X
Skip to content

La Liga Show

Announcer:

Last Monday, we welcomed back our La Liga guys from the winter break, and today we’re back again with another La Liga show. Real Madrid won the Spanish Super Cup in Saudi Arabia last weekend, defeating Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao. They’ve returned to Spain to continue their championship fight. Madrid only has a five point lead over Sevilla, and now they must beat Elche on Sunday. The greatest teams in La Liga have returned from the Middle East to start the domestic season, and there are some huge games ahead. Our soccer guys are about to take a deeper dive into those with their La Liga matchday 22 picks.

Watson:

Welcome to BetUS, I’m Flash and it’s La Liga, it’s matchday 22. It’s the home of the parlay. The parlay has just gone in courtesy of Getafe after Betis absolutely steamrolled through the early part of the week. So, we’re the home of the winning parlay, just like Serie A was this week with plus 433. We are America’s favorite sportsbook, so please, we invite you to subscribe and get us closer to 4,000 subscribers on the BetUS soccer channel. Also, there’s plenty other sports on the BetUS TV channels. So, you’ve got your horse racing, your golf, your tennis, and all of your sports over there as well.

Watson:

More importantly at the moment is to ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you never miss any content again, and with so many things coming up, you must make sure that you ring that bell. We’ve got Australian open next Friday, the men’s and the women’s finals will be covered with myself with [inaudible 00:01:38] and with [inaudible 00:01:39], really looking forward to that. We just hope that some of the futures, because we’ve got a futures show, and we got a picks and predictions show. Let’s hope that one of our selections or two of our sections meet in the final.

Watson:

We are liking La Liga this year, and Pavlos winning week, and we’ve got Roman back, which is a great thing, because Paco was spending all Roman’s winnings. Roman as you know, from La Liga lowdown, you are my favorite of La Liga Lowdown. Did you enjoy, and did you miss us?

De Arquer:

I did miss you guys, and Flash, you’re also my favorite from BetUS, so…

Watson:

Oh, thank you.

De Arquer:

Compliment to you.

Watson:

The only one.

De Arquer:

And of course, of course I missed you guys. It’s always fun to do this show to get those picks and share them with our audience, and let’s see if we can find some interesting ones for this matchday, which I think looks pretty, pretty good.

Watson:

It does. And we’re all excited to see the new Barcelona, even though it’s two-thirds of the away through the season, it looks like we may see a new Barcelona, and they take on Alaves this week. Pavlos, a winning week for you. And to be fair, I was only jesting about Paco because he did come up with a two and one record this week.

Laguretos:

Yeah, it’s been doing great. I told you guys, 2022 is going to be the season where I turn it around. 2021 was just a bit rough for my predictions, but 2022 is looking bright. I think I’ve cut that down to, I think I’m almost at even money right now. So yeah, I’m looking forward to going on the plus side this week and I’m really excited to talk these matchups with you guys.

Watson:

Yeah. As a manager, I look at you as a young leg with potential.

Laguretos:

Thank you. Thank you.

Watson:

Yeah. He’s not as old as he looks. He takes that beard off, he gets asked for his ID when he tries to buy a can of beer. It’s unbelievable. Okay. Right then lads, we’ve got six games to go through there. Six games here with plenty, plenty value, which is the way we like it. Get yourselves in the chat. Any questions, any leans, any bankers, then make sure you share it, because you are our third guest. Let’s kick off with this first game because there’s no hotter side in La Liga at the moment. Espanyol versus Real Betis. Espanyol plus 225, Betis. Lots say just don’t complicate it. Plus 130. Cannot believe the goal line is set at two and a half, with the over at minus 120 being the favorite. The draw is at plus 230. Roman, I’m coming to you first. Betis absolutely on fire, plus 100 to score twice.

De Arquer:

Yeah. And it’s surprising to see so much value with Betis that’s been doing fantastic lately. As we’ve been saying before in previous shows, they do have some slumps sometimes, but then they get into those really good streaks and can’t stop winning. We saw it against Sevilla where they got a very, very important win in the Copa del Rey, despite it being a postpone and played later with no people in the stands. But then again, they showed that form against Alaves, thrashing them easy game. In the first half, they basically liquidated the match. It was done and over and dusted. And that’s why I think Betis and Espanyol are two teams that are going to give us a good show, I’d say, because Espanyol at home are really good. We’ve seen their records. Away, they’re awful, but all the points come at home, all the important wins and draws, et cetera.

De Arquer:

So, I do think it’s a match where we could see goals, where we could see even both teams scoring, because I think both teams are in a good or decent streak, at least, Erre de Te, he’s scoring goals for his Espanyol, Jorge Iglesisas scored the other day, so is [inaudible 00:05:01], I mean, it looks like it’s going to be an interesting game. So, I think we should look at those stats in terms of goals for both sides.

Watson:

Yeah. I see both teams scoring, and I see over two and a half, but where because Betis are involved, I only have to go with the over two and a half, Pavlos, because the wayside could score free on their own.

Laguretos:

Yeah, that’s true. But, the way I look at this is there’s definitely going to be both them score here. The only fact that worries me just a little bit is the fact that six of the last seven matches between two sides had both teams to score, which bodes well for our picks. But five of those were draws, and four of the last five matches in this venue had both teams to score, and three of those also had over two and a half goals. So, it’s logical to see a lot of goals here, but in the fear of a one-one draw, I’m just simply going to stick with the both teams to score. But yeah, judging by the numbers, this looks like a match where there’s going to be goals. I think this match starts at one-one. We might possibly see that scoreline in the first half.

Laguretos:

But when you look at the numbers, especially for Espanyol, they’ve been quite interesting. They do have the fourth worth XGA with 1.59. That means that they allow a lot of shots, but they have the seventh best defense with 26 conceded goals. At home, the numbers are pretty similar. They have the third worst XGA at home, allowing 1.5 goals per match, but they have the fourth best home difference with nine conceded.

Laguretos:

They’ve been surprisingly good at home. They have six wins, two losses, and two draws. They’ve scored in nine of their ten home matches, and they give just five clean sheets. And they’ve grabbed the fourth most points at home, which is quite surprising.

Laguretos:

And when you look at Betis, the numbers have been increasing steadily over the season. They now have the second best XGA, second best offense, second best XGA on the road, fourth best away offense. Their defense is not that good. They have the tenth worst XGA with 1.39 allowed. They do have the sixth best defense with 24 conceded, the fifth best away defense with 12 conceded, the third best away record with five wins, three losses, and two draws. They’ve scored in eight of their ten away matches. They kept just three clean sheets in the process.

Laguretos:

So, when you look at all that stuff, I think this much is assured both teams to score. And if there’s another goal in there, I’d love it. I don’t know if Betis score it, if Espanyol score it, but as for me, again, in the fear of a one-one draw, I’m just going to stick with the both teams to score here.

Watson:

Okay. Roman, if I said to you which one does get the winner, or listen to me, we can’t rule out the two-two neither, because Espanyol plus 165 to score two, Real Betis plus 100 to score two. So, it’s almost like a free hit. And if they both hit two, which we could see, because obviously we’ve got a home side going against a form side, Roman.

De Arquer:

Yeah. I hope all those go in, because I want for both teams to score and over 2.5, because I do think as Pavlos was explaining now, it’s going to be maybe not a goal fest, but we’re going to see quite a few goals, or at least we should. And that’s why it’s hard to pick which team is going to win, because Betis is true, they’re in great form as you said, but Espanyol at home are really strong. So I mean, taking into account a draw is very likely, just go for the goals and don’t complicate it, as you would say.

Watson:

Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks of the first game, Espanyol versus Real Betis, and we’ve all got an opinion, and it all revolves around goals. Both teams to score minus 150, conservative over two and a half, minus 120 is not complicating it, and the greed is both teams to score and over two and a half at plus 110. But listen, there’s a very, very good chance that all three of us hit, and all three about different bets. So, that means three different units will be going onto the winning total. So before we go to the second game… Oh no, sorry. There is no the record, so we will go to the second game, and this is my banker, by the way.

Watson:

I’m going to come to you first, Pavlos, because it’s Villarreal versus Mallorca. Villarreal have been absolutely flying since their early season stutter, since they got the Champions League out the way, they have been probably one of the top two or three sides in the whole of La Liga, bar none. And they’re minus 245, but minus one at minus 145. By the way, that was minus 135 yesterday, but Mallorca plus 700, forget it. Draw plus 370, under/over two goals at minus 120 I think will definitely suck a few in.

Laguretos:

Yeah, this looks like a lot of goals. But one thing that worries me a little bit is the fact that Villarreal, they’re coming off a loss at Elche in which they weren’t very good. I think they were mediocre at best first half. They didn’t even have a shot on target, not even one goal attempt. Whatever they did, they did in the second half. But they conceded the only goal of the match at the 78th minute, and they are now winless in their last three, and they also dropped out of the Copa del Rey in that span. So, now they return home, and this is a good chance for them to win, especially against the Mallorca side that haven’t been very good, especially on the road. They have the second worst away defense with 22 conceded goals. They have the fifth worst XGA on the road with 1.74. And you know Villarreal, they have one of the best XGA numbers out there, especially when they play at home. They have the fourth best XGA overall with 1.63 per game, third best offense with 33 goals. At home, they have the fourth best XGA with 1.9 per game, best home offense with 26 goals. I mean, that spells trouble for Mallorca, especially for their defense.

Laguretos:

Villarreal, they are unbeaten in their last four home matches. They have three wins and a draw. They scored two plus goals in all four, a total of 14 goals, which bodes well for our bets today, I guess. Mallorca, they have two wins, six losses, and two draws on the road. They’ve kept just one clean sheet. They have conceded two plus goals in six of those 10 matches. They did score in seven of their 10 away matches. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they got on the score sheet here, but yeah, Villarreal, they’ve been great historically as hosts against Mallorca. They are unbeaten in their last nine matches against Mallorca. Dating back to 2005, they have seven wins and two draws.

Laguretos:

And Mallorca, they actually held Villarreal to a goalless draw earlier in the season. And I think that Villarreal should have won that match. They had two thirds of the ball possession, they had more goal attempts, they were just a better team, but I think that was back when Villarreal were missing Gerard Moreno, and they are just a totally different side when Moreno is out. And now Moreno is in, and even though Villarreal still have a lot of players in the AFCON, they’re missing like Aurier, Chukwueze, and Mandi, but still, I think this is a match where Villarreal will get back on track. I don’t see anything other than a win for them, and I think this is going to come with a lot of goals. So, I’m being a little careful here, and I’m taking the Villarreal to win and over one and a half goals.

Watson:

Yeah. I mean, listen, Villarreal win for me. This is my banker. I’m happy to go with the minus one around, well, I thought it was going to be around minus 135, it’s now minus 145, but Roman, over two, minus 120’s got to be a free hit. I mean, I’ve got to be adding that. And the other one I wanted to say is do Mallorca score? Because if they don’t score, it’s minus 110.

De Arquer:

Yeah. I like the over two, honestly more, because I do think Villarreal are going to win, but I don’t know by how many, because it’s true that they got that poor game against Elche the other day, they’re kind of missing out some players as Pavlos pointed out from the Copa Africa. He also mentioned Boulaye Dia, who’s been doing really good lately, and they have suspended Étienne Capoue and also [inaudible 00:12:49], all these are doubtful. So I mean, they’re going through a bit of a little trouble there, Villarreal, that’s why I’m a bit worried in terms of the 11 players they’re going to put on the field to play, but I still do think they’re going to manage to win against Mallorca, which is just sliding down the standings. And I think they could potentially score, because I mean, they have some decent players in attack, like [inaudible 00:13:09], Kubo, Fer Niño, who’s sold by Villarreal to Mallorca. So I mean, there is enough quality and attack to score and take into account that Villarreal do have quite a lot of players unavailable or in doubt. I do think that they might just score. So, rather than going for moneyline or anything like that, I think maybe over two would be in my case, the more reasonable bet here.

Watson:

Yeah. Probably worst case scenario is we’re going to get a two and a push. I’m going to add, I’m adding the over two at minus 120. My record is okay, I’ve got units to burn. Obviously I burn free midweek. And if you’d ask me, I’ve got the same selections every single time. Okay. Official picks, because again, we’re all involved in this game. It’s Villarreal and over 1.5, at minus 135. My banker is Villarreal minus one at minus 145. I’ve got this down as been a free one game. And Roman is more than happy with over two goals at minus 120. Am I adding that to your record, by the way, Roman?

De Arquer:

It is very tempting. Go on. Add it.

Watson:

Yeah, well I’m adding it to mine. So, I mean it’s either yours or mine. I don’t mind. But again, we definitely see goals and we see Villarreal winning. Let’s move on to the next game, because this side cost me midweek, and it costs a lot of sides, the home side as well, because it’s Sevilla versus Celta. Sevilla minus 130, looks like a don’t complicate it price. Celta at plus 395. The draw is at plus 255. Under/over two. Again, I can only see the home win, Roman. Sevilla versus Celta. I know Celta come off of a cruising victory in midweek, but now, they’re going up a completely different animal.

De Arquer:

Yeah, it’s true that Celta de Vigo did very well in their previous game against Osasuna. They got a comfortable win. And I mean, in this last stage La Liga so far they’ve played, they’ve been doing quite well. They’ve improved in terms of how they started, which were they weren’t looking good, and we were saying that the quality should be capable of doing so much more with the players they have. And in this case, of course, they’re going to face Sevilla, which are very tough side.

De Arquer:

Although this Sevilla is sort of unpredictable of late. They didn’t manage that Copa del Rey win against Betis, which I thought they were the favorites for that game. And then in La Liga, they got a draw the other day against Valencia, and they have a few setbacks in terms of injuries, but of course, they’re playing at home. They still have a lot of quality players like Papu Gómez, Ocampos, Fernando, Koundé, et cetera. So, I mean, overall, they should be capable of winning, but I don’t expect to be a very large win by Sevilla. I think it might be that kind of one-nil, two-one, very short score line in this case. And overall I think Sevilla are definitely the favorites.

Watson:

Okay. Pavlos, your numbers are telling us home win, or both teams to score, but listen, it’s two at minus 140. They might as well just go minus 110 over two and a half.

Laguretos:

Yeah. The over two seems like I free hit, as you like to say. I do see at least two goals in that match. First of all, I’m going to say that Sevilla, they’ve started three different goalkeepers in the last three matches, which is quite weird, because as we said in Monday’s show, that they’re missing a couple of players in the AFCON, and one of them is their starting goalkeeper, and their defense hasn’t been all that good without him. So, and actually their XGA numbers, they have been sliding down. They now have the ninth worst XGA at home with 1.33 per game, but they do still have the third best home difference with just eight conceded goals. Of course, they have the best defense overall with 14 conceded goals, and the fourth best XGA overall with 1.22, but their numbers at home are slightly sliding lately.

Laguretos:

Of course, they didn’t have any easy matchups. They had to play against Villarreal, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, and Getafe, which was just an easy win. But yeah, those absences are really starting to catch up with them. They’re really starting to create some problems in the defense. And we saw that they conceded three goals in their last two matches, which is really weird for this Sevilla side.

Laguretos:

And there’s something really that happens when these two meet. Sevilla and Celta, 11 of the last 16 matches between the two sides had both teams to score. Seven of the last 10 matches and four of the last five had both to teams score. Sevilla as host, they’ve been great against Celta in recent years there, unbeaten in the last six. They have five wins and a draw, but each of the last six La Liga matches between the two sides in Sevilla, they had both teams to score. So, no matter the circumstances, no matter which team is having a good season or a bad season, Celta de Vigo, they always find a way to score in this venue. They’re one of the most consistent scores against Sevilla, and now Sevilla are still missing players in the AFCON. And I think they sold Diego Carlos, or I don’t know, there’s stuff happening in the defense. So, I believe this is a match that starts at one-one, maybe there’s more goals, I don’t know, but I like both teams to score here, and it’s plus money, as well.

Watson:

Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Both teams to score, plus 105 for Pavlos.

Laguretos:

Yeah.

Watson:

Myself and Roman normally enjoy going and getting involved in the Sevilla games. For some reason, we just find this one maybe a little bit too tricky, but list en, both teams to score also correlates with the goal line just set at two. Let’s move on to one of our favorite sides against one of the stingier sides. It’s Rayo Vallecano versus Athletic Club. Rayo Vallecano plus 190 at home with their record. It’s draw no bet at minus 115. Athletic Club is at plus 195. We will pick them at minus 105. But look at the draw. The draw is at plus 175, which is like 25 dots below the 200, the plus 200. The goal line is set at two. Roman, I’ve not seen a plus 175 for a draw in a long while.

De Arquer:

I mean, it’s a game which surprised me, because I think for example, the PK for Rayo Vallecano is pretty surprising taking into count that they’re playing at home and we know how Rayo Vallecano are a super strong team at home. They get lots of points, lots of wins there. They rarely lose any games. They’re one of the best teams in Europe at home at the moment, and halfway through the season, which is absolutely incredible. And also another plus for Rayo Vallecano is that Athletic Club are going to play tonight in the upcoming minutes against Barcelona in a Copa del Rey tie, and I think that might go to extra time. I think that’s going to really tire a lot of those Athletic Club players. And we know they don’t have a very deep bench in this situation. So, I think they’re going to suffer after that game against Barcelona. We’ll see what the outcome is, but on the weekend, Rayo Vallecano away is going to be really, really tough for them.

De Arquer:

And also I was checking a few curious things, and I saw that Falcao’s favorite team in La Liga is Athletic Club. He’s scored most goals against them from his times previously in Atletico Madrid, and he actually scored in the first game from this season and against Athletic Club. So it’s a team he’s really comfortable playing against, and he’s going to be available, and Rayo Vallecano cannot basically have their starting 11 except for Valentin, who’s suspended, but apart from that, they’ve got all the quality players that’ve been playing on the field of late, and I really do think they have a really good chance of winning, honestly.

Watson:

What sort of side are Barcelona going to put out against Athletic Club?

De Arquer:

Well, they’ve already shown the lineup and for example, players like Ansu Fati are going to rest because we all know that his injuries is very delicate and they’re going to go for the win, because you know, without the one side Ferran Torres, on the other, et cetera, so I think it’s going to be an interesting game. Barca’s going to try and have control of the ball, they’re going to try and look for the spaces also, because we know that Athletic Club likes to counter, likes to wait behind and go out, and if they lose the ball in the high pressure that Barca will probably implement, then I think there’s good chance there. But we’ll see, because Athletic Club always really grow and play really well against Barcelona, and they give their 100% in the Copa del Rey, they’re going to be super motivated. So, that’s why I think they’re going to really leave a lot of energy on the field against Barca tonight. And that’s a good chance for Rayo Vallecano in this case in the weekend-

Watson:

Yeah. That’s why I was asking. I was asking for the intensity of see how-

De Arquer:

It’s going to be intense, for sure.

Watson:

Yeah. I mean both teams to score maybe in that game, as well. Pavlos, Rayo versus Athletic Club. It looks like it maybe a both teams to score, and listen, everything’s telling us it’s a one-one draw.

Laguretos:

Yeah. First, I’m going to start off by saying I think this was my first ever pick for this show. The reverse fixture, I had Bilbao to win, and I got beat really hard because Rayo Vallecano, they won, they scored a last minute goal with Falcao, but yeah, Bilbao are actually the opposite of Sevilla in the sense that their numbers have been improving very much lately, especially offensively. They now have the sixth best XGA with 1.62 per game, but they still have the fourth worst offense with 20 goals. They have the best XGA on the road with 1.47, but they still have the second worst away offense with just seven goals. Their defense is great. Second best defense of the road with 17 conceded goals. Best away defense with five conceded goals. And when you pair the top with Rayo’s incredible home performances, Rayo, they have the best home defense with just four conceded goals. They have the best home record, eight wins, zero losses, two draws. Rayo have scored in nine of their 10 home matches, and they scored two plus goals in six of those. They’ve kept six clean sheets at home, but again we have to say that they have the easiest schedule, probably the easiest schedule in the entire La Liga in the first half of the season. So, just take these results with a grain of salt.

Laguretos:

And Bilbao on the road, they have the fewest away losses this season, they have the most away draws, and the second fewest wins. They have two wins, one loss, and eight draws. Just weird. It is just a weird record to have on the road, but nine of their 10 away matches had under two and a half goals with an average of just 1.1 goals per match. So, this is a tough match for me to predict. I’m just staying very much away from this match. It could go either way in terms of who wins, as well as goals, because the stats are kind of contradicting. But if anything, this doesn’t look like it will have an awful lot of goals. And as you guys said, Bilbao are probably going to spend a lot of energy trying to avoid the loss against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey tonight. So yeah, this might be where Rayo Vallecano extend their strong streak at home.

Watson:

I’m looking forward to watching that game as it goes. So, let’s see, because that’s always nice to see how a team reacts in the last 25 minutes. Nine have got another big game actually on the road at the weekend. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Rayo Vallecano versus Athletic Club. It’s Rayo draw no bet at minus 115, myself and Pavlos are leaving it alone, because the draw at plus 175, need I say more? Let’s move on to game number five, because this one for me is a little bit… I cannot believe that I’m getting this type of price for Real Sociedad versus Getafe.

Watson:

Okay. Real Sociedad, minus one at plus 130. It’s a free hit if you think they’re going to win the game. Getafe fresh off of winning four-two at home in midweek. And remember, that was the second leg of our winning parlay. Getafe are at plus 600, and minus 150 just to get beaten by one. Draw is at plus 245. Pavlos, under or over two goals again, when I can see Sociedad and Getafe, both teams scoring and over.

Laguretos:

Yeah, we talked about this before we went in the air. This is a very weird match to predict, as well, because Real Sociedad, they have the third best XGA with 1.22 per game, fourth best defense overall, fourth best XGA at home, second best home difference, just six goals allowed. And Getafe’s numbers have been actually, defensively, they’ve been pretty solid. Offensively, they’ve been just terrible. Before today’s match, they had the worst offense with 13 goals, and they scored four today. They had the worst away offense with just three goals, just three goals in 10 matches. That’s just bad. But they do have the fourth best overall defense with 21 conceded goals. They have the sixth best away difference with 21 conceded, and these are two very, very defensive sides that are clashing against one another. So, stats say that this is an under match, but when you look at the history between the two sides, seven of the last 10 matches between the two sides had over two and a half goals. Each of the last six matches between the two sides in this venue had over two and a half goals, and five of those also had both teams to score, and there is a lot of two- one correct scores in there.

Laguretos:

So, when you look at history, this looks like a both teams to score and over two and a half. When you look at how these teams are doing this season, this looks like an under. So, I don’t know where to go this with this match. I’m just leaving it to you guys. But I’m just going to admit that I’m going to throw some beer money on the two-one correct score for Real Sociedad at plus 900. That’s just the only thing that I love.

Watson:

Beer money. But the thing is-

Laguretos:

Beer money.

Watson:

You drink plenty. That’s a lot of money for someone who drinks as much as you do. Roman, exactly, the evidence is behind you. You can’t hide it. Oh, Real Sociedad versus Getafe, I’ve got this as a golf in class, Real Sociedad minus one, plus 130, it’s a free hit from me. If I win by one game, one goal, I just push.

De Arquer:

I just think that the Getafe have kind of earned quite a lot of respect of late because in the last eight games, they’ve only actually lost one, and it was a one-nil against Sevilla, and so they’ve been getting really good results of late. The manager changed with Quique Sanchez Flores has really boosted this team. They look so much better. They smashed Granada just now recently four-two, and Granada is not doing too bad either, themselves, so Getafe are definitely on the upside. And also, they’ve brought in a couple new signings, one of them Borja Mayoral also just scored against Granada.

De Arquer:

And on the other hand, Real Sociedad, well, I mean, they also have improved. We have to say that, because they had a little slump a few months ago or so, and now they seem to be back on track. They were really good against Atletico Madrid, easy win against them in the Copa del Rey, we could say more easy, relatively comfortable, I think because Real Sociedad were the better side. Although, I am a bit worried in the fact that Mikel Merino, he’s heart and soul, I think, of that team in the midfield, and he’s going to be suspended. He’s not going to be available, and we’ll have to see whether Isak is going to play in the end, because he’s doubtful for this one, but overall at home, I do still think Real Sociedad are the favorites. They should get the win, although I don’t see many goals in this case. Usually at home, Real Sociedad get really tight wins, I’d say. But still, as I said, Getafe just kind of worry me a bit. They’re doing pretty good lately, so in my case, I will also stay away like Pavlos.

Watson:

Okay. Let’s have a look at the official picks. Because I really like this. Minus one, Sociedad, plus 130, it’s a free hit for me, you got a home side win. And if they don’t, then Getafe are definitely going to go on the opposite to a naughty step, because we’ve got to follow them scoring four, then they go to Sociedad and get something. They definitely want to be a team to follow over the coming weeks.

Watson:

Okay. The final game is going to be all about you, Roman, because it’s Alaves versus Barcelona. Alaves plus 475, Barcelona minus 185. But minus one is at minus 110, but your minus 165 for Barcelona to score twice. Under or over two and a half goals, and the draw, don’t even need to worry about the draw, it’s a plus 345. Barcelona win. How do you transfer that into winning value?

De Arquer:

Well, seeing the trajectory here of how both teams have been going, I think Barca are starting to improve under Xavi, I think we’re seeing a better version of them. I think the game against Real Madrid was an example where of course we lost in the end, but I think the team was quite decent. They show they have a lot of danger and attack, and they’ve recovered a lot of players, which is just so important for Barcelona, because we had so many setbacks with guys injured, with COVID, et cetera. And now it seems like little by little, we’re recovering most of these guys, and we’re only going to miss I think Gavi who’s suspended, Eric Garcia who’s injured, and [inaudible 00:29:45] Roberto, and Umtiti, who haven’t been very important either this season. We’ll have to see whether Memphis Depay will finally be back for this one, because he’s going to miss the Copa del Rey game against Athletic Club.

De Arquer:

And on the other hand, Alaves are another team that’s just sliding down the standings. They seemed quite decent at a certain point of the season, but now they’re just incapable of winning and getting good results. And honestly, it’s true that they’re playing at home. Joselu is their danger man up front. He can do some damage. So, we might even see both teams scoring. That’s a possibility. But overall, I think Barcelona need to get this win. It’s really important. They’re one point away from the Champions League at the moment, trying to chase down Atletico Madrid. So, Barca now just need to win games. They can’t afford to drop more points if they want to play Champions League next season. And that’s going to be crucial if they want to try and sign Haaland next season.

Watson:

Yeah, no doubt. No doubt. I’ve got this game as Alaves one, Barcelona three. Pavlos, Barcelona, this is where the stats and the IGs, XGs, and all the Gs, they don’t take into account that Barcelona look like they’re starting to turn a corner. They’ve got a fit squad, they’ve got talent, and remember some of these players might be playing to find new clubs.

Laguretos:

Yeah, exactly. Because I think Barcelona, I don’t know if they can score Haaland this summer, but there’s definitely going to be a lot of changes in that roster, whether many players come, or I think they’re going to bring in some younger players and push away all the older ones. But yeah, as far as numbers go, Alaves, I’m not going to mention every single metric, because there is a lot of bad metrics for Alaves. I mean, let’s say that they’re bottom five in pretty much every metric. XG, actual goals, XGA, goals conceded, they’re bottom five in every single metric. They have the fourth fewest points at home with three wins, five losses, and three draws. However, they’ve been quite solid, I guess, at home lately. They’ve only lost to Celta de Vigo in their last six home matches. They have two wins, one loss, and three draws. They did Bilbao and Sociedad to a couple of draws at home lately. They did score in seven of their 11 home matches, but scored multiple goals just once, which is just a sign of just a bad offense.

Laguretos:

And when you look at Barcelona, they are top three or top four, maybe top five in pretty much every metric. Again, goals, goals conceded, expected goals, you name it. But they’ve been mediocre at best on the road. They have two wins, two losses, and six draws. They have the second few wins, the second fewest losses, and the second most draws on the road. They have scored 12 goals, they have conceded 12 goals, and they have 12 points, which is quite funny to me, because I just like to have fun with numbers like that.

Laguretos:

So Barcelona, they’ve scored in seven of their 10 away matches and in each of their last six, but they have kept just two clean sheets on the road, so while the offense is picking up some slack, their defense has just been quite, again, I’m going to say mediocre at best on the road this season. And in the reverse fixture earlier in the season, they played for a one-one drawing in Barcelona, but I think Barcelona should have won that match. They had 79% ball possession, they had 16 goal attempts, while Alaves had only three. Four of the last five matches between the two sides had both teams to score. So, I don’t know, two of those were one-one draws, but in the other three, Barcelona scored four and five goals twice. I don’t know, this is a weird match for me. I just don’t like betting on Barcelona, sorry, Roman, this season-

De Arquer:

Fair enough.

Watson:

Maybe you will, maybe you will in a few weeks’ time if they start putting a few together.

De Arquer:

Just point out that Athletic Club already scored two minutes in. So-

Laguretos:

Oh, they did?

De Arquer:

I can understand.

Laguretos:

Oh, nice.

Watson:

That’s going to be a good game to watch. It will be a good game to watch. So anyway, let’s have a little look at the official picks. That’s our sixth and final game, and it’s Barca to win an under four and a half at plus 130. Wouldn’t put anyone off of Barcelona minus one is a free hit at minus 110, as well. Let’s put all of the official picks up there. You’ll see one of them is in yellow, which means that it is a banker. Then also, let’s take you back to the start of the show, and I encourage you and ask you to please subscribe and help us get closer to 4,000 subscribers. And obviously, we’ll kick on from there, but you must be ringing the bell, because ringing the bell means we’ll notify you. You’ll never miss any content again. And there’s plenty coming up, but also there’s a couple of weeks break. It’s international break next week, so we’ll have Bundasliga tomorrow, and then we’ll see you in two weeks’ time.

Watson:

So Pavlos and Roman and all the other teams apart from the premier league, because they’ll have FA Cup. If we look at these La Liga best bets, Villarreal at minus one at minus 145. Remember that that was minus 135, and we’re adding the over two and minus 120 in the Villarreal game. So, it is the Villarreal game, we’re going to go with two being at least a push in the Villarreal game, and it’s over two, minus 120, and I’m going to stick that on Roman’s account. Okay. So Pavlos, Roman, everyone else who supports us. From everyone at BetUS, may all your bets be winners, enjoy, and take care.

Show More

Related Tags

HLTV BLAST.tv