Flash:
I know, but also I’ve got to give myself a little bit of a check because I had to write down and I was told this many, many times, the world does not revolve around you, Flash. There is a semi-final of a Champions League going on and I am busting balls to get my show organized 24 hours in advance. So I move on to your partner, shall I, Paco? Because the other one I will write down the games so I want to cover into the graphics department of fine and then I will do my selections. Did I wake you last night? Did I Pavlos?
Speaker 3:
Yes, to be honest. I was undressed and humble waiting bed. Literally I was with the phone just last minute checking and I said, “Oh God, I forgot the picks.” And it was like three in the morning. So yeah, I came here, I gave the picks because business comes first and now let’s talk about, because they’re quite a few from my end.
Speaker 2:
This week you went with half of the games of the match day, which is leave a record on this show. So it seems like Pavlo-
Flash:
It’s called-
Speaker 2:
Pavlos has found-
Flash:
It’s called-
Speaker 2:
… Has found that treasure. Yeah,
Flash:
Exactly. No, Paco, it’s called being Spiteful because I woke him at three o’clock in the morning. He’s like, “Okay, you want to wake me, huh? Okay.”
Speaker 3:
Speaker 3:
I will see you tomorrow.
Flash:
“See if you like these onions.” And then he puts down that I’ve then got cover, eight games. But listen, that’s what we’re here for. Let’s have a quick look at the records because if I have a good week here I’m going to get minus and single digits. We’ve really recovered well by the way Paco, because we was up like minus 30 and now since Christmas up plus 16 and that’s happened across nearly all the shows that we do now, which is really, really good. Pavlos 3.53, you’ve done really well as well and LALiga lowdown, well Paco is your teammates. I don’t even know why you still associate with them because obviously you do all the hard work and then they spend the money.
Let’s crack on, eight games. There’s no time to waste, Rona versus Villarreal. And this is one game that I was like, “Okay, I’ve got to go with this.” And I thought, “Whoa, just wait and have a little look. Don’t judge this book by its cover because Rona at plus 180 Villarreal plus 135, the draw is at plus 280, the under over is set up three with the over being at plus 100. Pavlos, Rona Villarreal your initial is that you’ve got to go with the away side.” Then do you start looking at both teams to score an over, do you look at Villarreal to win and both teams to score? There seems to be quite a bit of value because Villarreal scored twice is at minus 105.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, maybe Villarreal scored twice is a better way to go about this because I initially I wanted to have a pick in this match and then I was looking at some kind of both into score combo maybe over something or zero or tie or Villarreal both score, something like that. But then I looked at the history between these two sides and each of the last six matches between two sides had both teams to score no and only one of them had over two and a half goals and it was a capital of Rema. So for whatever reason, whatever this two meet, and I take this historical facts very much into consideration when I make my picks it threw me off. But again, I believe the way that these two are playing both team to score would be the baseline here. This match starts at one 1/1 and then whoever scores the most goals but zero, they’re now sitting inside the European Conference League spots and maybe that’s going to scare them maybe, I don’t know.
Speaker 3:
But this match looks like gold but for some reason my gut instinct told me to just stay away from it because we might as well see a low scoring match. But again this is just my hands statistically these two sides, they should produce some kind of overall both to score or both of them here. As for a winner, I-
Flash:
I think you see Pavlos, do you think we see four goals though? I was expecting this to be like two and a half.
Speaker 3:
Speaker 3:
We could see four goals but again we could easily see one of them or two of them. So again, this total is very, very, very weird. So I’d stay away.
Flash:
Okay, Paco, if I see three goals, which is obviously the goal line but the under is at minus 120, which is then also telling you that really they are expecting three goals because if they was expecting maybe 2.75 that will be under three at minus 135. So Villareal how did they score twice at minus 105?
Speaker 2:
Perfectly. So I think that’s a big possibility especially if you see the current form of both sides. They are nailing each other’s results in the last four match days. Three wins, one draw especially as both teams have delivered a big push on the European aspirations for Villarreal only sitting five points away of the champion league spots, which is pretty much amazing especially as the season has been with many ups and downs and moments where it seemed that the team wouldn’t make it but suddenly they are there, they still need to secure that fifth place if they want to duke it out with Betis in the final stretch of the competition.
So with 12 points to go, Rayo isn’t that far away so they definitely need to win this game whereas for Gidona, as we’ve spoken about them earlier, I think that they suddenly became an unleashed pack after securing their remaining in LaLiga after securing at sports in next season’s competition and avoiding relegation mathematically. Suddenly [inaudible 00:08:15] has started scoring left and those four goals a couple of weeks ago he’s seen on a riot in the last few games and that’s why they have been able to overtake Atlético club in the race for in this case conference league also Osasuna.
Also remember Sevilla is menacing from the back on this last stretch of games. So both teams have many reasons to win this game but I think that Villarreal have that edge of both desperation and form even though they disappointed a couple of weeks ago, they were able to win last game and I think that both and the rest of the strikers are on point. So as you said, Villarreal two goals perfectly. So both to score definitely a possibility and I went with the over 2.5 and Villarreal win because first of all the odds were quite yummy and I think that this score one, two for the away side two three could definitely be the way to go. So even though Pavlos remained away from this one, I went straight in to dig in and I think that we can rip the benefits in this game.
Flash:
Okay, let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks of game number one as we climb this mountain. Villarreal and over two and half at plus 250. I also do like Villarreal to score twice at minus 105. Move on to game number two. Almería home to Mallorca. Almería look very tasty to be honest. At plus 130 as a host the party Islanders plus 230, the draw is at plus 225. The under over is minus 115 for the over two and a half but the under two and a half is minus 135. If Almería are going to win, I think they’re going to have to keep a clean sheet. Pavlos, if they keep a king sheet then Mallorca is plus 180 not to score.
Speaker 3:
But the problem is it’s actually quite weird. The last time they kept a clean seat was in February and against Barcelona and prior to that I think it was in 2022. So this Almería side can’t really keep clean seats. Yes, Mallorca can be kind of constipated on the road at least they’ve been all season but both teams they’re opening up lately. Mallorca they’re five and two to the both of them to score in the last seven matches, Almería turn a no to the both teams score and nine and one to the over two and a half goals in that span. So Almería, their three remaining matches are away at Sociedad who are fighting to remain inside the top floor. [inaudible 00:10:58] are battling relegation and away Espanyol who are also battling relegation. So Almería, this whole month, they need to win this one but Mallorca on the other hand they’re actually fighting for Europe.
There are four points, yes it’s a long shot but theoretically mathematically they can still make it to the top seven to the European country league sport. There’re just four points behind [inaudible 00:11:23] but there is also four teams in between them. So I think this is going to be a both of them to score match. I was torn between taking both to score, taking the over two and a half goals because again Mallorca have opened up lately. Almería always opened they score, they can see it left and right. So I think this is going to be a match where both of them to score again is the baseline and that’s where I’m going with this one. And keep in mind that Almería, they actually beat most of the fellow relegation candidates so they are above them in the tiebreaker. So even a point here wouldn’t be catastrophic Almería, they they’d still remain above the relegation zone. So in the fear of a 1/1 draw, I’m taking both teams to score here.
Flash:
Okay. Both teams to score is around the minus 120. When I first looked at it, went with my initial impression and I thought Almería win this game at plus 130 don’t complicate it but I’m not sure I saw both teams scoring but now obviously when Pavlos has gone for it I’ve got to maybe just put the brakes on Paco.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, the way I see it I think that Mallorca are already on their way to their holidays because after finishing and achieving those 44 points mathematically saved, I think that this week has been quite lacks and easygoing on the level of training and also a couple of lunches, team lunches here and there celebrations ongoing because ultimately their main goal was remaining in LaLiga and they were able to achieve it. So I think that it can go either way. I think Mallorca playing with no pressure can be something pretty interesting to watch. But at the same time if you compare that as I said easygoing attitude and see the contrast with Almería who are going with the knife in the middle of their teeth and going for it, I think that the desperation is going to give them the edge. So I see Almería as the favorite in this game.
I see the money line quite, I think it’s a big sign of… Yeah, very attractive Almería money line would be quite easy and not that strange to ultimately happen but as I said, I think that Mallorca can’t be valued delivered on evaluation in them because I think that the different things which happened this week are going to relax them a bit. Maybe it goes the other way, I don’t know but I think they are too far away from the European race. They are already saved and I think that the remaining four games over them are going to be costing it and just relaxing.
Flash:
Okay, Almería are plus 140 to score twice. New Yorker have let in two plus goals in seven of their last 10 away games. So again, even if you didn’t want to go with money line, you can still get plus 140 for Almería to score twice. But then I would go then say if Almería is scoring twice, I think they win the game but then the money line is at minus 135 so it brings in the one deal as well. Let’s have a little look at the official pick please. It’s both teams score minus 120 for Pavlos.
Okay, let’s move on to game number three because we talk about bumfights minus 205 at home against Elche side who are already through the trap door already selling tickets for a different division next year they’re plus 650 but be careful of them sides who go places who now want to catch the eye and we say this every year, the Elche players who don’t want to go through that trap door need to put on performances and catch eyes of scouts who can then maybe pick them up on the cheap because Elche don’t want to carry the wages over draw plus 315.
So I just feel as if this is an over two and half goals at my plus 125. I think we start there Paco, I think we see goals,
Speaker 2:
Yes, I think that we are going to see goals even though I have my doubts and I don’t know if Elche are going to be that interested as you are putting it in having a good game whenever this time of the year comes around and you find yourself with at least one team already relegated, many things come into play in every single game and I don’t know how Elche is to speak about this but ultimately Elche can have many reasons to give their best in these kinds of games even though they’re already relegated, okay, many, many reasons. Whereas for Getafe as I said earlier with Almería, they are in the same case. They have the desperation, they have the edge, they have ball the last which delivered once again that example of champaign football in their win two weeks ago with all of the [inaudible 00:16:28], the ball boys disappearing in the 10 minute that was sublime.
But ultimately I think that they’re going to go the same way. I think Getafe are going to try to score very early and they will just throw the game into the mud, post potential bloodbath over here. So maybe Pavlos can be very alert of this game, but I see Getafe, I don’t see any scenery where this game isn’t a Getafe win because they would complicate their life awfully if they don’t win the three points here. Remember that they are sitting with 34 inside the relegation zone. If they win they can jump three spots on the same night and draw 11 Valenti with 37 points. Leave Almería [inaudible 00:17:15] in the mud. They can get far away from Espanyol with a six point gap.
Speaker 3:
So Getafe have to win this game and I don’t see any other outcome we can later sprinkle in their goals. See if they… I think that Getafe going to score in the first cap. By the way, I didn’t go with this game but because I saw some more potentially in other matches this weekend. But definitely Getafe going for it from the beginning scoring early and try to deliver their trademark [inaudible 00:17:45] in the remaining minutes of the game.
Flash:
I just cannot believe that I’m talking about a game where Getafe sitting third from bottom and minus 205 on the money line, it’s just completely bonkers. And also over two and a half goals at plus 125. You could bring that in because hat Getafe might score three or Getafe scored twice at minus 125 Pavlos. Why am I covering this game?
Speaker 3:
Listen, I looked at the schedule for each and every team and Getafe this is their easiest match to finish the season and they need the points. So I was looking at some kind of parlay with Getafe win, Getafe minus one was also an option but they could easily win by exactly one goal. So I got creative and Getafe in the last four… In the last three matches they’re playing away at Betis for fighting for the Europa League spot at home against Osasuna who were also fighting to catch that seventh spot. And [inaudible 00:18:45] who are fellow allegation candidates? So this match against Elche is by far the easiest one, they have to finish the season. Now, Getafe they won 10 matches whole season in all competitions. Eight of 10 wins came with under two and a half goals. So either one nils or two nils and nine of 10 wins came with under three and a half goals.
Elche are on a 61 run to the under three and a half goals and nine and two to in the last 11 and on the road they’re 13 and one to the under three and a half goals. So anything other than a home win for Getafe could be catastrophic for their season but they’re usually… They’re used to playing in this situation so they’ve battle their allegation many times in the LaLiga and they usually make it out in the clear. So I believe that they’re going to win and this is the easiest match that they have to play in the end of the season. I don’t think they’re going to risk too much. So I’m pairing tough to win and under three and a half goals a really nice price. Now with the money line dropping this odds might go down a little bit but at the time, last night when he woke me up it was a minus 120.
Flash:
Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks then because I’m getting involved here and I’m just going to go with massive value by the way. Because I think the wayside with a free roll or a free hit if you like are just being completely ignored and under three and a half minus 120 sets Getafe to win. And under three and a half goals at minus 120, that brings in perfectly my two one because I’ve got both teams scoring over two and a half at plus 200, 21. Then obviously we’re both happy. That’s the dream score for that game. Okay, I’m going to stay with you Pavlos because again, Barcelona minus 120 are the champions Real Sociedad plus 325. Some people will look at Sociedad, and think double chance plus 100. So you’ve got Sociedad and the draw going for you against a side like Barcelona who not be great to be honest for the last four, five weeks the draws at plus 275 under over two and a half minus 110. I think it’s all about Pavlos. What Barcelona turns up because Sociedad, they need to put a performance together.
Speaker 3:
Yes, this is… Actually, I was waiting for this match for quite a while because last season we had a similar situation where Barcelona were hosted by Real Sociedad. Now why did I pick this match? Because I was waiting for one quality team to come and score the second goal in the first half for Barcelona. Barcelona in the first halves at home have been insane so far in the season. 11 wins six draws, zero losses. This is the best home record in first halves by the way. Scoring 21 goals and consider just one goal. That’s it. They’ve considered just one goal in first halves at home. This quite impressive but I don’t expect them to finish the season with just one considered goal in first half. Now this might seem like a silly statistic to somebody, but for me it’s very, very serious and some people also when players and coaches take that match into consideration.
Now Barcelona, they have two remaining home matches this one against Real Sociedad and the one against, Mallorca. Mallorca I don’t expect them to score in the first half. They’re kind of bad especially on the road. So it’s up to Real Sociedad to do it, who by the way have the best away record in the first half several win, six draws, four losses, they have the best away first half or offense with 12 goals and they have the second best goal difference which is plus four. Not that great, but still these are all good enough for me to pick Real Sociedad to score in the first half price is massive plus 170 and again last season it was reversed. It was Real Sociedad who had considered just two goals I believe in a similar situation in the season it was like 35th, 33rd must day, something like that.
And we bet on Barcelona just to score in the first half. And of course Aubameyang scored it was a one nil. I think history is going to repeat itself. I’m going to take Real Sociedad to score in the first half. Don’t care who wins in the rest, don’t care what happens over under or winner.
Flash:
Yeah, because plus 170 is a big jump from Real Sociedad, Paco being minus 200 to score anyway. I think Sociedad at plus 100 double chance is probably the only way to go in this game because you can’t trust the homeside.
Speaker 2:
Again, I think Pav says week has been marked by their championship celebrations last weekend they’ve had a couple, as I said it was the case with Mallorca of team dinners and overall I think that there is going to be a feisty mood and I don’t know if they’re going to go like a hundred percent motivated towards this game whereas for Real Sociedad have many many reasons to go all in with that chance to qualify for next season’s Champions League. So I didn’t actually watch and take notice of that plus 100 for Real Sociedad at double chance. But I think that is one of the tastiest picks of the show at least this week. I think that’s not really having nothing to fight for because there’s no record involved.
I think that Charlie is going to deliver a few rotations here and there players are going to be clapped and cheered for them because they’re playing at home one of the last games by the way, which is going to be played at Camino before those works the following season. So overall I think that the party in Barcelona is going to favor Real Sociedad that in this match.
Flash:
Yeah, it’s almost like exhibition type atmosphere I believe in Sociedad only have to be serious. Let’s have a little look at the official picks here because I know that Pavlos has gone first half Sociedad team tour over low 0.5 at plus 160. I do like that Sociedad double chance plus 100 maybe if you follow @betustv and I may well add that. Let’s move on to game number five because it’s Rayo versus Espanyol. Paco, Rayo plus 115 Espanyol plus 245. The draw is at plus 245 also the under over is set at two and a half at plus 100. I thought Paco, that this was another game with goals.
Speaker 2:
Yes, with goals and potentially with the killing blow for Espanyol after they were able to win three weeks ago. It seemed that they could have some life infused into them but the latest defeats, especially the last one against Barce was very damning Espanyola in shambles the whole season. They have tried to fight to just clinging in there to avoid relegation to avoid the drop but at this point they’re sitting with 31 points far away from [inaudible 00:25:47] far away from leveling with [inaudible 00:25:50] lead. But the average, the goal average, it’s really favorable for them in regards to the rest of the relegation scrap to avoid the drop. And I think that Rayo Vallecano on their behalf they are more or less in the same situation as Mallorca but at the same time they have reasons to keep fighting. First up because Iraola isn’t really going to allow them to relax.
He’s not that kind of manager and also because they have been all the season fiddling with those European spots and ultimately it really depends what Sevilla is going to do because they are focusing in their game and in their chances of the Europa League. And also Osasuna after their defeats in the cop refinery, they were able to bands back and win once again and they are in the fight and in the run for that conference league spot.
But remember Rayo 46 points only two away from Girona. Possibly this season is the tightest fight for Europe and fight to avoid relegation in the last-
Flash:
Yeah, love it.
Speaker 2:
I don’t know, five, six years and that is amazing for the fans and also amazing for finding the value in the games. So I think Rayo are the favorites and they should win this game if they are able to capitalize on that motivation to become the seventh in the table. And this as I said is going to be a dagger for Espanyol. So maybe Rayo money line, that’s the way I went. But as you said, goals in this game, I don’t discard, I wouldn’t rule out a thrashing from Rayo Vallecano especially if they play with that kind of free flowing style trying to get easy [inaudible 00:27:35] into the mix scoring and generating chances. Espanyol I think that they aren’t equipped to deal with this kind of opposition.
Flash:
Pavlos, Rayo plus 115 money line, Rayo plus 120 a score twice. Are we saying that if Rayo scored twice they’re not guaranteed to win?
Speaker 3:
Yeah, probably. Yeah, and I love at least four bets in this match. I’m going to talk just a quick shout out to all of my bets because a quick mention because I think I’m going to personally, I’m going to bet them all but for this show I picked just one, just the strongest one. Now keep in mind this is a very important match for another reason. Raud Thomas is facing his former team. There was a lot of drama he wanted out, they wouldn’t let him out, then they suspended him and then I don’t know, there was a whole lot of drama and now he has the chance and he’s been starting lately, he hasn’t scored a lot of goals but he surely has the maximum motivation to score and quite possibly doomed to relegation his former side that tormented him so much. Actually, I’m not taking sides here, but there was a lot of drama. So surely Raud Thomas is going to have some bad blood against this former side. So Raud Thomas’s score is at plus 220. This is the first of my props if you want to keep them now
Flash:
I’m writing them down. I wrote down, I wrote down basically ATS Thomas and then you basically… I didn’t need to ask you, you gave me the information.
Speaker 3:
Yes and as you guys said right, you’re still in the chase to finish in the top seven. Now last season we’re one of the best, especially in the first half of last season, one of the best if not the best team in the LaLiga this season they weren’t so much but lately they’ve been really good. They’ve lost this one of last eight to Atlético Madrid also and they’ve won each of the last three including a win against Barcelona. So they found the good form and their difference is not that good though they considered of the last 10 matches and they’re on an eight and two round to the both score. So yeah I do see a two, one type of situation. Three, one I have Rayo Vallecano and both plus 375 a huge prize is the second of my props and Rayo Vallecano team total over one and a half.
But the safest way I think don’t complicate it, don’t look for bad bloods and anything. I think Rayo Vallecano are going to win this one Espanyol have been just horrible. They proceeded two plus goals in nine of last 11 matches. They’ve kept clean seats only against Getafe and [inaudible 00:30:16] on the road. Espanyol two plus goals in seven of last eight and Rayo having scoring two plus goals in five of last eight home matches. They only fail to score against Sevilla, Atlético in Bilbao who are good teams with solid defenses. So yes we have a very good homeside that are looking to steal a spot to Europe and Espanyol who are looking to save themselves. I think Rayo are the better side. The stats says, so the motivation of their starting striker probably says so. So we’re going to have to go with homeside here.
Flash:
Yeah, I like three or four of them bets myself. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Everything points to the homeside. If you get done then you’re going to get done. You’re going to be in good company because both Paco and Pavlos are both gone for Rayo money line at plus 115. Remember it’s plus 120 for Rayo to score twice. You can go with Rayo and both teams to score at 375 and you’ve also got the added advantage of having an any time scorer Thomas at plus 220. Let’s move on to the next game because I’m going to be a little bit controversial. I’ve got Atlético Madrid minus 265. I think they win the game Osasuna plus 725. Osasuna a minus 115 not to score but I think Atlético score twice and so did a book.
So I was looking at all these numbers and they’re minus 190, okay. Minus 190 for Atlético not to score… Oh, sorry for Atlético to score twice. So Atlético minus one and a half so they win by two clear goals is that plus money plus 110. So I’m almost getting double the value. Atlético, I don’t see Osasuna scoring. I see Atlético scoring twice, I’ve got it two nil, Pavlos.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, I think the price is an over-reaction to how Atlético have been doing lately. They were firing, they scored 13 goals leading to the last week’s loss to Elche, one nil loss. Why did I get… I wasn’t even involved in that much but as soon as you guys were discussing about it in the previous show I just looked at the stats and they made sense but nothing makes sense with Elche lately. So yeah I think this is a bounce back spot for Atlético Madrid and the books know it. However, I wouldn’t be surprised by a one nil win by Atlético Madrid to be honest.
Osasuna, they’ve opened up lately in the first time of the season they were much more defensive, a lot of matches to the others but now especially after the final, they came out with an over. So this is a very confusing match for me. I immediately skipped it. I think Atlético win but I don’t know by how much, I don’t know. I don’t trust their differences of late. Maybe Osasuna can score one and complicate things. Yeah, this could be marginally between the under and the over two and a half goals. So whenever I see a situation like this, when nothing clear comes to mind, I just skip it. Skip it.
Flash:
Yes. It’s amazing that you picked like 75 games this week and yet this game you did not see clear. And as you’ll see when we get to the best bets at very very end of the show, I didn’t see very much clear but Paco, saw this as clear as day. There’s a gulf between the players. There’s a gulf between the reward and Osasuna or on the road against Atlético. Am I wrong?
Speaker 2:
Yeah, obviously you have to also count on what happened last week because Atlético wearing an amazing run of games having seized the second spot in LaLiga and suddenly they visit Elche and they come crashing down possibly against the worst rival they face the season. The worst team they faced this season a team already relegated many weeks ago.
Flash:
Speaker 3:
Maybe be the worst team we’ve seen in LaLiga for five years.
Speaker 2:
Well last season’s Levante for the first half was pretty awful. They came back in the final stretch of games but they were very awful in the first half of the competition. But yeah, they were stopped in their tracks. But because remember that the higher you finish in LaLiga obviously it has an impact in the level of financial rewards that you reap after the season has ended. And whereas for Real Madrid it doesn’t really matter if they finish second or third because they have plenty of money to put.
Speaker 3:
Atlético really need to finish second, third is fine because they are already in the Champions League, but finishing second would be perfect for [inaudible 00:35:03] because it would be a statement of his abilities after being questioned at the beginning of the season and also finishing above Real Madrid always a big reason to have a grin and smile for coach [inaudible 00:35:16] for Atlético fans. So if you add everything into the mix and also add the fact that Osasuna haven’t really been that impressive on the road, as Pavlo said, we could go for an upset for a draw plus 405. Osasuna incredible winner away plus 725 which is bonkers but Atlético should have this in the bag and the big question is if they’re going to do their traditional analytical game of scoring once and putting the game to sleep because that’s been more or less, as I said, a tradition for [inaudible 00:35:55]. Even though this season with Griezmann at the helm,
Flash:
They’ve been doing a lot better.
Speaker 2:
They have been scoring quite a lot which has made Atlético fans much happier. So I was looking at the handicap, which is another way to go even though it’s a bit risky for Atlético, but Atlético two nil, Atlético three nil, three one. A couple of goals for Atlético. Osasuna, I don’t really see them even though they have reasons to try to win this game because of that fight for that seventh place, I think that’s analytical far superior in this game.
Flash:
And the other one you got to look at is Osasuna they have another day they will have to go and win their home games and they’re not turning up here thinking that Atlético are on holiday and this is a game they can attack because no they’d have to wait and basically maybe wait for next week and let’s say little look, there it is plus 110 and Atlético minus one nil and correct score for me was two nil. Let’s move on. I think there’s a surprise coming here Valencia at plus 220, why or not plus 450 We will find out in a minute. Real Madrid at plus 115 is a trap draw plus 270 would be the way that I would edge or I’d go Valencia… Oh, minus 135 at Valencia at home is just no good for double chance. Under over two and a half goals with the under being at plus 110. Paco, you are Valencia’s favorite and number one son, I think you could get something out of this game but I don’t see over two and a half goals.
Speaker 2:
I have traditionally tried to use my jinxing abilities as much as I can. Whenever Valencia play
Flash:
We put the records back up. You’ve done that really well so don’t worry about that.
Speaker 2:
And I would sure love to do something which allowed Valencia to pick up the three points in this game.
Flash:
Yes,
Speaker 2:
But last night’s result, scoreline really is going to have an impact on this Valencia, Real Madrid game because I think that Real Madrid are going to bounce back guns blazing and going to try to make a statement in this game after they got thrashed against Manchester City, they had no chance they looked hapless in their visit to the city of Manchester Stadium. Visiting Mestalla is always a big motivation for Real Madrid because it’s been traditionally a ground where they faced many, many hardships in the past. And remember that Valencia, even though I think they have already 90% of the salvation in the bag after their win last week with agony in the last few minutes with a youth academy player scoring in the 88 minutes against Celta, Valencia have to win this game.
They need to try to win this game or the one against Mallorca obviously against Espanyol at home. They need to get to 40 points, 41 points as quickly as possible because if not many weird things happen in the last two, three games every single season and they might believe that they are already saved and be dragged down once again in the final two games and that would be trouble for Valencia. So Valencia a hundred percent motivated, they’re also going to celebrate or something like that. The centenary of Mestalla as a ground.
Flash:
Nice.
Speaker 2:
Which is also another reason for trying to-
Flash:
Speaker 3:
It’s looking a hundred years old doesn’t it?
Speaker 2:
Yeah, well Mestalla lately… And I love the ground, I’ve been a fan many years and also I’ve been a season pass holder for 25 plus years. The ground is falling to pieces. Valencia should spend some money trying to refurbish or try to get the ground once again cleaner and nicer looking but regardless of that it’s an amazing… It’s a cathedral of football over here in Spain. So-
Flash:
Speaker 3:
There you go.
Speaker 2:
I think the game is going to be amazing. I think we are going to have those… I’m not going to talk about nights because the game is 6:30 in the evening, but one of those games which might have thrills from the beginning till the end, but Real Madrid having many, many reasons to deliver a big blow, especially to all the haters who suddenly have popped up from the ground, from the cave coming up the cave after they got knocked out of the Champions League. And that’s why I went… Whenever I see Real Madrid with a plus money line, you always have to check that out because Real Madrid, Barce, Atlético, even with plus in their money lines are too tasty to avoid.
Flash:
Okay I left them well alone Pavlos because I thought they looked leggy, I thought they looked mentally tired and when you identify mentally tired players, they’re giving the ball away in normal situations that they don’t do. And I see them at least a yard and a half short mentally I don’t fancy, I know Paco double jinx in so really take it with a pinch of salt. He so much wants Valencia to win this game. I think Valencia do get something out of this game and I do see it being under and I think the draws are under at blues 270 just because I think Real Madrid don’t care, they’re in Champions League, they can’t win. That’s it for me. Anyone who’s got a knock won’t play. I think Valencia gets something.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, maybe because this hasn’t been an easy trip for [inaudible 00:41:37] in recent years. They’ve won just two of the last eight matches in Valencia there’s a 10 and own run to the both score between the two sides in Valencia and nine and one to the over two and a half goals. So essentially nine of the last 10 matches between the two sides in this venue had both of them to score and over two and a half goals and Real Madrid wants two of them. So again, I take those historical records very much into consideration because no matter what happens in any given season, no matter what the situation, any teams in, sometimes in some match ups you just have to go with the history. So the history says goals and I do see a lot of them because as you guys said, Real Madrid they certainly want to give answers.
Losing four to nil, there is got to be a lot of chirping around the league and players these days and especially younger generations, they pay a lot of attention to the social media. So even if it rotates, I think it’s going to be a good sign because younger players are going to be given minutes and they’re going to be fired up to acclaim their spot for next season because I think there’s going to be some changes in Real Madrid. I mean I can’t bear to see them with [inaudible 00:42:55] back anymore. That midfield is already starting to be vault with Camavinga who by the way is a left back now and [inaudible 00:43:05]. So I think there’s going to be some changes in Real Madrid and whoever’s in the squad and is probably going to be given moments and chances. I think they’re going to want to sign and Valencia they’re in the battle of their lives.
Speaker 3:
So it all screams for goals in this match and if I had to bet something, I might have some fun with correct scores because they’re usually one nil… Not one nil sorry, 2/1, three ones. That’s usually their correct scores. So that’s where I’m going with this one. I don’t have an official play but this looks like gold.
Flash:
Okay, the big one is here, both of you. I think that if you’re going to bring players in, you need to be battle hardened Mestalla is not an easy place to go and play because again it’s Valencia play up to their opponents as well as they play down to the draws and that’s why we’ve lost so many units trusting Valencia against bad teams. But then the numbers tell you, let me just repeat, I don’t need the producer to put the numbers back up. Valencia are plus 220 to beat Real Madrid. They’re minus 135 double chance six to eight weeks ago they would’ve been plus 155 double chance and plus 450 to win the game. That tells you we’re not getting any value to being art because the books are taking a really defensive position. Now obviously now we’re going to stick up the official pick because our teammate is double hexing himself by going with Madrid of money line plus 115.
Anyone who’s seen this for the first time, Paco does not want to win this bet, okay? But if Madrid win it looks like he was right, okay? Whereas he does this, it’s almost like he pays the football in gods a hundred dollars or a hundred euros for Valencia to win. That’s that. That’s it in his… You heard it, it’s his church, it’s his cathedral. The Mestalla is somewhere he goes to pray but he pays for it as well. Okay, let’s move on to the final game because we talk about the church and the cathedrals. Well this is a game that we look out for in July and August when the fixtures come out because it’s card central Sevilla versus Real Madrid, it’s a local derby, they do not like each other and I think that would be an understatement.
The drawer is at plus 235. The under over is two and a half with the over being plus 105 Sevilla, plus 130. That’s mainly because they’re in the semi-final action in the Europa League second leg but [inaudible 00:45:41] plus 220 can’t split it but I know Pavlos this is going to be a war.
Speaker 3:
This is one of the… As you said, one of the most expected derby for me personally because I always bet on the card. This is so [inaudible 00:46:00]. It’s very… What Sorry,
Flash:
You’ve got to do it, you got to do it. You look for these games going first of all goals because it can go right out. It could be like a five three because they just don’t care. They just want to beat the other team.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, yeah there’s a lot of… Even if one team is isn’t going for anything and the other one is facing allegation, they’re going to want to beat them. That’s the type of derby this is because sometimes you see derbys or not derbys actually you see matchups where there is an indifferent team at the middle of the standing say from allegation, not really, they can’t really go up and they face a team who is facing relegation and they just let it slide. They let them win or they give them a draw point. Sometimes this happen because next season you might need points and then Getafe saved you last season so you now have to save them. So sometimes it goes like this but this is the exact opposite. They surely want to destroy, Sevilla want to destroy Betis chances for the Europa League, which are… It’s really tough to do.
Betis are going to… Sevilla back from the dead, literally back from the dead and now chasing a top seven finish, they surely… I think this more [inaudible 00:47:14] the other than doing something good for yourself type of situation. So I see cards here. Historically these matches have a lot of cards. The reverse picture earlier in the season had 12 cards and three reds in 20… Last season there were nine, eight, and five cards because they also played in the Copa already the match with five cards had also one red card and two seasons ago there were eight and seven cards. So I’ll take the over six and a half cards and of course if there’s a yellow, a yellow and a red in the same player that count for three cards. So I also do believe of course with bet is getting red cards in almost every month… The season. The red card is also something to look at, but I think the over six and a half is just a very easy way to go about this.
Flash:
And if anyone hasn’t watched this game, please stick it on and turn the volume up and hopefully they take and do the transmission with 20 minutes early because you’ll then feel the urge to go to BetUs and bet on the bookings. Because honestly the fans should be given yellows. It is absolutely, it’s like a firecracker and it goes off an hour early. Paco, this is one of those that they do not like each other.
Speaker 2:
Obviously not, it’s grand possibly the rowdiest fussiest game in Spain, especially in the last couple of seasons as both of them have been battling for similar goals every single year and watching the odds as Sevilla are now battling Juve, no goals in the last seconds of the first halves so far. I think that two months ago you put Valencia’s example a couple of minutes ago, two months ago, the odds for this game would’ve been far more in favor of Betis rather than Sevilla. Yes because they were in shambles fighting for relegation, you were under Sampaoli, they were having a rough time, but Mendilibar came in and suddenly Sevilla are both fighting for reaching that final of the Europa League and at the same time they are so close, so close to European spots, which is amazing, incredible.
And that’s why Sevilla are the favorites and also the home advantage whenever Sevilla play at their home turf in San Tijuana, as you said, the atmosphere is going to be buzzing from two hours or three hours before the game, half hour before the game with the stadium already packed full house and whenever the teams come out, all of them chanting the anthem without any music, all of them are chanting a Capella, which is one of the most amazing moments in Spanish football.
And later the game itself potentially a bloodbath once again because these games tend to be quite rowdy. Betis aren’t having really much luck this season with the red cards and I think those have hobbled their chances of getting much more. They’re fighting for European spots but there was a moment at the beginning of the season when they had the chance to squeeze into fourth place but it fell through, it didn’t work out and the last stretch of the year is becoming, I would say a bit tedious for Betis. Whereas for Sevilla they have everything to play for. They have that kind of motivation. The flow of Sevilla is very different to what is happening at Betis.
So yeah, Sevilla plus 130 would be one of my picks even though I didn’t go with this game. Goals both to score over 2.5. I don’t know, many things happening. Cards obviously, but you shouldn’t expect a nil nil. Definitely, that’s the only thing I can say about this game. No scoreless teams in this game because I think they’re going to go for it. This is the game which gives bragging rights for the rest of the year for both Sevilla’s and Betis’s fans.
Flash:
And players, and players.
Speaker 2:
And players.
Flash:
And players score.
Speaker 2:
Speaker 3:
Obviously.
Flash:
If a Sevilla player scores against Betis or a Betis player scores against Sevilla, he is never ever going to have to buy a drink again in his local.
Speaker 2:
City. Yes.
Flash:
Yeah, exactly. Just for the sake of sticking the ball in the back of the net, let’s have a little look at the official picks, but let me also just give you a little bit more meat on the bone that when you actually bet for cards in a game like this, you end up shouting at the television, oh that’s going to be a yellow, it’s brilliant and it’s still good. I did it yesterday in Real Madrid game, Man city, but this game you’ve got like 25, 30,000 fans echoing what you are shouting. So just be part of it. Just enjoy the occasion over six and a half guards minus 125.
Go and fill your boots. Don’t care about goals, don’t care about who wins. But we do care about yellow and red. Okay Q and A time, which obviously there’s not many but I will give you an opportunity to type if you’ve got any games. Obviously we’ve covered all the games this week. So the next question will probably be a game from next week. First of all, let’s have a little look at the best bets please because so I’ve got so much to read. Okay, let’s start off, let me get… I’ll get out of the way. Getafe and Elche both teams score an over two and a half goals are plus 200. Atlético minus 1.5 at 110 Paco, Villarreal an over two and half at plus 250. Rayo money line at plus 115 and then his donation to the gods, Real Madrid money line at plus 115. And if you’re just joining us they are playing Valencia, so obviously he’s hoping for Valencia three-
Speaker 2:
Sacrifice.
Flash:
Exactly that, it’s a sacrifice but it’s humane way to do it. The only person that often gets hurt it’s his pocket. Almería, Mallorca both teams to score at minus 120. Getafe an under three and a half is at minus 120. So we both want a two one maybe Getafe win there. First half Sociedad team total over no 0.5. So just a score in the first half plus 160. Rayo money line at plus 115 Looks like a great bet there. There is a couple of other ways you can play that game. Rayo to score twice at plus 120. Thomas to score at any time plus 220 or you could go with Rayo to win and both teams to score. I mean that was around plus 380 and the last one Sevilla and Betis over six and a half cards minus 125. The most disappointing thing about that is it wasn’t a banker Pavlos.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, that’s true. But I don’t do bankers with cards because we’ve seen some really weird stuff and I don’t want to get caught up in that. It’s just a normal bet, wait for the knives to come out.
Flash:
Okay, talking the knives coming out JR he’s been as quiet as a mouse. He says, “Flash, you know damn well, Atlético isn’t a good bet to beat Osasuna, they couldn’t even beat Elche last weekend.” They were sitting second in the league JR. They’re entitled to have a bad day and when you have a bad day at the office… You know what a winner does, he comes back in the next day as if it didn’t happen and he puts the rights and wrongs back the right way, okay? Like I am doing to you. So get back in your box and I’ll see you tomorrow for Bundesliga. Pavlos, Good luck with the cards, Paco, come on Valencia, and from everyone at BetUS have a great weekend. We’re looking forward to it. Just another three weeks to go. So make sure you enjoy it because you’ll miss me when you’re gone. Ciao.
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