La Liga Picks Matchday 30 | La Liga Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS soccer channel. I’m Flash and it’s La Liga Show and it’s week 30, not many games to go. Real Madrid way out in front, but there’s also European aspirations in the top two tournaments for Barcelona and Real Madrid. So will they have one eye on that, will they have both eyes on that? Then we’ve got the Champions League places, Sevilla, Atletico Madrid, do Villarreal make a late run for it? Real Betis, they’re a little bit dodgy, and obviously Sociedad, they were up there. They were second for a while, no one’s seen them.

Flash:

Now remember, we are America’s favorite sportsbook, so I’d like to invite you to subscribe and join the other 4,400 subscribers and get us closer up to 5,000. Ring the bell, ring the bell means that you never miss any content again, with the Masters coming up, there’s Champions League, it’s Europa League, and remember it’s the World Cup draw tomorrow. So it is a World Cup year, and boy, have we got some things planned for you.

Flash:

On social media, we have a new Twitter handle, it’s @betussoccer. So if Pavlos or Roman, they have late picks or late selections or changes, they will put them in through there and then you’ll be up to date. There will be competitions later on in the year through BetUS soccer odds as well.

Flash:

Now, I’m just looking down, I’m thinking, records. Records are good for La Liga, and that is all down to Pavlos, who is my Greek expert on numbers, value, and there he is at 2.71. Remember, he was nearly 10 units down. La Liga lowdown is represented by Barcelona’s, and La Liga lowdowns, more than an expert when it comes to La Liga, in Roman, and he’s at 5.15, and it wouldn’t be La Liga show unless I told you that Roman’s record would be about 20 if his partner Paco weren’t spending all the money. I’m at 6.21, which looks good, but if you look at the last three or four weeks, it’s absolutely atrocious, because I was up nearly 14 units. But as a team, we’re at 14.95, we certainly would’ve took that, but we want to hit the ground running.

Flash:

And I’d go on record and say, the value in La Liga this weekend is off the charts, we’ve got seven games for you. Get yourselves in the chat, we will have a Q&A prior to the official picks at the end. But there is some great value, and also, there’s some teams that we’re going to have to steer clear of because we don’t know what we’re going to get.

Flash:

So in the chat, you got anything you want to say, say it, but I know that mostly, whenever we do a La Liga show, you like to listen to Pavlos and Roman. So we’ll start off with Pavlos, and we’re going to do game number one, straight into it, cause we’ve got seven games Pavlos, it’s Getafe versus Mallorca. Getafe are +110, they were +115, Mallorca +310, not so sure. The under or over is at 2, which I thought was skinny, because I thought scoring twice at +165 was an angle. And the draw is a +205, that scares me because it’s too close to the +200. Pavlos?

Pavlos:

Yeah, this is a relegation battle between Getafe and Mallorca, Mallorca are currently sitting one point above the relegation zone and Getafe just three points above, so this is a huge match for whoever wins it. It’s quite possibly, these things have a tendency to go towards the home team, but Getafe, haven’t been very, very good lately. They don’t win a lot, but they don’t lose a lot. They’ve only lost to Espanyol and Atletico Madrid in the last six, the other four we draws. Not against very good teams, they did get a tough draw at Bilbao last week, in the last match I should say.

Pavlos:

But yeah, there are often kind of struggles. They have the fourth worst offense with 27 goals, but their difference is actually quite good. Seventh best defense overall in La Liga, with 33 conceded goals. Third best home defense with just 13 conceded goals, and unbeaten in the last nine home matches, with six wins and three draws. We’ve also talked about this in previous matches that they’ve had a couple of good results at home. They had a draw against Bilbao, they beat Real Madrid, they had a draw against Valencia. So whenever they play at home, we could trust them.

Pavlos:

And Mallorca, I can’t trust them anymore. I used to trust them on the overs, possibly because they concede a lot, but lately they’ve stopped scoring. They’ve scored in just one of their last five matches. They have the third worst offense overall with 26 goals, fifth worst away offense with just 13 goals. Bad defense, second worst in the League, second worst away defense. Six consecutive losses on the road, so this is just not a very good spot for Mallorca.

Pavlos:

And again, this is relegation battle, so we usually tend to pick the home side in such situations. And Getafe, if they get a win here, they’ll move even further away from the red line, they’ll keep Mallorca below the red line. So this is actually a six pointer for Getafe, if they manage to win this one.

Flash:

Mallorca, not to score, +120. Money’s coming in for the home side, from +115, now it’s +110. Roman, I want to be with the home side. Listen, any other League, when we have a goal line at 2, you just automatically go over because you know it’s 2. But in Spain, it’s so sharp, very rarely do you get over two goals when the goal line is at two.

Roman:

Yeah, I mean it’s hard to say which way it’s going to go in a sense, if there’s going to be lots of goals, if it’s going to be a very tight game. It’s true that Getafe have been getting some decent results and draws, but they haven’t won in a long time, especially [inaudible 00:05:43]. They’re coming from a very good streak of games, where they were winning lots of points, they really pushed away from those bottom positions. And now again, they have lost a bit that bounce that came in with a new manager.

Roman:

And what worries me here is that the same effect we might see with Mallorca, because they’ve changed manager finally, after the last defeat against Espanyol for Mallorca. And so a new manager has come in called Javier Aguirre, he’s a specialist in these kind of situations where a team is at the bottom of the standings and he has to try and save them in a short period of time. So before I bet against Mallorca, I want to see what Javier Aguirre is going to implement in his new team, because I think the squad is not that bad. They have quality to get points in certain games where they’ve been really underachieving I think, even though they started quite well, their season have just gotten worse basically.

Roman:

So before, as I said, I bet against them or in favor, I want to see how it goes. And also, take into account that Getafe form hasn’t been great of late. I think it’s going to be a tricky game to predict who might win, and honestly, I think a draw is a very likely outcome for this one.

Flash:

Yeah, well the odds say that, +205. But again, I was looking at Getafe to score twice at +165. Listen, I can see it, I wrote down 2:0, and that’s why I’ve not got on the over 2, I think the over 2 is probably a push. But I just want to be with Getafe because I know that man for man, if this was the other way around, if it was in Mallorca, I’d probably want to be near Mallorca. But Getafe at home, knowing that three points put some so much better position going into the final weeks of the season, that plus money was just too big. I like Getafe, I think they’re strong, I think they control the game. I mean, Mallorca are +120, near enough even money not to score. That tells me everything I need to know.

Flash:

In the chat, I see straight away that they’re saying, AB, clear win for Getafe, but then let’s do it, let’s take it. Official pick, straight right away we’re going in, we don’t complicate it. Getafe, money line +110. And that +165 for scoring twice is really niggling at me, but I’m going to just take the +110.

Flash:

I thought this next game was the strongest pick on the card, to be honest, because we have a little look and we know we’ve got Champions League game coming up, but Levante versus Villarreal, that is bigger than a David and Goliath. You’ve got Levante +285, who are you kidding? I thought that 2 should have been an 8. Villarreal at -105. Again, money’s come in for the visitors because they were +100. Villarreal to score twice is a +110.

Flash:

Roman, I think that Villarreal score once they could win this game, so that means Levante not to score. I don’t know why Levante’s line is at 1.5, because that should be at 0.5.

Roman:

Yeah, I guess that would make more sense. I think Villarreal really have all the weapons they need to win this game, honestly, especially taking into account that Levante. are the worst team this season in La Liga, and that Villarreal now has Gerard Moreno who should be fully recovered. I think they also have Danjuma, they have all their main players available. So I think it’s going to be more easier for Emery I think to put a lineup that he might want against such a side.

Roman:

And honestly, this game against Levante, usually it’s games where we tend to see goals, we tend to see two teams going forward, trying to score. And I think Levante need to score quite desperately, they can’t afford to sit back and only add a single point. I think they need to add three points game after game, so they’re going to take certain risks, especially being at home. So why not see goals?

Roman:

Although at the end of the day, I do still think that Villarreal should be capable of winning this game, because they have the quality, and also let’s not forget, they’re also fighting to qualify for the Champions League next season, because they’re still not in the top four positions, and it’s definitely an objective they would like to achieve if possible. So they’re going to fight it until the end. And as we said, with the quality they have, that should be enough to defeat Levante.

Flash:

Yeah, and I love the fact that AB has just took the words out of my mouth. It’s a game that if you look at it too much, you start giving reasons why you don’t want to be with the around the +100, -105, the visitors Villarreal, the yellow submarine, are light years ahead of this. Every single man is a better player in the yellow of Villarreal, every single one. They keep the ball, Levante struggle against teams that keep the ball. Villarreal, obviously they’ve got the Champions League, but they also cannot drop points.

Flash:

Do we see this as just like a Villarreal win to nil Roman? Because Levante, they struggle, they really struggle when teams just have triangles, play triangles around them. And then obviously, Villarreal are not going to go for three and four, because Villarreal are probably the number one side in La Liga who can keep a little bit back in energy reserves.

Roman:

Yeah. Honestly, I do think that Levante will at least get a goal. I mean, playing at home, knowing their needs, and it’s true that maybe offensively, they haven’t been as good as they used to, I still think they have the quality to get the goals. I think Morales is back if I’m not mistaken for this game, and he’s been very important for them when he’s been available, and he was out for a while. So with him there, with Roger, with all the guys they have, I think they’re going to at least get a goal, because Villarreal can be good defensively, but they’re not the most solid team at the back. They always tend to have a few struggles, and I think that Levante are definitely going to have their chances, so it’s a matter of if they score them or not. And playing at home, I just think that’s an extra little boost they’ll have in that sense.

Roman:

So I honestly think that at least a goal from Levante’s side should be coming in.

Flash:

Pavlos, we’ve got Danny Lopez like Villarreal -1.

Pavlos:

Well, if you think that Villarreal are going win, maybe you’re going to go that way, but the price and the money line is just already too good to just mix it up with -1, because they might win just by one goal, which is actually quite a big possibility here and then you get a push. So why don’t you pick the money line? Maybe if you want to throw some more money at it, if you actually feel that Villarreal are going to win.

Pavlos:

And yeah, they do have a crucial Champions League match coming up, they will host Bayern Munich in a couple of days, so that’s always a distraction. But for the teams that can get distracted, Villarreal, I don’t feel that they’re easily distracted by it. I personally want to stay away from this much, but for what it’s worth, Levante are actually the League’s worst defense, the worst home difference, all their defensive numbers are really bad, and Villarreal are really, really dangerous. I remember earlier in the season, they beat them by 5:0, last season, they beat them in this venue by 5:1.

Pavlos:

So I don’t know, Villarreal, they have a really, really good offense, fifth best offense, and fifth worst away offense actually. On the road, they don’t score a lot, they have only 13 goals, which is the fifth worst away offense. But their difference is really great, third best overall, third best on the road. So yeah, I can definitely see like a 1:0 Villarreal win.

Pavlos:

So to answer Danny’s question, maybe you shouldn’t go with -1. Of course, they can drop five on Levante, but they probably won’t. They’ll probably want to reserve some of their strength for the upcoming match against the Bayern. So if they score a goal, they’re probably going to sit back, protect the result. So yeah, be careful with the -1. Of course, it feels like a free hit as Flash likes to say, but I think the money line is already a decent bet, like at very good odds.

Flash:

Yeah, I thought I was being greedy by jumping all over the +100. When you look at the official picks, Roman, there he is, building up his pot again, because he’s gone for Villarreal and over 1.5 at +130. I mean, that’s 35 cents better off than mine and I thought I was stealing money with Villarreal don’t complicate it money line -105.

Flash:

Let’s move on to game number three of seven that we bring you. Remember the Q&A will be before the official picks. It’s Celta Vigo versus Real Madrid, which Real Madrid is going to turn up? Because again, there’s Real Madrid that are cruising in La Liga but have a massive Champions League game in midweek. Celta Vigo +300, Real Madrid -105. Now, is that the proverbial trap or gift? Totals at 2.5, maybe going to see a reserved Real Madrid. So maybe they don’t score twice, that’s -120 if they don’t score twice, and the draw is at +260.

Flash:

Roman, I don’t think that this is cut and shut, that Real Madrid at -105 pick up all three points?

Roman:

I mean, I don’t think it’s going to be an easy game for Real Madrid. I think it’s also going to depend a lot on whether Benzema is available because we know how important his presence is. We saw it recently I think in that game against Barcelona, where not having him in front was definitely a massive setback for Real Madrid. Of course, this time they’re not going to play Barcelona, it’s another squad, it’s Celta Vigo who, well, they’re not doing it as bad as of late as they were before. But still, it’s not going to be easy, although playing away from home is never a good thing in that sense.

Roman:

And I think Celta Vigo have most of their weapons available for this game. The only player they’re possibly going to miss out, the most important one is Santi Mina, because he’s actually been accused of rape in a sexual aggression case. So it’s very likely he might go to prison because it looks really bad for him. So he might even have to leave the club soon, so he’s definitely going to play this weekend against Real Madrid, seeing where this goes. And that’s definitely a massive setback for Celta, because Iago Aspas is of course the key player, but the other main man upfront is Santi Mina. So in this case, it’s probably going to be Thiago Galhardo playing in his position.

Roman:

And it’s interesting to see what we’re going to see from Real Madrid after that thrashing by Barca, what version we’re going to get? Probably and most likely they’re going to get back on track, they’re going to fight for La Liga until the end, because they almost have it. They just need to keep adding a few more points, and they’ll get there soon, and this is definitely a key game for them to manage that. But it’s tricky, without Karim, I just can’t really trust Madrid 100%. And if you believe that something could happen here, I wouldn’t take you away from betting against them, because anything can really happen in these sort of games. So it’s going to be a tricky one, and I think it’s tough to say, that’s why I’ve stayed away.

Flash:

I don’t blame you. Pavlos, I would’ve gone with Celta Vigo +0.5, which is Celta Vigo draw double chance. I think this ends up in a draw. What is it, +260 for the draw, if that’s too rich for you, then go with Celta Vigo, because I just think Celta Vigo are one of them sides that they do come down to their opposition, but they also go up to their opposition, especially at home.

Pavlos:

Yeah, well we say it in every show, Celta Vigo are one of the weirdest teams out there, you expect them to win and they lose, you expect them to lose and they win. So I personally can really get the sense of what Celta Vigo are doing, except from a couple of occasions where I know the opposition a lot. And I believe I know Real Madrid a lot, if they had Benzema, we wouldn’t be talking about any doubts here, we would go Real Madrid money line of course, the price would have been much different. I’m not sure if Benzema is going to play. If he doesn’t play, I’m staying away from this match. I’m actually staying away from this much anyway, because the combination of Celta’s weirdness both on and off the pitch, the possible absence of Benzema and the fact that Real Madrid have an upcoming Champions League match against Chelsea, these are massive red flags for me.

Pavlos:

But Celta Vigo, we do have to say that they have the sixth best XGA, they don’t allow a lot of chances, and the third best home XGA. However, they have the third worst home defense. So they don’t allow a lot of shots, but when they do, they go in, and if they do the same thing against Real Madrid, they might concede three or four. And what’s really interesting about this matchup is the fact that each of the last eight matches in Vigo between the two sides have both teams to score and over 3.5 goals. There is a lot of high scoring matches, like 1:3, 1:3, 2:4, 2:2, 1:4, there is a lot of matches with both teams to score and over 3.5 goals. And of course, Real Madrid haven’t lost in their last eight matches, they have six wins and two draws.

Flash:

Pavlos, is it fair to say that them numbers are not… they don’t coincide with Real Madrid just about to play a quarterfinal Champions League game, and with Real Madrid being oceans clear at the top of La Liga?

Pavlos:

Well, to tell you the truth, Real Madrid have had a lot of matches that were unders lately, especially on the road. So I don’t know know actually what to make of these numbers. This is just a very, very confusing match for me, so I just skipped it. But picking any kind of over makes sense, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a goalless draw either. So when this happens, I just scrap the match, good luck with your bets if you have one here, but I feel that I move away from this much, it’s just as good as winning. It’s like money in my pocket, so I don’t know what to tell you.

Flash:

Yeah, keep it in the pocket. That’s a good attitude to have, I wish Paco had that with Roman’s money. I like the draw, I’m not going to make it official, because I don’t know what Real Madrid is turning up. I like draw half time though at +110, I can see this being a real cagey first half, and maybe we see Real Madrid do what they normally do and find a way in the last half hour. But Celta Vigo -115 double chance is also a possibility, and the draw overall at +260.

Flash:

So the official picks, because one of us has gone for an official pick, and it’s both teams to score and over 2.5 at +125. Yeah, that is a good one, because again, that brings in Celta Vigo winning 2:1, or even the 2:2 draw.

Flash:

Let’s move on to game number four, because this for me was low hanging fruit, this is Atletico Madrid versus Alaves. Atletico at -270, not getting rich on that. Alaves +950, I mean, that’s probably the price that Levante should have been against Villarreal. The draw is at +365. Under/Over 2.5 at -105 being the over. Again, Atletico, big, big game in midweek, do they score twice because we’re only going to get -165 for them to do so.

Flash:

Roman, this is a home win, but how do we turn the Atletico’s three points into decent value?

Roman:

That’s something I struggled with a bit honestly, I was tempted to try and find something, but I wasn’t really convinced by the options, even though I do think Atletico should win this game comfortably at the end of the day. Although they did lose the first leg game against, well the first leg, first round game against Alaves, which was quite a surprise, I think probably we hadn’t some money on that and evaporated into thin air. This time I don’t think it’s the same Atletico Madrid, I don’t think it’s going to be the same situation. I think that the team with Cholo Simeone has been looking so much better of late, we’ve seen it also in the Champion League where they eliminated Manchester United. I mean, they’ve shown much more maturity and composure as of late.

Roman:

The only thing that worries me here a bit is the thing they might have in terms of strikers available, because Correa got suspended in the last game with a red card, so he’s not going to play. And then there’s a doubt on whether Joao Felix is going to be available for the match, because he’s doubtful with, I think it’s some back problems he’s having, so I’ll have to wait and see if he gets there. And of course, it’s going to be Griezmann starting for sure, I think it’s the other option, and then there’s Louis Suarez we’re going to see, he did score with the Uruguay recently, so I guess that’s good. Although I don’t know if he’s had enough rest, taking into count that Simeone doesn’t really trust him as much, and physically he’s not maybe as fresh as he used to be a few years ago.

Roman:

But overall, I think Atletico are going to win, but I don’t really see too many goals in my opinion. I think it’s probably going to be one of those classic 1:0s, maybe 2:0, 2:1, but I wouldn’t go for more than that, honestly.

Flash:

Yeah. Pavlos, I’m looking at this game thinking that Atletico Madrid get themselves in front early on, and then that’s it, finish, because I’m not sure that Alaves have the tools or the weapons to break this Atletico Madrid defense down.

Pavlos:

Well Alaves, they have a tendency to fall apart in second halves on the road. In first halves on the road, they have four, six and four, four wins, six losses, four draws, and second halves on the road, they have one win, nine losses, and four draws. So that goes to show that they kind of fall apart in the second halves.

Pavlos:

While Atletico Madrid are pretty solid, five, two and seven in first halves at home, and eight, two and four in second halves at home, they just do a little better in second halves. But yeah, maybe they want to get this job done early because they have a match against Manchester city in, I think it’s three days later after this match. So they surely want to get the job done early, maybe take a quick lead and then preserve it until the end.

Pavlos:

But yeah, Atletico Madrid, the one thing worries me is the fact that they now have the eighth worst defense in La Liga, I never expected to say these words, but they do have the eighth worst defense in La Liga. Of course, that’s mainly because they do poorly on the road defensively, because they have the third best home defense with just 13 conceded goals. The XGA numbers are really good, second best overall, second best at home. While Alaves, all they’re all reds, all their numbers, all their statistics are reds, XG offense, away offense, home XGA, they’re bottom three in every major statistical category. So I just don’t see how they can threaten this Atletico side.

Pavlos:

So yeah, Atletico, super important match coming up in a few days, so they will certainly want to get this done early without spending too much effort.

Flash:

Yeah, Ryan’s just asking me what’s Atletico Madrid win to nil, and it’s +105 Ryan. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks, because I thought this was an absolute banker to be honest. So I’ve gone with halftime/full-time Atletico to get themselves in front at +105. Yes, sign me up, definitely see this being one 1:0 halftime, maybe even 2:0, 2:1, at the end of the game, but I wouldn’t put anyone off of Atletico to win to nil neither. And again, that’s just the same as +105 for the halftime/full-time.

Flash:

Let’s go on to game number five, because this should have been a parlay piece really, because Real Betis are +100. Why, how is this ever a +100? Let me just tell you now, six weeks ago, this would’ve been -190. Betis have fallen in a hole, they’ve got injuries, they’re tired, the bubble’s completely burst. And Osasuna are at +310, how dangerous are they? Roman’s going to tell us. Under/Over 2.5 goals Roman, the draw is at +240. But if I told you six, seven weeks ago that Betis would be +100 at home to Osasuna, you’d probably have bit my arm off, right up to my shoulder.

Roman:

Absolutely. I mean, it’s a bit, not sad, but it’s a bit disappointing to see how in the end, Betis couldn’t keep up with the really good football they were playing recently. As of late, the results as you mentioned, haven’t been great, eliminated against Frankfurt in the Europa League, and in La Liga they have been struggling. They did beat Athletic Club 1:0, but then again, they didn’t manage to beat Celta Vigo. And other results, well, the smashing game they had against Atletico Madrid where they lost 3:1, so you could really tell their form is going to worse.

Roman:

And as you said, lots of injuries for Betis. It’s not just Fekir who’s suspended and he’s probably their star player. Their other star player, Canales, he’s injured, and Borja Iglesias who’s been scoring the goals of late, he’s also injured. So that for me is three crucial players that aren’t going to be available for Betis. And if you want to add to that, there’s Pezzella who’s been also one of their best center backs, he’s also suspended.

Roman:

So I mean, it’s lots of problems that Betis are going to have. They could pull off a win in the end against Osasuna at home, because they still have the quality. They’ve had time to rest their players a bit I guess, with all the international break and so, but still, I’m just a bit scared because Osasuna, sometimes they tend to come really motivated against teams on the top half of the table, and I think it’s going to be a very tight game. I don’t think we’re going to see many goals honestly, I think it might be maybe a 1:0 win or a 1:1 draw or something like that. So that’s why for me, it’s a game to stay away, especially taking into account Betis’ form, and the fact that they have lots of key players unavailable for this match.

Flash:

Yeah, I’ve got a massive red flag here Pavlos, it’s because Betis are so much better than Osasuna, but they were -120. They were -120, they’re now +100. I should be going [inaudible 00:26:57], because there’s a massive warning going out. If Betis can’t win this game, this is the best gift present for anyone who kept the faith with Betis.

Pavlos:

Yeah, that’s true. I know I’m going to sweat this one because I actually have a play here, but I really want to take my chances because the prize keeps getting higher. That’s not actually one of the reasons, but I-

Flash:

Is that not like catching a falling knife?

Pavlos:

Yeah, that’s true. And I think that this is a much more Betis have to win, I know that they struggle a lot, they have a lot of injuries, and Osasuna have actually been quite surprising on the road. They have the fifth most points on the road, they have six wins, six losses and two draws. However, we have to take into consideration who these wins came against. They beat Rayo Vallecano, Granada, Mallorca, Alaves, Cadiz, and Villarreal. So apart from Villarreal, all the other teams are below them in the standings and most of them are relegation candidates. And when you look at Betis, not so strong home record, eight wins, five losses, two draws, but the losses came against Atletico Madrid, Villareal, Celta, Sevilla, and Real Madrid, so these are all very strong teams.

Pavlos:

So yeah, I know Betis have their struggles. And I’ve said it actually back when Betis were on top of the horse, I told you guys that they have a very tough schedule, they have like-

Flash:

You did, you did. The last eight weeks, you said.

Pavlos:

… brutal. But now they’re out of the Europa League, they do still have the Copa del Ray final to look forward to, but their last four matches of the season are with Barcelona, Valencia, and Real Madrid. So if they somehow lose, and it’s not that farfetched to lose the Copa del Ray final, they’re in risk of dropping out of the top seven and getting nothing out of this actually spectacular season they’ve had so far. So they’re in danger of getting nothing out of this really, really good season.

Pavlos:

So I believe that looking forward to their schedule, they know that they don’t have many easy matches left. They’ve now dropped to the fifth spot with 50 points, Real Sociedad have 48 and Villareal have 45. So a couple of missteps and they could easily find themselves outside of European soccer next season. So maybe, not maybe, for sure this is one of the matches that they should win. I know Osasuna are kind of dangerous on the road, but I just love Betis at this point. I know I’m going to sweat it, I’m willing to take the risk with Betis here.

Flash:

Yeah, I mean, it’s going to be the best +100 you’ve ever had. I can see this probably going back into -110 when they see the team news, or maybe it’s one of those that you have in play as well, because if Betis start well and you can see they’re dominating, then you’re probably going to get maybe like +110, +115. But you’re looking for a response, without a doubt from the home side response, otherwise their season’s over and they’re putting their feet up beside the pool, ready for their holidays.

Flash:

Let’s have a little look at the official pick, and it’s Betis moneyline at +100. And by the way, that was -120.

Flash:

Let’s move on to game number six, because I think we could be here for hours, because this is unbelievable value, Granada versus Rayo Vallecano. Granada is starting to become the side that we want them to be at home, whether they win, lose, or draw, they’re starting to find a bit of energy. It’s +170 for them to score twice, that’s a possibility. +160 just to win the game against a Vallecano side who are a little bit like Betis in the previous video, mid-season they were fantastic, they’re now struggling. And listen, they are struggling, but they did all their work, their good work, in the first and second third of the season.

Flash:

However, Vallecano are +119, no thank you. Under/Over 2.5, don’t think you need to go near that neither. The draw is at +220. Pavlos, I’m coming to you because I’m not complicating this, it’s Granada all the way, and instead of them +170 to score twice, moneyline at +160 is just too big.

Pavlos:

It is, it is too big. And this is actually one of the matches that we say is six pointer, in the sense that if Granada win, not only do they win three points for themselves, but they deduct three points from Rayo Vallecano. And I’m not so sure if Rayo Vallecano are safe from relegation, they are sitting at the 13th spot with 32 points, just six point above the relegation zone, with a match in hand. Okay, but they’ve been really, really worrisome to say the least, in the past couple of weeks or so, maybe couple of months. They’re winless since a Copa del Ray match in February 2nd, their last League win was over Alaves, it was in 2021.

Pavlos:

So they’re really struggling on the road, they now have the fifth worst offense overall with 29 goals. And remember, they had possibly the second or third best offense at one point, now they have the fifth worst, they stopped scoring goals. And especially on the road, they have the worst away offense with just eight goals. And their defense, overall they have the eight best defense with 34 conceded, but on the road they have the six worst away defense with 23 conceded. So they don’t score goals on the road, they concede a lot on the road.

Pavlos:

And Granada, of course they don’t create a lot of chances, worst XGA, worst XGA at home, fourth worth defense. These are defensive numbers, sorry, a lot of numbers, sometimes I get confused, but their defense just doesn’t look good. Their offense, maybe in a good day, they can score two, maybe three.

Pavlos:

But as far as this match goes, this is a tough match. Maybe you can get on the board because Granada have a terrible defense, but then again, Rayo have a terrible offense. So this looks like a very weird match to predict. I think that there is a lot of draw in there, maybe a 1:1, something like that, 2:2, because Rayo, they know that a loss here combined with some other results could bring them terribly close to the red line.

Pavlos:

So I still don’t think that they’re going to win, I think Granada have shown kind of a fighting spirit, especially in the last two matches. But yeah, I believe this is match where Rayo Vallecano won’t win, but they could get on the score sheet, they could get. Seems weird, but they could get.

Flash:

Okay. Roman, if the away side are going to successfully retain their La Liga status, then it’s going to be from their home form. And also, their squad size is not big enough to be able to compete home and away, and I think that’s why they are in the precarious position they’re in. But Granada, if they are going to kick on, it’s going to be their home games, not their away games.

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, it should be their home games. Although if you look at their recent record at home, they haven’t been great, and their best recent result was actually a massive comeback against Alaves, that away game in the Mendizorrotza where they won 3:2. And they have also been struggling to score goals, so getting three in the same game I think is really important for Granada. I think that could kind of kick off a change in their mentality, in the way they’re playing, because they also just got a new manager quite recently. So things are changing there quite quickly, and the players have to adapt to these new systems and new ideas. But I think at home from now on, should be the place where they get most of their points, and especially against a team like Rayo Vallecano who’s only won one away game, and I think they’ve drawn two and the rest have been defeats.

Roman:

So Rayo Vallecano, we’ve said it constantly since 2022, they’ve been really poor, they’ve been struggling so much. And also, they’re going to miss out on their best player who’s suspended, which is Trejo, who moves that midfield also going forward, he’s a very, very important player. I mean, they still have quality of course, if they could kind of play as they were doing before this new year came, we wouldn’t doubt them even without Trejo. But seeing their form of late, Granada have a very big opportunity here.

Roman:

Although both teams do have a few setbacks in terms of injuries and all that, but I still think that Granada have enough firepower. They did a couple of signings in the winter transfer market, which are looking quite decent, and I think overall, they should be capable of getting the win. Although in my case, I’m going to go for them to score at least two goals, because I think that should be a very likely case scenario.

Flash:

It’s a massive price. Listen, let’s get these official picks up, because they’re all great. I mean, I love them all. Grenada or tie, so basically that’s Grenada double chance, draw double chance, and over 1.5 goals at +105. For me, I’m not complicating it, I’m with the home side, +160 against a Vallecano side that I can’t remember the last time they won. In fact, it wasn’t even this year. Granada team total over 1.5, love that as well, at +170. I mean, this is the game gentlemen that will make or break our week, and as long as the home side wins, we’re all going to be very, very happy.

Flash:

Let’s go to the final game because it’s probably the biggest game in stature and with names, Barcelona versus Sevilla. Barcelona are -220, going great guns now, really have found their rhythm, scoring goals at will, any many individuals are scoring as well. Sevilla +600, when would you ever think you’ll see +600 for Sevilla? You’re even getting plus money about Sevilla +1. Under/Over 2.5 goals, that’s because Sevilla are involved, not because Barcelona are involved. The draw is at +375.

Flash:

Roman, I’m going to come to you first because this is your team, you’ve got to be so happy, because listen, what a difference between the start of the season and where we’re at now. Barcelona, not only are they pushing for Champions League, they’re pushing to obviously lift a European trophy, and be realistic contenders for next year’s La Liga.

Roman:

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, who would’ve thought that we were going to win 4:0 at the Bernabeu, I think nobody really believed that was a possibility. And it’s not just the four goals we scored, it’s the way we played, we absolutely dominated Real Madrid. It was four goals, but it could have been six or seven honestly, the chances were there, a few important ones were missed. But overall, the team gave a fantastic performance and Real Madrid really struggled without Karim. Vinicius had a few chances, but apart from that, there wasn’t really much from them. So Barcelona have the momentum, with Xavi they’re playing fantastic, it’s really, really clicked on, and now it’s going to be interesting to see if they can confirm even more this good rhythm and this good football against Sevilla.

Roman:

But in my case, I decided to stay away, because international breaks historically have never really been too good on Barcelona. So I want to see the outcome of that, even though players like Busquets for example weren’t called up for the international break, they were given a rest, which I think was very nice of Lois Enrique in this case, of the Spanish manager.

Roman:

And I want to see how Sevilla perform, because they’re a tricky side as you said, because of them these games tend to go to unders, although it’s contrasting, because Barcelona on the other hand are a team that like to score a lot. So I’m not really sure we’re going to see a low scoring game, if it will be a massive score line if Barca are going to win comfortably, or if it’s going to be a draw at the end of the day.

Roman:

So there are so many doubts in my mind that I decide to pass, but I do understand if you want to go for Barcelona because their form is fantastic. And I think they should get the win at the end of the day, just that I don’t see value in the moneyline on its own, and I didn’t want to really mix things up because I wasn’t sure which way it was going to go in terms of goals basically.

Flash:

Yeah. I mean, Pavlos, this game is all about Sevilla. When do you ever see Sevilla at +600? There’s no team on the planet Sevilla will play at +1 at +110. Now, I have a little question mark over Sevilla’s normal steeliness that we see, not there. I mean, they’re not scoring enough goals, they’re not keeping the back door closed, so there is something there, there’s a chink in their armor, and Barcelona are probably the hottest side in La Liga. But just on numbers, Sevilla are too big.

Pavlos:

Yeah. I mean, if you look at the numbers, I was actually rubbing my eyes to see that, are this odds correct? Like do I see a +650 on Sevilla and +350 on the draw, and why shouldn’t I? Then I said, okay, so what’s the spread? The spread is +1 for Sevilla. And then I went and saw how many times have Sevilla lost this season in the La Liga? Twice, both by one goal, they didn’t get destroyed. How many times have Sevilla lost throughout the season? Just seven matches in all competitions this season, all seven losses came by exactly one goal. So that goes to show that they never get destroyed, they’re very careful, even in their losses, they don’t get destroyed. And when you add to that their defensive numbers from this season in the La Liga, third best XGA, best XGA on the road, best defense, best away defense.

Pavlos:

I mean, okay, I know Barcelona are really great and all, but I’d actually like to take a moment and answer to Ryan from before, he said do I have any stats on international breaks? I do know this thing, I don’t have any stats about goals, international breaks don’t really affect goals, but what they do affect is the form. And when you see a team with very good form such as Barcelona go into the break, sometimes that good flow, that good rhythm, gets interrupted, and when they come back from the break, they’re just not as good.

Pavlos:

And the same goes for teams with the opposite kind of form, for example, teams that are struggling, and Sevilla were struggling before the break because they have just two wins in their last eight matches in all competitions. Teams who struggle right before the breaks, they actually love the break because they have the chance to rally together, regroup, exactly, to regroup, and they have a chance. Some injured players are going to come back, some people that had COVID are going to come back, they’re just going to relax and look at the videos again, see what’s wrong with them, what could they improve. So we’ve seen a lot of teams in good form perform poorly after the break and teams in bad form that they perform much better after the break.

Pavlos:

So all things considered, I believe that Sevilla, who by the way, their numbers offensively haven’t been very good, they have the fifth worst away offense, they don’t score a lot on the road, but they don’t concede either. And also, one last thing that I forgot to say is the fact that Sevilla dropped out of the Europa League, so there’s literally nothing left for them, there’s only the La Liga. And of course, the title is probably out of the question, they’re already nine points behind, but a loss here to Barcelona would not only cost them the second spot, but could easily, I don’t know, maybe drop them outside the Champions League spots if they have a couple of mishaps. So I love the Sevilla double chance here, I wouldn’t be surprised if they won at +650, I’m going to sprinkle a little beer money on that. But I believe that they’ll remain competitive at least in this match.

Roman:

But Pavlos-

Flash:

I cannot believe, cannot believe that neither of you, hang on Roman, because you’re going to just go with your straight Barcelona shirt on, listen to me. I wrote down Barcelona win this game 3:1, that’s what I wrote down before we were talking. I cannot believe that Sevilla to score a goal against a Barcelona side that don’t keep many clean sheets, it’s at -135, just for Sevilla to score and not give a monkeys about anything else that happens in the game. What do we think? Roman, sorry to interrupt you.

Roman:

No, no, I just wanted to add that Pavlos was saying that when Sevilla lose, it’s usually by one goal. I think that probably applies very similarly to Real Madrid, if they lose, it’s probably by a very tight margin, but then comes a 4:0 against Barcelona at home. So that’s why I think it’s a bit unpredictable in that sense, [inaudible 00:42:59] really, really, really sharp at that moment.

Flash:

[crosstalk 00:42:59] to it. It’s been sitting there on mute for six minutes.

Pavlos:

You’re a Barcelona fan, we get it Roman. We get it Roman, you’re a Barcelona fan.

Flash:

Yes, he’s been crying all season.

Roman:

Seriously, you know that I’m cautious in this sense when it comes to Barcelona, I don’t just jump on them. But if it’s your money, it’s okay Pavlos, don’t worry, but I mean, if it’s not, you know?

Pavlos:

One last thing that I wanted to say is the fact that Sevilla have actually not done very well in this venue over the years, they have suffered a lot here, but that was under Lionel Messi. Now that Messi is out, it’s a different team, I know they have different capabilities. But I think just for the sake of old time, for old time sake, Sevilla will want to get a positive result in Barcelona, so I feel that Sevilla have a fighting chance here. Worst case scenario, it’s a push.

Flash:

Listen, I love it. I love the fact that this is the type of game where if you go with current form, Barcelona cruise. If you go with numbers, then you can only go with Sevilla. But again, adding it all up, Sevilla just score, it’s like crazy, at -135. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because I didn’t have, but I’ve added, I’ve put it on the slip, I’ve got me Sevilla over 0.5 at -135, and it’s severe +1 at +110.

Flash:

Now, let me take you back before we go for the official picks and invite you to subscribe and get us closer to 5,000 subscribers. Also, ring the bell, ring the bell means you’re not going to miss any content again. Also, @betussoccer, you must follow us, because if Roman or Pavlos have anything added or they want to take something away, that is going to be your hub. You need to be there. And obviously, we’re going to have everything right away through because it is a World Cup year.

Flash:

Now the first question has come in. Very quickly though Roman, is Falcao going to be fit for Vallecano?

Roman:

Again, he’s doubtful. You can’t really rely too much on Falcao at the moment, he’s reached an age where this happens, and he’s always been quite injury prone during his career. And we’ve seen that he isn’t as crucial for Rayo Vallecano as we thought he was at the beginning when he came in, he scored I think the first few matches, it looked fantastic, but then it kind of faded away, together with the team in general. So even if Falcao was there, I don’t think that would be a very defining thing that would make you take one decision or another.

Flash:

Okay. There is no other questions because we’ve absolutely smashed it gentlemen, seven games question and answers, and we’ve even added another selection. Really enjoyed this show, I hope you have too, I really like this card. And remember, we’re 15 units up before we start. I’m just adding on there, Sevilla over 0.5, so Sevilla just to score a -135.

Flash:

Pavlos has got Betis moneyline at +100. I don’t want to throw one into him, but that was -120, but Sevilla +1 at +110. Roman’s gone with Villarreal and over at +130. Celta Vigo Real Madrid, both team to score a +125. Remember, he has over 2.5 as well. That’s from Pavlos and Roman, I expect to see Roman on Tuesday when we have the Europa League show. Pavlos you get your red back into your number stats, maybe even some corner bets next week please.