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Robert:

Welcome to BetUS [foreign language 00:00:05] It’s Laliga match day 16, and we are America’s favorite sports book. So please, if you like this video and you enjoy it, then please subscribe because we only need 105 more to get to 3000. And then obviously when we get to 3000. I see the eyes move yet. We are growing at alarming rate. So it’s all about BetUS soccer odds channel and you will never miss anything. Today, it’s Laliga, tomorrow will be Bundesliga, Champions League on Monday, and then we start again. And we’re only 11 months off the World Cup, which we cannot wait, in Qatar. And this will be your home for the World Cup of 2022. My guests today are Pavlos, who goes through all the stats, the numbers, and makes sure that they then attribute value to his picks and Barcelona’s lucky Mascot in Roman.

Robert:

Romans has been smiling. And since he’s been on here, they’ve been on a hell of a run. We got rid of Paco. Paco was the Jonah. So if you ring the bell it means that we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. So sit back, get at your tea and your biscuit and right in the chat because remember, this is your show. So if you’ve got a tip, a lean, or a pick or a question, then get it wrote in there. And then I’ll ask the boys. We’re going to cover six games.

Robert:

And there’s some unbelievable value by the way this week because there’s sides that have been underestimated. And there’s also some teams that have been, I would say over… Is there such a word such as overestimated? Is that the right type of word Romans? Not some kind of I’m going to Romans, not you Pavlos.

Roman:

I mean, you can always overestimated, I guess sometimes seems like teams are doing too well, but the reality is that any moment they could slip up and make mistakes. So it’s a possibility.

Robert:

Well, it was a mad weekend because Barcelona won, Real Madrid won, we had Atletico Madrid scoring four. I mean Hallie’s comic came around the last time they scored four. So all over sudden Atletico Madrid are thrown in the under two and a half goals right out of the window. How was your weekend Pavlos?

Pavlos:

It was great. I was doing one with my selections. We hit the post in that over two in the… And the only goalless match actually the [inaudible 00:02:23] Getafe goal. Robert, it was an excellent week. I think we all made some great picks and looking forward to this week. Well, there is a lot of value.

Robert:

There is a lot of value. And then the value basically comes from maybe the big team’s not keeping clean sheets in these games where, I mean, yes, they can still win, but the opposition know that they cannot lay down. They’ve got to go and have a go.

Roman:

Definitely, I mean, the top teams are conceding goals and that’s a fact. So there’s definitely a possibility that those defenses keep up with that. I wouldn’t say mediocre, but not great level of what you’d expect from a top side.

Roman:

And it’s true that Real Madrid concede, for example, the day against athletic club in this midweek match , but there were lots of good opportunities and the goal could have come in any moment. And we know that Real Madrid isn’t having their best season in terms of defense. Same goes for Atletico Madrid. Same goes for Barcelona. Same goes for practically all the sides at the top. So I mean, goals are definitely something to look in two for this match day.

Robert:

Okay. Let’s have a little look at the records. And when you look at the records, I’ve got to take one of Pavlos because I actually gave him a loss when it was a push. So he’s at minus 601, that means his total is at minus 1.57, which means that we are really at parity and we are ready to rock and roll. Look at Laliga low down now. Plus 2.38. That’s all down to Roman. Paco comes in. Once Roman gets that up to about five or six, Paco will be back and he’ll be having like free units on this and free units and they just spending Roman’s money. Okay. So we’re doing okay. And it’s only at minus 1.57, not minus 2.57 Apollos still sitting there from, I think the opening week, end up plus 1.63. Let’s kick on with our first game because this first game is nothing to do with sentiment.

Robert:

It’s nothing to do with having a personal opinion about the teams. It’s all about the numbers. Which, is the way to go. It’s Granada versus Alaves. Granada at plus 155. Alaves at plus 210. And the draw at plus 210. Anytime we see the number on the draw, close to 200, you go blind. The numbers are telling you, but in this case, the under and over two goals, Roman, both of these can score. I’m not seeing the under, I think there is a minimum of two goals in here. So the minus 125 is a must.

Roman:

I mean, off late these two sides are getting goals. But at the same time, they’re two sides, which aren’t too reliable. Although Alaves has proved of late that they’re doing really well. Despite that defeat against Celta Vigo where maybe they deserved a bit more. It was a bit harsh in them. And they’re doing really well and Granada are very unpredictable. They get smashed by Real Madrid. Then they get a good draw away from home against Athletic club.

Roman:

So, it’s hard to predict. That’s why for me in this case, it’s a tricky game because historically Granada has good results against Alaves. But at the moment, I think Alaves are definitely at a better level. And also Granada have a lot of injuries for this weekend and also a couple of players, which are suspended. So that’s a bit worrying that means that the manager, Robert Moreno won’t be able to put on the best 11 in this game. Which, is a crucial game for them because I mean, it’s two sides that are possibly going to be fighting to avoid relegation right until the end. So that’s why for me, in this case, it’s a tricky game. But if I had to go somewhere, I guess goals would be a good possibility because I do think both teams are scoring of late and they should keep that up.

Robert:

Yeah. And this is another one named games, Pavlos that we like to say, both teams fancy, they turn up and they think they can win. So plus 155 for the home side. Okay they can use home advantage there. But plus 210 for the visitors, tells you it is really… I mean, there you go. It’s a pick them. Draw no bet. It’s a pick them. So I mean, a lot of people are going to fancy Alaves at plus 210 but when the mark is… You’re just looking at two goals for a bush, it seems like a free hit.

Pavlos:

Yeah. It would seem like a free hit but as Roman said Granada are missing quite a few players and their numbers have been quite terrible this season. And now with the absence of some key players. I mean, they’re missing one of their best defenders Sánchez, who is also their second scorer with just two goals. Which goes to show that, what a terrible of offense that Granada have. They’re also missing Rochina who is first in assists with just three, but still is one of their most creative players. And there are also four more players I believe that are out in this match.

Pavlos:

Well, Alaves also have a crucial absence with Duarte who is suspended. And he has played the second most minutes in the defense this season for Alaves. But yeah, Granada, I can’t understand why they are the favorites in this match especially with all these absences. And with Alaves playing some really good soccer lately. And also this is a match where it’s actually a six pointer, meaning that both sides are expected to fight, to avoid their relegation. And if one wins not only do they get three points, but they also take three points from the other side. So in my opinion, these are weird odds on Alaves. And I wouldn’t blame anyone for picking Alaves here on the pick them.

Pavlos:

But yeah, Granada, they have the second worst XG, fifth worst offense, second worst XG at home, third worst home offense. I mean, they’re really struggling offensively, but their defense is also really bad. They have the worst XGA, the third worst defense. The worst XGA at home, the third worst home defense.

Pavlos:

Well, Alaves they’re not very flashy. They have the second worst offense in the league with just 11 goals. The third worst away offense with just five goals. But they’ve been playing much better lately. And as you guys said, maybe they deserved at least a draw from that Celta match last week. So yeah, there could be goals here, but maybe Alaves are the one to score them. And they should have probably the upper hand regarding result here.

Robert:

Yeah. Both teams to score, and over is another one because listen, let’s go from years, gone by Granada’s Laliga status has all been down to their home form. They have to win these home games. No one likes to really go there. Listen big, small or even in different sides go there. They don’t care. They look to get three points. Now Alaves you just give me all their of numbers and they might as well Jack it in as well. If you go and buy them numbers, but they’ve been playing with a bit of confidence and they’re playing like, we want to go forward and we want to score. Pavlov,

Pavlos:

Oh yes. I thought you meant Roman. I was looking to start. Yeah. Getting the over here is definitely something to look at. But again, I’m really worried about Granada’s play making abilities and goal scoring abilities. If anything this could be like zero to win for Alaves. But again, Alaves don’t have a really good defense. Even, though they actually have the fourth best away defense with just eight conceded goals. But they also have the fourth worst XGA on the road with 1.69 per game, which tells us that they allow a lot of scoring opportunities to their opponents. And maybe Granada can get a shot or two here, but this is much where I’d rather stay very away.

Robert:

Okay. Well, listen, I’m the only one that’s actually got an official pick here and it’s all to do with the numbers and nothing to do with personal opinion. All my eyes, it’s over two goals. Minus 125. The average is like 2.6 in the league. So why would I not take over two at minus 125-

Roman:

Not pushing on the button flash.

Robert:

Sorry, mate.

Roman:

Don’t you have to push the button.

Robert:

Yeah. Did you not see my hand then? Look, it comes up. Look.

Roman:

Okay. Okay. Sorry. I missed it. Missed it. I must have been looking elsewhere.

Robert:

Exactly. I was pressing it. I promise. Okay. Let’s move on to game number two. Because It’s an absolute cracker. It doesn’t matter who you support. Even the neutral of this game. It’s Sevilla versus Villarreal. Sevilla [inaudible 00:10:25] don’t complicate it most would say against a Villarreal outside plus 310, who need and have definite eyes on midweek coming up. The draw at plus 255. Do your numbers Pavlos say goals and over because I was very shocked to see that over two and a half goals was plus 105.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Well they do say that, but there are a couple of things that make me want to steer away from the complete over two and a half goals because Sevilla are one of the best defense in this league. They have the best defense with just 11 conceded goals. Second best XGA with just 1.09 per game. At home, they’ve been equally good. At home allowing just 1.08 goals per match. They have the fifth best home defense with six considered goals. They’re still missing En-Nesyri and Jesús Navas who are two of their possibly best players upfront. However, Rafa Mir has been doing a really good job for this Sevilla side. Since En-Nesyri went down, he scored, I think four goals and one assist in six or seven matches since En-Nesyri went down. What worries me also is the fact that Jesús Navas is also out and has been out for quite a while now, but that doesn’t seem to bother Sevilla all that much.

Pavlos:

For what it’s worth, Jesús Navas was leading the team in expected assist with 4.01. And to put that into perspective, the second best player in that side is Marcos Acuña with 1.83. So there’s a huge gap in creating chances with Jesús Navas out. Now, Sevilla at home, they did keep three clean seats, but they were against Osasuna, Espanyol, and Rayo Vallecano. But they did concede a couple against Alaves. They conceded three against Levante. One against Valencia and also in the Champions League, they conceded twice against Lille. Once against Salzburg. They did keep a clean state against Wolfsburg, but the Germans are kind of struggling a little bit.

Pavlos:

So yeah, I do see Sevilla conceding here. Let’s take a look at Villarreal who I have to say they did an amazing job in the cup. In the Copa del Rey midweek. They destroyed Victoria, which is just a minor side by eight to Nil.

Pavlos:

The big news there is that Gerard Moreno is back. He was only used for 30 minutes. He did score a goal. And I have to just talk about his numbers from last season because was the season he’s only played five matches and there’s not really much to look at, but last season he was amazing in every statistical category for players. He led the team in scoring with 23 league goals while the second best scorer was Alcacer with six. So, that’s a huge gap. He smashed the exit numbers with 19.53 while Alcacer had 8.92. He was also first in expected assist with 7.81 while Parejo was second with 5.41. So this is a huge boost. We’ve been expecting Moreno to come back for the entire season. I think this is going to be a huge boost for this Villarreal side.

Pavlos:

Villarreal numbers haven’t been very good on the road, but that’s mainly due to the absence of Gerard Moreno. Villarreal have the ninth worst XGA year on the road, but they have the third best away defense with seven conceded goals. They have the ninth worst XG on the road with 1.19 per game. And the second worst away often with just four goals so far. But I do expect that to change. Again, Moreno is one of the… He is a talent manic player like Ibrahimović. Whenever he’s out the whole team struggles, but whenever he’s back, he’s somehow, he’s beneficial for the entire team defense included. So I do expect to see goals here.

Robert:

Yeah. The big thing for me now is that Moreno is back. Have they rushed him back though Roman because no one was expecting him back this side of Christmas. Yes. He finishes off all of their good work. I’m looking at over to our goals thinking at plus 105, if Gerard starts. Oh, yeah Gerard Moreno if he starts then plus 105 is a great bet. Also, I expect Sevilla at plus 100. How’d you see the game going because these two match up great.

Roman:

Well, I’m not sure if he’s going to start, but he definitely will play some minutes in this game. And I mean, I don’t know if you guys saw Villarreal against Barcelona the other week. But I mean, they were fantastic. And honestly, I think they deserve to win, not the draw, not the defeats. They deserve to win that game. They had control over most of it. They had really dominated Barcelona. And if they can play at this level against Sevilla side, which they are actually really good against away, usually at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan get some decent results there. And that’s definitely a positive.

Roman:

And also we know that Villarreal are desperate to get back on track and now with Gerard Moreno. I think it’s perfect timing. Honestly, it won’t be easy of course, because as Pavlos said, Sevilla defensively are one of the strongest sides, but they did have a tough Copa del Rey game yesterday against Córdoba and mostly substitutes were playing, but then given it was so difficult they had to bring in guys like Ocampos, like Koundé, like the Diego Carlos to try and get the win in the end because they really struggled till the last minute.

Roman:

And maybe you know that changed Lopetegui’s plan slightly for this game against Villarreal. He was trying to save all his best players, but in the end they got some extra minutes on their legs. And in this sense, I think it’s a tricky game. I’m not sure if there’ll be goals, if there’ll be few goals, it could be a nil nil. It could be a three two. That’s why I’m not really sure which way to go in this match and I’m avoiding it, but it’s definitely going to be an entertaining game. And I kind of feel like Villarreal could get something out of this game because Sevilla have been very irregular this season. We’ve been seeing it constantly good results and suddenly sloppy moments. So that’s why I just can’t trust Sevilla at the moment basically.

Robert:

And both teams to score an over for me. I think both teams score. Don’t think there’s any clean sheets, two twos on the cards. So if you want to go over one and a half goals on the team totals and go with that, but for me, it’s definitely going to be both teams to score. Let’s flick them over our official picks. Yeah. Over two and a half goals at plus 105 and both teams to score for Pavlos at minus 115. I think if you combine them, you’re not going to go far wrong Roman, as we know he’s saving up, but I’m sure with the next game, he’s the one that’s going to be taking the lead because it’s Barcelona versus Real Betis. Barcelona minus 200. Things that don’t complicate type price for a parlay. Real Betis at plus 525, the draw plus 380, the goal line is set at three, under and over at minus 125 and over one and a half for the under three goals. I’m liking this Roman, because Barcelona is starting to be a little bit more conservative, not gun hoe, but picking up points.

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, Barcelona still are finding their form in terms of the football they’re playing. They weren’t great as I said against Villarreal. But despite that, they got the win, which is important for a big team like Barcelona. To despite not having a good match, get the three points. Keep adding up. Keep getting that confidence Xavi is bringing to the players. And a game at home against Betis I think is a good opportunity to keep on with that momentum.

Roman:

And as a matter of fact, in the last 31 games in Laliga between Barca and Betis, Barcelona have always scored goals. So I mean, it’s a game that usually you see very high scoring results. We’ve seen like sort of four threes, four twos, five something. And that’s why I think it’s the game where we should see goals because Barca defense aren’t great. Despite everything, they’re going to concede very likely with a Betis side that are powerful offensively and they’ve shown this, not just in Laliga but in other competition, such as the Europa league. And I think the goals are the way to go. And this one, honestly, I can’t guarantee Barca are going to win, even though I think they are favorites playing at home. But as I said, goals are my way for this one.

Robert:

Okay. Pavlos, Roman is saying goals all the way. And he’s hoping that Barcelona score more than the visitors. Are your XG and IG and all the other GS, are they telling us that Barcelona are going to win?

Pavlos:

Possibly. But the thing with Barcelona, yes, they did start the season with some really bad numbers, especially on the road. But right now-

Robert:

Pavlos, what do you do about them numbers? When a team like starts off sort of really bad, but then they find form and they start winning, but we are still obviously calculating the numbers in. So do we have to interpret a little bit?

Pavlos:

Yes. Yes. There are certain situations where, for example, Rayo Vallecano they were very good at the start of the season. I think in the first six or seven match days they had the best or the second best, maybe third best XG, but we’ve seen those numbers being regulated as the season progresses. They play more matches, they just can’t keep up that pace. And yeah, sometimes managerial changes or players returning from injuries also tend to affect the XG numbers. XGA numbers, all kinds of numbers. So we have to make deep… To take deeper looks into these XG numbers. But as far as this match goes, Barcelona’s numbers have been improving lately, even though they didn’t get all the results they want, but they’re still on a good run since Xavi to over. They now have the third best XG, the fifth best offense, third best XG at home with 1.9, two per game, second best home offense with 16 goals.

Pavlos:

But Betis having also very impressive. They have the second best XG in the league with 1.84 per game. Third best offense with 25 goals. Second best XG on the road with 1.58 per game, fourth, best away offense with 10 goals. We’re talking about two very good offensive lines. The defenses are not that bad. I mean, Barcelona, they’re now up to fourth best XGA. They are allowing 1.14 per game. Fourth, best difference with 16 conceded, but it’s fourth best defense because other teams have done poorly. I mean, conceding 16 goals in 14 matches is nothing to be proud about for a Barcelona side.

Pavlos:

They still have the second best XGA at home. We’re allowing just 0.93 and the seventh best home defense with eight conceded. But what worries me is the fact that Barcelona, they have a crucial Champions League match coming up in a few days. They’re playing at Munich against the Bayern side that has already qualified. Barcelona are sitting at the second spot of that group with seven points. Benfica have five and they’re hosting Dynamo Kyiv. So long story short, Barcelona need a win because Benfica will probably beat Dynamo Kyiv. So if Barcelona want to continue to the knockout phase, they have to beat Bayern Munich in Munich. While Real Betis they also have a midweek match coming up in the Europa league. But their situation is much different. They’re sitting second in their group and no matter happens in their match or in the other match, they will finish second. They have already qualified as second. So there’s some burden of their backs and I think they will try to punish Barcelona here.

Pavlos:

They’ll try to get some points. Betis have been historically very competitive in this venue. I’m just going to throw some numbers because I think it’s very interesting. The matter between the two sides. Betis have scored two plus goals in four of the last five trips in this venue. All four of those matches had both teams to score and over five and a half goals. A couple of five two wins for Barcelona. A four three win for Betis and a six two win for Barcelona. I mean, these are insane numbers. And I check the numbers all the way back to 1991. 26 matches in this venue between the two sides 22 of those 26 matches had over two and a half goals. 17 of those matches had over three and a half goals. 13 matches had over four and a half goals and nine matches had over five-

Robert:

So we’re looking at goals then basically,

Pavlos:

Yes, we’re looking at a lot of goals. I personally take the both teams score. And over two and a half goals. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Betis scored twice against this Barcelona defense. I think the price is over plus 200, but yeah, both teams score and over two and a half goals.

Robert:

Okay. Can we have a little look at the official prices please? Because I know that both teams to score and over is around the plus 100. Ali, can I not have the stream view back so that I can see what the prices are, please? Both teams to score also with Barcelona and here we go. No, I want the official picks please. It’s the official picks. Sorry, there I just a little technical glitch that I lost. Everything. Both teams to score is at minus 150. Thank you for that. Ali, both teams score over two and a half. Is that minus 110. Did I say that it was minus 110 earlier? Or did I say, yeah, minus 110. So that seems like the way to go, try not to go with a money line money lines at minus 200. You’re not going to get rich on that.

Robert:

Now my favorite game in Laliga this weekend is this next one, because it’s an absolute cracker. It is the Real Sociedad versus Real Madrid. Real Madrid, one of the top three or four sides in the whole of European football at the moment for me scoring goals and looking majestic against the Real Sociedad side who on their day are a match for anyone. But you’re getting plus 235 for the home side, plus 120 for away side, which definitely looks like a trap or a gift. And it’s plus 255 on the draw. Romans, I see goals here. I cannot believe for the life of me. Over two and a half goals is minus 115. In fact, you talk about the game because I am adding that. Why you talk.

Roman:

Well, I mean, it could be a way to go. Although to be fair, Real Sociedad have been a side that haven’t really been conceding. One of their main pillars, this season has been their defense. Usually they’ve been winning games by maybe one nil, two Nil, two one. That kind of thing where they’ve really focused on strengthening the back, but it is true that their two center backs have been great Elustondo and Le Normand.

Roman:

But Elustondo possibly the best one out of the two, is suspended for this game. So, that means that somebody else is going to come in his place to start possibly Zubeldia. We’ll see who is chosen In the end. And that’s definitely something that I think Real Madrid can exploit. Real Madrid are coming with barely any injuries. They’ve practically got their whole team available. The only setback maybe is that they did play against Athletic club yesterday… On Wednesday, and Ancelotti basically went for a top quality lineup.

Roman:

He played basically his best 11 players or almost. So, I mean, most of them will be maybe slightly worn off for this game, but I still think that Real Madrid, they’re in really good form. As you said, they’re scoring goals, they’re getting positive results at the moment. They’re opening up that gap at the top of the standings in Laliga. And that’s why I honestly think that they should be capable of winning this game. Real Sociedad are definitely a tough side. Have managed a few good results against Real Madrid in the last few seasons, but this time I just don’t see it happening again. It’s going to be tough for Real Sociedad to actually defeat this confident Madrid side with Benzema and Vinícius. Both of them on fire. They’re scoring goals. If one doesn’t score, the other one is scoring. If one doesn’t assist, the other one is assisting. They’re really at a top level at the moment. And I just don’t see Real Madrid leaving San Sebastián without the three points.

Robert:

Yeah, I don’t mind Real Madrid winning. Offensive it’s three two, real Madrid. Maybe even a three three game. So I’m going over me two and half at minus 15. I’m definitely adding that Pavlos, but the big one highlight when we go back to the numbers is Sociedad to score twice at plus 175. I looked at this game before I see Sociedad causing Real Madrid real problems because they’re not scared of them. They’re at home. You’re going into their backyard and they’re going to have a go. And the pace that Sociedad break and the attack against Real Madrid’s back. Well, basically their central defenders. I give the edge to Sociedad over one and hour for me at plus 175 big price.

Pavlos:

Yeah, that makes total sense. But there is something weird about Sociedad numbers and that is the fact that they have the ninth best XG with 1.35 per game, seventh best offense with 19 goals. All good so far. At home, they’ve been doing pretty poor job offensively and poor in the sense that they have the seventh worst XG at home with 1.26 per game. The worst home offense in the entire league with five goals.

Pavlos:

But they also have the best home defense with just one conceded goal. The best defense overall with 11 conceded. Third best XGA with 1.09 per game, third best XJ year at home with 0.95 per game. So that goes to show that they play mad defense at home. Of course, they haven’t played some of the tough teams so far, maybe it’s Sevilla and Bilbao, but all the other matches were against Valencia, Levante, Vallecano. Teams that are generally not very good-

Robert:

Some of the teams have took points of bigger sides.

Pavlos:

Yeah, yeah. But the thing is that they have very low tempo in all their matches. I think all seven of their home matches in the Laliga ended as under two and a half goals, including two Europa League matches. With an average of 0.9 goals per game. So there’s very few goals in their home matches, but again, they haven’t played against Real Madrid against Barcelona. And maybe that will change here. Especially with Real Madrid firing and all cylinders. They have the best XG with 2.16 per game. By far the best offense with 35 goals. They have the best away offense with 19 goals. Their defense is struggling just a little bit on the road especially. But even though they have the third best defense overall. Real Madrid have the third best defense with 15 conceded, but still that’s about one conceded goal per match.

Pavlos:

And that’s just not very good for our Real Madrid side, but still six of their seven away matches finished with over two and a half goals and a mad average of 3.6 goals per match. Last season, the two teams played for a couple of draws. Both draws were under two and a half goals, but that was just probably an anomaly because eight of the previous nine matches they had over two and a half goals. So what also worries me is the fact that Real Sociedad that they have a crucial Europa League match coming up on Thursday where they are hosting actually Eindhoven and they need a win in order to continue in the Europa League. So all thing considered, I’m kind of scared to bet on this match, but I definitely see your point here. I, I do see goals.

Robert:

Yeah. Goals. Don’t worry about it. And obviously now we’re talking to Roman, who’s took the plus 120. Which, when do you ever see Madrid at plus 120? You could have Madrid against a top European side in the champions league and they wouldn’t be at plus 120. So that’s plus 120 for a reason. Beware. Let’s have a little look at the official pits. Boom. There you go. I’ve gone that team total over 1.5 at plus 175. Doesn’t mean, I think they’re going to win. I just mean, I think they’re going to twice. And I’ve also gone with both…

Robert:

Yeah, just over two and a half goals as well at minus 115. Real Madrid money line plus 120. When do you ever see that? Roman has definitely snapped up what he thinks is the value. We are moving on now to a team that’s been one of our favorites since the 11th minute of the opening day against Sevilla. It’s Rayo Vallecano versus Espanyol two sides that entertain you. Got Vallecano at plus 115, Espanyol plus 260, draw at plus 240, under over two and a half goals. Roman. We’ve got to be seeing goals because Espanyol are in good form. Vallecano score one, two Home or away, doesn’t matter. They create. They’re on the front foot. I see both teams scoring. And over here.

Roman:

I’m going to go a bit against you in this one, because honestly it’s true that Rayo Vallecano at home tend to score lots of goals. They’re a team that we all know that are fantastic. They’re one of the best sides in Laliga at home.

Roman:

But for some reason I have kind of a hunch that is going to be a tough type one for Rayo Vallecano this time again, Espanyol because Espanyol, to be honest, aren’t a good team away from home. It has to be said they haven’t won a single game at the moment. Only few sides with Villarreal I think it is. And Levante who simply haven’t won a game, but they do get quite a lot of draws and they don’t tend to concede too many goals taken into account. They’re not as they somehow still sort of defend and lose by a small margin. And I think they’re going to finally get a good result away. And Rayo Vallecano are finally going to maybe drop a few points. And that’s why I’m not really convinced.

Roman:

Also, what worries me a bit is that midfield four Rayo Vallecano because Santi Comesaña has been fantastic this season for them, he is suspended. And also the other guy usually replaces him which is Pathé Ciss he’s injured. So I mean, those two center midfielders, we could say with a more defensive approach, aren’t going to be available. And that’s definitely going to allow Espanyol to have more freedom going forward. If the main guys… Sorry, the subs aren’t at a good level. And also-

Robert:

Will Espanyol try and frustrate Roman?

Roman:

I kind of think so. I don’t think they’re going to go all out to try and win it. But I think they’re going to be very careful. They played against them twice last season because both teams came up from Segunda Division league. Both managers are the same, so they really know what they can expect from each other. That’s why I think it’s going to be a cautious game.

Roman:

And as we speak, Rayo Vallecano are playing the Copa del Rey on penalties at the moment against a third division side. And of course, given the result, they had to bring in some important players to try and catch up. And in the end they have a magical see if they finally go through or become the first division side to be eliminated from the Copa del Rey, but I don’t know. I just have a sort of hunch that it won’t be as easy for Rayo Vallecano although I can understand why you or anyone would back them up, because the numbers do say that Rayo Vallecano are fantastic at home and that this Espanyol are poor away. So, I mean, if you go with that, I can’t say anything. You have all my respect.

Robert:

Yeah. Please forgive me, but from looking away. Because what I’m trying to do is I’m trying to give you some numbers that are not actually on there. I’ve gone for the first half numbers at Bet.us.com have a little look at your top. You’ve got all sorts of alternates. Two alternate lines. First half draw no bet, and the draw at half time in this game is plus 100. Pavlos If Espanyol are to frustrate, surely they could last 45 minutes. So we could be looking at nil nil first half.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Espanyol have some pretty weird numbers. Pretty contradicting but very interesting. So here they are. Especially on the road, but I’m going to say just every metric because you need to have a clear picture. [crosstalk 00:33:42]

Robert:

Yeah. And we’ve all got homes to go to as well. So don’t begin.

Pavlos:

Okay. They have the ninth best XG on the road with 1.26 per game. But they have the third worst away offense with just five goals. So they do create chances, but they don’t score a lot. They don’t convert them to goals. They have the fifth worst XGA on the road with 1.68 per game. But they have the fifth best away defense with 10 conceded. They’re really…

Pavlos:

I mean, they haven’t won yet, but they don’t always lose that easily. They have the second fewest points on the road with just three points. Zero wins four loss and three draws while Rayo Vallecano have six wins and just one draw at home. They’ve been great. But I think this will all come down to whether Falcao will play. If Falcao is in, I’m taking Rayo Vallecano team total over one and a half in total. I do see Rayo Vallecano winning. But if Falcao doesn’t play, a lot of things change here. I mean, Espanyol could upset him here. So this are much where I personally would like to stay away, but keep in mind that Vallecano have the second best home offense with 16 goals, the second best home defense with three conceded and the best home goal difference with plus 13, better than any other side.

Robert:

Wow. Okay. That’s have a little look at the official picks. Roman thinks it’s going to be a tight one. That tight that he’s gone for the draw at plus 240. Remember the draw at half time is plus 100 as well. So maybe just a 45 minute involvement myself and Pavlos have left it, which is strange for me leaving Vallecano because there was just something telling me not to do. I normally don’t go for goals in this Vallecano versus Espanyol game. Now our final game is Celta Vigo versus Valencia. Celta Vigo plus 110, Valencia plus 270, to draw plus 245 under or over two and a half. When I first looked at this Pavlos, I just fall under two and a half goals, minus 125, jog on.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Well, the way I look at this is just a bit different but kind of the same, because I’m taking both teams to score. Which is a one one draw with confirming the both teams to score and the under two and a half goals. And the reason is this, because Celta have the third worst home offense with seven goals, the fifth worst defense with 19 conceded. The second worst home defense with 12 conceded goals. They are in a four match unbeaten streak with three draws and a win but they have just one win, five losses and two draws at home. Four of Celtas eight home matches had both teams to score, but they fail to score against Real Sociedad, Sevilla and Bilbao which are three of the best defenses in the league.

Pavlos:

And looking at Valencia, they have the six best offenses with 22 goals. The fourth worst defense with 21 conceded, third best XGA on the road, but fifth worst away defense with 12 conceded. Valencia are also on a four match unbeaten streak with three draws and a win. Kind of terrible on the road with one win, three losses and three draws. Five of seven away matches had both them to score and they even scored against Barcelona and Sevilla who are again, at home they’re very strong. So eight of the last nine matches between the two sides in Vigo had both teams to score. So I really love both teams to score here with a hint of a draw at plus 240.

Robert:

Yeah. The one one draw. I mean, all the numbers are telling you that they expect both sides to score at least once. I think the under are in play, but again, I’m not putting my money down. So I’m just talking hot air. Whereas, you are actually going with both teams to score. Roman. You see this being a one one draw and Valencia they’re not the same side on the road.

Roman:

I was very tempted honestly, for something like that for both teams to score. But at the same time, I remember that these two sides have made me lose quite a lot of money this season because they can be very unpredictable. And like I said, wait a second, don’t go for Celta. Don’t go for Valencia. Two of the sides that just don’t know what they’re going to do. You know, suddenly great game. Only a poor game. We’ve been talking about this. We say this, I think every week.

Roman:

Every week these two sides are just so tricky. So I’m just not sure. I mean, I do expect both teams score at first, but then you think about them and it’s like, anything could happen. And in terms of squad, I mean Celta Vigo have most of their players available. Thiago Galhardo, the striker who’d been coming on lately and doing quite well, he’s injured. But apart from that, the main man Santi Mina and Aspas are going to be there. So that’s definitely positive for Celta Vigo. And on the other hand, Valencia do have a few injuries in the back, but they have good players to compensate. So I don’t think that will be too troublesome. And they are poor away as you said, but they could come up with the draw, a win or who knows what. So that’s why in my case, I decided to stay away in the end.

Robert:

Okay. Let’s start it all up at the official picks of our last game. It is both teams to score minus 115 at Pavlos, myself and Roman have both just give it a swerve. Just said no wheelchair on Pavlos. No problem at all. Now, as you ask your questions in the chat, one of them came out. Danny Lopez just wants us to have a quick word about Atletico versus Mallorca. Atletico at minus 310, Mallorca plus 1000 and a draw around plus 430. But the numbers are under over two and a half Roman really quickly. Why did we not go maybe back to our old ways of Atletico to win and under three and a half,

Roman:

I was really tempted because I do think Atletico are going to win, but I just couldn’t find the value. And I just don’t know if they’re going to score under 3.5. We saw the other day, they scored four. You know they’re very unexpected this season. You think they’re not going to score too many goals than they do. You think they could score a lot of goals and they don’t. So that’s why they don’t have this classic tendency they had last season of winning one mill or something like that. So I just couldn’t find the value and decided not to risk it.

Robert:

Pavlos. Can you give me a final score on what you think it’ll be for Danny?

Pavlos:

3-1.

Robert:

3-1. That’s why we didn’t go for under three and a half. So maybe you for Atletico go minus one and a half. Maybe get you close to around. I don’t know, minus 125 or something like that. Now I’ll take you back to the start of the show. When I said we are America’s favorite sports book and we are becoming even more popular. We’re closing in on 3000 subscribers for the BetUS soccer channel. So please subscribe and put your thumbs up and show a bit of appreciation and also ring the bell and ring the bell means we’ll notify you. You’ll never miss any content.

Robert:

Again massive bonus because that means the Bundesliga. You will not miss that tomorrow. On Monday you’ll not miss the champions league. And in the week after we’ve got more midweek action from Bundesliga and the premier league. So from Pavlos, from Roman, from myself and everyone at Bet US sportsbook may all your bets be winners. We really appreciate your support. Make sure you do not miss any of our content. You can read that. Nothing’s been added. There you go. No bankers. They’re our official picks. The one I like most Real Sociedad team total over 1.4 at plus 175. And when I said nothing’s been added, I added over two. And minus 115 on Real Sociedad, Real Madrid. I don’t like making mistakes. Check out La Liga TV show. Ciao.

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