Flash:
Welcome to the BetUS soccer channel. I’m Flash, and it’s La Liga Show. It’s Matchday 36. We know that Real Madrid are just coasting towards the Champions League final, but there’s other teams that are just trying to disappoint us at the moment. We think we got a handle on them. We think they’re going to score goals. And well, I would say that they’re already on the beach, but I think some of them have been like that for absolutely months.
Flash:
Now, we are America’s favorite sportsbook, so I’d like to invite you to subscribe. We need less than 50 to get to 5,000, which would be a massive feat. Also, I’d like you to ring the bell, and ring the bell means that you’ll never miss any content again because we will notify you if there’s a change of schedule, if there’s a change of time, and also if there’s another new program being added.
Flash:
If you’re on social media then please follow @BetUSSoccer. @BetUSSoccer for any updates, any team lineups or any information that you may need to know. I’ve got Pavlos, who’s been on an unbelievable run over 24 units, to be honest. Roman from La Liga lowdown is his Batman, Robin, or whichever one you want to call it.
Flash:
And I’m just a presenter in the middle who’s trying to keep my head above water. Remember to get yourselves in the chat. We do like your knowledge, and it’s getting better week by week. There will be a Q&A at the end. Admittedly, we don’t normally have much of a Q&A on La Liga because we seem to cover the angles. We’ve got seven games to cover. Let’s give Pavlos a little pat on the back because Pavlos, another sweep.
Pavlos:
Another sweep. Yeah. Sometimes I just look at all the matches, make three picks without a lot of effort, and then I look at the numbers and they just align with what I picked. So some weeks it’s just too obvious for me. This week was really tough in terms of Soccer betting so I didn’t make a lot of picks, but maybe you guys can help me in one of my thoughts. But we’ll discuss it later in the show.
Flash:
Okay. Roman, we was a little bit disappointed with a few of the teams, not just their results, but their performance as well because we was expecting a little bit better, to be honest.
Roman:
Yeah. As I said, last Thursday, it’s bit unpredictable. These last few match days results we’re not really expecting are taking place. For example, that 6-2 from Granada at Mallorca stadium, nobody would’ve given a single cent that that was going to ever happen. And it was an absolute thrashing by Granada. And we’re talking about two sides which are fighting for relegation.
Roman:
So Mallorca had a lot in stake, but they were just incapable of stopping that tidal wave of goals that Granada brought to their stadium. And then we also saw the awkward results with Cadiz smashing Elche, with Celta smashing Alaves. It’s the stage of the season where it’s a bit harder because some teams have given up because they don’t fight for anything else.
Roman:
And others are really desperate, but at the same time that desperation sometimes prove to be a big problem for them and they don’t get the results you expect. So yeah, it’s a bit tricky, but the opposite of problems, I do see some value for this match day, so hopefully we can make something out of it.
Flash:
Yeah. I don’t think there’s a lot to split between the two teams. So we may be a little bit creative. I’ve used that word already for a midweek card and I’m not shy in using it again. Let’s have a little look at the first game because the first game up is a very, very tight affair. It’s Valencia versus Real Betis. Valencia at +275, Betis are +100. That goes into trap or gift category.
Flash:
Over two and half goals is at -105, the under two and half is his favorite at -115, and the draw is a big runner here, I believe, at +255. Pavlos, draw. Valencia versus Betis at +255?
Pavlos:
Yeah. Could be. Valencia, they truly want to get some revenge about the lost final, about the fact that they also lost 4 to 1 earlier in the season. I’m not so sure which Valencia we’re going to see here. Maybe they’ve given up already, maybe they’re already packing for their summer vacations, but I still do believe that they’ll try to get some revenge against Betis and maybe play party pooper on Betis’s chances.
Pavlos:
Even though they’re slim, Betis, they’re sitting six points behind Atletico Madrid. Three matches to go. Maybe Atletico Madrid can slip up and Betis can move in the top four and steal a Champions League ticket, because they already have a Europa League ticket for next season. So I try to look at goals here, recent trends point towards the under.
Pavlos:
Then I looked at how these two teams have played together recently and that was the over. So I don’t know. It’s a quite a weird match to predict, for me at least. But I wouldn’t be surprised … Both teams they played a lot of matches this season, especially Betis, so at this point maybe they’re tired. Maybe they just want to get maybe a slow win. This looks like a match with not too many goals in it, to be honest.
Flash:
Yeah. I like the under, and if you want to be really clever about it, Roman, I like the nil-nil, 1-1. I think I’m going to probably go with a draw to be honest.
Roman:
It could be. It could be. Like Pavlos, in one way you kind of feel like it’s going to be under, but another way it kind of feels like we might see more than a couple of goals. Because if we look at the Copa Del Ray game, both teams were going back and forth, back and forth. And again Betis is a team that likes to have to ball, but they like to go forward a lot.
Roman:
And I think a similar game that took place already against Barca the other day, where they had some really good chances. And there was also back and forth game with opportunities in both ends. And I think Valencia adapt quite well to that style of play because they like to counter, they don’t really like to dominate. They like to rob the ball, take the ball and go quickly and try and find some opportunities.
Roman:
Although they do have a couple of suspensions, important ones, in terms of Gaya and Guillamon who are suspended and not being able to play. And we don’t know if Paulista is going to make it and he’s their most important defender. And it’s true that Betis did lose Bravo in that game against Barca. He got injured and he’s been starting for them mostly.
Roman:
But Rui Silva honestly came on and he was doing really well. So if he can continue that form it’s going to be fine for Betis. So for me was I was a bit undecided whether unders or whether we will see goals. And honestly, I wouldn’t discard both teams to score for me. I think that’s a way that someone could go.
Flash:
Yeah. 1-1. The way that these two sides set up, there’s no urgency about them.
Roman:
Well, Betis a bit more maybe.
Flash:
Yeah. Well, that’s what I was going to say to you, that gun to your head, if you had to pick someone on the money line, would it be Betis or can you not trust them?
Roman:
I think I would because this is their last shot at Champions League, and if they can’t beat Valencia with important players not available, it’s a problem.
Flash:
Yeah. But that’s exactly why you can put the official picks up because I’ve got two of them here. And it’s a little bit of a safety catch for me because I think this is a draw, but I’ve gone with the under two and a half at -115 because I think if Betis win it’s 1-0. And the thing is, if you need a win, the worst side that I can think about going against is Valencia because they don’t come out their holes, especially when they’ve got players missing.
Flash:
And the players missing are normally the ones that pull them forward. So if you take that away, they’re going to be even more reserved. So for me it’s under two and half at -115, and I’ve got draw or +255. I’m really going for it this week because it’s at that stage of the season where I’m either going to be level at the end of the year, or I’m going to be up and chasing Pavlos.
Flash:
Okay, let’s go for game number two. I was quite surprised this game was on here because I thought it was one way or nothing. It’s Granada versus Athletic Club. And Granada are +290, Athletic Club is +100. Athletic Club at home are really, really strong. Granada at home, that’s how they used to just stay in La Liga. The over two and a half is at +100.
Flash:
Now, do you see both team scoring and overs here, Pavlos? Again, the draw’s around +245, which is low, but Granada just to score is -205. That tells you that they’re looking at both teams to score.
Pavlos:
Yeah. Yeah, for sure. This is the type of situation where Bilbao is sitting eighth in the standings, just one point behind Villa Real, four points behind the Real Sociedad with three more matches to go. So they’re eyeing that European ticket for next season and of course they’re going to be heavily interested, and the draw is just not good enough for them here. So they’re probably going to, at some point if not from the start they’re going to go in front and search for a goal.
Pavlos:
Of course they went scoreless against Valencia the other day, but they’ve been scoring. In the second half of the season they’ve really improved in the offense of course on the road. They’ve had some bad results against Betis, Valencia and Barcelona where they didn’t score, but these are all good solid, I’d say, defenses. Well, Granada are far from it.
Pavlos:
And Granada, of course, they’re sitting just two points above the relegation zone so they obviously need some points here. If they can take a win, it’s going to be huge, probably going to save them. But even a draw here could be catastrophic for Granada depending on what Mallorca and Levante do in their own matches, and even Cardiff against Real Sociedad.
Pavlos:
So I think that this is really a match where both teams are going to get on the board. Granada scored six against the Mallorca the other day. They’ve been scoring a lot of goals. They scored twice against Sevilla, they scored against all the big teams. So I believe that this is a match with two heavily interested teams. Also keep in mind that the reverse fixture was a 2-2 draw at Bilbao.
Pavlos:
So it’s not easy to score two goals against Bilbao wherever, but especially at Bilbao. So I think this is the best value of the week and both teams will score here.
Flash:
Okay. Roman, do we see the Athletic Club go there and just lock up shop because they are so good when they do that, but they have threats on the break as well. But Granada, they could really just give themselves an absolute easy ride going into the end of the season by putting everything into this game and coming away with three points.
Roman:
Yeah. Seeing their form since Karanka took over, I just wouldn’t bet against them in this match. I think that 6-2 was an amazing result for them. It’s going to give them a lot of fresh air in terms of trying to avoid drowning down in the bottom. And also they got two important draws before that, one of them against Atletico Madrid.
Roman:
So I think the team has really clicked with this new manager and they are pretty dangerous. And Athletic Club, of course, they’ve been busy and they’re still fighting actually for European spots. They’re one point away from Villarreal, so a win for them would be very important. Their main problem is they have quite a few setbacks in defense, but mostly second line players so I don’t think that should affect them too much.
Roman:
So I wouldn’t discard both teams to score, I think is a likely outcome. Because Granada they’re going to want to get a win at home against Athletic Club where they’ve won the last two games at home, and Athletic Club we know that they need to get the points to qualify for European position. So Pavlos’ value I think is quite reasonable there.
Flash:
Yeah. It’s more than reasonable because it’s probably the likely outcome. I can see both teams win in. I can see both teams scoring. I can also see the draw, but I think the draw will not be 0-0. So Pavlos, what is the official pick here? Because I mean, Granada +200 and something it’s like crazy. Both teams score of -115 seems a bit of a giveaway there, Pavlos, but you are on such a role.
Flash:
Let’s go to game number three because it’s me that surprises me here because Alaves versus Espanyol, no one would expect that. It’s Alaves at +110, Espanyol at +245. Hardly all season anyone has actually gone for either of these two on the money line. So you look to the bottom right and there is the draw at +255. I cannot pick a winner here.
Flash:
Over two and a half is at +100. I think that this is another game that could be 0-0 or 1-1, Roman.
Roman:
Yeah, it could be. Given the situation on Alves then I would’ve expected a better result. For example, last week against Celta Vigo, that 4-0 result was pretty harsh. And I don’t know how they’re going to react after that, whether it’s going to be a good performance or they just maybe now feel completely out of their depth and they can’t react soon enough to save themselves. So I think it’s going to be a cagey game, as you said.
Roman:
I think a draw is a very likely outcome. I was really tempted for a draw half time, for example, because both teams tend to score in the second half if I’m not mistaken. And Espanyol have been also very poor. They’re not really fighting for anything mathematically. I think they can still get relegated, but it’s very, very unlikely case scenario.
Roman:
And also they probably will have Raul de Tomas starting again because he missed, well, he didn’t miss the last match but he did start off the bench because apparently there was a little fight with the manager after that game at the Berna with Real Madrid where Espanyol got thrashed. And we know that Raul de Tomas comes from Real Madrid and apparently his attitude wasn’t the best facing this game and his ex team.
Roman:
So that’s why he got kind of punished. But I think he will start this time and we know that he’s fundamental for this team. So having him from the start will definitely give Espanyol a push. But I don’t see too many goals, and honestly, I can’t really pick a winner. I think, as you said, a draw is a very good pick.
Flash:
Pavlos, was this game on your radar for an under, because it’s like -120 for under two and half. I can’t really see three goals here.
Pavlos:
Yeah. No way. No way for three goals. I mean, Espanol on the road, really weak, just one win in 17 matches, one of the worst away offenses, just 14 goals in 17 matches in Alaves. They know that they should probably play some defense here. If they can play just a bit of good defense they can probably keep Espanyol at bay here. And here’s the thing with Alaves, they’re sitting at the bottom spot with 28 points.
Pavlos:
So they still can mathematically save the season. If they win at Espanyol, then their last two matches are against … Sorry, I’m looking at the Espanyol here. Alaves. So if they beat Espanyol, the last two matches are against Lavante and Cardiff, who are both two teams that are actually in that relegation battle. So maybe Alaves could save the season, but they need to win here. If they score a goal, they’re probably going to park the bus and just hold that three point.
Pavlos:
So definitely looks like an under to me, but yeah, draw would be nice for Espanyol because Espanyol are eight points above the relegation zone. So a draw here could pretty much save their season. They’re mathematically not going to be relegated. So yeah, I could see a draw here, but the under is probably the best value here.
Flash:
Okay. The under at, I think it was -120 for the under two and a half. I was expecting this game to actually be two. I thought it was going to be two would be a push. Anyway, let’s have a little look at the official pick because I am on my own here, but I’m on my own because I just thought it was one of them games where as much as you looked, you could not split them.
Flash:
So draw at + 255. I’ll go to a bet. The next game on the cards is another game where I did get involved and then I had to wipe it because I was having too many. It’s Osasuna versus Getafe. And I don’t want to give you the money line straight away. I want to give you the under, over, and here it is too. The over is at plus money.
Flash:
Osasuna at +155, Getafe at +220. Looks like a 0-0. 1-1. The draw is under 200. It was +210, it’s moved 15 cents down. So everyone is seeing this game, Osasuna, Getafe just end of season both draw 0-0. What about Getafe? +160 not to score, Osasuna +200 not to score. Now, if you don’t believe that both teams are going to score, you can bet both of them. Pavlos.
Pavlos:
Yeah. Yeah. I mean five, what is it? Three of their last five matches between two sides have been goalless draws. The other two matches were 1-0 wins for Getafe at home. So historically these two teams they’re either afraid of each other or play very, very carefully. And now Osasuna, they still can theoretically maybe challenge one of the European spots, but they haven’t been showing a lot of grit lately.
Pavlos:
Goalless draw against … Sorry, 1-1 draw against Espanyol, 1-1 draw against Elche. So I’m really not sure where to go this much, especially since both teams they actually need the point. And it’s not those teams that are going to go out and score two, three goals. Whoever scores the first goal, if anybody scores the first goal, they’re probably going to park the bus if it’s one of those situations.
Pavlos:
So taking any kind of under makes sense, the draw also makes sense. It’s just a tough match between two teams who are looking for different things. But yeah, maybe Getafe would be okay with a draw point, I believe. Osasuna, not so much. They probably want to see out their chances for a top seven finish.
Flash:
Roman, we’ve worked long enough, you and I. This was +215, it’s now +195 on the draw. I made a living out telling people don’t look at any other number, this is going to be a draw. But when you’re getting -125 for being under two as well, it brings in a nice profit of it just being 1-0.
Roman:
Yeah. It’s either going to be 0-0 or 1-0, I think that. Those are the outcomes that have taken place the last five or six games. 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, it’s like a pattern, it keeps repeating itself. And you look at those two teams and Getafe are a team that like to defend. Of course they started off really bad this season. They were awful, but with Quique Sánchez Flores in charge coming halfway through the season, he’s really ordered that defense a lot.
Roman:
So again, they are strong defensively. And Osasuna, they have improved a bit of attack, but also they are quite organized at the back and playing at home. I think it’s going to be another cagey game. I think Getafe need the points more than or Osasuna do because Osasuna can still make it, but it’s super unlikely. With three games left they would have to depend on other teams losing a lot.
Roman:
And I don’t think that’s fully going to happen, but of course they’re going to want to compete anyway. So I mean, I think it’s going to be another of those cagey games between these two sides and honestly, yeah, I would look at unders or draws. That’s definitely the way to go, I think.
Flash:
Okay. Just to let … Where is he? Michael Maceda, obviously a big supporter of ours, I’ve read what you’ve said. We will get to it. You know the score, I’ll do the questions and answers at the end. So please just be patient and we will get to that. Let’s have a little look at the official pick because as I say, I was all over the draw here.
Flash:
215 down to +1 95. It’s now under two. For Roman at -125 brings in a 1-0. Even a freaky 2-0 is a push, pal. I think every man is stocked expecting this to be 0-0 and at + 195 the books also. Remember it’s +200 for Osasuna not to score, and Getafe is at +160. Could bet on both and get a worst case scenario of a nice little 60 cents on your money.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s move on to the next game, because this is a team that have really bugged me this year. I’ve been so high on them over the last five, six, seven years. But Sevilla versus Mallorca. Sevilla -155. This should be like -220, but they’ve been so disappointed this year and unpredictable and yet they’re still sitting up on the top table.
Flash:
Mallorca get all their points at home. They score twice and then let in six. So we don’t know what Mallorca’s turning up, but Mallorca are at +475. I thought that’d be +775. Pavlos, Sevilla, are they just in transition and this is a season where even though they’ve been above average they’ve been nowhere near where they need to be?
Pavlos:
Yeah. I think that Europa League beat threw them off because they probably spent too much energy and focus on that. And even after they were eliminated, they haven’t been all that good. They’ve won just two of their seven matches since that/ And they weren’t actually easy wins. I mean, they beat Levante and Granada and they conceded a couple of goals in both matches.
Pavlos:
And in fact they’ve only kept just one clean seat in their last, I don’t know, like eight or nine matches across all competitions. And they conceded against Cardiff, Levante. Everybody scores against them. Sp that defensive prowess has kind of went away in these final matches [inaudible 00:20:51].
Flash:
What do you think of that, Pavlos? Why’d you say that? Because normally you’d say, “Oh, they’ve only let in one in the last eight games,” rather than, “They’ve only kept one clean sheet.” It’s the opposite end of the spectrum.
Pavlos:
Well, I think they’re just … Since they couldn’t really challenge the title, since they really couldn’t challenge the Europa League, since they were eliminated from the Copa Del Ray, they’re just waiting for the season to be over. To be honest, without spending too much, they don’t even need to win. Now they’re, what is it, seven points ahead of Betis.
Pavlos:
So they’re willing to mess up royally to finish fifth. So I don’t trust this Sevilla side at this stage of the season, especially against Mallorca who just terrible, horrible on the road. Just horrible on the road. And they conceded six goals to Granada another the other day. So I could see Sevilla scoring multiple goals against them easily.
Pavlos:
But I wouldn’t be surprised if Mallorca maybe somehow scored here. It’s like a do or die for them. They’re probably going to have to go out and score. So yeah, I could see some type of over here, but I guess Sevilla can score easily two or three goals, maybe four against this horrible, horrible Mallorca difference.
Flash:
Yeah. Roman, the one thing that alarms me is when we have a look at these figures, again, Sevilla -1 yesterday was +100. I know it was Sunday, I know the people have their days off, but it’s now +120. I was thinking that Sevilla -1 would have been minus -115 after they’d seen it at + 100, but it’s gone 20% in the other way. It’s now starting to get either scary or unbelievable value.
Roman:
I think it’s becoming really good value because it’s true that Sevilla haven’t really performed their second half of the season. They’ve struggled towards the end. Remember we were talking about them as contenders to the league at one point, but then they kind of lost all that energy, all that capacity going forward. And honestly Lopetegui has really struggled to find solutions despite having a pretty good squad.
Roman:
But despite all of that, and despite being worse than Villarreal last week, and I still think that at home against Mallorca, as Pablo said, they should get the win. Sevilla have scored in 94% of their home games and Mallorca have scored only in 6% of their away game. So this proves that Sevilla should win because they’re going to score.
Roman:
And doesn’t matter whether Mallorca scores or not, I think Sevilla will score at least one or two more than them. So honestly, I think that makes sense to go for Sevilla and add some goals onto that. Or even the -1 that you mentioned is also good value because Mallorca after that 26 how do you recover from that? They weren’t playing Madrid, they weren’t playing Barca or Athletic, they were playing Granada.
Roman:
How do you recover from the 6-2? I don’t know. I think Mallorca are really doomed this season, and I feel like they’re going to go down.
Flash:
Yeah. And the bigger one, and this is obviously something that you really do understand if you actually played the game and you sat in a dressing room, it was draw at half time. So you’ve obviously had your instructions, you’ve gone out there and gone, “Right. Okay. This is what we got to do to win the game.” 20 minutes later you’re like 4-1 down. You’re like, “Whoa, what’s going on here?”
Flash:
So they’re the questions that you then start looking over to the bench and your leader is like, “You’ve just conceded six.” So it’s not as if like they got off to a disaster start and it was all uphill. They would’ve took draw half time prior to the game, and then knowing that they can go strong at home second half. Official picks.
Flash:
Because again, Michael Maceda says, “Can’t believe we actually thought they had a chance of winning La Liga.” Yeah, we all thought that because this is one of the strongest sides at back end of the season for the last five or six years. But it’s been the opposite this year. It’s been a bit funny, some of the European football this year.
Flash:
And I’m wondering if it’s on the back of what we’ve been through over the last two years off of the pitch. Sevilla, -1, +120, Sevilla, and over 1.5 at +100. So a nice little 3-0, 4-1, 3-1, we are all going to be happy. Now we’re going to go to the bottom of the card now because earlier on in the season we looked at this side and they did really well for us.
Flash:
But now they just, they are messing about. Rayo Vallecano versus the yellow submarine, which is Villarreal. Vallecano + 365, Villarreal -130. Wow, that would’ve been -210 a few weeks ago. Draw is at +280. The under, over is at two and a half with the under being at -115. Pavlos, these two are not even in the same league. When it comes to quality, Villarreal they must get a win here. And at -130 I’m thinking it’s a parlay piece.
Pavlos:
Yeah, true. Because Villarreal now that they’re done with the Champions League they really need to focus on getting some results at the end of the season, because they’re really, really close just to one point away from not playing European soccer next season. So it’s really, really going to be a disaster for the Villarreal side who have been quite impressive this season.
Pavlos:
And they really need the win and Vallecano don’t. So I know Vallecano they got a couple of draws, a couple of wins, really hard to beat lately, but their job is done, and they’re not the flashiest of teams. And their defense at home has been quite solid. They don’t really get destroyed by anyone. They’ve only conceded multiple goals on just a couple of occasions.
Pavlos:
But Villarreal they haven’t been very good on the road either, but this is a match where you just see what Villarreal want, they need it. See what Rayo want, they don’t need it. So you just automatically go to any type of bet for Villarreal. Just any type of bet is good here. I just don’t see them getting a draw. I don’t see them getting beat.
Pavlos:
But yeah, so getting Villarreal money, like Villarreal and under something, because I’m not really sure we’re going to pop out and score like five goals on this Vallecano side. So probably like 1-2, something like that. 2-1 or 2-0 win for Villarreal. I don’t see that many goals, but Villarreal just have to take this win.
Flash:
The biggest advantage for us looking at this game, Roman, is that Rayo Vallecano play exactly how Villarreal would love an opponent to play. They just go forward. They just bomb. And Villarreal can pick them off if they’re on a concentration day. Do you think both teams do score though, because otherwise Villarreal -1 is good, but Villarreal on both teams to score is a lot better.
Flash:
Look at Villarreal minus half at -130, but if you look at all the turnout lines, you’re looking at maybe Villarreal, I believe if they score twice they win. And over one and a half of Villarreal is at minus -110. Vallecano are -175. Everything tells me that this game’s going over two and half at -105 or Villarreal are guaranteed to win.
Roman:
Yeah, it’s possible. I’m going to go down I think the safer way, which would be a money line for Villarreal because after that really intense performance against Liverpool, especially that first half where they gave it everything, I wasn’t really sure if they’d have the energy to fight against Sevilla, but they were much better than Sevilla. They deserved the win.
Roman:
They were very unlucky at the end because the corner kick gave Sevilla the opportunity to get the draw, but they deserved the three points. And honestly, they still haven’t lost their hope for qualifying to Europa League because we’re talking about a team that won the Europa League and that just got to the Champions League semifinal.
Roman:
So I don’t really see them playing conference league. They’re not a conference league side. They need to get higher up in the standings and they need to qualify at least for the Europa League next season. And they’re going to go out for it, and I know it’s going to be that way because we saw it against Sevilla. Villarreal were really dominant, really generating, really dangerous.
Roman:
And I think against a team like Rayo, as you said, they like to go forward. They’re going to find those spaces. And even though we still don’t know whether it’s Danjuma or Gerard Moreno are going to be available, despite that they didn’t have them either the game against Sevilla and they were still very good going offensively.
Roman:
Lo Celso has been fantastic and they have Chukwueze who is also a very good player going forward. And we know that Parejo now midfield helps to generate a lot. So honestly, I’m not sure. I think it’s very likely that both teams get on the score sheet, but I think that at the end of the day Villarreal will get the win because they need it desperately and Rayo really aren’t fighting for anything at this stage.
Flash:
Yeah, totally agree. -1 for Villarreal. And by the way, Villarreal got in the Conference League. I’ll be looking at probably the only side that enters that Conference League from obviously the Premier League. Villarreal will probably be favorites from the word go, and I would have a piece of that in the features. Because no one joins the Conference League, do they?
Flash:
Does anyone come out of the Europa League and go into the Conference League or how does that work?
Roman:
I’m not sure actually. I don’t think so.
Flash:
Yeah, exactly. Europa don’t know. They just make it up as they go along. Just have a little look at the official pick here, because it’s got to be Villarreal or nothing surely. Let’s have a little look. Yep. Villarreal money line, -130. Let’s move on to the final game because polarizing this is, this is a really, really big game, but not for the champions.
Flash:
Real Madrid versus Levante. Real Madrid -195, -1 is at minus -130. Levante + 450. Are you kidding me? Normally Levante would be + 1150. So we’re getting a … You’re getting robbed dear. You should be 300% more or 200% more. But the total is where I think that we need to concentrate. Do we see four goals in this game?
Flash:
Because if we do it’s +105, if we do not see four, then it’s -125. It’s massive. Forget the draw. I don’t fancy Levante getting anything out of this game. But the team totals are also interesting because Levante to score twice is +200, or is +190. Roman, Real Madrid, Levante. Levante have been scoring goals. Real Madrid are obviously still going to be nursing any of their players that have little knocks to make sure that they’re ready for Paris at the end of the month.
Roman:
Yeah. We saw last game against Atletico Madrid where Ancelotti didn’t really mind whether it was a Derby and he didn’t really put the best players. We did see Kroos and we did see Casemiro, some of the good ones, but of course he left Benzema and [inaudible 00:31:28] et cetera to rest. But I do think they, at least Benzema, for example, should start because you don’t want your players to stay completely out of rhythm.
Roman:
You still want them to get minutes. And I’m sure that he won’t. Probably I think he will start this match. And honestly, if you look at both sides, they both love to score goals. It’s surprising to see that Levante, for example, being the second bottom team they’ve got 44 goals this season. I think they’re the sixth or seventh team with more goals this season and they’re right at the bottom.
Roman:
So it’s kind of crazy that they’re capable of going forward and generating a lot offensively. But then the problem is at the back. So I think that favors the fact that in this game we could see goals. And when I checked over three had pretty good value, and in case it doesn’t get there it’s a push. But I do think we will see goals because Levante can defend, Levante can score, Real Madrid can score. So that should be a good system for goals.
Flash:
Okay. I know the line’s moved. Pavlos, how do you see this game going? And as you are talking, I’m going to actually look up and see if I can guide everyone to betus.com on the alternate lines and see what the number is because it’s gone from three goals to three and a half. It’s a big move because then we only need three for a push, and four is just an absolute given.
Pavlos:
How about the combination of both teams to score over two and a half goals? Because when I look at the match, I said I don’t care about the stats. This is both teams to score from the get go. Levante or Real Madrid, the reverse picture was a 3-3 draw. Levante have scored in nine of their last 10 matches against Real Madrid.
Pavlos:
Don’t look now, but Levante have lost just one of their last four matches. They have two wins, one draw and one loss in this venue. And they’ve scored in all matches. They’ve scored exactly to goals actually in each of the last three trips here. And they’ve been scoring goals left and right, why not here as well? They’re fighting for their lives.
Pavlos:
Real Madrid are kind of loose now. They’re using different lineups of course. Let’s not actually downgrade because it’s Real Madrid, of course they have nice players. Even as the reserves, they’re probably better than Levante, and they probably want to showcase themselves either to Ancelotti or maybe get a transfer out.
Pavlos:
So it’s a match where Levante have to score, otherwise they might not make it out of the relegation zone. So starting from 1-1. I was actually worried about this ending as a 1-1 because I think I did the math and it’s probably not catastrophic for Levante to get one point here, but I have to definitely win their two remaining matches. And of course they need Granada and Mallorca to lose there.
Pavlos:
So in the fear of a 1-1 draw, I would just go with both teams to score. But it’s just -180, so I’m going to take the combo, both teams to score and over two and a half goals. When I saw it, it was at -125, but now I’m not sure what’s the updated price. But still I’m going to add this to my official place.
Flash:
Okay. I’ll give you a plus, sorry, a -125. You wish I’d give you +1 25. Let’s have a little look at the official peaks because I really don’t care about Madrid. They can go and get beat 27-0 for all I care as long as they turn up in Paris on the 28th of … What’s up, man?
Pavlos:
Roman, what’s up?
Roman:
I won’t take over 3.5 because it was over three when I checked. But over 3.5, I won’t take the risk.
Flash:
Okay. No worries. Well, I’ll find it for you and then I’ll find the over three, and then I will give that because … I can tell you now that if over 3.5 is at +105, over three will be at like -120, -125.
Roman:
Yeah. That was it.
Flash:
Exactly. Don’t worry. I’ve got your covered. Don’t worry about that. And I will put that on @BetUSSoccer on Twitter. That means you follow, that means you’ll get the winner. And Pavlos, what were you saying? Both teams are scoring over, yeah?
Pavlos:
Yeah. Yeah.
Flash:
And that’s at -125 as well. Okay. So I’ll get you both the … I’ll sort all the paperwork out. You just get yourselves to the brewery. You get yourselves to looking after Leland and watching football and I’ll just keep working all day. Any questions? There was a question earlier, but before we get there and you are enjoying this video, then please put the thumbs up, show of appreciation to Pavlos and to Roman.
Flash:
But also I’d like you to subscribe because if you haven’t and this is your first time, then feel welcome because we’ve got plenty coming up. We’re going to have the Europa League final, we’re going to have the Champions League final, and it’s going right down to the wire in both Serie A and the Premier League. Even though Milan and Manchester City are holding all the aces, sometimes the aces do get popped. Okay?
Flash:
Also ring the bell because ring the bell means that we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. And as I’ve just mentioned, if you are on Twitter, follow @BetUSSoccer. Okay. Quick questions. Derek Paris come in at the last minute. He must have come on as sub because he hasn’t said anything. Elche versus Atletico Madrid. Roman, why did you not go with that?
Roman:
I was tempted because Atletico did play very well against Real Madrid. I think they deserved a bit of a wider scoreline. They had some very good opportunities, But this season they’ve just been so irregular and I’m just worried that they would not perform at the same level against Elche. So at first I do think they are going to win and I think we’re going to see a few goals, maybe 1-0, maybe a 2-0, something like that. But I just can’t really trust Atletico, so I thought better stay away just in case.
Flash:
Okay. Pavlos, I’ve just remembered what Michael said he was here for, He was here to find out about Barcelona versus Celta.
Pavlos:
Barcelona versus Celta. When you look at Celta just run away. Run fast.
Flash:
Yeah. You can’t rely on one of the teams.
Pavlos:
No. I mean, Celta could win by 3-0 in some weird universe and it would be like a 3-3 draw. They did it earlier in the season. Barcelona could win by 6-0. This is one of the matches where I could see goals, but to be honest I’m kind of scared of Celta messing it up somehow. And I just stayed away from this match. Even though the history suggests that there’s a lot of goals here, I just don’t like it.
Flash:
No worries. Derek Paris also saying Sociedad versus Cadiz. Roman?
Roman:
After Sociedad’s result of the day and Cadiz winning, I don’t know. Because Cadiz are really desperate, even though Sociedad also needs the point because Villarreal are chasing them right down the bottom. So I don’t know. I just thought it was a bit tricky. Maybe a draw could come in here because Cadiz aren’t doing bad at all, and Real Sociedad are struggling a bit to get those goals.
Roman:
Although at home usually there are reliable, so maybe like a 1-0 or something like that could also come into play. So too many doubts in my mind basically.
Flash:
Yeah. First thing I thought was unders. They look like an unders.
Pavlos:
Yes.
Roman:
Yeah. Yeah.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because there might be a little bit of color on the left hand side. There you go. Pavlos’ only bet is a banker. Well, it was his only bet. And then he added Madrid and Levante, both teams to score over two and a half goals around the -125. Granada, Athletic Club, both teams score at -115, which is very good.
Flash:
It gets about 1.72 on the … 1.76 on the two units. For me, I think there’s draws and I think it’s unders. And Sevilla, they just, I can’t believe I’m getting more than the + 100 for them to just win the game by two clear goals at +120. We win by one, it’s a push. Roman’s got Real Madrid and Levante over three goals at -120, 125.
Flash:
Sevilla over one and a half at +100. Osasuna and Getafe under two goals at -125. And remember the draw there is at +195. Villarreal, don’t complicate it, money line -130. So good luck to everyone in La Liga. Remember, we will see you again on Thursday with Roman, with Pavlos. May all your bets be winners. It’s going to be a very, very busy time over the next few weeks. We’ve got a box clever. So you take care.
