beat Sevilla at home in all competitions, in Copa Del Rey, in La Liga, in Super Cups, in everything. They are just really, really hard to beat at home. And Sevilla on the road, they haven’t been very, very well. As of late, they’ve won just I think three of their last nine away matches in all competitions just against Celta, Betis and Getafe. They have three wins, one loss and five draws. Maybe Sevilla, they play mad defense and they keep Real Madrid scoreless but I just don’t see that happening. Real Madrid have only failed to score in two of their home matches this season against Osasuna and Villarreal but they’re firing on all cylinders and I think it’s the unstoppable force against the immovable object. So I think I’m going to go Real Madrid in this one. There’s just a lot of numbers and some intuition telling me to do.

Flash:

Yeah. They’re minus 140 is that intuition. Listen, let’s not let greed get in the way of a good selection because I’ve got four teams wrote down, Chelsea, Liverpool, Bayern and Madrid. I think they’re the top four sides in Europe and you’ve got them against a Sevilla side who are not actually pulling up any trees. Now obviously Sevilla could return to their form of last year, but what a place and what a time to do it. So what’s your selection, please, Pavlos. There you go. Liking that system, that’s a good technique, that. Real Madrid money line, minus 140. It was almost like a little parlay coming in there. Maybe Real Madrid and Valencia or Real Madrid and Athletic Club. Maybe there’s plenty for us to mull over.

Flash:

Let me take you back to the start of the show when I was happy to say happy Thanksgiving to all of our American friends. Please if this is your first time, then subscribe. We want to get to 3,000 subscribers on the BetUS soccer channel and ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you will not miss any content because we will notify you and that’s right across all of the sports channels that we’re going to be throwing out here at BetUS sportsbook. I want everyone to have a great Thanksgiving. Maybe not turkey, maybe chicken, maybe ham or pork, maybe vegetarian type food and maybe not just alcohol, maybe have something soft but whatever you do, enjoy, give those loved ones a hug and may all your bets be winners.

Flash:

As you can see there, that Alaves draw no bet at plus 105 is probably my best one over Mallorca and Getafe over two goals. Cannot see anything there. Real Madrid at minus 140 and Athletic Club and under three. I’ll tell you what, what is that? That’s two, that’s two, that’s three. That probably pays about 235, that double. So Real Madrid and Athletic Club, might have a little look at that. Román, we’ll see you again very soon from the La Liga Lowdown. Pavlos, have a great weekend. May all your bets be winners and gents, I’ll see you both next week, I hope. Is it Román? Is it you next week or is Paco going to show his face?

Román de Arquer:

Let’s see. I’m not sure what to talk with Paco, let’s see if he can finally come back and join you guys.

Flash:

Yeah, because he’s a very busy man as you are as well but you seem to be able to find time for me. Okay.

Román de Arquer:

Always, Flash.

Flash:

Okay. From everyone at BetUS, we’re America’s favorite sports book because we want all your bets to be winners. You take care.

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