La Liga Picks Matchday 29 | La Liga Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel. I’m Flash, and this is LaLiga Show match date 29, and it’s one of the most special weekends in world football. It’s time for El Clasico, and the two sides are a lot more evenly matched than they were three months ago. So, the whole world will be looking to see if Barcelona are going to stamp a little bit of a marker down of, we will be with you next season. And who’s to say that these two are not going to win both European competitions? Real Madrid could lift the Champions League and Barcelona who are favorites to lift the Europa League. But first of all, we are America’s favorite sportsbook. So, I’d like to invite you to subscribe. Subscribe means that you’re going to get us closer to 5,000 subscribers, which will be absolutely massive for our first season of being your home of soccer odds content.

Flash:

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Flash:

Now, we’re going to have a little bit of a Q&A prior to the picks. We’ve got the records coming up, been a bit dodgy recently because the games and with Europe teams have been falling and not been as consistent as they were when we was having a great run. And also we were following teams that were actually flying. Pins got in their balloon. We’ve got to find new teams to follow for the run in. Now, I’ve got Pavlos, who is our numbers and stats man. He absolutely loves getting his nose down and dirty. And the other one is Roman and he is our LaLiga grand master. He’s a lot older than he actually looks, but anything LaLiga for teams, especially Barcelona, so that’s why he is smiling so much. He is our man, but first of all, Pavlos, it’s been a tricky old week, not just for Spanish sides, but for most sides in general. And now we’ve got a little bit of a break coming up. So, it’s almost like do your best work this weekend. And then you can have a rest.

Pavlos:

Yeah, exactly. Well, a lot of teams are going to have a lot of players involved in international duty, but yeah, this is a great chance for all the other teams and all the other players to rest, recover from injuries, COVID and whatnot. So, yeah, I believe that we’re going to have a lot more stable results after the international break. Of course, who knows what’s going to happen? There maybe new injuries, and new COVID issues. So, it’s just been a weird season overall, but we’re doing a great job up until possibly last week where we have this a couple of weird, actually a lot of weird results, a lot of unders, a lot of stuff that no matter how big you deep, you just can’t predict. Maybe just if you had a gut feeling or something, but yeah, I’m looking forward to this week. I think we got a couple of really great bets and I’m glad to talk them over with you guys.

Flash:

Yeah, listen, there’s a lot of good value out there, and there’s a lot of good matchups as well. And Roman, you are a man for matchups because at this stage of the season we’ve got teams that are just going to jack it in because they’re not going down. They’re not going to get any Europa League or Champions League places. And also squads are not long. So, if they get injuries to vital players, then we need to be fading them.

Roman:

Yeah, we have to be careful now because it’s going into a complicated moment of the season where as you say some teams aren’t going to perform as well, are going to struggle more, others less. We have to keep an eye out to see if there’s any other trends as we’ve been catching in previous months. The moment that those kind of trends have faded away for now, but I’m sure more are going to come up and we just have to keep an eye out and get on that train as soon as we see it.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a little look at the records because the records were showing really healthy. They were number one out of all of soccer shows, dropped back a little bit, but still healthy at 13.48 units of profit. I’ve been the main culprit as it goes. I think I’ve probably gone four and eight in my last 12 bets or maybe three and eight, and a push by note I was up at like 14 or 15 units. So, I’m main to blame. Pavlos is just head above the parapet looking for the value, LaLiga lowdown at four, was at seven. We’ll blame Paco because he’s not here. Parley still sitting healthy at 1.88. Remember, the Q&A will be before the official picks at the end. We’ve got six games. So, before we get to the official picks if you’ve got any questions, then make sure that you answer. Shy boys get nothing.

Flash:

First game Athletic Club versus Getafe. Athletic Club is at -135. A lot of people will be happy to go money line, don’t complicate it. Getafe been a bit in and out last couple of weeks up +475. The draw is always a runner when these two get together at +240, but I’m really surprised Roman that it’s under over two with basically over two being at -105.

Roman:

Yeah, it is quite surprising. I was pretty tempted to be honest with that bet because, I mean, I think at least two goals we will get. So, in any case, it would be a push, but it’s true that Getafe of late, as you mentioned, haven’t been as good as they were when that new manager boost started off. Getafe were just rocketing up the standings, but they haven’t gotten too far anymore because of course now they’re lacking a bit of those goals. They haven’t scored too many in the last few games. They’re struggling to get a goal when Unal was so on fire not so long ago. He was doing really well. They brought in Mayoral in the winter transfer market. He got a few goals as soon as he got there. Sandro was doing okay, but now suddenly they’re just struggling again.

Roman:

And Athletic Club we know are a strong team at home. They’re very intense. They’ve had some good performances of late. So, I think it will be an interesting game, and I honestly do expect to see at least a couple of goals in this one even though it’s two teams which are maybe known for closing down pretty well the back, but this season, I think they haven’t shined as much defensively and they’re actually maybe even been better in offensive task. So, I think we could see a couple of goals, at least.

Flash:

Roman, is it right for us to mention that it’s a Friday night game, so we are going to see and hear a really, really buoyant atmosphere?

Roman:

Yeah. That’s certainly a possibility, and especially when it’s at San Mames. I mean, that’s one of the stadiums where it’s always buoyant. There’s always, maybe not a full house, but almost. We know that the fans in San Mames are very intense. They like to support their team in the good and in the bad times. So definitely that’s going to be a favorable aspect for the home side.

Flash:

Yeah. I see this 2-1, 3-1, maybe even 3-0 Pavlos to the home side.

Pavlos:

Yeah, could possibly be a 3-0 because Getafe they haven’t… Even though they have their struggles overall, they struggle even further on the road. They have scored just seven goals on the road, and three of those, of course, they came in the 4-3 loss to Atletico Madrid. They failed to score in half of their matches this season. That’s the most in the league. They also failed to score in nine of their 14 away matches. Again, the most in the league. So, they’re just very, very poor on the road, and now they’re much against a Bilbao side that used to have very good defensive numbers, not so great offensive numbers in the first half of the season. But as we said, and also in previous shows, they switched something in their offense.

Pavlos:

Of course, that came in the cost of defense because we now see them scoring a lot goals. Their offense is still the seventh worst offense with just 32 goals, but they still have the seventh best home offense with 22 goals. So, they started scoring goals at home, but at the cost of defense because a couple of months ago, maybe even more, we were talking about Bilbao’s strong defensive numbers, XGA numbers and actual considered goals. And now they have the 10 worst XGA allowing 1.4 per game. They still have the fourth best defense with 27 allowed and the sixth best home defense with 14 allowed. So, very tough defensively and Getafe I’m not so sure if they score here. Maybe I’m tempted by Getafe not to score, but this is a match where I just don’t feel it’s very stable. So, I’m personally passing on everything, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bilbao scored a couple of goals against Getafe, maybe three of them, could be, could be.

Flash:

I think we might have our first parlay piece though. We do like a parlay in LaLiga. Athletic Club at -135. I’ve actually gone with the over two goals because I see Athletic Club winning a minimum of 2-0 by Getafe. They can score goals or they can cause a threat. And the one thing about Athletic Club is they over commit. I mean, they played against Levante and won the free one. All right, Levante scored in the 93rd minute as a consolation, but they had two or three great chances first half to actually get on the score sheet and take the lead. I wouldn’t be surprised here if Getafe do break away and get at least one. And then obviously I think the over two is a give me. I think there’s a free hit. I do believe that we see at least two, and I think Athletic Club do score two. So, the official picks, I think I’m on my own. I don’t know you. Pavlos, you’re getting involved in this game?

Pavlos:

No. [crosstalk 00:09:28]. I might have something else.

Flash:

Okay. Over two goals, -105. In the chat, they’re just like, “Athletic Club to win.” And also Danny says, “Getafe team total under,” so basically not to score, and that is at minus -120. I hope they score and I hope Athletic Club win, and it’s -135 for the potential parlay piece. Move on to the second game because I think there’s value here to be had because we’ve got a team at home who are desperate, and they’re at +100. That’s Alaves versus Granada, and it’s Alaves at +100, Granada on the road at +315. Certainly, not the team that you would see at home. The draw at +220. These two, there’s nothing really to choose from between them. That’s why the draw is so tight to that magical +200 number. But the over two and a half, you think you’re seeing three goals here. It’s at +125. Pavlos, do we see three goals? But I like the home side getting the better of it.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Well, traditionally these two, whenever they play, they produce a lot of goals. They’ve only played seven matches over the years. Six of those also had over two and a half goals and each of the last three matches in the past couple of years, so-

Flash:

Pavlos, why do you think we’re seeing +125 then?

Pavlos:

No idea. Literally, no idea. Possibly because these are very fairly weak offenses. Alaves do have the worst offense with 21 goals, the worst home offense with 10 goals while Granada, they have the fourth worst offense, the fourth worst away offense. So, possibly, the book makers are just seeing two very bad offenses, but what they might be missing is that they also have very bad defenses. I mean, Alaves, they have third worst defense, sixth worst home defense. And Granada, they have the fourth worst defense. So, they’re bottom four, bottom five in all defensive numbers.

Pavlos:

This is a match that is actually a relegation battle with Granada sitting just one point above the relegation zone, three points above Alaves. So this is going to be a fight to the death. So, yeah, I don’t think anyone’s going to sit back and try to get the maths because they just can’t. They just can’t keep clean sheets. I mean, if either team goes in front one goal, then the other team will certainly push for an equalizer and then they might concede another. So, yeah, there’s definitely going to be goals here. I’m kind of scared about the draw. That’s why I took an alternative approach to this match, but yeah, I just don’t see Granada winning. This shouldn’t be a low scoring match, and yeah, possibly both teams to score, something like that. But yeah, it looks like goals.

Flash:

Okay. [crosstalk 00:12:11].

Pavlos:

Granada to win.

Flash:

This is probably the biggest price on an over two and a half that I have actually seen. I can understand if it was like sort of an under three or something like that, but over two and a half goals is at +125. Roman, I think you’ve got to be with a home side or nothing. And when the home side’s at +100, I mean, even maybe a draw or no bet would give you something, but +100 for Alaves against Granada? Sign me up.

Roman:

Well, the record says that Granada actually has a really good record against Alaves. It’s a team they’ve done pretty well. And also in the seven times they’ve played together in LaLiga it’s never been a draw. It’s always been one side or the other winning the game, but usually it’s been in favor of Granada. And right now I kind of see Granada slightly better the other day against Elche. They had some really, really-

Flash:

But they’re +315.

Roman:

Yeah, it’s a great value, I think. Of course, you have to trust them. It’s two sides which are fighting for relegation, and honestly they aren’t reliable, but I have a hunch that Granada could get something out of this because, I mean, they look against Elche. They had some very, very good opportunities. If they just had a bit more precision I think they could have even got a good result out of the game, but it’s true that both sides at the moment, one of the things they are lacking is goals. I mean, they’re really struggling to score goals recently. And so, I don’t completely agree with Pavlos, even though it’s true that defensively they’re weak. So, maybe that could act as a counter effect. So in any case, being two sides, which are in a desperate situation. For me, it’s a bit too unpredictable one, and I’ve stayed away, but I don’t know. I think Granada could maybe get something out of this.

Flash:

Is it fair to say that these two sides in past seasons have been in a lot better form and that’s why the head to heads have showed so many goals. Listen, Granada were a force. They were playing in the Europa League last season. So, I’m just wondering if those numbers are a little bit distorted and that’s why they’re getting sucked in with the +125 of over two and a half. But the bigger one for me is Alaves. If they score twice, it’s at +130. Surely, if they score twice, they win the game. But again, I could see a 1-0, maybe 1-1. It’s a really, really tough game, but I’ve gone with the home side through desperation of the home side and in front of their home crowd and with Granada not pulling up any trees on the road.

Flash:

The official pick is Alaves money line for me at +100. Pavlos is sort of holding my hand, but he’s sort of behind me holding my hand because he’s gone with Alaves double chance and over one and a half at -120. He’s just got that little bit of insurance policy that if a bullet’s fired, I’m getting it, and he is using me as his shield. Okay, let’s move on. Let’s move on to this third game because it’s the biggest gift on LaLiga for me, this totally out form Rayo Vallecano have got big guns coming to town, and it’s their big guns coming to town or Atletico Madrid fresh off of their 1-0 win at Old Trafford in the Champions League midweek. Rayo Vallecano +300, should be plus 500 that. Atletico +100, fill your boots because this side are full of confidence and they’re scoring goals. Total under or over two? I think they’re not keeping many clean sheets. That’s why you’re getting -140 for the over two, but Atletico could score three on their own, but Roman, Atletico to score twice is +130. I like that, but when I’m getting Atletico on the road against a team that are not winning really home or away, +100 I’m in.

Roman:

Yeah, I’m in, too, Flash. I think it’s a pretty good value. Especially, taking into account that Atletico have really changed their form in the past few weeks. Remember, we were talking about them being such a poor side. Take into account the squad they had and the capacity or potential this team had, and it seemed like finally they’re fulfilling it. They’re doing really well in LaLiga, have a really good streak of wins at the moment, playing much better than they were before. And also that great game, those two legs against Manchester United qualifying for the next round is definitely also a big boost of confidence for them. They needed something like that, and that’s going to be very important for them. And Joao Felix, for example, he is shining of late. I mean, he’s gone from being a sub to a starter because, I mean, he’s scoring the goals and he is leading the team forward.

Roman:

And also it’ll be good for them that they have Correa nice and fresh for this game because he rested basically all of the second leg against United, so that’s another quality player who’s been fantastic and they can really make use of. So, honestly, it’s true that Rayo Vallecano got a good result against Sevilla, and maybe that was a bit unexpected, and the bookies might be given them less because of, better value because of that. But I still think that Rayo Vallecano got a bit lucky in a way. I mean, Sevilla should have gotten the win. They had the better squad. They were in the better conditions. Rayo were missing important players who will be back against Atletico, but still, I don’t think we’ll see too many goals, but I see Atletico snatching it in the end.

Flash:

Pavlos, when I said earlier about sides that are not going to be in the Champions League, Europa League, or go down. I was looking at Rayo Vallecano because they started the season off a little bit shaky, but then found their feet, were strong, and now they’ve gone a little bit the other way. And it’s almost like they’re either running out of gas because they think mentally the job is done. Atletico, they still need their points.

Pavlos:

Yeah, I think Rayo Vallecano, they’re probably safe this season. They’re sitting at the middle of the table, close to the bottom half, 32 points, eight points above the red zone with a match in hand. So, maybe they probably need a couple of wins. Maybe with 38 points you’re rather safe in this LaLiga. So, yeah, since they didn’t do well in the Copa del Rey, since they’re not challenging one of the top six spots to go to Europe next season, and there is a dip in form. I don’t know what’s going on there, but they’ve been terrible lately. They won’t just, I think one of their last nine LaLiga matches dating back to early December and winless in the last eight, including Copa del Rey with six losses and two draws. Their offense has dipped. They now have the fifth worst offense with 29 goals. Their defense has dipped.

Pavlos:

They still have the seven best defense with 33 goals, and the third best defense at home of just 10 conceded goals, but Atletico Madrid’s numbers have been really weird this season. They have the best away offense with 27 goals and the fifth worst away defense with 23 conceded goals. So, we were used to having them the other way around. They had a very good defense, but not so good offense. Now, this season, we see something better from them, something different actually. I’m not so sure if it’s better, but if it works, it works. So, yeah, on the road they’re coming off three consecutive wins. They beat Osasuna, Betis, and Manchester United. These are… Especially, Manchester United and Betis are very, very strong teams. Of course, they’re kind of in a slump themselves. So, just take these results with a grain of salt.

Pavlos:

As far as this match goes, I’m not so sure there’s going to be a lot of goals. Maybe Atletico could be a little bit tired or maybe distracted from their triumph at Manchester. I don’t think that Coach Simeone is going to allow them to be distracted because he’s a very, very good and very professional coach. Maybe they partied hard, but now it’s back to business. So, if they don’t win this one, Betis and Real Sociedad, and quite possibly Villarreal are trying to steal that fourth spot from them. So, they should be very, very careful moving on. So, I believe this is a match where they should probably win. I mean, all the numbers point to it. The trend points to it. But my only objection is if they’re going to have any extra tiredness from their match in Manchester and the all the trips, but yeah, this should be a fairly low scoring match.

Flash:

Yeah, but as you can see from the right hand side, the main reason is unbelievable value +100. I expect them to be minus money come kickoff. Now, have a little look. Sevilla play Sociedad. Real Madrid play Barcelona. This is a real opportunity because they know that two, maybe even all four of their main rivals are going to drop points. I mean, if the other two, both games finish in draws and they win, they’ve made up two points on every other team. So, for me, I cannot see anything other than an Atletico professional performance and a +100, who cares? 1-0 jog on. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. And by the way, we’re talking about Joao Felix. He looks as fresh as a daisy and he’s starting to grow into that man, still obviously looks like a young boy. Atletico money line, +100. A bit like yourself, Roman. No one will believe that you are 71.

Roman:

Impossible to believe it.

Flash:

[crosstalk 00:21:05] money line at +100. So, we’re going to go down. It was so close to being my absolute banker. Okay, let’s move on because this next game, very rarely do we see a game where it could end three all and it could end 0-0. Espanyol versus Mallorca. Espanyol at +110, Mallorca at +255. The under or over is at two and a half. It really is a flip at a coin. If it’s your day, you’re going to see a thrill, and if you’ve gone unders you want to see the 0-0. The draw is up +250. Surely, that is a runner. Pavlos, Espanyol versus Mallorca, flip the coin three times, and we still may not have a winner.

Pavlos:

Yeah, true. And the coin has been flipped already twice. The season in the Copa del Rey and the LaLiga and Mallorca won both times. So, I believe that Espanyol all stats and numbers apart I think they’re in for a revenge game, especially at home where they’ve been very, very solid this season. They have seven wins, three losses, and four draws. They’ve only lost two Betis and Elche since, I don’t know, September. They’re really, really great at home. Not so great defensively, but offensively, they just get the job done. They kept Sevilla to a draw. They kept Barcelona to a draw. They beat Real Sociedad, they kept Bilbao to a draw, they beat Real Madrid. So, Mallorca, of course they’re like a cornered beast. They’re now facing relegation just two point above the allegation zone. So, they might want to start getting some points sooner rather than later. But this is a match where I truly believe that Espanyol are not going to lose.

Pavlos:

I mean, they’ve been really, really stable lately. Of course, they’ve won just one of the last five matches against Getafe of all teams, but they’ve only lost two Villarreal in that span, and they kept Barcelona and Sevilla to draws. So, I believe that this a match, even though Espanyol, they’re not great defensively. They’re quite solid defensively. They have the seventh best offense in the LaLiga with 34 goals and the eighth best home offense. XG numbers looking great at home as well. Defense, not so much. They have the six worst difference, and we see a lot of these matches where they just fail to keep a clean seat. And Mallorca, depending on the day because there is a lot of goalless matches for Mallorca, but they can score. They can score, but the other team has to be a little bit naive at the back and Espanyol are naive at the back.

Pavlos:

So, I believe that this is a match where Mallorca could easily get in the score sheet, but I just don’t see them winning. I think that Espanyol are going to grab at least a point. Espanyol after all they’re sitting at the middle of the standings, 33 points, nine points ahead of the relegation zone. They’re fairly safe right now. Maybe again, a couple of points, maybe a couple of wins till the end of the season will get them saved. I don’t think they’re going to have relegation problems. So, yeah, all things considered I believe that Espanyol are not going to lose this match. This might go way over the total, but I do trust the home presence of Espanyol here. I do trust their offense. I don’t trust this Mallorca defense. Second worst defense in the league. Second worst defense on the road, just really bad defensively. So I believe that this is a match where Espanyol will not lose, and we see a couple of goals.

Flash:

Okay.

Pavlos:

At least a couple of goals.

Flash:

Well, I was writing down for Espanyol to score twice is a +120, keep a clean sheet. Mallorca a +170 not to score. Espanyol, they’re a little bit stronger than Mallorca, but is this Espanyol to be relied upon when there’s nothing really for them to play for?

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, Espanyol had higher hopes I think at the beginning of the season. They started off pretty well, and they’ve just been another of those teams that have lost a bit of that intensity and that quality along the games, and now they are struggling a bit more. Home games used to be defining for them. That’s where they’ve achieved most of their points as, as Pavlos has I mentioned. But now they’re not as strong maybe at home. And I think Mallorca do have a slight chance, but it’s hard to predict. As you said, it’s a bit of a flip of a coin. You don’t really know which way it’s going to go. Obviously, if you had to pick a side, I think Espanyol is a safer way to go. But for me, I do see a few goals here going in. I expect both teams to score at least one goal, and I think like 2-1 or 2-2. Something like that is a very likely a case scenario.

Flash:

Okay. Well, let’s have a little look at the official picks because I thought it might be the home side here. Mallorca they are one of those that you don’t really want to go and play them on the party island, but you would want to play them at home if you’re desperate for a performance because they’re not going to put up much of a fight if you get your heads in front. It’s just whether Espanyol get their heads in front. It’s Espanyol double chance and over 1.5 minus 1.25. Pavlos, you’ve gone digging this week. You have gone with a little bit of a safety valve, but also making sure that you still pick up a little bit of value if you get the right combination. So, it’s Espanyol not to get beat and over one and a half goals. So, a nice little 2-2 draw, or they win 2-1 and it’s up -1.25.

Flash:

Now, two of the bigger guns in LaLiga are going to meet, and Sevilla, who trusts Sevilla? Sevilla versus Real Sociedad. Sevilla are +110. Remember they travel to London for midweek in the Europa League. Sociedad, they’re struggling with injuries, but they’re at +300. The draw is at +220. The under or over is set at two, which does surprise me because both of these sides have very little respect for each other. So, they will play on the front foot. Sevilla at +120 to score twice. Sociedad, well, they’re just -170 to score once. Roman, Sevilla, over or under two because over two is at -130. It’s got to be over two goals, surely.

Roman:

Yeah, I think it should be. The only thing that worries me now is today Real Sociedad informed everyone that their captain, their best player in my opinion has been injured badly in his ACL and his knee. So, he is going to be out for the whole season, and I just think that’s just a massive blow for the whole team knowing this information, knowing that they’re not going to be able to count on one of their best or their best player to fight for those Champions League position. I’m sure they still have the quality, of course, to fight for that, but it’s going to be way tougher and Sevilla need a win badly. I mean, they have been disappointing of late in LaLiga too often, I think. And at some point they have to get back on track and it’s true that they have a really good record against Real Sociedad. Sevilla tend to get good results, and I think they should be capable of getting the win. I’m not going to go and bet on them this time because I mean, they have disappointed a lot lately as I mentioned, but I think they have the quality, and I do think we should see over two goals. I mean, both teams have enough firepower, but I’m worried about Real Sociedad with that really bad injury for the rest of the season.

Flash:

Okay. I mean, it is a game where both sides… Listen, it’s one of those you look back on Monday and go, “Yeah, I could see that happening.” I mean, Sociedad, they’re going to have their supporters, especially in double chance minus +130 because you cannot trust Sevilla. They are not actually on full cylinders, but remember they’ve got that trip to London as well. Pavlos, what are the numbers saying because these two, I mean, Sociedad have their peaks and troughs. Sevilla, they’ve not been blowing anyone away. So, that always means the away side got a chance.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Well, Sevilla, their offensive numbers have sort of dipped, but they’re still very good. Six best offense, 40 goals. Fourth best home offense with 28 goals. Their XG numbers are just dipping a little bit. They’re eighth overall and seventh at home. So, we used to see them just a bit higher over the season, but their defensive numbers are still up in general, but the problem is that at home, they’re now 10th in XGA at home allowing 1.23 per game, and mind you that this Sevilla side was always top three throughout the whole season in XGA at home. So, lately possibly because they’re starting to be more offensively since the January transfer window, they’re playing a bit more offensively, at least judging by the numbers. They create a lot of, more opportunities, but they also allow more opportunities, but they still have the best defense in the league, and the fourth best home defense with 11 conceded.

Pavlos:

And so, when you look at all the numbers, especially Real Sociedad, very bad offense, and when you pair that up with Sevilla’s defense, it looks like another. I mean, Real Sociedad, they have the fifth worst offense with 29 goals, but they’ve been really, really, really good on the road. Really good in the sense offensively good because they have the fifth best offense on the road with 18 goals so far. So, they tend to go out in front on the road and they tend to score more than they do at home. And they do have the best defense overall, Real Sociedad with 29 conceded goals, but they also have the fifth worst away defense with 23 conceded. So they do score a lot and they also consider a lot on the road. So, a lot of the matches on the road have went over the total, a lot of matches. Not a lot of matches, but a lot of matches for a team that is supposed to be defensive.

Pavlos:

And then I look at the history between the two sides, especially the history in Sevilla. So, in the last three matches Sevilla one by 3-2, twice, 3-2, 3-2, and then 5-2 a couple of years ago. So, something happens whenever these two meet, and I went back also in those seasons and I saw their totals numbers. They were again, not high total numbers. So these are teams that are usually defensive and they have been defensive, but something happens whenever they meet against each other. It’s like that Getafe Levante match that we talked about last week. Getafe sorry with Valencia where they have a lot of cards. So, this has a lot of goals, especially in this venue. So, I was tempted by the full over two and a half goals here. I’m not going to pick the over two. I think the price is too low. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sevilla score twice. So, what was the price on Sevilla score twice, +120?

Flash:

Have a little look at their numbers then please because if we can have the numbers put up. I think you’re going to be looking around the +110, aren’t you? Yeah, plus +120.

Pavlos:

Yeah. I wouldn’t be surprised if they scored twice because Sociedad, they’ve been destroyed on the road on numerous occasions. 4-1 to Real Madrid, 4-0 to Bilbao, 4-0 to Betis. So, they don’t usually get destroyed. But if anything, Sevilla could do that. But listen, I was going to pick Sevilla over one and a half as my extra pick for this match, but no, I’m not going to do that. I’m going to stick with my original plan.

Flash:

Okay. I’m looking forward to what your original plan was. I’m just wondering whether, again, with Sevilla playing in London against West Ham, they’re a tough big side whether it’s going to take maybe 45 minutes for them getting going, and it’s +110 for the draw half time. Maybe the unders at half time, maybe this is a 0-0 at half time. That wouldn’t surprise anyone. I’m not reinventing the wheel because Sevilla do score the majority of their goals in the second half. Let’s have a little look at the official pick before we get to the big one. It’s Sevilla double chance, and over 1.5 at -115 for Pavlos. So, Sevilla over 0.5 and over one and a half goals at minus -115. Remember he also likes, but not official pick Sevilla to score twice at +120. Okay, let’s move on.

Pavlos:

Before we move on I just wanted to say that last season in this venue, Sevilla won by 3-2 and the over… Actually, the under was gone in seven minutes. At seven minutes, the score was already 2-1 and at the 14th minute it was 2-2. So, again, take these results with a grain of salt because we were from last season, but all I’m saying is that maybe we could see goals here.

Flash:

I also wrote down, Roman, when I was doing this game is both of these teams are so comfortable on the ball. So, it’s almost like they’ve got to go and win it back in dangerous areas. Otherwise, it’s patience, patience, patience. But again, it’s also that if one of them scores it’s like taking the pin out the hand grenade.

Roman:

Yeah, it’s true. But I think maybe that Sevilla being at home are going to possibly have a bit more of the ball. They’re going to have a bit more confidence and I think Real Sociedad are going to try and maybe find a bit more of those counter attacks because they have the pace. Players like Januzaj, like Isak, Portu, et cetera. It’s another way that the team can exploit its quality. So maybe in that sense, I think Sevilla will be a bit more comfortable, but they have to watch their backs because also they have quite a few setbacks in terms of defensive injuries because [inaudible 00:34:05] and Carlos, two of their starters, we don’t know if they’re going to be available. So, that’s something to keep an eye out for too.

Flash:

Okay. So, that’s the official pick. Anyway, Sevilla double chance, and over 1.5 at -115. So, everybody in Europe will be, and around the world because these are two absolute monster teams, obviously in South America as well. It’s Real Madrid versus Barcelona. This game is better known as El Clasico. But look at the prices that tells you everything you need to know. Real Madrid at +110. I mean, a lot of people are just going to go, “Oh, my word.” But Barcelona at +225 are more than dangerous. Under or over is three goals with the over being at 105. I could see this having minimum three goals, but there again, I could also see this ending in a 1-1 draw. The draw is at +275. Roman, you are obviously going to come from a Barcelona angle because one you don’t like the home side, and two, the other one is almost like your church. So, try and break this game down for me as unbiased as you possibly can.

Roman:

Look, if you want me to be unbiased, I would easily go for that Madrid money line, +110. I think it’s fantastic value. Especially taking into account how the games have gone of late where Barca I think having won in the last five matches and Real Madrid come from an amazing performance against PSG where they just completely thrashed them in that second half, they were phenomenal.

Flash:

They had a helping hand though, didn’t they? They had a helping hand.

Roman:

They had helping hand with the first goal, but I think still, I mean, Madrid were just pushing and pushing and you could feel that at any moment PSG could break down and tumble and it really actually happened. And then they confirmed this good form with a comfortable win against Mallorca. So, of course, I think Madrid are the clear favorites for this match, and this is my unbiased perspective we could say. But then again, be careful because we have to see if Benzema is going to be available this game because he’s doubtful and they still don’t know right now in this moment if he’s going to be available. He has to go through some tests. I think that there’s a minimum chance that he can play, he’s going to play because I mean, they need him for this match, but of course they won’t take any risks because if they lose Benzema for a long term, that would be devastating. Take into account that Madrid have a comfortable gap in the standing so they don’t need to push it too much.

Roman:

But on the other hand, I think Barcelona are a team that’s capable of scoring goals. We’ve seen how their fire power has improved so much with their winter signing, sorry, with Aubamayeng, with Ferran Torres, et cetera. So, I really think that the way to go here is goals. In my opinion, I think we’re going to see goals and Barca’s attacking abilities are much better. As I said, we all know their capability and we know that for example, Barcelona can defend very well. So, whether it’s Madrid scoring all the goals or both sides, which I think is going to be the case, I think goals is the safest way to go. If you have doubts, whether Barca could come up with a surprise win.

Flash:

Yeah, but it’s called El Clasico for a reason, but there’s a lot more at stake here because this could be Barcelona putting down a flag of, we want to be number one next year. I mean, we saw in the Super Cup in the Middle East that Real Madrid dominated the game for 45 minutes and then Barcelona absolutely took them apart, and I believe that was the catalyst of what we are seeing at Barcelona now. All of a sudden they played the best team in LaLiga and completely shredded them. Pavlos, I quite like the draw after 75 minutes, and one of them maybe getting a winner late on, but I see this being a tight cagey game where neither of them like heavyweight boxes that don’t want to get punched on the nose.

Pavlos:

That’s very true. I personally didn’t like anything in this match because I like to watch these matches and not bet on those. There’s something very, very exciting. So I’m not so sure even if Barcelona they’re actually in the 96th minute against Galatasary. If they concede a goal now they’re going to have to play an extra time.

Roman:

Don’t say that, please.

Pavlos:

No, no, I don’t. I wish you the best. I really [crosstalk 00:38:04]-

Flash:

No, no.

Pavlos:

But yeah. That’s why I didn’t… I wasn’t sure if Barcelona are going to play 90 minutes, are going to play 120 minutes. I wasn’t sure, but this match smells like a lot of goals, and it looks like a lot of goals. A lot of the matches between the two sides in the past couple of seasons have had both of them score in over two and a half goals. Of course, Real Madrid are slightly a better team than Barcelona, used to be all season, but now Barcelona as Ramon said with the new signings, they’re-

Roman:

It’s over, it’s over. Sorry, 2-1, Barca won.

Pavlos:

It’s over. Okay. [crosstalk 00:38:41]. Nice. So, El Clasico, I wish you the best as well on that. So, yeah, whatever I say about the numbers is not going to help you. They’re both… They’re top two in pretty much every statistical category, these two. So, I believe that this a match where it could easily have a lot of goals, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a goalless draw either. So, really this, I hate to say it, but I don’t have anything to say in that match. I believe that you guys made some great points. I truly believe that this is one of the most unpredictable matches in the world. So, it’s better for me to just sit around and just watch it.

Flash:

I love the heading at the top. I love the heading at the top. Real Madrid, I think that’s how I should have been pronouncing it. Okay. Yeah, so listen, it’s one of those just have a little look at the official picks because I absolutely love this game. I always have done when Zidane in that was playing. I used to enjoy watching Redondo. It’s amazing over the 30 or 40 years I’ve twisted and turned on different sides because I’ve had no real loyalty, just certain individuals, but this one [crosstalk 00:39:55]. Sorry, mate.

Roman:

So, you have loyalty, right?

Flash:

Yeah, for this game, I’m really cheering on Xavi. I’m really cheering him on, but I want both… As people know, I want Real Madrid to lift the Champions League and I want Barcelona to lift the Europa League. So, I’m actually wanting no injuries.

Roman:

Music to my ears.

Flash:

I’m happy for are a dull 0-0 and my +275, with a draw after 75. I can just sit back and just say, “Well, if one of you wants to go and win it, go and win it.” But I think the fear of losing this game might just be what puts me onto a +275 winner. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of these went 2-0 up and the other one came back and it was 2-2, but I wouldn’t be surprised either if I’m watching a 0-0 after 75 minutes. Both teams to score an over two and half, Barcelona at -120. But he said that if he wasn’t Barcelona, then he would go for Real Madrid to win at +110.

Roman:

And I had another [crosstalk 00:40:52].

Flash:

Yeah, I know. Yeah, I was going to get to that. Don’t worry about that because you’ve gone all crazy in this game. You’ve over [crosstalk 00:40:59] last 105 as well. So, you are going for the old 2-2, 3-1 Barca or maybe even… I don’t want to say. It’d be the other option. All right? Okay. So, that is El Clasico, great game. It will be watched all over the world. Now, I have got a question from Danny. I’ll answer that in a minute.

Flash:

I’ll go back to the start of the show when I reminded you that we are America’s favorite sportsbook and that’s why we are closing in on 5,000 subscribers. So, if you haven’t then please do so. It’s the World Cup year, so we need to be and want to be your home of soccer as well as Europa League and Champions League and the four major European leagues. Also, if you’re in on social media, then @betussoccer is the Twitter handle you need to be following, but ring the bell, and ring the bell means that we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content. Again, leave us to do the hard work. You have your feet up and smoking a cigar if you are of that way inclined and a nice cup of tea, albeit. Okay. The one question I got from Danny was, “Can we mention, Roman, Cadiz versus Villarreal looks too obvious on an unders or away win?”

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, it feels like it should be a Villarreal win. I’m just a bit worried after all the effort they put into that game against Juventus, which was a tough one. Towards the end, of course, the last 15 minutes they got those three goals, and it was quite comfortable. But until then they had to really put a lot of effort and the energy into it. But it’s true that Villarreal do have quite a deep squad. So, I mean, we could see some players rotate and I still think Villarreal should win it all in all, but Cadiz also they’re fighting for their lives and they have been quite a rocky side to beat, to play. I mean, they haven’t got many points, but there’s still, it’s not like one of those 5-0 wins you comfortably beat or something like that. It’s usually like a 1-0 or 2-1 or something like that. So playing at home with their fans and knowing that they’re fighting for their lives. I think there’s a risk. There might be a slip for Villarreal.

Flash:

Yeah. I mean, it is just, it’s one of those where you could definitely be maybe draw half time, Dan. Okay. Now, there’s no other questions, so let’s have a little look at all the official picks. See if anything jumps out there. Roman’s got obviously two in El Clasico and he’s paying for it with Atletico. What do we think of this gentleman as a parlay? Atletico at +100, Athletic Club money line -135 pays +240. Are we interested in that?

Roman:

Sorry, what was the second bit?

Flash:

Atletico Madrid to win, and Athletic Club to win.

Pavlos:

Yeah, it could work.

Flash:

+240.

Pavlos:

It could work.

Roman:

Why not?

Flash:

I know. I agree. [crosstalk 00:43:46].

Pavlos:

It could work. Yes, yes.

Flash:

Yeah, I love it. No one in the… Rude boy is saying that in the chat. Yeah, Chelsea win the Champions League. But as you know I’ve got Chelsea as my main bet, and I’ve got… And this is a strange thing. I actually went for Real Madrid at +1600. When I checked the other day when they were 1-0 down against PSG. And then I definitely checked when they were 3-1 up, I got +1800, so I was even happier. Okay. So we’re going to do that parlay. Athletic Club at -135. Atletico Madrid at +100 and it actually pays +240. So, I will put that in there. Have a great weekend, gentlemen. Really enjoy the game, Roman, the best you possibly can. Pavlos, I know you are definitely going to sit back with a cigar and a beer because you don’t want to bet on it. So, from everyone at BetUS, I hope you enjoy the LaLiga show. Tomorrow, it’s time for the Bundesliga, and they’re now the number one profit making show on BetUS. You take care.