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The Soccer Betting Show La Liga

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This week in La Liga, Real Madrid is a force to be reckoned with. They extended their advantage at the top to eight points after defeating Real Sociedad two and 0. The same score with which they had defeated into Milan in the champions league midweek. Even if Karim Benzema is a doubt for the match versus Atletico Madrid, the Whites still have the best odds.

Barcelona is coming off losses to Real Betis and Bayern Munich. Plus, Sevilla and Real Betis will face Athletic Club and Real Sociedad. Sevilla being the club with the fewest goals against, while Betis has scored the third highest number of goals. I’d like to read your picks on this one in the comments below, but let’s get to what we’re here for, Flash, Roman and Pavlos are ready to share their favorite La Liga odds and soccer predictions for the weekend.

Flash:

Welcome to BetUS. I am Flash and America’s favorite sportsbook is bringing you La Liga match day 17, and what a weekend it’s going to be because we have the Madrid Darby. They don’t get any bigger than that when it comes to La Liga, especially with the likes of Sevilla, Villarreal and Barcelona all faltering. Now, first thing I’d like to say is thank you to everyone who has subscribed to BetUS soccer channel because we have gone over 3000.

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Flash:

So let’s kick straight on because from Greece, I have Pavlos who’s in charge of stats, value and winners. And on the other side, mourning Barcelona crashing out of the champions league is La Liga Lowdown’s finest in Roman. Roman, I’ll come to you first. I know you was hoping, but was you a believer that they would go through?

Roman De Arquer:

No, I was definitely not a believer, I have to be honest with you guys and everyone watching and actually had my hopes in Dynamo Kiev might pull out a win or something unexpected because in the end, they did get a good result in the first leg against Benfica. But in the end, none of those two options were possible and we all knew that Bayern were likely going to beat us. Although Barca did start pretty well in the game, they looked quite decent. We had maybe a couple of chances but as the game went on, Bayern just dominated more and generated the chances and they’re definitely a superior side. So now the Europa League is what we’re going to play in.

Flash:

Yeah, I’m not so sure though, Pavlos, that Barcelona really need the Europa league because not many teams go on and do well in their domestic league when they play Thursday-Sunday, Thursday-Sunday.

Pavlos Laguretos:

Yeah. Maybe they’ll try to give some European experience to some of their youngsters and they do have a lot of youngsters in that squad. So I believe this is going to be a learning experience for this Barcelona side. Maybe if they do well in the first couple of rounds, maybe they’ll go for it. But yeah, I think their main target right now is to climb the La Liga standings and get up to the best possible finish in this La Liga season.

Flash:

Okay. Well, I can’t see the chat because it’s my third location of the day because of technical difficulties around where I live. I changed for Serie A and now I’ve changed to come into the studio. I’m making my debut as it goes, so I’m a little bit nervous on the turf I’m not actually used to. but we have six games starting on Friday night.

But before that, we’re going to have a little look at the records because we’ve been doing okay recently, we’re just treading water. Flash, minus 1.85. You know that will go in a flash. Pavlos off a winning week, starting to eat into that deficit at seven. La Liga Lowdown, well that’s mostly all the profit’s just Roman’s. The parlay is still sitting at 1.63. Maybe we’ll find another parlay very soon, but the total is minus 4.78. So let’s erase that, let’s get ourselves back into positive territory very, very soon.

Flash:

Okay, the first game up is your Friday night game. It is Mallorca versus Celta Vigo. Mallorca are at plus 165, Celta Vigo at plus 205. The draw at 200. Well if you go with everything I say about the draw being anywhere near 200, just go for the draw. Then you don’t even need to listen to us. The under and over is a miserly two. Pavlos, are we looking at an under or over two? And by the way, what about the draw being at just plus 200?

Pavlos Laguretos:

I wouldn’t go in the totals in this match because there is a very big difference when Iago Aspas is playing and in this match, he’s both suspended and injured. Something that was quite exciting to see, quite interesting, actually to see in that Celta match where he scored, he was injured while celebrating and then he took his shirt off. Anyway, he’s not going to play in this match and Celta are most likely dead in the water without Iago Aspas. He’s been leading the team with seven goals. He’s by far the most influential player. He has the most XG with 6.84, the most expected assists with 2.46. This is a true blow for Celta. I don’t think they’ll be able to recover offensively without him.

Pavlos Laguretos:

And I think this is a match where Mallorca should be able to get at least one point. They have been excellent at home. Two wins, just one loss and five draws. Celta, they haven’t been bad on the road. They have three wins, two losses and two draws, but without their best and talismanic player sidelined for this match, I think this is going to be a tough one to win.

Flash:

Roman. We always say that if Mallorca are going hold onto their La Liga status, then they’ve got to win their home games. Coming up against a Celta Vigo side who are basically only a second half side, they don’t start games really, really well. And at plus 165, this is an opportunity for people to get good value on the home side.

Roman De Arquer:

Yeah, definitely. As Pavlos pointed out, Mallorca are better at home. They have pretty good results. They have a good record also against Celta Vigo who haven’t won there who haven’t won there in I think it’s over 20 years or something like that. Of course, in that period of time, they’ve only played four games, that’s not much, but still, it proves that Real Mallorca are a strong team at home and it’s where they usually get most of their points whenever they’re playing in the first division in La Liga. And as Pavlos also pointed out, Iago Aspas not being there is definitely a big, big, big blow for Celta Vigo because if you look back the last three seasons, without Iago Aspas on the field, Celta have only managed nine points out of 51. So that proves how important this guy is for this team.

Roman De Arquer:

And of course, it’s true that the Iago Aspas isn’t at the level he’s been in previous seasons, but he’s still crucial for this team and without him, it makes it even harder to trust Celta De Vigo and we’ve been saying this, they’re a very unexpected team. You’re not really sure which way they’re going to come and without Iago Aspas, I don’t really have any doubt and I’m just not going to go for them. I’m going to stay away from Celta Vigo. They could win it, but I see Mallorca as favorites.

Roman De Arquer:

And also, they have that momentum, Mallorca, after beating Atletico Madrid with that 90th minute goal by Take Kubo who also came back from an injury. He’s also a really important player for Mallorca and it’s going to be very interesting to see Kubo with Kangin Lee, both Asian players. They’re going to finally coincide possibly in a starting 11 for Mallorca and there are a lot of hopes placed in these two guys because they have a lot of individual talent and they can provide a lot to this Mallorca side. And playing at home as we said, is definitely a positive. So if I had to pick a team, I definitely go for Mallorca but I’ll just stay away just in case.

Flash:

Yeah, there’s a lot of omens. There’s also the confidence factor. The home side on a Friday night game, you’d always want to be with them. And so we got home side on a Friday, confidence on the back of an unbelievable win that nobody would’ve envisaged and also, they’re playing up against a Celta side without their talisman and main goal threat.

Then basically, you’re looking at the home side or maybe a shot to nothing with maybe draw no bet. Well, let’s have a little look where our money is going on this Friday night game that kicks off La Liga match day 17. It’s Mallorca. Yeah, draw no bet at minus 130. I just think that under two goals as well, or basically under three goals, because you get a push at two at plus 115. I can see this being maybe one-nil, two-nil to the home side and if you can get the away side under half a goal, then that may be an avenue as well.

Flash:

Let’s go on to game two of our six and I like this game because it’s Espanyol versus Levante. Espanyol plus 100, don’t complicate it. Levante, plus 305. With the way Levante have been playing this year, that could be plus 605. The draw at plus 235. Under and over is set at two and a half with the over being the biggest value at plus 105. Team total, Levante not to score at plus 115. Roman, what are we expecting here because Espanyol have been far better than Levante.

Roman De Arquer:

Yeah. Espanyol have been… Well, any team has been better than Levante this season, to be honest.

Flash:

Well this is what I’m saying.

Roman De Arquer:

They haven’t won a single game at the moment in La Liga and they’re on a 24 streak game without actually winning, which goes on from last season and they matched the worst result achieved by Sporting Gijon, which is also 24 games in a row without winning. And if they again, don’t win this game, they’ll be the team with the biggest streak without winning, which is something they’re going to definitely want to avoid. So I guess that could serve as some sort of motivation for them.

And also the fact that they have a new manager on board, third one this season, Lisci. He already played or managed them we could say last weekend against Osasuna in that nil-nil draw.

Roman De Arquer:

And the good positive for Levante is that they’re finally going to have every single player available for this team, which is something they haven’t really been having through the rest of the season. They’ve always had problems and injuries, but now there’s no excuse with the whole team there. It’s their moment to finally get a decent result.

But I just don’t see them winning honestly at the Espanyol stadium where Espanyol have been fantastic. I think most of their points have been achieved there, if I’m not mistaken. I think it’s 17 out of their 20 points have been at RCDE stadium and that comes to prove that, that’s where teams come and struggle and often lose or drop points and I just don’t see Levante winning.

Roman De Arquer:

But I’m going to stay away in that sense because I still want to see what effect this manager has on the team, what effect all the players being available has also on the team with Campana finally there, Melero being available, Roger, et cetera, et cetera, Morales. So I want to wait and see a bit and see how it goes. But if I had to go for one side, definitely Espanyol would be the team to bet on.

Flash:

Yeah, Pavlos. Maybe both teams to score no as well, because if you get a new manager that comes in, he’s going to be looking to make sure that they don’t concede. The thing is with Espanyol is they’re patient and they normally score. Levante at plus 155 not to score. I cannot believe that the plus 100 is available. Is that a trap?

Pavlos Laguretos:

I’m not sure because when you look at Espanyol’s numbers, especially the XGs and the XGAs at home, they look terrible, but we have to take these numbers with a grain of salt because Espanyol, they have played eight home matches so far in the season. They’ve only lost to Atletico Madrid. They had a drug against Villarreal, a draw against Bilbao, they beat Real Sociedad, they beat Real Madrid. They’re really, really good with five wins, one loss and two draws.

Pavlos Laguretos:

They might have the second worst XGA in the entire league with 1.67 per game and the second worst XGA at home with 1.7 per game, but they have the second best goal difference with just four conceded goals and the third best defense overall in the La Liga with just 15 conceded goals. So they’re doing a really good job. Just don’t take their XG numbers very seriously because they played against some very tough opposition and they have done a great job while Levante, they are on the opposite side of things.

They have the second XG, third worst XG on the road, third worst offense, fifth worst away offense. Second worst defense, worst away defense, worst away record. There’s a lot of bad numbers for Levante, but again, take these numbers with a grain of salt because they just changed their manager he showed in the match against Osasuna, that he’s willing to shape up the defense.

Pavlos Laguretos:

So if you asked me if this match was played a week ago, I’d go with Espanyol and quite possibility the over. But as far as this match goes, I’ll take the Espanyol money line and I’m very, very happy with it at this price.

Flash:

Yeah, I am too. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. I think there’s a gulf between these two and I think it would take Levante probably the best part four or five weeks to get the balance of defending the attacking. Remember this Levante side was a side that used to draw nearly every single week last year, but they scored nearly every single week.

Now you just don’t know what you’re getting apart from no free points. Espanyol money line for myself and for Pavlos, Roman’s still saving up but you can understand why you want to get involved in this game because whenever there’s a new manager, something strange happens, players start playing to a different intensity and at a different level. But we’re going to go Espanyol at plus 100. Best not complicate it, let’s go with the home side to win and Levante to set a new record of being three years without any type of win.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s move on to game three because this is a very, very tight game. It’s Athletic Club versus Sevilla. Athletic plus 160, Sevilla at plus 205 which is absolutely gigantic. So then you look at draw no bet for the visitors at plus 110. Sevilla very, very average midweek in Champions League. Went down to I think it was nine men in the end. The draw is at plus 210, the under and over is at two. I think that’s more, Roman, because of the home side not scoring goals.

Roman De Arquer:

Yeah, probably because Athletic Club as we know, haven’t been very good going forward. Their main man, Inaki Williams hasn’t really been doing very well with his aim towards goal and he’s lacking those goals the team needs basically. But on the other hand, they are great defensively and they’re one of the best sides together with Sevilla defensively.

Both have only conceded 11 goals, the fewest in La Liga. So that shows you that it’s likely going to be a low scoring game. We’re going to maybe see a nil-nil, one-nil, two-one, something like that. Not too many goals because as we said, both teams are strong defensively and they’re going to protect themselves at the back. So it’s going to depend on what the teams are capable of doing in attack and to be fair, Sevilla numbers at the San Mames are actually terrible because in the last 11 games, they’ve lost 10 at San Mames, which comes to prove that it’s a very, very tough stadium for them.

Roman De Arquer:

But the positive for Sevilla is that the only win out of those 11 games was with Lopetegui last season. So of course the manager knows how to break down this Athletic Club side. And I think that overall, Sevilla are going to try and come back and bounce back from that poor result in the Champions League. They were in a relatively easy group for them, they were definitely one of the favorites to go through and unfortunately, they didn’t make the most of that. And now they have to keep fighting in La Liga because they’re the side which is closest to Real Madrid.

They definitely don’t want to lose them and let Real Madrid get too far off in the standings. So that’s why I think they really, really need this win and I think the draw no bet you mentioned is really tasty because I think they could pull a one-nil or something like that at the Athletic Club stadium, even though we said that the numbers aren’t great there.

Flash:

Pavlos, I only see the away side getting something out this game. So when you have a look at the bottom left hand corner, it’s Sevilla draw no bet at plus 110. I must tell you that was minus 110 less than two days ago. So there was money come on Athletic Club at home but for me, it’s Sevilla draw no bet at plus 110.

Pavlos Laguretos:

Well, I initially thought this much was solid under two goals. There is no way given by the numbers that we see, best defenses as Roman said. Bilbao have the fifth best home defense and Sevilla have the second best away defense. These are very two compact defenses that don’t usually allow neither goals or expected goals. So very, very solid defensively. What worries me and then I scrap this match because I can’t pick anything. I like Bilbao to win actually, but I’m not going to play it because there is something wrong with Bilbao lately and I think there is a point where this bad streak is going to stop.

Pavlos Laguretos:

Their XG numbers have been improving lately and they actually now have the fourth best XG in the league with 1.6 per game and the fourth best XG at home with 1.82. So the chances are there. It’s not like they can’t create chances. The problem is the finishing and I expect that to change at some point, maybe it won’t change against the best defense in the league, but I do expect that to change. And given the recent history where Bilbao, they have won 10 of the last 11 here. Maybe this could be the match to fire them up.

And when these two sides meet, usually there’s a lot of both teams to score there, some overs. So I don’t like the under, maybe this is an over, I wouldn’t be surprised. I just don’t know what to pick here. This is a very, very tough match. I’d rather watch it. My heart wants Bilbao to win, but this is a big, fat pass from me.

Flash:

Yeah. I thought there was a possibility of a nil-nil, to be honest. And you can get plus 175 and plus 185 for the away side and the home side in that order to not score. So if there is a winner and it’s one-nil, you’re still going to pick up a minimum of 0.75 of a unit. But official picks, I think I’m on my own in this. Oh no, Sevilla draw no bet plus 110 for me and for Roman which obviously gives me a lot of confidence because Roman, he doesn’t splash that cash around willy nilly. He normally picks up. So we’re happy to go with Sevilla draw no bet at plus 110. Remember, it’s plus 175 for Sevilla not to score and plus 185 for the home side not to score. Yeah, interesting game. Come on Sevilla, one-nil would be absolutely lovely.

Flash:

Let’s move on to game four because there’s a massive gulf here. It’s Villarreal versus Rayo Vallecano. Villarreal if you listen to me every single week, I have something to do with them and every single week, they let me down. But in midweek against Atalanta, they came through by scoring three goals. I’m hoping that’s a sign of things to come because it’s minus 135 on the money line, plus 375 for the visitors, plus 295 on the draw. Then it’s under or over two and a half. Pavlos, Villarreal for me, it says half there at minus 135. I can tell you on the handicap that Villarreal minus one is around plus 120.

Pavlos Laguretos:

Well, I don’t know. I’m tired of talking about Villarreal each week with the same glimmer of hope in my eyes, but-

Flash:

Moreno is back to finish up all the good work.

Pavlos Laguretos:

Yeah, he is. But in the match against Sevilla last week, he missed a shot where he was alone in front of goal and he shot it upwards. So that really hurt me and my bet. But yeah, that, we can’t take this single event. He has proven time and time again that he’s a very, very quality player. He also gave out an assist today against Atalanta. So I expect the Moreno effect to kick in sooner rather than later. And now playing against the Rayo Vallecano side who are not very good on the road while Villarreal, they’re quite solid at home. They have the third best XGA at home. They’re kind of solid defensively whenever they don’t fall apart. It’s either very good defense or very bad defense with those, there’s no middle ground.

Pavlos Laguretos:

So Rayo, they’re excellent at home, but on the road, they don’t have very, very good numbers. They have the fifth worst away offense with just seven goals, the 11th best XG on the road with just 1.25. The 10 worst XGA on the road with 1.48. So I think this Villarreal offense is already starting to click and I think that they’re going to give this Vallecano defense a really hard time. But this is a much where I wouldn’t personally get involved simply because I’m just biased against Villarreal at this point.

Flash:

Yeah, that’s fair enough because obviously drew the first six games, but Roman, we’re looking at a gulf here. We’re talking about Villarreal on their day being one of the top six, top seven sides in European football. And they’ve got Moreno to finish off the good work. And then you throw into the mix the way that Vallecano want to play which is all front foot, eventually they get picked off and you know that I’m a Vallecano fan.

Roman De Arquer:

Yeah. If we were talking about this game maybe a couple of seasons ago, we’d clearly be betting on Villarreal but this season, it’s different in the sense that Rayo Vallecano are doing fantastically well and Villarreal despite having to do well, they’re not. But now they seem to having a reaction. I think they’ve had some decent few games of late despite results. The Barcelona game, as I mentioned, was very good from Villarreal. They deserved to win, clearly.

Flash:

And they were better against Sevilla, weren’t they?

Roman De Arquer:

Yeah. Against Sevilla-

Flash:

If they finished their chances, they could’ve come away with that.

Roman De Arquer:

Yeah, they were controlling the game, they were looking really good. But then unfortunately at the back, they disconnected. They were lacking the solidness they used to have maybe in other seasons and unfortunately for them in the end, they were just weren’t capable of climbing back and recovering. And against Atalanta again, they were dominating the game, winning three-nil. At the end, they had this fright because of course as we mentioned, their defense is maybe their setback and that’s why I think it’s a game where we could actually see goals because Rayo Vallecano despite not getting good results away, they do score a few goals and they do concede a lot and Villarreal at home also score goals. So that’s why I’m looking there towards some sort of over because I do think that we should see quite a few goals from both sides, actually.

Flash:

Yeah, I’m happy to go over two and a half because I’ve actually thought the score would be three one to Villarreal. And if you have a look at the official picks here, I just cannot believe the value is plus 140, Villarreal minus one. I see Villarreal winning the game and if they win the game and they only win it by one, it was just a free hit. Over two and a half at minus one 10, I’ve got this as Villarreal team total over one and a half as well. So for me, it’s all about the home side and the away side, they are just going to contribute to the way that the home side, Villarreal, win. So let’s move on because we’re getting closer and closer to the main dish. But before that, we’re going to have Real Betis versus Real Sociedad. Sociedad, limp, damp squid last week. Didn’t even put up any type of fight. It’s Betis at plus 135, Sociedad at plus 215. I don’t know what’s happened to the visitors. Draw at plus 235. The under over is a generous two and a half with over being at plus 105, Roman.

Roman De Arquer:

Yeah. It’s a game where you’d expect an entertaining match with goals, but I’m not sure which version of Real Sociedad we’re going to get, because on the one hand, they’ve been quite poor of late in La Liga. Haven’t really gotten good results they were managing previously. But on the other hand, they just got a really stunning win against PSV by three-nil in the Europa League. They qualified in a very important game and that’s why I think it’s one of the reasons why they might be a bit more fatigued for this one, because the manager went all out with the squad. He put his best 11 players because they needed that win no matter what at home against PSV, they got it.

Roman De Arquer:

And I do think that some of those players might be a bit extra tired, whereas Betis on the other hand, they have also a Europa league game, but they’ve already qualified. They don’t really need to put their heart and soul into that match, they just need to play it and, and think about that game against Real Sociedad. And as a matter of fact, Real Sociedad have a really, really poor start at Benito Villamarín where they’ve only won 13 out of the 57 games they’ve played historically although it has to be said that quite a few of those ones would have come in the past decade. So Real Sociedad have tried to catch up and they’re much better than they used to be in the past. But despite that, Betis are still a good side.

Roman De Arquer:

They look good, they beat Barcelona recently. They’re in good form, they’re getting good results, Fekir is going to be back from his suspension. He’s going to have all of his available players and it’s going to be interesting to see Willian Jose and Juanmi who used to play together for Real Sociedad. This time, they’re going to play for Betis against them and they’re both in form. Juanmi is scoring a ton of goals lately and I think Betis, they’re doing really well and I think they could actually manage a win in this game because Real Sociedad as I said, are going to be a bit more tired. I think they’re going to make some rotations because they probably need to and I think the home team can take advantage of this.

Flash:

Yeah. I’ve gone full circle here, Pavlos, because last week I had Sociedad thinking, okay, the big guns are coming to town. I fancy Sociedad, threw caution to the wind and they score a couple of goals. Now, all of a sudden, I want nothing to do with Sociedad, to be honest. Betis to score twice is plus 125. Team total for Sociedad to score twice is plus 175. They were plus 175 last week at home and just come up with a duck egg.

Pavlos Laguretos:

Well, I was just looking at the lineups as you guys were discussing the match and I saw that Real Sociedad, they did use all their starters while Betis, I think this is a B squad that they used or most of their B squad. So it’s interesting to see that the Betis players will be more fresh than the Sociedad players in this match and I don’t have an official pick in this but I might decide to put one there. Betis [crosstalk 00:26:33]-

Flash:

Where would you go? With the home side?

Pavlos Laguretos:

Yeah, home side. Home side draw no bet or maybe team total over one and a half. Something like that but the thing that worries me is the fact that Real Sociedad, maybe they’ll be tired offensively, maybe they’ll not be able to create so much. Betis, they don’t have a very good defense, they have the 10th worst XGA and the 10th worst XGA at home, 7th worst defense. So maybe Real Sociedad will get their chances but defensively, they’ve been great. They have the second best defense, I’m talking about Sociedad and the fifth best away defense. So maybe I think Betis would be more than okay with a one-nil here. So yeah, I think I’d like to add Betis draw no bet on my official picks. I like the numbers.

Flash:

What price was that?

Pavlos Laguretos:

Minus 135, I think. Let me see here.

Flash:

One second. Yeah, Pavlos, let’s have a look. Pavlos, draw no bet. I’ll write this down, minus 135. Okay, I’ll make sure that we put that in because that’s Betis. Okay. Well, let’s have a little look at the official picks in this game because I want to get to the Madrid Derby and it is Betis team total over 1.5 at plus 125 and Pavlos has gone for Betis draw no bet at minus 135. So we see the home side scoring twice. If you see the away side scoring, then you go over and I think the over two and half was at plus 105. So we’re seeing goals. Don’t go with both teams to score, no, because Sociedad, they can definitely find the back of the net on a going day.

Flash:

Here we go, one of the biggest games in La liga all season, and especially with the other teams form. It’s Real Madrid versus Atletico Madrid. It is the Madrid Derby. Real Madrid up plus 110. Wow, what a price that is. Atletico at 260 fresh off of scoring three goals against Porto. The total is two and a half, and over two and a half at plus 100. Draw, plus 250. Roman, before I go to the numbers with Pavlos, every single thing that I’ve said, whether it be money line for the hosts, money line for the visitors, the draw all over or under two and a half. It’s all possible.

Roman De Arquer:

Yeah. It’s going to be a game where anything can happen. Although to be honest, seeing how Madrid have been doing of late, I don’t want to change anything. I want to stick to them because they’ve been pulling out the results, they’ve been playing really good football. They’ve been winning. We saw it against Inter de Milan even without Benzema available, they managed a comfortable win playing better. We saw it against Real Sociedad, also comfortably winning. So why not stick to them? Taking into account that Atletico Madrid are having a very tough season. It’s true that they can do better in these important games. They got a very good win against Porto, which allowed them to qualify through to-

Flash:

Do you think Suarez coming off helped them?

Roman De Arquer:

But yeah, there’s one of the questions. Is Suarez going to be available? I don’t know, I don’t know if they’re going to risk him. I see it a bit unlikely, to be honest because it’s true that it’s not a very, very bad injury, but we’ll have to wait and see till the very last minute. And to be fair, Cunha has been doing quite decently, Griezmann has been scoring important goals of late. So it’s likely that if he plays, it’ll be coming on from the bench, I think. And also to add to that, Atletico Madrid has other problems in terms of injuries with Savic also being injured, Gimenez looks unlikely to be there. So more problems in defense for Atletico Madrid and we all know Trippier has been out for a while. So defensively, there is some struggles, although it also has to be seen whether Benzema is going to come and play in this match because he has been training on his own and they’re going to wait also and see till the last minute. So the two key strikers for both sides are going to have to wait till the very end.

Roman De Arquer:

But on the other hand, Real Madrid does have an extra key striker, which is Vinicius, a guy who’s also in great form. And I just think that the quality in Madrid’s midfield and with Vinicius and if Benzema is even available, it gives me more of a reason to believe in them. Also, I think they have the better defense this season because Atletico Madrid look nowhere near the quality or good defense they to have in past seasons. So at this stage, I think a draw is likely, but I’m not going to change my bets and I’m going to stick for Real Madrid and if there’s plus money for Real Madrid at the moment, I think you have to take it because it’s something you don’t see or you rarely see. So at the moment, I think that’s the safer option for me.

Flash:

Yeah, listen, I totally agree. I just look at this game and think that Real Madrid are one of the top four sides in European football at the moment on current form. You’re getting them at plus 110. There’s two other angles I like. I think this will be a feisty game. So Pavlos, I think we see cards. And also, I wouldn’t mind saying Real Madrid minus 1.5 corners because I see Atletico sitting back and trying to hit on the break and I see Real Madrid doing all the pressing.

Pavlos Laguretos:

Yeah. And they’re going to press a lot for sure. And Atletico Madrid as Roman said, they’re going to have a massive defense like they did against Porto. It did work out against Porto, but it might not work so well against Real Madrid, because they didn’t have any center backs. They used Vrsaljko who is a right back and Kondogbia who is a holding midfielder as center backs. They did a good job, but again, especially if Benzema plays, they’re going to have a tough time containing the best offense in the league. Real Madrid do have the best offense in the league, the best XG, second best XG at home, third best home offense with 16 goals.

Pavlos Laguretos:

Their numbers defensively are not very good for a Real Madrid side, when you compare it to other sides in the La Liga this season, they have the eighth best XGA which is not that great with 1.32 per game, but they have the third best defense 15 conceded goals and the third best home defense with five conceded goals. And their defense has looked pretty good lately. They have four clean sheets in the last five matches. They only conceded against Sevilla. They played against Inter, Real Sociedad, Bilbao. They’re pretty solid-

Flash:

You know why though Pavlos? You know why? Because they’re defending on the edge of their own box, knowing the pace they’ve got and the energy. So they just basically defend deep, don’t allow teams to get in behind. They don’t get caught on the counter themselves and they spring and two or three seconds after they’ve cleared the ball, they’re sticking it in the back of the opposition’s net.

Pavlos Laguretos:

Yeah. Using Alaba as a center back, it’s just amazing to me. I was amazed when Bayern did it and I’m still amazed. The guy is a winger. At most, he’s a left back, but they’re using him as a center back because he’s just so good in what he does and he’s such a good overall player. So yeah, but as far as this match goes, Atletico Madrid, they have the best defense… The fourth best defense, I’m sorry, with 16 conceded goals. They have the best XGA, the best XGA on the road although on the road, they haven’t been all that good. They had to score twice against Getafe, against Espanyol in order to win, against AC Milan. They haven’t kept a single clean seat on the road this season and they have played against Cadiz, Levante, Alaves, Getafe. What happens when Real Madrid are clashing against them? So I expect Real Madrid to score at least one goal here.

Pavlos Laguretos:

I’m not so sure on the over, because judging by what we’ve seen so far, the over could make sense but matches between the two sides, especially at the Bernabeu Stadium, don’t usually have a lot of goals. So there might be value in backing the under. But yeah, if I had to pick anything here, I’d pick Real Madrid money line.

Flash:

Yeah listen, at plus 110, no one’s going to blame you at all. I’ve actually if you want to flick up the official picks, I’ve actually just gone for the over two and a half because I could see this being three-one, two-one, three-nil. Maybe even a two-two but I’m not going to be saying the two-two out loud because as you can see, Roman’s gone with Real Madrid money line at plus 110.

There are our six games, obviously culminating in the Madrid Derby. I’ll take you back to the moment we stick up the official picks. And while we’re doing that, I’ll remind everyone to please subscribe and get closer to the 4,000. We’ve just hit 3000. We thank you all, everyone from BetUS thanks you and appreciates all the efforts. But the bigger one for us at the moment is for you to ring the bell. Ring the bell means that we will notify you and you’ll never miss any content, which is going to be so important going through the festive period.

Flash:

There’s a big yellow one there, Villarreal banker minus one at plus 140. And the reason I made it at banker was because one, it was plus 140 and secondly, I know Rayo Vallecano and I know Villarreal and Villarreal will win the game. So it’s a banker and it’s a free hit. Pavlos, have a great weekend. Let’s hope that all three of yours and I know you’ve added Betis on there. Draw no bet at minus 135. Roman, I think you’re right with the Real Madrid plus 110. Why wouldn’t you be? Because they are one of the best sides in Europe at the moment with or without Benzema. So from everyone at BetUS, from Roman, from Pavlos, you take care.

Roman De Arquer:

Bye.

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