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Watson:

Time flash, it’s La Liga. It’s match date 21. Now we are America’s favorite sportsbook, so we’re asking you to please subscribe, get us closer to 4,000, and we are closing in on that every single day. More importantly at the moment though, is to ring the bell so that we notify you and you do not miss any content. And there’s plenty content, right across the BetUS TV channel as well, with the Australian Open going on. There’s plenty value to be had there. NFL closing weeks. Now, this is La Liga. I must say congratulations to Real Madrid who won the Super Cup. It’s funny though, because they didn’t win La Liga or Copa del Rey. And yet, here they are winning the Super Cup. I thought you have to win something to get into that, but no, for the third year in a row, the team that has not won anything in Spain ends up winning the Super Cup. Big, big, hello, obviously to Pavlos, who is our man with the numbers, the stats, and he’s the man who finds all the value. Now here’s the man who normally builds up all of the profits for La Liga Lowdown. It’s Paco, he’s our long term friend. Paco, it’s great to see you back, mate. I hope you are well, and for Lisa and you, senor.

Polit:

Happy New Year to everyone, even though we are already deep into the January, but as always it’s a pleasure to be with you guys. I see that Pavlos’s beard continues to grow gloriously, and I see that-

Watson:

Or his head’s shrinking.

Polit:

Yeah. Well, and I see that flash. Well, you seem like always, so you haven’t changed a little bit since the last time.

Watson:

Yeah. It’s been a long time though. It’s been a long time. What have you been up to, and have you missed us?

Polit:

Yes, I have missed you guys, obviously, and all of our viewers. Up to many, many, many broadcasts, like football games, basketball games, women basketball games, everything over here in Valencia in Spain, so yeah, plenty of busy months lately. And I expect those busy months to continue until the season finishes next June.

Watson:

Yeah. Okay. Let’s have a little look. Paco. Look at this record. Look at this record. Look at that. Look at that. Just the top one. Just the top one. I know that it was like, but the La Liga Lowdown profits were like nine when you left, nine, and Romo has just beasted away at your record. I honestly, I always say the same to him, I’m like Paco leaves you with such a great statistics and his great positive record, and you come in and just spend all Paco’s winnings.

Polit:

Yeah, he’s the one who splurges the cash from the both of us. I’m the saving one, you know.

Watson:

Okay. And Pavlos, listen Pavlos, you were down like nine units. Now it’s like minus three. You’re chipping away at that, but look at the total. Nearly 10 units of profits, you put a hundred dollars on. Then there, you would be at $954 of profit if it was 10. Then listen, it’s still nine and a half times your money. Let’s get that off, because we have some really interesting games to go through. Remember, it’s a really short card this week. There’s only five games because of the amount of the teams that were involved in the Super Cup. And obviously some of them teams would’ve been playing against the Super Cup sides, so they’re not going to be in action, but we’ve got five games to go through.

Watson:

We’re going to kick off with the first game, because this first game looks like there could be plenty value to be had. It is Betis versus Alaves Betis, minus one at minus 115. Looks like a free hit for Alaves at plus 600. The draw at plus 325. The under/over is at two and a half. Welcome back, Paco. Is this Betis home win?

Polit:

Yeah, possibly. So, especially after coming off that amazing derby win last Sunday, yesterday after beating Sevilla in the local derby, which was pretty heated up in the first half of the game. Remember later, the incident happened with one fan throwing a plastic stick and hitting John Jordan, one of Sevilla’s players. The game had to be suspended. It was once again, kick started 24 hours later, and finally Betis was able to win with that amazing canale strike. So at the end of the day, Betis are able to keep their amazing stretch going, third in the standings at this point in La Liga, Pellegrini’s doing an amazing job, all of their players seem in tip top form, and the team is looking very, very good. If you add to that that they’re playing against Alaves, who are in deep trouble and actually fighting for their lives at the bottom of the standings, well, I believe that Betis have all of the advantage in this picture.

Watson:

Alaves to score though, Paco? Plus 115 for them to not score. Is that where the value is? Or do we think that Betis could take their foot off the gas once they get into a comfortable little lead?

Polit:

Well, I later elaborate on going for the playing Betis win [inaudible 00:05:08], because I believe that it’s better not to risk. Yeah, it’s through that back in the day, Betis allowed many, many goals, and it’s true that they have adjusted accordingly, especially at the back, and they’re looking better and better defensively against Sevilla, allowing one goal. It’s something that most teams do, but I sure can see a clean sheet for Real Betis.

Watson:

Okay. Pavlos, what are your numbers saying? Are we going to see, Betis get three here? Because it’s minus 160, minus 170 for Betis to score twice. I mean, the numbers here are telling us that it’s two-one minimum, which means over two and a half is at minus 125. We see a minimum of three goals here?

Laguretos:

Well, it’s tough. And I think this might be a match where Betis are going to have to score twice to beat Alaves. I mean, Alaves’ numbers haven’t been very good on the road and overall, but they did score in I believe five of their last six away matches for the league. And there’s a couple of goals in the Copa del Rey as well, but against lower sides. But yeah, Alaves haven’t been very good on the road lately, but they do find ways to score. They score twice against Via Real, once against Granada, twice against a Sevilla, and once against Barcelona, and Betis aren’t really the best defensive side out there. They have the ninth worst XGA with 1.4 per game allowed. They do have the seventh best defense with 24 conceded goals, but that’s still a lot of goals they’re going to see in a span of 20 matches.

Laguretos:

And at home, they have the 10th best XGA at home with 1.3 per game, but they do have the fourth worst home defense with 12 conceded goals. And, I wouldn’t be surprised if Alaves got in the score sheet here, but I believe that Betis, especially after beating Sevilla, in what was a really weird match, I believe that they’ll be able to win this one possibly by, I believe that they’ll score two or more goals.

Laguretos:

Now for the third one, I’m not so sure, because Alaves, even though they’re kind of bad on the road, they have just one win, six losses, and two draws, and they did concede two plus goals in five of those matches, they don’t usually get destroyed. I mean, they only lost by three or more goals to Via Real and Valencia, which are very good teams, but you all the other matches, they lose by one goal. So, I’m not so sure if Betis will be able to destroy them, especially with this match being sandwiched in between the Sevilla match a couple of days ago, and all teams have another match coming up in the weekend. So, I’m not so sure if we’ll see a lot of goals, but I believe that Betis should win this match. Of course, Alaves are fighting for their lives, but Betis have given us very few things to worry about, especially when they play at home, they’ve only lost to Celta and Sevilla and Real Madrid this season. But whenever they score, they win. They didn’t score in all three losses, and they lost.

Laguretos:

So, I believe they’ll score. I believe they’ll score two or more goals, possibly Alaves to get in the score sheet, but I fancy Betis’s chances here.

Watson:

So, Betis maybe to score twice. Paco’s already alluded that he’s just going to go straight Betis win at minus 200, just saving up Paco. You’re not really going out on a limb there. Welcome back, Paco. I like the over two and a half goals, to be honest, at minus 125, and also, the Betis win at minus 200 could well be a parlay piece. I know that we’ve only got five games, but I’m sure that we could maybe pick a little partner for that parlay piece a little bit further on in the show. So, it’s Betis versus Alaves. We’re probably going to go with the over, two and a half. We’re definitely seeing the home team win. Let’s have a look at the official picks, because only one of us hasn’t gone anywhere near it. It’s minus 160 and minus 200 in the value for the boys, but a winner’s a winner to team total for Betis to score twice for Pavlos, and Paco, welcome back with the massive minus 200. But as I say, the winner’s a winner, Paco.

Watson:

Let’s move on to our second game, because this game here, I’m certainly interested. It’s Cadiz versus Espanyol. Cadiz plus 240, Espanyol at plus 135. We always have to look straight down to the draw when these two are involved, and there it is at plus 210. You know the rules, anytime it’s anywhere near plus 200, you just have to go for the draw, and it comes up 80% of the time. And when you’re getting like plus 200 or more, than it’s worth going with it. Under/over is only set at two, which Paco, I’m going to come to you first, because I like this game being very, very tight. Neither side likes to bomb forward, because they need to keep the back door closed, because they’re not blessed with goals. So, what about a little bit of draw at plus 210, which goes without saying?

Polit:

Yeah, obviously there are many things going for the draw in this game, especially as Cadiz sacked earlier this week, Álvaro Cervera, the coach who got Cadiz once again promoted to La Liga, and has done an amazing job with possibly the worst squad of the whole competition out of the 20 teams. But yeah, results eventually come and bite everyone back in the you know where, okay, so Álvaro was dismissed, and in came Sergio Gonzalez, who is by the way, a former legend for Espanyol. So, plenty of saucy details in the preview of this game.

Polit:

And always, always, always that we see changing in the coach, especially in Spain where we say that [foreign language 00:10:42], a new coach means like a 100% guaranteed victory, that’s not the case for Cadiz. I expect the team to be even more defensive that they were under Álvaro Cervera. I don’t think that Sergio Gonzalez is going to be able to make an impact in so little time. And that’s why I believe that if you add that Espanyol haven’t been that great lately, even though they were able to beat Valencia at their own turf a couple of weeks ago, and they have an impressive record out of their own stadium, I see both forces eventually balancing out each other. And that’s why the draw, even though I didn’t go for the draw in my official picks, it’s looking very, very tasty.

Watson:

Yeah. It looks like a nil-nil at halftime for me, Pavlos, ’cause I think if one of these teams are going to win, it’s going to be a little bit of loss of concentration. Before you start going into this game for me, Grace from Zambia says hello and wants to know, or a little bit of a welcome from us at BetUS to all the Zambians that are watching. And we really appreciate everything. And let’s hope that all your bets are winners, and you continue enjoying and supporting us here at BetUS. Pavlos, nil-nil halftime?

Laguretos:

Yeah. I love it. I love it. I was actually looking at the halftime stats for the two sides. Cadiz have drawn at halftime in five of their ten home matches so far. They have two wins, three losses, and five draws. They have scored just two goals, and they have conceded three. So, this awfully looks like it’s starting to look like a goalless draw at halftime. And when you look at the Espanyol, they won just one of their 10 away matches so far, one win, six losses, three draws. They have drawn halftime in five of their 10 away matches. They have five losses and five draws at halftime. They’ve scored just two goals and they have conceded seven. So, we have two teams that they have played ten games each, Cadiz at home and Espanyol on the road, and they have scored a total of four goals combined.

Laguretos:

So, and Cadiz, they have the worst XG, worst XG at home, second worst offense, worst home offense. I mean, their offensive numbers are just horrible, horrible. Their defensive numbers are also horrible, but Espanyol on the road, they haven’t been very good. They have the third worst away offense with just eight goals. They do have the fifth best away difference with 15 conceded goals. So yeah, I do see a draw half time, possibly a goalless one between two teams that Cadiz, they need all the points they can grab, so safeguarding their defense is one way to start. If they don’t concede, at least they won’t miss all three points. So, maybe a draw wouldn’t be catastrophic for Cadiz, but these are the matches that you have to win, especially with teams that have won just won away match so far. So yeah, I think this is going to be a very careful match between the two sides. Someone mentioned that both teams who score know, and I also like that. This is a match where I personally don’t want to get involved, because I loved my other picks more, but yeah, the numbers all point towards a very low-scoring first half, and quite possibly a goalless draw.

Watson:

Yeah. Don’t expect it to be one-one at half time. That is for sure, Paco, because the one thing you could… You shake it like you;re giving it one of those., as if to say I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s one-one. Are you fancying a draw at halftime?

Polit:

No, not really. I 100% agree with that Pavlos said, and actually I broadcasted the only game that they won away from home against Valencia, as I said earlier. So, their streak is awful away from home, and that’s why they are going always to try to at least pick up a point on the road, because that’s positive for them. They are right now in the middle of the standings, like no problem, nor hot nor cold. They are far away from European spots, they are far away from relegation, so that’s where Espanyol should be at the end of the day.

Polit:

Whereas for Cadiz, they obviously need the points, but new manager, sacking the former manager wasn’t so well received by the fan base. Actually, the farewell Álvaro was amazing from the fans. So, I expect a strange atmosphere in the ground, and that’s why nil-nil at halftime, and eventually a full time draw could be the way to go, even though I didn’t go that way.

Watson:

Okay. So just a little recap, it’s under/over two goals, which tells you everything. We don’t think that both teams are going to score. And we certainly think a blind man could see it being nil-nil at halftime. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because there it is, draw half time at minus 110, 45 minutes, job done, maybe a couple of minutes of injury time, and then sit back and let these two slug it out. But I wouldn’t put anyone one off of the draw at around plus 215 for the full 94, 95 minutes, but if you go to betus.com, there’s alternative markets where you could have this as a draw after 70 minutes, maybe at plus 200, and not worry about that late VIR decision, or a team going down at 10 men, or just any eventuality that finds a way to take your money. So, 75 minute mark, the draw, Cadiz versus Espanyol, but for me, it’s just at half time, draw half time, minus 110.

Watson:

Let’s move on to game number three. Here it is, still. Matter of fact like deja-vu isn’t it? Cadiz versus Espanyol still? I think that’s like me just playing tricks with my mind as I’m getting old. It’s Celta versus Osasuna, it’s Celta minus 115. Osasuna is a plus 365. It’s under/over two and a half, with the favorite being under, so they fancy just the two goals at minus 140. That’s really juiced. But the draw is at plus 240. I’m not Paco. I’m not having Celta. I’m just thinking that they’re flattering. They’re not showing any form home or a way. You go against them, and they sort of manage a draw. I could never have Celta at minus 115 against Osasuna.

Polit:

Yeah, these two teams are very, very similar in performance, even though the way they play is radically different. And that is related to the reliability. In Osasuna’s case, for example, they were able to win last week after so many games losing, and even getting knocked out of Copa del Rey against Girona, who is from second division. So, Osasuna needed the points, and they were able to pick them up. Whereas for Celta, they’re capable of the best and of the worst. Usually whenever [inaudible 00:17:07] is involved, they’re able to win and get the three points and make incredible comebacks, as we saw earlier this season against Barca, for example, but they don’t have the consistency. And that’s why home games for Celta can go either way. And that’s why they are so unpredictable. That’s why the scores and odds are so high in many cases. And that’s why, in my case, I went straight off, like away from, I don’t want to have anything to do with this game because it’s so easy to fall into a pithole. You don’t have any sort of trend that you can follow. Osasuna have done great games on the road, but again, their strength is at home most of the time. And that’s why Celta-Osasuna, it’s a no for me, and I leave it to you guys.

Watson:

The big one here for me is Pavlos, that we’ve got a home side we cannot trust. We’ve got an away side who can get something. Now, it’s minus 105 for Osasuna, double chance. If I’ve got a side I cannot trust, and also, I don’t know who’s going to be playing, by the way, for Celta Vigo. You’ve got Osasuna double chance at minus 105. Osasuna draw or win at around plus money. That’ll do me. You see the dog even agrees. We love that.

Laguretos:

Yeah. Oh, you can hear the dogs. Yeah. They tend to bark when I’m on a show.

Watson:

No, he only barks when I give out a winning selection. I said Osasuna double chance, and the [crosstalk 00:18:34] he give it the old woof.

Laguretos:

He gave the seal of approval. So yeah, I can see that happening, because Celta Vigo, they’ve been bad at home. They have the second fewest points at home, they have two wins, six losses, and two draws. They give just one clean sheet, and they have conceded two plus goals in five matches so far, while Osasuna, even though they’re not very flashy sitting at the middle of the table, they have the fifth, most points on the road with four wins, three losses, and two draws. And whenever they score at least one goal, they win. Whenever they don’t score, they either draw or lose. So, with Celta Vigo being very, very unreliable on the defense, they have the seventh. I’m sorry they have, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. This there’s a lot of stuff here. A lot of stats they have, they might have the fifth best XGA at home with 1.14 per game, but they have the second worst home defense with 15 conceded goals. So, they concede goals against everyone. They’ve only kept a clean sheet against Granada. They’ve conceded multiple goals an awful lot of times, even though those were against Valencia, Socieded, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid, which are good, big teams.

Laguretos:

I think that Osasuna, they have the chance to grab something from this match, and as I said earlier, whenever they score on the road, they win. Whenever they don’t score, they either draw or lose. And that goes even for their cup matches. So yeah, again, this is a weird match to predict, as that’s the same story with whenever Celta Vigo play. For example, when Iago Aspas is out, we just fade them. When he is in, maybe you can take them, but still, they have been very inconsistent decision. Maybe they were on a solid run in late November and December, but now they start the new season with a couple of losses. One of them was a bad loss to Baleares in the Cope del Rey. So, I’m not trusting the Celta side. Maybe they can win, but I just don’t like it.

Laguretos:

Osasuna, they’ve been quite solid on the road, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they grabbed a point here. So yeah, I’m clueless in this match, but…

Watson:

Yeah, it’s a dog or nothing. I think it’s your wayside getting something, or you just stay away, and remember, staying away is always a sensible idea. I’d just like to have another look at these numbers though, just to see what the goal margin is, because I’m looking down team total, see, it’s minus 190 for the opposition to score. So, that tells me straight away that I’m going to get a goal out of Osasuna, but it could be a one-one. One-one still goes to my double chance Osasuna at minus 105. I’ve got to tell you though, it was minus 115 yesterday. So, they are giving you a better price. They are trying to get it, well, I never look at gift horse in the mouth. I’ve taken minus 105 double chance for the visitors. So, the official picks, please, you’ll see that I’m more than happy to go against this home side. Osasun, double chance at minus 105.

Watson:

The biggest game we’re going to be seeing this week is the next one. And this is why we’ve got Paco on. Paco is Valencia through and through. It is Valencia versus Sevilla. Valencia at plus 225, money line, plus 135, under over is at two. That’s because Sevilla are involved and Valencia are not scoring many goals, especially at home. The draw’s at plus 220. Paco, Valencia not to score in this game is plus 175. I’m not sure it’s Valencia not to score, it’s whether severe are going to concede.

Polit:

Yeah. I believe that this is going to be a very close game. I don’t expect an incredible thrashing of either team going either way, but Valencia scoring at home, it’s like very reliable most of the season, even though the last game against Espanyol saw that opposite team turning the tables around and winning two-one on the road, Valencia always score. And most of the time, they do it first in these games at home. But, the way Valencia have been playing lately, they were able to go on to the next round in Copa del Rey yesterday against a third division side. But they did in a no fancy way, like nothing fancy, one-nil win against Atletico Baleares. Last week, they lost against Real Madrid, the week before they lost against Espanyol. So, the streak hasn’t been great, and especially the way they play hasn’t been that great.

Polit:

Whereas for Sevilla, I believe they’re going to come to this game and get to this game with the desire-

Watson:

Fire in their belly?

Polit:

Yeah. Desire to prove themselves after what happened this weekend, after losing the Sevillan derby against the Betis. They have to win if they want to keep the pace in the top of the standings, because remember that they are second at this point. And even though they didn’t play great against Betis, at the end of the day, Sevilla are only five points away from Real Madrid with one game-

Watson:

Was that that a Cope del Rey game against Betis, though?

Polit:

Yes, obviously yes. Yes, no, [crosstalk 00:23:51]-

Watson:

[crosstalk 00:23:51] the biggest heated derby, maybe even more so than El Classico.

Polit:

Yeah. At this point in the competition in Spain, I believe the Sevilla derby is much more heated up than any El Classico or any derby in Valencia or in any other city. So, at the end of the day, Sevilla are the favorites because of their standings, because of the deepness of the squad. They have many players that can be members of the starting lineup, and even though they had rotations last weekend and they had only three days to prepare the game, I think they are better equipped to these kinds of games. So in this one, I’m going to go against my own, you could say my own desire, because I always love Valencia doing well at home and away, and I think that Sevilla are the favorites, and that’s why I went for the Sevilla money line.

Watson:

Okay. And if I asked you to give me a correct score, would you go for like two-nil, two-one?

Polit:

Two-one, Sevilla win. Three-two, Sevilla win. Always a very close one, but Valencia scoring and Sevilla at the end of the day winning the game.

Watson:

Don’t like that Paco, don’t like that. Pavlos, give me some numbers Valencia not to score, because that plus 175 is way too big, even though I went for Valencia not to score against Real Madrid, and they ended up getting the consolation. By the way, there’s no handicaps here, neither, so it’s just straight plus 225 for the home side, and plus 135, which looks generous, on the visitors.

Laguretos:

Yeah. I mean, if you just look at Sevilla’s numbers, you can definitely see that there’s going to be some kind of under in this match, and possibly Valencia not to score because Sevilla, they have the fourth best XGA allowing just 1.22 per game, they have the best defense in the entire league with just 13 conceded goals. They have the best XGA on the road with just 1.12 per game, the best away defense with five conceded, they have the second best away record with five wins, two losses, and three draws. Nine of those 10 matches produced under two and a half goals, with an average of just 1.4 goals per match. Sevilla, they won each of their last five matches against Valencia, but four of those mats were in Sevilla. They did beat them by a slim one-nil in this venue-

Watson:

We like that, Pavlos, we like that.

Laguretos:

Yeah, I do. I do like that. Yeah. It was a late goal, as well. So in the last months here, they went by one-nil, and it was also a late match, but that was the first win in Valencia since 2012. They had six losses and three draws. And last but not least, four of the last five matches between the two sides in this venue had under two and a half goals, and the combination of both teams were playing Copa del Rey matches over the weekend, and they’re going to play two or three days after that. And then they have two, three days to prepare for their next match next weekend, so I do believe that this is going to be a low scoring match. I’m not sure about the status of Soler, who has been influential for this Valencia side this season. He’s the top scorer with seven goals, and one of the main facilitators. So, I’m not so sure if he’s going to be out. I think he’s going to be out with-

Watson:

Well, Pavlos, ask Paco. Paco knows the ins and outs of everything Team Valencia.

Laguretos:

Do you know about Soler and Cillessen? Because if Cillessen is out, it’s going to be tough.

Polit:

Cillessen should be ready for the game, because he was affected last week with the pandemic, with COVID. Whereas for Soler, he had some physical pain last week. That’s why he didn’t play the game against Atletico Baleares. He was training today at a different rhythm, a different pace of the rest of the squad. Tomorrow, we should know if he’s ready for the game.

Watson:

Maybe tomorrow comes a little bit too early for him Pavlos, and maybe we’ll see him at the weekend, but also on the Sevilla side, looking for positives. Listen, I’ve not gone for Sevilla to win here, but I know that Paco has. Koundé back, as well.

Polit:

Yeah, Koundé’s back, and also Dmitrović, the goalkeeper, that’s two players that they recovered from one half of the Betis game to the second one, because one was played in Saturday, and the rest of the match was played on Sunday.

Watson:

So Pavlos, more strength for the Sevilla clean sheet.

Laguretos:

Yeah. But the only thing that worries me about the Sevilla clean sheet is the fact that their starting goalkeeper, Bounou, is in the Africa Cup of Nations, and his backups are just not that good. The guy that they used against Betis in the Cup match is just a really inexperienced guy. I think he’s just 21 years old. And so far in the season, he’s played seven matches for the Sevilla B side, and he’s grabbed four yellowcards in seven matches, which I don’t know if it’s a warning sign, and the other guy, Dmitrović from Sevilla, who could possibly start, is just not very good. He was their starting goalkeeper when Sevilla conceded three goals against Levante not too long ago. And that’s actually the only thing that worries me, but the goalkeeper isn’t the only one in the defense. There’s four more people there, possibly five. So yeah, I do believe that this is going to be a very low scoring match.

Laguretos:

I initially had the under, two and a half goals here at not so very good odds. The odds dropped even lower. That’s why I’m taking the under, two. As you say, Flash, this kind of looks like a free hit. I mean, I don’t see more than two goals in that match. I would like to see just one goal or no goals, but maybe a one-nil win for Sevilla is good for all of us.

Watson:

Yeah, it certainly is. I’ve got them at plus 175. Ashley, who’s obviously a big supporter of us, has gone with Sevilla draw double chance, and under three goals at minus 120. I don’t think we see four, and it’s just obviously not having Valencia get that win. Now, Valencia, a very, very tough side, and if they smell a little bit of weakness or they’re not concentrating, ’cause remember this is midweek card. Midweek games are completely different under the lights than you’d normally find on a Saturday or Sunday, so there will be some wonky scores. Let’s just hope this is not one. Valencia nil, Sevilla one will suit everyone right across the board.

Watson:

Let’s go to our fifth and final game, because I spent more time on this game and come up with nothing. It was Getafe versus Granada. It’s Getafe at plus 110, Granada plus 300. It’s under/over two goals. So again, we’re not looking at a goalfest, but the draw is close to 200. It’s plus 215. Paco, Getafe have been showing more than green shoots of recovery. Granada been doing better at home, and they’re keeping, I like the spirit of the visitors. And that’s why I think these two will cancel each other out.

Polit:

Yeah. Two teams that faced trouble at the beginning of the season. They were actually more or less in the same status. Whereas Granada were able to pull off a couple of late wins, and were able to get out of the relegation places. Getafe had to sack Mitchell back in the day, and under Quique Sanchez Flores, former Watford manager, and he was back in the day in Getafe Silence. Well, in this second stint, third stint by the way, he was able to perform the miracle. They are one of the greatest sides since he was put in charge. I believe they have fourth or fifth in the ranking in La Liga since he took over, and that’s why he was able to get out from the relegation spots.

Polit:

They are two very similar sides, even though Granada’s plays style should be a bit more offensive, but again, they’re playing away from home. That means they’re going to be more conservative, Quique is always a fan of solid defense, quick counters, quick breaks. And eventually, they’re going to clash most in the midfield, and that’s why I don’t see many chances in this game, low score. I actually went for the nil-nil at half time, because I believe that both sides are, draw at half time, sorry, because I don’t think there are going to be many, many chances in this game.

Watson:

What about, listen, let’s get the numbers up though, Pavlos, ’cause I think I saw plus 155, no, plus 125 for Granada not to score. I mean, Granada is just going to go there and maybe, if they do score, it’s going to probably be late on. So, I mean, do you see this being like a home win to nil?

Laguretos:

Yeah. This could be. Getafe, even though they’re not very flashy, they actually have some pretty good numbers, especially on the defense. Their offense is not that good. They have the fifth worst XG with 1.07 per game. The worst offense with 13 goals, fifth worst XG at home with 1.15. And the fifth worst home offense with 10 goals. But they have the fourth best defense with 21 conceded goals. They have the fourth best home defense with nine conceded goals, and Granada’s numbers on the offense haven’t been all that great. They have the fourth worst XG with 1.07, third worst offense on the road with just eight goals. Their defense is not that good. They have the worst XGA with 1.78 per game, the sixth worst defense with 27 conceded goals. On the road, Granada have the second worst XGA with 1.86, but they do have the fourth best away difference with 12 conceded goals.

Laguretos:

So, they do allow a lot of chances, but they don’t concede a ton of goals. I mean, 12 goals conceded in 10 games is not great, not worse, but not very bad. But what really caught my eye is the fact that Getafe, they’ve been quite great at home lately. They have four wins and one draw at home. They have kept four clean sheets, the beat Real Madrid, they beat Osasuna, they had a goalless draw against Bilbao, they beat Cadiz, they beat Espanyol, they’ve only conceded one goal, and their halftime numbers have been impressive. They have four wins, six draws, and no losses at halftime at home. They’ve five goals and have conceded just one in 10 matches. In ten first halves, they have scored five goals, and they have conceded just one. And they also scored a first half goal in the reverse fixture at Granada.

Laguretos:

While Granada’s numbers have been terrible in first halves, they have conceded the third most first half goals with 14 so far. They conceded the fourth most first half goals on the road, with eight. They just can’t keep clean sheets at the first halves. They conceded three first half goals against [inaudible 00:34:33], one against Osasuna, two against Espanyol, one against Bilbao, one against Cadiz. And even recently at home, they conceded first half goals against Atletico Madrid, Mallorca, two against Real Madrid. So, Getafe, they have been doing a great job lately, but it’s mainly due to their defense. But you know, when you pair that up with Granada’s bad defense, especially with Getafe sitting dangerously close to this relegation zone, I think they’ll go out in the first half, possibly try to score an early goal, and maybe sit on that result. So, that’s why I took the plus money on Getafe to score over 0.5-

Watson:

Just to score in the first half, huh?

Laguretos:

Yeah. Just score in the first half. I didn’t care what happens in the rest of the match.

Watson:

Okay. Has anyone got a price in the chat? Remember, this is your show, as well. So please, I know that there’s plenty of you that are giving plenty advice and plenty of reason to for your bet online. But what about Getafe draw no bet? I could put that in a parlay with Betis at minus 200. Okay. We’ll have a little look at the official picks, and while we’re doing that, if someone can find me Getafe draw no bet in this game, I don’t see them getting beaten, so basically it’s money back if we get the draw, because I see Betis winning at minus 200. Okay. It’s Getafe first half team total, five at plus 125. We’ve got the draw at half time at minus 110. Looks like one-one will suit both parties. I’ll look up all of the official picks. And while we’re doing that, I still want that price for Getafe draw no bet, please, to see if it’s worth either going into the parlay, and let me take you back to the start of the show when I asked you to subscribe and get us closer to 4,000. That’s our magic number. That’s been my target all the way through December and January, to get us up there. Dizzy, dizzy Heights, but we are on our way, and that’s all thanks to you supporting us.

Watson:

But more importantly at the moment is to ring the bell. Ring the bell means you’ll never miss any content again, which also means that you will know all about the Australian Open. We’ve got the NFL going on. We’ve got every single sport covered. I’m still looking. Getafe, draw no bet by the way is minus 200. So, minus 200 equals 150. That means that would be 225. So, plus 125 parlay. Are we happy with that? Betis to win and Getafe draw no bet, gentlemen?

Polit:

Yeah.

Laguretos:

Yeah.

Polit:

Make it yes, definitely.

Watson:

Okay. So, we are doing that parlay, ’cause it’s a plus 125. It is Betis to win and Getafe at draw no bet. So, basically we’ll win 0.5 of a unit if it becomes a draw but Betis wins. So, the parlay will be Betis straight money line, and Getafe at draw no bet, both around the minus 200.

Watson:

Paco, it’s great to see you, mate. Keep up all the hard work. Look forward to seeing you again very soon. I know we’ve got Roman back on Thursday. Pavlos, great work, mate. Thanks for all of them stats, numbers, and finding the value. And now you’re going to have to go and feed that dog, because I hear that when dogs bark, they normally want feeding. Okay. For everyone in the chat, for everyone at BetUS, may all your bets be winners. We look forward to seeing you on Thursday when we’re back to full cards on all fronts. It’s the Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, then on Friday, it’ll be Bundasliga. And don’t forget, we’ve got the Australian Open video for you to watch. One with the futures and one with the picks and predictions. You take care.

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