X
Skip to content

La Liga Soccer Predictions

Speaker 1:

COVID-19 is still taking a toll across the board. Luka Modrić and Marcelo of Real Madrid both tested positive on Wednesday after not playing since the last Sunday’s 2-0 win against Atlético Madrid. The majority of the team returned to practice. Sevilla and Atlético Madrid are by five points when they meet on Saturday, December 18th. Flash is ready with our soccer experts, Roman and Pavlos, to talk about the newest La Liga odds, free tips, and top soccer bets.

Flash:

Welcome to BetUS. I’m Flash, and America’s favorite sportsbook would like to invite you to settle down and enjoy La Liga match day 18. We had an unbelievable week last week, and if this week we can just half emulate it, we are going to be very, very happy. +8.05 units from myself, Roman, and Pavlos.

Flash:

Now, we’d like you to subscribe. We’re going to try and get closer to 4,000 before the end of the year, so we’re going to need you to subscribe, but more importantly at the moment is to ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you’ll never miss any content again. With all this COVID news and the pandemic spreading and hitting the sporting programs, we’re going to need to be light on our feet and make sure we still bring you the right information, but maybe at a different time, so make sure you ring that bell.

Flash:

Well, my expert panel is Pavlos, from Greece, who brings you numbers, stats, and value. His wingman knows everything about La Liga Lowdown, sorry, everything about La Liga, he’s Roman, he’s from the La Liga Lowdown, and he is actually on the ground. Roman, I’ll come to you first, because the English Premier League has been decimated with pandemic and the spreading and trying to keep everyone safe up over this Christmas period. Are we expecting any sort or cancellations, postponements of La Liga games? And if not, what will take to cancel?

Roman:

Well, at the moment, there isn’t. I mean, all games should be played. The only one that’s slightly in doubt would be that Real Madrid-Cádiz, because at the moment, Real Madrid have up to six players with COVID-19, plus one of the assistant coaches. We’re talking about important players here, like Modrić, like Asensio, and not-so-important ones we could say, as Bale and Rodrygo and Marcelo, and the goalkeeper, Lunin, who’s the second one behind Courtois.

Roman:

In this case, according La Liga’s rules, the game has to be played if Madrid have at least 14 players available, and if at least one of their goalkeepers, the two main goalkeepers, is also available. It’s unlikely at the moment that it’s postponed, unless they do further tests and this outbreak goes further and there’s more players which are with this virus. At the moment, as things stand here, the games should go on, but we’ll have to wait and see, I guess, till the next few days and see how everything evolves. It’s a game you should be careful with if you want to place any bets beforehand. Maybe you should wait until it’s played or during play, if it actually takes place.

Flash:

Yeah. Well, we don’t want to be getting involved in that game anyway, not now, because there’s too much uncertainty, Pavlos, off a winning week. There seems to be plenty of good value this week, as well, and we’re starting to see the turning of certain teams in La Liga that have been average, below average, can’t trust, but in the last couple of weeks, and this is why we do our job, we’re starting to see green shoots of recovery, and the books have not caught up yet.

Pavlos:

Yeah, that’s true, and we also see sort of the opposite thing, where there were some mediocre teams where they were doing a great job in the past weeks, but they’re now sort of deflating like Alavés, for example. But yeah, there’s a lot of value to be had in these La Liga matches, and we are here to talk about it.

Flash:

Okay. Well, let’s kick straight off with this first game. Remember, we’ve got five games. Get yourselves in the chat. Any questions, then don’t be shy. There’ll be a Q&A at the end because we’re only covering the five games. The first one is Rayo Vallecano versus Alavés. Rayo Vallecano, -130. No one would’ve thought about that preseason, but here they are, very strong at home against an Alavés side where we can just hear the gas coming out of the balloon. It’s like that. They’re +410. The draw is at +260. The total is under-over 2 1/2. If you rely on the away side, then… Pavlos, I left this game alone. I love Rayo Vallecano, but for some reason, over the last couple of weeks at home, Vallecano have let me down. Away from home, they’ve done me proud because they’ve not turned up.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Well, Vallecano, they had some insane numbers at the start of the season, but as we said in the previous show, these numbers are starting to regulate slowly but steadily, but still, they have some pretty solid numbers, and when you compare that to the numbers that are thrown out by Alavés, I just have to pick the home side here. I mean, Alavés, they’ve had their run. I think it was five matches unbeaten, then now, they’ve won just one on their last five. Of course, that includes, too, a couple of cup matches. They also lost in the cup yesterday, I believe, or the day before.

Pavlos:

They are not very good on the road. Alavés especially, they have the fourth-worst xG on the road, with just 0.96 per game. Fourth-worst away offense, with just six goals. Their defensive numbers are also bad. Eighth-worst xG on the road, with 1.6 per game, and fifth-best away defense, with just five conceded goals. I’m sorry, that’s incorrect. They have conceded 10 goals. But the thing is that they have grabbed the second-fewest away points so far in the league, just five points, one win, four losses and two draws, and a -4 goal differential.

Pavlos:

But Vallecano, they are on the opposite side of things. They have the best home record in the league, with seven wins and a draw. They have scored 17 goals. They have conceded just three, which is the best defense. They have the best goal differential in the entire league at home. I believe even without Falcao, I think Falcao is out in this match with a muscle injury again, but even so, I think Vallecano, they will continue to do a very good job at home, where they have the third-best home offense with 17 goals.

Pavlos:

They have the best home defense, with three goals. I mean, these numbers are just not going down all that much. Their xG number’s kind of regulated, but again, I believe that they are a very strong side, especially at home, and Alavés on the road, they haven’t been all that great. A couple of wins, a couple of draws, not very good overall. As I said before, they look like they are deflating at this point in the season. Yeah, I really love Vallecano money line on this one.

Flash:

Roman, I just felt that this game was very, very tricky. I’m looking at numbers. First of all, as you know, I’ve been a Vallecano fan all season long. -130 for them at home. I mean, are Alavés really that bad to be +410? And even the double chance at +110, I can see this being a draw, but now, I have to be cheering on Pavlos. Do I need to be cheering you on, as well?

Roman:

I mean, I think so, because it’s true that maybe Alavés’ price tag is a bit confusing, but I think it has to do with Rayo Vallecano being so fantastic at home. I was looking at numbers, and I saw that there is only one team in the five top leagues with more victories at home than Rayo Vallecano, and that’s PSG, with eight. I mean, this comes to prove how good they are at home.

Roman:

It’s such a strong side. 80% of their points or so they’ve obtained at home, and as long as they keep getting these results, their stadium, I think, it makes sense to go for them if they have decent prices. In this case, they do, so I think it’s worth going for Rayo Vallecano. They play much better football. They generate occasions. Even in that game where they lost against Villarreal 2-0 last weekend, they had… I think it was 19 shots. They had plenty of chances to score goals against some stronger defense, we could say, which is Villarreal.

Roman:

Also, Alavés, on the other hand, they don’t have one of their main center-backs, Lejeune, who’s suspended. Only its Laguardia, their main man, with Tachi possibly joining him in that two position, to the center-back, so that’s always, obviously, another weakening factor for Alavés. They could get a goal. They could maybe put Rayo under a little bit of pressure, but overall, I think Vallecano are a very reliable side at the moment at home, and if you think they’re going to win or that you can find value, I think you should go for it.

Flash:

What about Rayo Vallecano to score twice, Pavlos, at -110 instead of taking the -140? We’re not seeing Alavés score twice or even three, so if we think Rayo Vallecano can score over 1 1/2 goals at -110, you would lean that way, rather than taking the minus -130.

Pavlos:

Yeah. But I mean, the price is great, but I’m kind of worried that maybe they’ll score the first and then maybe sit back on the result. After all, 1-0 is still a win. I saw that price on the over 1 1/2, but the price on the simple money line was just pretty similar, and I just don’t see Alavés cutting any points from Rayo here, and I don’t see them scoring twice. I mean, they did score twice against Sevilla earlier in the season and twice against Cádiz, but they’ve overall been very, very bad on the road, while Vallecano have been pretty solid, both defensively and offensively at home. Yeah. This could be like a 2-1 win for Vallecano, but yeah, I’ll stick to my money line.

Flash:

Okay. You stick to your money line. Let’s have a look at the official picks. I’d be interested in maybe Alavés not scoring, but there again, Rayo money line at -130. Rayo, an under 4 1/2 at -110, and obviously, Vallecano to score twice in the game is at -110 again. That’s the home side sorted out. Let’s go to the second game, because I’m looking forward to the home side here.

Flash:

Now, Real Sociedad versus Villarreal. They’ve got this all wrong, for me. Sociedad at -120, Villarreal at +260. That is not a misprint. Double chance for the visitors at -140. One of the best sides in European football on their day, and they are showing more than green shoots of coming back to their best. Roman, the draw is at +225. No, thank you. Total under-over at 2 1/2, with the under being juiced at -135. Let’s start off with Sociedad not being worthy, +120, and Villarreal being totally disrespected at +260.

Roman:

Well, I mean, if you look at current form, definitely, you would want to go for Villarreal at the moment, because they’re finally getting good results, playing good football. They were playing good football, I’d say, but finally, that good football is turning into goals, turning into good results, into points, into qualifying to the Champions League knockout stages. I mean, now, Villarreal seem to be much more comfortable, and Emery’s football is finally properly being implemented by the players.

Roman:

On the other hand, it’s a Real Sociedad who are a bit slumpy lately. They’re not doing too well, but at the same time, they’re playing at a home. If you look at the whole season, they had a great start. If they could kind of come back to that form, I mean, then they would definitely be dangerous. What slightly worries me in this case is that two of their main players in the midfield, which are Mikel Merino and David Silva, they’re crucial for this team, and they’ve been away for a while, and they’re going to be back, most likely, for this match.

Roman:

If the coach can actually count on them, their defensive line is all available. In attack, Oyarzabal is not injured anymore. Isak is there. They look more dangerous than they maybe would have looked the match day ago, two match days ago. That’s why in my case, I’m a bit cautious in this sense, but if I have to go for somebody, I do think Villarreal at the moment have the form. They have the players. Gerard Moreno is back.

Roman:

The only thing that worries me here a bit is that Danjuma has a knock. We don’t know if he’s going to be available, and he is really, really important for that team, playing in that left wing and going forward, because he also scores goals. If they have him in the squad, I think Villarreal have great chances. Also, if you look back at the numbers between both sides, it’s true that Villarreal have usually done really well against Real Sociedad away. They maybe have been slightly disrespected, as you said, by that money line value, but in my case, I’m going to skip, because it’s a game which I’m not really sure what’s going to happen in the end.

Flash:

Pavlos, you know where I’m going. I’m going all out with the away side, because I see them as being a better side, and I see this being a very, very tight game where Villarreal score first, 1-0, that could be the end of it. That could be keep ball, get 10 men behind the ball, frustrate, and just keep it. I cannot have Sociedad at +120 against this Yellow Submarine.

Pavlos:

Yeah, me either, and I don’t see a lot of goals in this match either. I mean, all eight home matches for Real Sociedad had under 2 1/2 goals with average of exactly one goal per match. That’s extremely low. Villarreal on the road, they haven’t yet won. They have three losses and five draws. Six of those eight mats had under 2 1/2 goals, with an average of 1.5 goals per match. Also, the two teams, last season, they exchanged a couple of 1-1 draws, so this looks like a low-scoring match, for sure.

Pavlos:

Now, Real Sociedad, they have a weird, weird home record. They have four wins, one loss, and three draws. They have the fourth-best xGA, the fourth-best defense. At home, they have the third-best xGA with 1.05 per game, the best home defense, with just three conceded goals, but they also have the worst home offense, with just five goals. They scored five, they conceded three. In eight matches, that’s just extremely, extremely low.

Pavlos:

While Villarreal, the numbers have been improving both defensively and offensively, but they do have a trouble on the road. They have the second-worst away offense, with just four goals. Ninth-best xG on the road, though, with 1.3 per game. Their offense is kind of underperforming, but now, with Gerard Moreno back, we also discussed that in the previous show, that how [crosstalk 00:14:38].

Flash:

I mean, we’ve got to make sure that people are aware that Gerard Moreno is like Vlahović for Fiorentina, Džeko for Inter, Haaland for Dortmund.

Pavlos:

Haaland. Yep.

Flash:

He is their talisman. He is their goal scorer. He is the man that finishes off all of their good work, and all of them xGs was when he was out.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Exactly.

Flash:

And now, we’re looking at Sociedad, who don’t score goals and they’ve had a fit squad. Yeah, we’ve got a couple of ball players, but not real dangerous players coming back. I see Villarreal being the perfect… What about both teams to score? No.

Pavlos:

Yeah, that could happen. I mean, I don’t think there’s ever been a single match for Real Sociedad at home that both teams score. I think only one against Bilbao. All the other ones had both teams score. No. Yeah. I don’t expect a high-scoring match. That’s why I paired Villarreal or tie with under 4 1/2 goals, so for our little extra bigger odds, and that’s because Villarreal have been great, as Roman said earlier.

Pavlos:

They have been great in this venue since, I think, 1999, that we have the data. They have nine wins, four losses, and eight draws in this venue, so they’re pretty good, and they have lost just one league match in the last decade here. They have five wins, one loss, and three draws in league matches. Their recent form compared with Gerard Moreno’s return and the good history in this matchup, I think that Villarreal have a great, great chance to escape with some points here.

Flash:

Yeah. I nearly went really greedy here. I want the official picks to come up, because I nearly made it my banker on Villarreal at +260, but what I did do was I went with double chance, as well, at -140 to almost give me a free hit on the away win. You’ve gone with Villarreal double chance and under 4 1/2 at -120. Yeah, you’ve nicked an extra 20 cents there, so we like that, but we are all over the away side not getting beat.

Flash:

Okay. Move on to our next game, because this is a home side where I’m happy to think that I’ve just a little bit overpriced. Granada, if I ever had a little bit of amnesia, but Granada have to win home games, and they haven’t been doing it, and they’re +150 now. They were at +160, then it dropped to +155. The money keeps pouring in at +150. Is that because the visitors, Mallorca, do not win off of the island? It’s +210, draw at +215. Again, I’m going against what I always say. Like we said last week, don’t listen to us. If it’s near 200, just go with a draw. We said it last week. What happened? Yep, it was a draw. Under or over to Roman, I’ve gone with the home side, and I want to be with the home side at +150.

Roman:

Well, to be honest, this season, I can’t really trust Granada yet. I haven’t seen any consistency in their game, in their results in general. Since they changed coach, they’ve been a completely different side, and I honestly haven’t been capable of detecting what they’re capable of, because one game, they might score four goals, they might have a fantastic match, and the next one, they might be really disappointing. In that sense, I’ve stayed away from them.

Roman:

Similarly to Mallorca, who had a great start, then a ton of draws, and now, they’re still struggling to get back into that winning streak. Also quite unreliable. Even at home last week at against Celta, where they should have maybe got something more, they weren’t capable, although to be fair, that day, it was extremely, extremely windy. I was watching the game and it was barely possible to make a long pass or shoot properly because the wind was completely changing everything, and that’s why it was a very boring game, to be honest, because the players were incapable of playing their football, although Mallorca still had the quality to at least get a better result.

Roman:

Taking into account that Kubo is back from his injury, he’s now playing. He’s an important player for Mallorca. At least, he was at the beginning. In that sense, I can’t really say which team could win and which team could lose. Both sides have quite a few injuries or doubtful players which we don’t know if they will be available.

Roman:

What is good for Mallorca is that Baba is going to be back, and when he’s on the field, Mallorca have way more chances of winning, because his defensive work is incredible, and also, going forward, he can provide for them. It is a matter of seeing which team is more accurate, I guess, towards goal in this game, although to be fair, Granada, at home, do have to get wins at some point. I think maybe relying on them is a bit safer than going for Mallorca, but in my case, I’d stay away.

Flash:

Yeah. I have to give you a little inkling into my notes. I went with home side’s desperation. When is the penny going to drop? If they are going to stay in La Liga, Pavlos, they have got to start winning their home games. So I looked and thought, “Do I want draw no better, -135, or do I have the faith that Granada, who are very, very good at home on a normal La Liga season, that they’re going to playing like that again, and we’re going to get +150?”

Pavlos:

Yeah, that’s a sound logic. I mean, Granada, slowly, they have been improving lately. I mean, they are on a four-match unbeaten streak. They have lost just two of last 10 in all competitions. They have four wins, two losses, and four draws. A couple of nice results in there. They also won their previous match against Alavés, and Mallorca are a similar side, in terms of overall team strength. Granada’s numbers are not good. I just have to admit it. I mean, these are facts. They have the third-worst xG. Fifth-worst offense, with 17 goals. Second-worst xG at home. Fifth-worst home offense, with nine goals. Worst xGA, with 1.82 per game. Third-worst defense with 24 conceded goals. Worst-

Flash:

Oh, I just said, “Do you want to keep going or what?” Jesus.

Pavlos:

No, no, no.

Flash:

Is that why I’m getting my +150 for a home side that normally when their home games?

Pavlos:

Yeah. That’s probably why you get that +150, because the numbers are terrible, but Granada, I don’t think they’re so bad. I mean, they’ve scored in all their home matches this season. They scored against the Real Madrid, against Sevilla, against Real Sociedad. These are all pretty solid defenses. Mallorca, I think they’ve kept just one clean sheet on the road, in the first away match against Alavés. They concede goals left and right.

Pavlos:

I think this Granada offense is not that bad. It’s adequate. It’s just a mediocre defense and offense, and they can do pretty sure job against this Mallorca defense that is just very good. Not very good. They have the third-worst away defense, with 16 conceded goals. Third-worst xGA on the road. I mean, Granada will get their fair share of chances here, and if they can just be-

Flash:

That’s it.

Pavlos:

… just careful at the back, I think they can get three points here. I mean, they do need-

Flash:

Yeah. I’m glad you said that. I’m glad you said that, because that’s exactly where I was going here. I was going with Granada need to get a result. I’m almost fading Mallorca defense and Mallorca’s inability to score more than one on the road. I think that this is a minimum 2-1, 3-1 home side, and you’re getting +150, don’t complicate it.

Flash:

For me… Listen, Granada will go on the naughty step, but I’ve got a little slogan that I wrote ahead of all of these for the last couple of weeks for La Liga, and it is, be ahead of the trend. We all watch these games. We all watch these teams, so we see that when a team starts playing a little bit better, creating a little bit more, it’s only time before they go in. Official picks. You know I’m on my own here. You heard what the boys said. They want nothing to do with Granada. It was +160, then +155, the money keeps coming in, and it’s +150. All my family and friends are on Granada, +150.

Flash:

Let’s move on to game four, and it is Getafe versus Osasuna. I’m going to look straight down. Draw, +200, Getafe at +145, Osasuna, +230, pick’em at +125 for the visitors. Under or over two, but over two is +125. Roman, is this 0-0?

Roman:

This could be very likely a 0-0. Of it’s not a 0-0, it’ll probably be a 1-1 or a low-scoring game overall. There’s where we want to look towards this game. Historically, there’s many, many draws between these two sides. Maybe Getafe have the slightly better results overall against Osasuna, but it tends to be a draw, so I think there’s maybe value to be found there.

Roman:

Also, it’s true that both teams, for Osasuna especially, they have a big setback in defense, which is David García, who’s been their main man this season, probably their best player overall, and he’s suspended. He’s not going to be there, so that definitely weakens a bit that Osasuna defense. But despite that, I don’t think Getafe’s defense is great either, and attacking options that Osasuna have are quite decent, with Chimy Ávila, with Kike García, with Budimir, et cetera.

Roman:

I mean, despite that, I don’t think it’s going to be a goal fest. Getafe have improved recently, to be fair. They don’t look as bad as they did at the beginning of the season. With their new manager, they got this little boost. They’re getting some more decent results and fighting to survive. Against Alavés, for example, last weekend, they were really, really close to getting the win, and right at the end, it got snatched away from them by Joselu, but I don’t think, as I said, we’re going to see too many goals here. I think it’s going to be a very tight one.

Roman:

Osasuna are going to try and defend and maybe find something in the counter-attack. People might think that after that really good result against Barça, they’re going to be great, but to be fair, Osasuna, I think are the team that of grow against big sides. We saw it against Real Madrid. We saw it against Barça. When they play these sides, they usually get decent results because they fight and give 100%, but against sides, against Getafe, that changes a bit. As I said, looking back into the record between these two sides, draws are very, very common. Low-scoring results are very, very common. If you want to find value, I think you should be looking around there.

Flash:

Yeah. I’m fancying that draw half-time is going to be odds-on. I’m thinking it’s got to be -110, maybe -105 for draw half-time. If you want to just go that way, I think that you can go to betus.com and have look at the 75-minute mark so you don’t get done with a rogue VAR decision or goal in the last 20 minutes. But Pavlos, surely your numbers are telling us the draw at +200, the unders and the both teams to score, no.

Pavlos:

Yep. Yeah, exactly. I’m just going to start off by saying historically, that eight of the last nine matches between the two sides, and each of the last four matches within the last two seasons, had under 2 1/2 goals, so there’s that. Now, let’s talk about Getafe. There are on a five-match unbeaten streak. They only lost to Villarreal in their last eight matches. They have three wins, five draws. At home, they haven’t been all that bad. They have two wins, four losses, and two draws, but they’re unbeaten in their last three.

Pavlos:

Osasuna, we talked about this, also, in past shows, that they started the season… I think they had the second-best away record for a really long time. They had three wins and… It was four wins and a draw at the start of the season, but now, they have fallen off a little bit, and winless in their last four away league matches. They weren’t the easiest of matches, of course. They had Real Madrid, Sevilla, Atlético, Levante.

Pavlos:

But anyway, we are talking about two very bad offensive lines. Getafe have the worst offense, with 11 goals. Osasuna have the fifth-worst offense, with 17 goals. Defense is not looking really good. Yeah, I believe that maybe these two sides will cancel each other out, and the draw is quite a possible result. I mean, Osasuna would be more than okay with a draw here. Getafe are going to look for the win in order to maybe escape the relegation zone. But yeah, there is a lot of draws individually with these sides, and even more so when they play against each other. Yeah. A draw, especially at half-time, is surely, surely something to consider here.

Flash:

Yeah. I’m just having a quick look to see if I can put a little bit more meat on the bone. I’m just looking here, and it’s Getafe versus Osasuna. The reason I’m saying this is because I wanted just to see what the half-time one was, because it looks like it could be nowed on. All right. Getafe, create the score, 0-0. In fact, what about the 0-0? Because although we’ve got the draw at +200, 0-0 is only +450. Draw is at +274, so we’re trying to give you everything, and the draw… This is probably the best one. The draw after 75 minutes is the same as the draw after 95, which is +200.

Roman:

That’s great.

Flash:

Again, let’s have a little look at the official picks here, because what have we got? Oh, it’s draw. Draw at +200 for Getafe and Osasuna. Good luck, Roman. But if anyone finds the value, you are that soldier. Let’s move on to this last game, because I think we may buck the trend here. It’s Levante versus Valencia. Levante, a massive +165. Valencia, very, very assured at the back on their day, though, at +170. The draw at 235, and the total is under or over 2 1/2, with the under being favorite at -125. Roman, I think this goes over, because I think Levante have gone back to their old ways of throwing caution to the wind. Their old play and style was not working, so now they’ve got a find something new.

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, I think this game is all about the goals, as you said. I mean, the over 2.5 is tempting. The Levante over 1.5 team total is tempting. Both teams to score is tempting, because it’s one of those results, as we were saying before, the Getafe-Osasuna, there’s lots of draws here. There’s usually lots of goals. Also, if you take into account the squads available for this game, if you look at Valencia, they have their two main center-backs, Paulista and Alderete, injured, so they’re not going to be playing. Their best striker, Maxi Gómez, is possibly suspended, but they still have Guedes out there. They still have André. I mean, they have quality. They can still score. They’ve proved it without them.

Roman:

On the other hand, you look at Levante, they have a pretty decent squad, but they’re missing Malsa in that midfield, suspended. Son, one of their main fullbacks, is also suspended. I mean, the defenses seem like they’re pretty much open to allow strikers to have opportunities, and we saw it the other day against Espanyol, that Levante-Espanyol game, 4-3 at the end, thrilling, goals up and down. Levante proved to be very bad defending, but they proved that they can also score goals.

Roman:

With Morales, Roger, and these guys up front, they have a lot of firepower. Against Valencia, it’s a derby. It’s a local derby, so the extra intensity they’re going to bring to the field, we’re going to see it 100%, and especially taking into account that Levante still hasn’t won this season. I mean, this would be the best way for them, I guess, to break that terrible streak against-

Flash:

25 games, Roman, and you did point out last week that they’re going to set a record.

Roman:

They set it already. That was the record. [crosstalk 00:29:31].

Flash:

I know, 25 games. I was absolutely over the moon, because we did fade Levante last week.

Roman:

Exactly. It went well for you guys, and I mean, Levante have been appalling, as you said. It looks like they’re doing slightly better with the new manager, although in the Copa del Rey, it didn’t go too well for them in the end, but of course, they are thinking about La Liga at the moment.

Flash:

Oh, yeah.

Roman:

They’re thinking about saving themselves from relegation, because they’re in very, very big trouble at the moment. As I said, this could be a great opportunity. Valencia have lots of injuries. I think all the ingredients are set up for a goal fest, I would even say, for goals from both sides. If you want to look for value, I think you have to go for that at the moment, because it’s going to be hard to predict whether it’s going to be Valencia winning, whether it’s going to be Levante, but goals, I think, we can mostly guarantee.

Flash:

Yeah. I agree. Please, Pavlos, tell me that your numbers are telling us exactly the same, because what I see with my naked eye is… I mean, Levante are +165 to score twice. Valencia are +165 to… Listen, you cannot split these. It’s +235. Who cares who wins when the over 2 1/2 is now at +105? Yesterday, when I wrote this up, over 2 1/2 was at +115. They’ve already moved the market by 10% in favor of goals.

Pavlos:

Yeah. First of all, I’m going to start off by saying about the history in this head-to-head. Seven of the last eight matches between the two sides had both teams score. Levante have scored in each of the last eight matches that’s hosted against Valencia. Both teams to score was in four of those eight matches, which goes to show that no matter the season, no matter how well they do, they are very, very competitive against Valencia. Valencia have won just one of their last eight matches in this venue. This is traditionally a tough trip for Valencia, but when you look at this number, the numbers this season, Valencia have been much, much better than Levante.

Pavlos:

Levante are one of those teams where they can score three goals and lose, like they did against Espanyol last week. They also scored three away goals against Sevilla and lost by 5-3. This is a team that they can blow up offensively at any given moment, but their defense is just terrible, even though they can score goals, but they do have the worst xG, with 0.87 per game, and the fifth-worst offense, with 16 goals. They also have the worst xG at home. The second-worst home offense, with just six goals. The worst defense, with 32 conceded goals. I mean their numbers are just terrible, but something different happens when they host Valencia.

Pavlos:

I think this is a match where it starts at 1-1. It starts at 1-1, and then it’s all upwards from that. I mean, logically, it’s going to be Valencia who score the second goal, but again, this Levante side has been really, really weird offensively lately. They can score goals against some of the toughest defenses in this league, and Valencia are not one of the toughest defenses. I think they have the fourth-worst defense, the seventh-worst xGA, the sixth-worst away defense, with 16 conceded goals. Yeah, Levante will have their chances to score here, and I believe they will. Yeah. It’s both teams to score. A simple both teams to score for me, because I don’t know, I just thought it’s a safer bet. It’s a safer bet.

Flash:

That’s safe. Exactly.

Pavlos:

It’s a safer bet.

Flash:

That’s the word. That’s the four-letter word. It is unbelievably safe. I would go as far as saying, if you are going to watch one La Liga game this weekend, this says to me that this is going to be, if you was putting a flyer out or an advert for this game, it’s goals, cards, excitement. Now, whether they take them chances, Roman, is another thing, but these two sides do not like each other. They both think that they can win the game, which then tells you there’s no one going to be sitting back. Everything tells you, and then, I mean, we also know that the money has moved for the over 2 1/2.

Roman:

Yeah. Unless your name is Paco Polit, you will like both, but in the other case-

Flash:

Who’s Paco Polit?

Roman:

Well, the guy-

Flash:

We’ve not seen him for so long. We forgot about him.

Roman:

A guy that we used to know.

Flash:

It’s like that. Do you remember the three little pigs, when one of them leaves to go and make up a new house and that? He’s like that. He left. He got too big for his boots, but I know he will be back very, very soon.

Pavlos:

[crosstalk 00:33:48].

Roman:

He’ll be back. He’ll be back, for sure. He’ll be back, and he’ll be very attentive to what happens in this game, of course, because it’s two sides he likes, of course, and Levante in a tight position at the moment. Yeah. I mean, overall, it’s a game where you’re going to see goals, I think, for sure, unless something really strange happens, because we just said it, they can score goals, but at the same time, defensively, both teams are poor. I think that’s the main factor here.

Roman:

Levante can’t defend. We’ve seen it all season. Valencia can defend sometimes, but I think less this time, because they are missing two of their best center-back, so in this sense, there’s going to be lots of opportunities, and the passion, we said before, in a derby between both sides usually increments the intensity, increments the wanting to win, the wanting to have those three points. That’s why I think that goals is the way to go.

Flash:

Okay, let’s put up the official picks. While I’m doing that, then I’m just going to remind you to help us get towards 4,000 subscribers. It’s both teams to score at -135 for Pavlos. Over 2 1/2 goals for me, at +105, it’s come down already 5%, and both teams to score and over at +140. We’re all on the same page. Let’s hope we don’t have egg on our face.

Roman:

Ah.

Flash:

That is the end of our La Liga clips, but now, if we put up all of our official picks, you’ll see a bit of color in there. When you see a bit of color, that means that there’s a banker involved. I’ve gone with Villarreal double chance, that -140. That will pay. That means two units going on. That means that’ll give 1.42 units of profit, so I invested one of them on Villarreal at +260, but Roman’s got +200. +140, Pavlos. He’s steadying the ship. He’s making sure that we go through to profitable waters.

Flash:

Profitable waters will be seen when we have a little look at the records. The records now have completely changed. We had a good week last week. I’m at two, and now, total is at 2.27. Parlay is still sitting there. We’re going to have to come up with another parlay. La Liga Lowdown, courtesy of Roman, now at four, and Pavlos had a week last week, as well. 8.05 units of profit last week.

Flash:

If we can stick up them official picks again, please, just so that I can then say to everyone to please subscribe and ring the bell. Ring the bell means that we’ll notify you, and you’ll never miss any content again. We’re starting with tomorrow. It’s the Bundesliga with Alex and Kevin Hatchard. Remember, Kevin is the voice of European soccer, and Alex is the type of person that you want on your side when you want a last minute goal. We may well want that last minute goal in Levante versus Valencia. From Pavlos, from Roman, we’re not going to see you now before Christmas, are we, gents?

Roman:

Yeah, I don’t think so.

Pavlos:

Ah, no.

Roman:

It’ll be a while.

Flash:

Okay.

Roman:

Happy New Year, Merry Christmas.

Flash:

Listen, do everything in moderation. Don’t go overboard. Pavlos, you look like the man that kicks the arse out of it, you know what I mean? So just relax and just do everything in moderation.

Roman:

Take it easy.

Flash:

Just do it for 24 hours a day, all right?

Pavlos:

Yeah.

Flash:

Roman, have a great first Christmas with the little one.

Roman:

Thank you.

Flash:

We hope that everything goes really well, and we look forward to seeing you all again soon. From everyone at BetUS, from La Liga, we’ll see you in the new year. Merry Christmas, and we look forward to seeing you soon. You take care.

Show More

Related Tags

HLTV BLAST.tv