Flash:
Welcome to BetUS. I’m Flash and it’s LaLiga, it’s match day 20. We are America’s favorite sportsbook. So we want you to subscribe, get us closer to 4,000. More importantly at the moment, as you can see, we need you to ring the bell. So that means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. Next week on Monday, first major of the season, if you’re a tennis fan, it’s down under, it’s the Australian Open and at the moment, no Novak Djokovic, so there’ll be a new champion down under for the first major tennis tournament of the year, which we all look forward to. So next Monday, 2:00 Eastern, I believe. And next Friday, 2:00 Eastern after the draw is made. So Monday will be the futures and on Friday, next week it’ll be after the draw. So we can then start telling you about the individual selections.
Flash:
Tomorrow we’ll have Serie A because Serie A is still going on today and Bundesliga at 10:00 Eastern. We thank you, obviously for all your support. Now you got to think outside the box a little bit when you come to LaLiga and that’s what we did the other day, and we did absolutely brilliantly. And when I say we, I mean, Pablo from Greece, from his numbers, from his stats, from his cards, from his corners, and then the man on the street who at the moment is worth his weighting gold. I just wish he was little bit heavier so that I could sell him. So Roman from LaLiga lowdown has been giving us all the details. And I tell you what, we all said, caveat this and caveat that, but I tell you what, we did great and we did really well. Roman give us the latest update. And then we expecting any games postponed and who has been hit the hardest?
Roman:
Things are improving. Most teams are recovering all their players, so there’s no risk of any postponement. And to be honest, I don’t think there are many teams really hit badly at this point. It’s mostly now a mix of COVID and injuries. Probably Barcelona, one of the worst cases because they have over 10 or so unavailable players, but many of them are injuries now, not so much COVID cases. And I think quite a few of them will be back for that Granada, which is a positive, but of course we won’t know until a very last minute. But in rest of the teams, I think there’s not too many cases in terms of COVID and things seem to be improving, although some are still popping up in certain teams, but nothing too bad. Like Granada, for example, has a couple now, a new ones, but not too important players. So I think things are starting to look up in that sense. And I don’t think COVID will be such an important issue in the next upcoming weeks.
Flash:
Roman, just give us a quick update on what’s going on with crowds and attendances, where are we at with that?
Roman:
Well, it’s the same as last week. I think it’s 75% of autonomous taken and that’s the amount of people that are allowed to go to the stadium and staying like this for now until they-
Flash:
Oh, they’ve not got a maximum because you have 75% of Barcelona. You’re talking 75,000. If you have 75% at Elche you’re talking about 461.
Roman:
Well, but the stadium is bigger, so it has more space to have all those people. So [crosstalk 00:03:04].
Flash:
Oh see, that’s sensible, but in Germany they’re not doing that. In Germany, they’re saying yeah, 50%, 75%, but only up to 15,000.
Roman:
Well, it depends because also one of the things people are worried about or the government is worried about is about people getting together before the games and maybe that’s why they’re a bit worried of having so many people limited depending on the stadiums. But I think here it’s just that way.
Flash:
Excellent. And Pablo, last week you came up with a nice strategy of plus money picks. Meaning if you get one up, then you’re going to still make money, but certainly not lose it. If you get both, you’re going to come up trumps.
Pablo:
Yeah. And it worked out of course, Betis somehow burned our bet. But it was expected because it’s just a weird timing right now with all the COVID cases, the injuries, people getting too fat over Christmas dinners or whatever. We also have the Africa Cup of Nations where there’s a lot of people from around the world that are competing in that tournament. And that’s also something to look at because there are players that are missing due to that. So you have to look at a lot of different ways that teams are just missing players. So I think we did a very nice homework. I saw your picks guys before the TV show. I really love most of them. So let’s talk about them.
Flash:
Yeah, let’s do that.
Pablo:
I’m super excited. Yeah.
Flash:
Let’s do that. Okay. Just a quick one on the African Nations, I’ve been doing it for years. Draw half time and under two and a half goals in the group games, regardless of who’s playing and you will come up Trump, I promise you. Okay. So it’s draw half time and it’s definitely under two and a half goals over the full time. So you’ve got two shows for the price of one. Let’s have a little look at the records because one of us is absolutely flying. Don’t like to talk about it, obviously closing in on the 10 units of profit, which means I’ve got very, very lucky. Obviously we must have had Paco coming in the middle of the night. Nicki and a couple of units. But listen, as a team +9.54, we’ll definitely start and settle for that $100 at the start of the season.
Flash:
Every single individual bet would be a $954 units of profit which is great. Okay. So that means you can maybe take Pablo out for a few beers with that $954. You won’t have a lot of change. Anyway, listen, let’s get, let’s crack right on here because we’ve got five games and five really good games as well, because we’ll start off with the first one. It’s Granada versus Barcelona. Granada great at home over the years. Now they’ve got to get back to it if they want to stay in LaLiga and it’s +375, which you would expect it to be higher. Barcelona struggling, remember at -1.35 might well be a trap that, might well be a trap. Draw is that +280, the under and over is at 2.5. I’ll come to you first Pablo because Barcelona fan Roman can wait, but Pablo, I’m looking at the over 2.5 goals here because neither of these sides keeps clean sheets.
Pablo:
Yeah. I love that. Even though Granada have some really bad numbers, especially in the XGA department. They have the worst XGA with 1.8 per game, they have the worst XGA at home with 1.73 per game. Even though their difference is bad, just straight up bad, there often has been quite surprising at home. They’ve scored in all matches so far. They’ve scored in all nine matches. They have four wins, three losses and two drawers at home. Pretty solid. If you ask me, both teams to score was eight and one at home. So I’m guessing that they’ll be able to score against this Barcelona. Defense hasn’t been very good. They’re also missing a lot of players and you have to take Granada results, they played against Atletico Madrid, they beat them by two, one.
Pablo:
They even scored against Real Madrid, of course, they lost four to one, but they did score. They beat Sevilla by one to nil. They scored twice against Real Sociedad and once against Betis, once against Valencia. So some of these teams, they have the best defenses in the league and yet somehow Granada have found ways to score against them. And Barcelona on the road haven’t been very impressive decision. Although we do have to say that their XG numbers and XGA numbers have been improving. They now have the second best XG with 1.86 per game. Fourth best [inaudible 00:07:33] with 30 goals. Third best XG on the road with 1.58 per game, six best away often with 11 goals. Second best XGA… Third best XGA on the road.
Pablo:
However, they just can’t stop conceding goals. They did keep a clean sheet against Mallorca, but that was just their second clean sheet in the season. The other one was against Cadiz. So I definitely see both teams to score here. I’m not so sure about the over, but I guess the way Granada have been playing, especially lately, they’ve been great lately. I think unbeaten in their last six or seven matches and with Barcelona missing all those players, I wouldn’t be surprised if Granada won here, but yeah, there’s definitely goals on both sides here and quite possibly the over [inaudible 00:08:21].
Flash:
Roman, we’re getting +375 on Grenada. And if you asked me to price this up, I would’ve gone around the +525. So that tells you straight away that the books do not want to put their head above the parapet. Barcelona, where you are going to tell us and you’re in better place than anyone to tell us what type of Barcelona are going to turn up because before you start, both teams to score is at minus 1.20.
Roman:
Yeah. And both teams to score I think is part I was explaining. And you’re saying it’s a likely case scenario because Barca’s defense, we know isn’t fantastic this season. And also Ronald Araujo just got injured at hand. He’s going to be operated. He’s going to be out for this game. Although Barca are recovering Jordi Alba who played in the Copa games. And so did Dani Alves for those fullback positions, which is something they can of course work in. And I mean, it’s not going to be an easy game, but Barcelona honestly have been improving. They have really struggled in the last couple of games because there’s been so many absences due to COVID and especially injuries, so that’s why that Copa game, the other day was a bit tight. Also that Mallorca game was just a one nil win.
Roman:
But in the end, despite the results Barca, aren’t playing too bad, you can see they’re more of a cohesive team. They don’t depend on individual players like we used to so much on Messi or maybe at some stage on Dembele, et cetera. Now it’s more on the whole… The team as a whole. So if you put some of B team players or you switch things around, the team is still quite decent. So that’s something to look up to. And I think it also depends a lot on the injuries, which are going to come back because apparently there’s up to nine players that could return for the Granada game. And we’re talking Ansu Fati, Pedri, Gavi, Memphis Depay, Abde, even Ferran Torres could arrive for that game because he’s injured and also has to be registered yet, but they’re saying he has a chance of being in that game against Granada.
Roman:
So, of course, if all these guys are available, this gives Barca a very important boost for that game. And they’ll definitely be contenders to win the game, of course. But you said Granada, they’re a dangerous side. They’re doing really well. I think they haven’t lost in the last eight games. I think it’s four wins and four draws. They’re playing good football. And if there was one thing that Granada do at home is score, they score it in every single game. This is not home and I don’t think that’s going to change in this game because as I said, Barca aren’t great defending. And so I think both teams are going to depend more on their offensive weapons than defensive ones. So I think looking at goals is definitely the way to go for this game.
Flash:
Yeah. Look at the DNA of Granda when they play at home, they front press, they absolutely defend so high up the pitch. They want to put you under pressure. What did Barcelona did, they’re not changing the DNA for anyone. They’re not going back to front. They will continue to play the ball out at the back. Now confidence is not high, so I expect Granada to nick the ball back on quite a few occasions in that final third. And if they do, they’re going to bear down. For me, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. I don’t care who gets the winner. I see both teams scoring. If you just want to just be both teams to score, which is a minimum one, one that’s minus 1.20. Both teams score and over 2.5 is an extra 25% because it’s at +100.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at the official page because all three of us are in agreement, we see goals. It’s both teams to score at minus 1.45. Although they’re saying in the [inaudible 00:11:26], that was at minus 120. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at +100 for myself and for Roman. If we do get it correct remember only one unit will go on the team total, one unit will go on our individual totals. Let’s move on to the second game because looks like we can get a price here because it’s Real Madrid versus Valencia. Real Madrid -275 per piece maybe, or you have to look elsewhere. Valencia +750. They’re not shocking anyone this weekend. The draw is at a massive +425, the handicaps at one and half. So if you think Real Madrid can win this game just by the one. Then you take the visitors at -130 and it’s under over tree goals. Roman, I’m not too sure we see four goals in this game.
Roman:
It’s hard to say to be honest. I’m not sure either we are going to see them because of course, Valencia first start, they’re missing a very, very important player in that midfield, which is Carlos Soler. And he not only provides in the midfield defending, but he’s also going forward. He scores the penalties and he also creates from there. And he’s really key in that team. So not having him is definitely a bit of a set back. So I won’t say Valencia can’t score because they still have Guedes who’s a very talented player. Although Maxi Gomez up front, hasn’t been doing great, but I’d be more looking towards Real Madrid in this case because I think they should win this game despite that disappointing, we could say defeats against Getafe, the previous match day where nobody expected them to win, to be honest, but Madrid were just not sharp enough in that game.
Roman:
But now they’re going to have Vinicius back and we can see how important he is and for Madrid in the attack. So having him is definitely something really positive and basically Madrid are going to have all their top starting 11 players available. And also Valencia haven’t won at Bernabeu in the last 13 games. So it’s a stadium where they tend to struggle very, very much. So I definitely see Madrid getting back on track in this one, if nothing goes wrong and with Vinicius on the field and Benzema on the field, I think they have plenty to win against Valencia.
Flash:
Yeah, Pablo, so I’ve got this down and I always write the scores down to what I think is going to be. And I’ve got this down as being a two to tree nil. So that means Valencia not to score at +110. I know VAR can come and bite you on the backside. But with Real Madrid, without Valencia being able to control the midfield, I think Real Madrid do as they want and then they basically just cruise home.
Pablo:
Yeah. I love that. While you were talking about the final score, I said two nil, I don’t know if anyone got it, but I love that two nil and a three nil correct score. Re Madrid, they’ve been excellent decision, best XG with 2.2 per game, best overs with 41 goals. Best XG at home with 2.21 per game. Forth best home often with 18 goals. Still unbeaten at home with six wins and three draws. They’ve kept four clean seats in the last four matches of course, one of them was against inter in the Champions League, but they kept a clean seat against Cadiz. Of course, it was a goalless draw against Atletico Madrid and Bilbao and they don’t have a very good XGA at home, only the 10th best with 1.29, which goes to show that they do allow a couple of potential goals to their opponents, but they do have the second best home different sorry, with just five considered goals.
Pablo:
So even though they do allow some chances to their opponents, they just rarely concede. They’ve only conceded five goals so far and Valencia are not so good. They have the ninth best XG with 1.4 per game, third best often with 31 goals. They’re overachieving there. They have the seventh worst XGA with 1.45 per game and the fourth worst difference with 28 goals conceded. So that’s going to be tough against the best difference in the best often in the league in Real Madrid often.
Pablo:
Valencia last but not least, they have the seventh best XGA on the road with 1.35 per game, but they have the fourth worst away difference with 16 conceded goals given the fact that they’ve traditionally struggled in this venue. I just definitely see Real Madrid winning this one. I’m not so sure on the goals because they’re contradicting stats here because Real Madrid have had a lot of unders in their home matches while Valencia, they tend to take their matches on the road. They like rodeos 4 1, 3 1, 3 2, 3 4. I’m not so sure in the totals, but this looks like Real Madrid win quite possibly with a clean seat. They’ve also kept three clean seats in the last three home matches against Valencia. So there’s another thing to consider. So yeah, I definitely see Real Madrid winning to nil here. Maybe not many goals. This is just a bad spot for Valencia I think
Flash:
No, I like that Pablo. So Roman when we see Valencia and they’re going away and they’re like 4 1, 4 2, 5 1, 5 6 it’s because they think they can win the game and they get them fall back to bombing on. They seem to have a different mentality when they go and play visit Madrid because they both sit in, they try to tie it, they try and stay in the game long time and not seeing how they’re going to break out to be honest, because they’ve got to play through midfield because you go from back to front and with the way that Madrid defense so deeply, because they want to stretch the game and give their individual stars as much room as possible. I think Valencia not to score here at +110 is a really good one. And the other one I’m seeing in the chat was Ashley saying Benzema to score and Real Madrid to win, which normally happens.
Roman:
Yeah. That’s a very likely case scenario because Benzema this season has been great. The best striker there is so far probably with Vinicius, but Benzema is a much more of a killer, we could say another finisher than Vinicius. And in terms of Valencia not scoring, it is a possibility, although it is a game where you go quite motivated. They want to try and bounce at the Bernabeu and trying to get a point, but it’s going to be tough because as we said before, they tend to struggle a lot in that stadium. And with Bordalas, the mentality also has changed a lot. Valencia’s a very different team. They are way more… They’re rougher. They go more intensely. They generate way more, sorry, yellow cards, red cards. There’s a different kind of style and I don’t know if they can sit back against a team like Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. It’s a very complicated game because Madrid keep pressing, pressing and pressing and the end, they just break down. And when you go for a counter attack and you don’t make the most of it, then they come back at you and score.
Flash:
Well, that’s where I was heading to. That’s what I was alluding to is that the Valencia come out their holes, the pace that Madrid show on the break, they’re just going to be asking for trouble. So they’ve got to sit in and make sure there’s no space down the sides or over the top.
Roman:
Yeah, basically that’s it. I’m not saying they can’t score because any given play can… Goal can take place and they have certain quality up front, especially Guedes who is a very talented player going forward. But that’s why I was saying for me, I would just stick with going for Madrid in this sense, but Valencia not to score is also an option, I guess.
Flash:
Yeah. I like it a lot. Give me my official picks please, because as you can see there, we’ve got Madrid and under 4.5 at -150, brings in the two nil and three nil that we both enjoyed. Going to a bit squarely there though, to be fair. Valencia not to score at +110. I’m sticking with it. It paid dividends last week with Cadiz. Pablo.
Pablo:
I’d like to say just a quick start for Ashley because she said Benzema to score and Real Madrid to win. I’d like to say that I was looking at the stats now Benzema has scored seven goals in the last six matters against Valencia. So I love that bit. I just love it.
Flash:
There you. Pablo has given you the thumbs up and let’s hope that cash is for you as well. Yeah. So I’ve gone with Valencia not to score and that will suit Roman, because Roman is gone for Real Madrid and under 4.5 at minus -150. Let’s move on to the next game because I need help here. As you know, where I want to be going. It’s the Rayo versus Real Betis. Is Rayo at +150 massive, massive pick them up -120 pick them being drawn over there. Real Betis at +175. Disappointed last week, let us down in the [inaudible 00:19:42] that are on the naughty steps. So we don’t need any encouragement to actually throw them out. The draw up +255, the under and over and 2.5 with the over at -120. Roman talked me out of it. If you can, because I don’t want to be with Rayo at +150 because they’re at home and they only want to attack you.
Roman:
Of course you want to go for Rayo Vallecano, but in my case, I’m just a bit skeptical about this game because Betis are a very good team and I was really surprised to see that result against Celta Vigo. They’re capable of way, way more. They are quality, they have [inaudible 00:20:22], they have Canales, they have Juan who’s scoring goal after goal this season. And I just not sure it’s going to be an easy one for Rayo Vallecano, still recovering a lot of players from COVID. I think most them should be available.
Roman:
The main doubt is possibly Catena, one of their center backs, who’s been their best defender this season and also Alvaro Garcia, he’s injured. He’s the top scorer, I think of the team this season. He’s been incredible, definitely leading that team in attack. And I’m not sure he’s going to be for that game. He’s still doubtful till the end. So these things make me doubt a bit and also take into count that Betis is a team which goes with streaks. They win 3, 4, 5 in a row. Then suddenly they lose 2, 3, and then they come back again and start winning. So just because of that, not too sure. And I really go with Rayo like you, because they’ve given us a lot of money this season. They’re doing really well at home. [inaudible 00:21:11].
Flash:
No one. And listen, all three of us can pat ourselves on the back because I told you, 11 minutes into the first game of the first match day, I was like, I’m with Rayo Vallecano. Everyone’s like, oh, they’re going to be relegated and this and that and I may have been one of them people as well, but after that, listen, and the reason I’ve not gone for them Pablo is because Betis are one of the best sides and they’ve shown it in Europe of hitting you on the counter. They’re going to get plenty opportunity to hit Rayo on the counter.
Pablo:
Yeah. I’m also watching what Ashley said about Rayo’s numbers, that’s going to be some regress. And then we talked about this in recent shows that Rayo Vallecano, these are the decision. I think it was in the first five or six home matches. They got the best numbers. They had the best XG or the second best XG or something like that at home. But we just have to say this, the 10 matches they played at home, they were all against the bottom half of the league table. I think only Barcelona is from the top half. And when they did play against Barcelona, maybe Barcelona was in the bottom half. I don’t really remember if they were or not, but I think the record at home, which is the best in the league, eight wins one draw zero losses-
Flash:
That’s what I know in the bottom half Pablo, then numbers you’re saying and the stats are the same as Ash and I’m happy to hear all arguments. The reason that the teams that they played and they beat are in the bottom half is because they beat them and they got three more points than them. So I think that what came with the Vallecano home form was confidence. And if it keeps rolling, they’d now looking a bit like we used to say about Malaga. No one wanted to travel to Malaga, because that’s where they got all their points and that’s how they stayed in LaLiga. Granada, they were the other team. Now all of a sudden we’ve got to put Rayo Vallecano in there because no one wants to go there.
Pablo:
Yeah, it’s true. But I actually wrote this in my books that I’m going to fade the Vallecano. I’m saying it openly here. I’m going to fade Vallecano, not in this much, but in the future. They’re going to be one of the teams that I’m going to fade at home, but I’m going to back them on the road. Because even though they have a terrible record on the road, but they play against all the good teams on the road. So I’m confident they’re going to get some results on the road throughout the second half of the season. But as far as this much goes, I see a lot of goals. Rayo Vallecano, they do have the best home defense with just three conceded goals. But they have the eight best XGA at home with 1.2 per game.
Pablo:
That means that they allow their opponents to take shots, but they’re just very good at defending. Well, Betis, they have the second best offers with 32 goals, third best XG with 1.73. Fourth best XG on the road with 1.51 and the fifth best away [inaudible 00:23:59] with 13 goals. So I definitely see Betis getting on the score sheet here possibly multiple times. I don’t want to make a big statements, but I do think that Betis wants a scoreless for the second consecutive LaLiga matchs because it did score three against Valladolid in the Copa del Rey.
Pablo:
But yeah, I think this is a match where we have two very good defensive lines, two not so great defenses. Rayo Vallecano, they do have the best home defense and one of the best defenses in the entire league. I think they have the fifth best offense, sorry, the third best defense with 20 considered goals. But I expect that to change in the coming weeks. And I think this is a match where it starts at 1-1 and I think we’ll see an extra goal. And keep in mind that Betis, they beat Rayo Vallecano by three to two in the reverse fixture in late October, I think. So yeah, Rayo Vallecano, they scored twice on the road where they traditionally struggled. So why not at home? So yeah, I see goals here. So I like both them to score and over two and a half
Flash:
Now, listen, I agree with you and Roman agrees with you. I don’t think you can go with sides with the way that Rayo Vallecano play home or away. I’m happy, I wouldn’t fade them away from home as in, well, I certainly wouldn’t back them to win away from home. I think you just go with goals and goals being involved because it’s proved so correct for them that even when they’ve lost, you just said but this one 3-2. It’s all always going to be both teams to score and over. Or it’s going to be team total over one and a half for their opposition when they’re on the road. So, I don’t think you go, because Vallecano will surprise a few teams when they’re on the road because there’ll be teams that will be desperate for points because they’ve had a dodgy first half of the season, but let’s have a look at the official picks because I’m sitting on the fence.
Flash:
Honestly, I’ve turned the into a big [inaudible 00:25:48] here. It’s both teams to score and over two and a half at +110. That looks like a great price. Why am I not getting involved in that? Or even one of these draw no bet around the -115, -120. But yes, good game. Definitely a game to watch and Betis and not to be under estimated just because they got beaten last week. All right, move on. Talking about me turning into a big blouse, nothing more evident than them.
Flash:
Villarreal versus Atletico. I’ve been on the Villarreal train. I’m not getting off it. +117. My eyes are like sources, draw no be at -110. It’s identical for the visitors Atletico at +170. Draw no bet at -110. The draw is at +225. That scares me because anytime it’s close to 200, you just go blind and the under and over is at two and a half. Okay. Roman, I am not having Villarreal get beaten. I’m liking Villarreal team to just liking, not loving at +165. I’m liking Villareal at +170 and I don’t see him getting beat. So draw no bet at -110.
Roman:
Draw no bet is a very good value, I think if you believe they can actually pull something out of this, definitely. And they’ve been much, much better in the last weeks or so or month even say, because they’ve got really, really good results. All those wins have definitely built up in their confidence. I wouldn’t look too much at that Copa del Ray defeat from today against Sporting Gijon by 2-1-
Flash:
No one played, there were nine changes, I think.
Roman:
Yeah. Well, but all the good one did come on the second half, but they still couldn’t pull it off, so careful. I’m just kidding. But anyway, I still think LaLiga is definitely more important to them because they start off really badly and they’re still climbing positions and they’re getting closer to those European spots that they really want to get into. And I think it’s good to see that Perillo is going to be back because last game I think he had COVID, so he wasn’t available or at least didn’t play. And I think Villarreal biggest setback is that they’re going to have a lot of players go into the Cup Africa or the African Cup in this case. With Boulaye Dia, who’s been really good lately, scoring a lot of goals. Chukwueze who’s also been quite nice in that wing position and the other ones, Mandi and Sergio they haven’t been as an important, but it’s always setback to lose players that aren’t going to be there.
Roman:
And then Danjuma, we were waiting to see what happens with him because he’s constantly injured. He started off being possibly the best signing of the summer transfer market here in Spain, he was doing fantastically well. And unfortunately now he’s having so many injuries and he hasn’t really returned to his full rhythm at the moment, but still there’s a lot of firepower there for Gerard Moreno, Parejo, Trigueros, Yeremy Pino, et cetera, and playing at home. I do think they can get something out of this game. Maybe even a draw could be a result to look into because Atletico Madrid, it’s not the Atletico from last season where you knew they would pull off a one nail win and go home and you would pocket the money. Now it’s like a very different side and they can have a really good game, but at the same time, they can be a very, very poor. And they’re going to miss Luis Suarez for this one, he’s suspended and so is Jimenez in that defensive position.
Flash:
Now that’s the reason I’ve not gone full blast on Villarreal because I think Atletico are going to be better off without Suarez because-
Roman:
It’s possible.
Flash:
Sorry.
Roman:
It’s very possible, yeah.
Flash:
Because I think Villarreal will dominate the ball. I know that Atletico are going to set up in two solid banks. Now the beauty I was loving about Villarreal was they’re not going to get done on the break with Suarez up front because he’s not going to run away. He couldn’t run away from me now, but new blood coming in that has pace, it’s going to obviously then help athletic go get further up the pitch. And that was my worry. If Suarez had played, I’d be all over this +170 for the hosts.
Roman:
Yeah. I think Luis Suarez to be honest, this season has nothing to do with the important player they had last season that was winning games, getting three points after three points. You can tell that physically, mentally, and in terms of scoring goals, he’s lost a bit of that quality he’s always had and he’s not being that important player Atletico need. And definitely other players like Angel Correa, even Cunha is stepping up. Carrasco is doing well. So these guys are going to get the goals in [inaudible 00:29:59].
Flash:
And there’s no pace assigned to any of them players you mentioned, is there?
Roman:
Well, no. Carrasco and Correa, Lemar, they’re-
Flash:
They’re quicker with the ball than they are without it.
Roman:
I guess that’s possible, but I mean they’re not slow either. They’re-
Flash:
They’re not Vini JR, are they?
Roman:
Sorry.
Flash:
They’re they’re not like Vinicius.
Roman:
Well, not. Vinicius is probably one of a kind in the sense, they still have this players, Lemar, Griezmann, Carrasco, Correa, those guys can make a difference-
Flash:
Yeah, they’re all quality footballers. And this is where I’m saying, you’ve got to look sometimes that when you have a team that’s going to have a majority of the ball like Villarreal are going to have, then you need to have that explosive pace, even if it comes from full back areas. And [inaudible 00:30:42] just do not see, they have all quality relaxed footballers. And that’s where I think Atletico has struggled this year is because their intensity and they’ve not been able to burst teams, especially if teams have took the game to them.
Roman:
Yeah, that’s true. They’ve definitely lost a bit of that in that sense. Sorry, Pablo. And it’s true that Atletico Madrid on that counter attacking side before they used to stay back defend and just shoot out running, but they still have the ability to do so because as I said guys like Lemar and Carrasco could perfectly make that work, but Cholo tried to go for a different approach this season and it hasn’t been working well, to be honest.
Flash:
No, they didn’t. They need new players. I certainly don’t think it’s time for Simeone to go. I think it’s just a changing of the guard on the pitch and it may be a changing of the DNA and getting some just pure blistering pace in that side because they’re all still top quality players Pablo. Can you split these two teams?
Pablo:
I was talking to you guys about this match in the preshow room and this… I don’t know what to do this match. I love Villarreal. I love what they’re doing. I love the fact that we keep discussing about them in every show and we keep hitting the nail on the head. We read them like an open book, mostly. About this Atletico Madrid side, I simply have no idea what is going on with their numbers. What is going on in general. Maybe there’s something in Simeone head that he can’t quite transfer to the players. I Don know what’s going on. They’re quite solid at home, but on the road they’ve been simply terrible decision. Don’t let their… What’s their record? Four wins, four losses, two draws. Don’t let that fool you, they should have had more losses because I think three of those wins, they overturned them in the final, like five minutes.
Pablo:
They haven’t kept a single clean sheet on the road this season. They have conceded multiple goals against Granada, against Valencia, against Lavante. I’m not so sure what’s the deal with them on the road, but they’re bad on the road, in my opinion, they’re bad. However, there is something weird in their numbers. They do have the best XGA in the road with 1.06 per game, but they do have the fourth worst away difference with 16 conceded goals. And that’s really puzzling to me. I’m not sure maybe they allow very few shots, but when they do, they go in and if that’s the case, what’s going to happen when Gerard Moreno is against them. I think they’re going to get destroyed. I think if they’re not very careful, Gerard Moreno and the other guys are going to be… They’re going to terrorize that difference. So I do like your team total of Villarreal over one and a half. I think you mentioned that earlier.
Flash:
Yeah. +165, the number almost scares me.
Pablo:
Yeah, that definitely makes sense here. But I personally I’m staying away from this much, but I love that. I definitely see that happening. The problem is that they’re missing a couple of players. Roman said that about [inaudible 00:34:00] and other players. So that could maybe rock their boat a little bit. But as long as Moreno is at the helm, I’m trusting this ship. So I definitely see Villarral scoring multiple goals against this terrible, in my opinion, Atletico Madrid difference. And that’s all I have to say. Good luck with-
Flash:
That’s the problem and you know that I love the yellow sub marine, is that Atletico turn up in these big games and you know that I’m not an Atletico fan as in, the way they play or the way they get results. But, and this is where I keep coming back to the but, I can see this being a one, one draw, which then kills my team totally. It kills me if I went for the +170 money line, I just feel that Villarreal don’t get beat. So then I’m basically got like a free bet, and it’s certainly not a free hit because I’d let it go against anyone on their day can produce.
Roman:
Sorry. I think the first game was actually a 1-1 or 2-2 draw. Atletico scored a lucky goal with a mistake from the defender and the goalkeeper and Villarreal should have won that game to be fair.
Flash:
Yeah. And Villarreal were thrown away so many points. I remember earlier on in the year, it was a dodgy back pass and Osasuna got in in the 92nd minute and I’m sitting there going, how? They dominated the whole game. Official pick then gentlemen, because I think we’ve put enough meat on the bone. Everyone knows where we are coming from. It’s Villarreal draw no bet for me at -110. Both teams to score at -130, wouldn’t put anyone off maybe the draw at +225. But again, I think it’s going to be a really good game. Maybe Villarreal at half time might be the way to go because I think Villareal come out and I don’t see Atletico scoring in the first half. So I don’t know. Listen, draw no bet -110.
Flash:
Let’s move on to our last game. I was a little bit surprised that this game was even on air. Espanyol versus Elche. Espanyol -120, that tells you everything you need to know about this game, because Espanyol are never soccer odds on, especially against… Elche +350, draw +260. Under over is two and a half [inaudible 00:36:10]. Pablo, I’m looking at the under two and a half goals, is at -145. That tells me that really the line’s two, not two and a half.
Pablo:
Yeah, that’s true. And I get that because Espanyol, especially at home, they tend to keep the masses on a low intensity, not many goals. Of course, there as much 4-3 against Levante, but that was just a weird result because most of the winds come by one nil, two nil, maybe 2-1. So there is not a lot of overs in that match. And of course, we have to say that Espanyol they’ve been great at home this season. They have six wins, two draws and one loss. And they played against Real Sociedad. They played against Bilbao, they beat Real Madrid. They only lost Atletico Madrid and they also had a draw against Villarreal. So they show up against big teams and their only loss was against Atletico Madrid.
Pablo:
And I think it was a match where Atletico Madrid, yes, they scored twice in the last 10 minutes.
Flash:
Yeah late on.
Pablo:
The last goal was in the ninth minute of stoppage time. So that could have been a draw and Espanyol could have been unbeaten at home. And when you pair that up with Elche, who haven’t been anything special on the road, they have just one win, seven losses and two draws. They conceded goals left and right. Their only clean seats on the road have come against a couple of regional sites in the Copa del Ray. And they also have another one against Getafe in the league play. But yeah, this is a very, very bad difference for Elche. While Espanyol, they’ve been really, really, really good at home. Of course, what worries me just a little bit is the fact that Espanyol’s difference hasn’t been producing very good numbers. They have the third worst XGA with 1.63 per game, but they have the fifth best difference in the entire league with 22 conceded goals.
Pablo:
Moreover, they might have the second worst XGA at home with 1.68 per game, but they have the fourth best home difference with just seven conceded goals. So yeah, I see Espanyol winning this one. Elche haven’t proved anything on the road. They only beat Getafe on the road. Of course, they did have quite of a tough schedule with Villarreal, Sociadad, Atletico Madrid, but they failed to beat Ososuna, Mallorca, Alaves. So yeah, I see Espanyol here winning by a small margin, possibly one nil, two nil, something like that. Of course, the reverse picture was a 2-2 draw when Elche hosted, but there was three second half goals. So I don’t expect that to happen again. So we’re looking at a low scoring match. Espanyol to win and possibly Elche not to score.
Flash:
Yeah. This is why I’m looking away from the screen because I’m actually looking here and saying Espanyol and under four and a half. We do not see five goals in this game. Espanyol to win and under four and a half goals is +100. That’s a 25% upgrade on the money line at -120. And I’m just going to have a little look here now, because it’s Espanyol to win and both teams to score, no is a massive +185, Roman.
Roman:
I think those are very tempting bets because there are two Espanyols in this season in LaLiga, the one that plays at home and the one that plays away. At home, they’ve won six games, two draws just one defeat and then playing away complete opposite. They’ve won just one game, they drawn three and lost six. So when they’re at home, you can definitely feel they’re way more comfortable. They’ve got the fans there and the team is just a very big threat to any team that comes to visit. Especially the big teams as Pablo was saying. They get that extra motivation and get really good results. And if I had to pick here, I would go for Espanyol, I was quite tempted to be on this, but I just wasn’t sure because Elche don’t have a bad team overall.
Roman:
They’ve improved the season and Lucas Boye, he’s back from the COVID and he’s a very good striker. And he always worries me a bit, but logic says that Espanyol should get a win if their defenses is solid as it usually is at home. And they have Raul de Tomas who will score, I’d say that’s another one to look into. Raul de Tomas scoring at some point in this game, because he is Espanyol in attack. He’s the guy who gets 50% or more of those goals they score. So if I had to pick, I definitely would tend towards Espanyol.
Flash:
Yeah, but -105 had just both teams to score, even if Espanyol go and win the game 3-2, are we edging towards both teams scoring or are we expecting Espanyol to win this, maybe comfortably 2-0?
Roman:
That’s the thing. I was doubting in that sense. I’m not sure if Elche are going to get their goal, it is a possibility. I don’t see Espanyol winning that comfortably like a two nil, I’d rather see a one nil or so something like that or maybe a 2-1. That’s why I just wasn’t completely sure a version of Elche we would see.
Flash:
But we’re definitely not seeing five goals, are we?
Roman:
No. I don’t think it’s going to be [inaudible 00:41:07]. I think it’s going to be a few goals as Pablo said and maybe two, maybe three.
Flash:
Okay. So in the chat then maybe we’re going to pick up something here between us because Espanyol to win and under four and a half. So there’s not five goals in the game, Espanyol win. Instead of mine at -120, you’re going to get +100. Okay. Let’s go back right to the start. By the way, while we are doing our work and you are sitting there enjoying it with your peanuts, your glass of wine, your cup of tea with your feet up, what about pressing the thumbs up and show some appreciation for Pablo and for Roman. And while you are there, why don’t you subscribe if you haven’t already. Want to get closer to 4,000 subscribers because then I can go to the bosses at the end of the year and say, “Hey, they love their soccer and it’s world cup year.”
Flash:
So I need to have as many… As much armory on me to make sure that I can then bring you or we as my team, that US can bring you all of the world cup as well in November. Because listen, in a blink of an eye, it will be upon us and also press the ring the bell. Ring the bell means you’ll never miss any content. And that reminds me that 10:00 AM Eastern tomorrow, it’s Bundesliga. I think it’s 2:30 Eastern tomorrow, it’s Serie A. And then on Monday, it’s the Australian open. No Novak Djokovic, so we’re going to have a new name, maybe not a new name, but we’re definitely going to have a new champion this year. So Pablo have a great weekend, sir. Great [inaudible 00:42:31].
Roman:
You forgot the pick by the way.
Flash:
I forgot the what, mate?
Roman:
The last pick from Pablo for this game.
Pablo:
Oh, did we forgot my pick?
Roman:
There you go.
Flash:
Oh, Roman, that’s what I like teammates, but it was no surprise though, is it? Espanyol money line -120 and I said it nine times during the show. I was trying to get him an upgrade to +100.
Pablo:
Yeah. Thanks. That was nice actually.
Flash:
Yeah. Well, if you listen, everyone follows you on Twitter anyway. So if you do have any changes, like I may in Villarreal or Rayo Vallecano games, then please make sure you follow us, betus_soccer. There, I’m looking, I’m seeing like Valencia under. Yeah, liking it. I’m just like it. I think we’ve gone pretty safe this week. No real big boosts. Normally Roman, you come up with a couple of +250s or something like that, but no, it’s all good. And by the way, fire dancer, I know you’re stuck in an airport, but it’s no excuse for creeping in out the back there. Just opening the door like you were at school when you are late. You’ve known all week what time we were on, no excuses for everyone at BetUS. We look forward to seeing you again tomorrow.
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