La Liga Picks Matchday 5 | La Liga Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Now, my guests. Last week, it was Paco. This week, Roman’s back. Normal service will be resumed. There’ll be no craziness. There’ll be no doubting when your presenter says that Valencia will score four. And, on the other side, we’ve got Pavlos who is our man for stats and numbers. They don’t always come up trumps. But, at the end of the season, there’s always a plus next to his units. Roman, welcome back. Paco tried to do you in. But, are you survived another week?

Roman:

Yeah. Paco, as usual, came with his big bets. I think one went through. A couple maybe didn’t. But, doesn’t matter. The week before that, he did pretty well when he came on. So, nothing against Paco. He’s always a good partner.

Flash:

Oh, he’s great. He’s absolutely great. And, it’s good for me when you’re here. Because, then I can absolutely batter him. Pavlos, bad week for you. Bad week.

Pavlos:

Yeah. It was a weird week overall for me. Betting aside, I was out of focus I guess. I had some tough luck with some bets as well. But, yeah. Just scrap it. Just a bad week. It’s not going to happen again. I think I went four losses and one push, which was just horrible. We’ll make it up this week. I promise you guys. We have some much better place, much better matches upon us this weekend.

I think we’re going to try to squeeze out the value, because these are tricky matches in between Champion’s League. There’s a lot of teams who are playing in the Champions, Europa, Conference League. So, we have to be really careful not to step on the landmines like last week. I personally think that I’m going to go at least three and one this week. At least three and one. Maybe four though.

Flash:

Yeah, exactly. Get no negative. Get that negativity right out of the window very early on. But, remember, there is a caveat because we got Betis, Sevilla, got Villarreal. We also had Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, and Real Madrid all in European action. Now, let’s have a little look at the records and see what we did last week. The presenter did well. We’re happy with that. Always sing when you’re winning. 4.25 for you, presenter. But, look at the bottom. I mean, every single show is absolutely flying at the minute. 7.44, LaLiga low down. That’s obviously Paco and Roman. Normally, it’s more Roman than Paco at 1.386. Six wins, seven losses out of 13, just sitting there around the 49% mark.

Yeah, Pavlos, 1.78. I mean, you lost four units. It’s like brilliant that you can have a week like that and still be in profit. Okay. Remember, there’ll be a Q&A at the end. I know you don’t really like having questions and answers because these boys cover absolutely everything. But, as I say, we’ve got seven games. We’re going to kick off with the first game. This is a title one. Girona versus Valladolid. And, Rona are plus 125. Valladolid are plus 245. Neither of these sides are great. Neither of them score goals in abundance. Yet we are getting over two and half goals in the game at minus 125. But, the under is a massive, juicy minus 145. Whenever there’s plus money for both on the money line, you look at the bottom of the page. It’s a draw at plus 230. How do we split these, Roman?

Roman:

Well, it’s hard to say. Basically, I think the main advantage, of course, for Girona is that they’re playing at home. I think they’re going to be one of those sides that should get most of their points with their home fans supporting them. Want to say that Girona is also a very new team in the sense that they really changed their squad from last season. So, there’s lots of new players that have come in. It takes a bit of time maybe to completely form that squad and teach them all the new concepts the manager wants them to learn.

Also, their historically best striker, which is Stuani, he’s going to be out for a while after an arrhythmia he had. Hopefully, he’ll recover soon from that. So, they’re not going to count on him. But, they still have Taty Castellanos from the MLS who came in the summer. He’s looked pretty good, to be honest, in the start of the season. They also brought in Oriol Romeu from the Premier League who I think could really fortify that midfield for Girona.

So, I mean, I don’t see many goals here. I mean, Valladolid, on the other hand, haven’t been great either this start of the season. Away from home, I think they’re going to struggle. But, I guess a team like Girona, they maybe could get a draw, as you mentioned before. It’s definitely a possibility. Yeah, we’ll look around. Maybe draw. Maybe Girona win. But, definitely, few goals. I don’t see here a 4-3 score line because neither of both teams have great offensive power. Although, it’s true that Weissman, who was Valladolid’s best scorer last season in the second division, he’s back. He had a few minutes the other day and he could probably start this game, and he’s definitely going to be important for them.

Flash:

Late winner last week, Pavlos, Valladolid. They should have been three or four up to be fair to them. Every time the ball went in the box, I thought they were going to score against a Almeria. Remember, I had drawn no bet, Almeria. Is this under two and half at minus 145? Is this a parlay piece? Because, I’ve got this being 0-0 or 1-1 top whack.

Pavlos:

Yeah, this could be a low scoring game. But, as Roman said, Valladolid get back their top scorer from last season, Weissman, who was introduced in the match against Almeria in the… I think it was late 66th minute. And, he scored a late winner. It was an awesome goal. I was actually, for some reason, I was watching on a Monday night. I was watching this match and he made an excellent strike. I mean, the ball was deflected to a defender, but he had the brains and the calculations in his mind to put his foot in the perfect position to just push the goal inside, push the ball inside. It was amazing. An amazing strike by a proven striker.

I’m not sure how this Valladolid side, because every metric that we have so far was without Weissman. I’m guessing that at least their offensive numbers are going to be better because they were bottom four in the expected goals metrics with 0.88, minus 0.7 xG differential, which is not optimal. It’s in the bottom six of the league. While Girona, they’ve been slightly better. Not so much offensively because they have 0.83 xG per match. But, their difference has been much, much better. They allow just 1.03 xGA per match.

Again, we see these low totals for Girona. I think this going to be a very tough match between the two sides. I don’t see a lot of goals. Again, I have a slight concern about how Valladolid will operate with Weissman back in the lineup, who is probably going to start. Both teams have very good strikers, which is always something to consider, to take into consideration whenever you look towards playing the unders. And, both Castellanos and Weissman are really good strikers. Yes, they can score. The problem is if those two teams will be allowed to create a game. As you guys touched on before, Girona, they got Romeu from Southampton who is a really nice.. A very strong holding midfielder.

Yeah. He got his first yellow card, which is going to be a thing. Just keep in mind for his yellow cards over the season. I just think this is going to be a very, very tough match, possibly with very few goals. But, this is one of the matches where I just simply saw… I spent some time researching the numbers. And then, I passed because it could really go either way. I think this is eventually a six pointer in the sense that whoever wins not only takes three points for themselves, but also deprive one of their main competitors for the relegation battle of three points. This is six pointer and anything can go. I wouldn’t be surprised by a goals draw. I would be surprised by, I don’t know, Girona winning by 3-1. Because this is a very confusing match for me personally, and for the numbers that I have available, this is a big fat pass for me.

Flash:

Okay. For me, I’ve gone with a draw. Another thing I wanted say is don’t sleep on Valladolid because of where they are. We’re only at four weeks. But, they’ve played Barcelona. They’ve played Villarreal. They’re two of the best sides in Europe. And, in three of the four games, I just cannot remember what the other game… But, they’ve had both teams to score no. They got beat 4-0. They got beat 3-0. They won 1-0. Both teams to score no could be an avenue as well. But, for me, let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks. I know I’m on my own. Also, I just must tell you that this is the Friday night game. It’s Girona versus Valladolid, and it’s draw plus 230.

Let’s move on because here’s two of my sneaky little favorite teams. Rayo Vallecano versus Valencia. We got Valencia last week. It was unlucky the week before. But, Valencia are plus 200 to win on the road against the Rayo Vallecano side, who they give it they’re all, home or away. They’re just not the top, top notch. They’re at plus 160. Under or over two tells you everything. But, Valencia scored four last week. So, we could see over two. But, it’s minus 150. The draw is a plus 220. Valencia to score twice. Well, you’re probably looking around plus 115. Pavlos, take us away with Vallecano and Valencia, please.

Pavlos:

Yeah, Valencia, they were really good defensively so far in the season. And, they were without Gaya, who is supposed to make this team even better defensively. But, I was amazed by what I saw last week. They scored five goals against Getafe. Which, to be honest, I had Getafe not to score in that match. But, when this match finished and I saw the final, all the stats and all the cards, I remembered Roman. He said last season when we covered, Getafe-Valencia, or Valencia-Getafe, he said that these two teams have a grad standing from… I think it was a cup match a couple of years ago. I had marked it as one of my plays to play the cards there. And, I didn’t. And, they got like… I don’t know, eight, nine cards. One red card for each team. A late goal there for Getafe to ruin my bet on Getafe not to score.

But, yeah, I think this is a promising effort by Valencia, who’s offense is only going to get better, I guess, with the addition of Cavani. Their difference again with Gaya returning, I think they should be better. While Rayo Vallecano, they’re still with Falcao up front. He’s now coming from the bench. They also wanted Cavani. There were rumors of Diego Costa I think for a little bit there. This Vallecano side has not impressed me so far in the season. Yes, they took a goal [inaudible 00:12:23] against Barcelona, but that was pretty much just a stumble by Barcelona. It’s not like Rayo did anything of value in that match. Yes, they did beat Espanyol, but Espanyol… I’ve been passing on Espanyol show in and show out, and they beat me last week with Bilbao. Maybe I’m underestimating Espanyol.

But, this Rayo side has not been what it was last season. So far in the season, in their own home match, they played against Mallorca. I did not like what I saw. Yes, they created a lot of chances. But, they just couldn’t get the ball in the net. They had 15 scoring chances and just zero shots on goal. Mallorca, just forces two goals. With this new Valencia breath of fresh air in the offense, I think they’re going to be a very, very tough nut to crack against Vallecano. So, I can see Vallecano losing… winning here. Both matches last season between the two sides ended as 1-1 draws. I think Valencia can easily escape with [inaudible 00:13:28] points here.

Flash:

Yeah. Valencia plus 200, Roman. Looks like a possibility or draw no bet at plus 110. Valencia scored three times in the first half an hour last week. Again, I’ve got to go back to Paco who’s a massive Valencia fan. He couldn’t believe it when I said I think they’d score four, because they were knocking on the door and they drew a couple of blanks in the weeks prior.

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, it all came out suddenly for Valencia in that game, they completely dominated Getafe and they scored five. I think could’ve been a few more. The first three came super quickly, I think in 15 or 20 minutes. It was just crazy. Nobody expected that from Valencia, even though we knew that Getafe was coming in pretty poor form. But, I mean, still that’s just a massive result for them. Getafe were lucky to score in the end. Because, Valencia with Gattuso have really changed their style and their way they play. They like to have more of the ball. We saw it against Atletico Madrid also where I think Valencia, for most of the game, they were actually dominating against Atletico. They looked pretty good. But, they were just lacking a bit that final push of the ball at the back of the net in attack.

They managed to do that in against Gerafe. Of course, they’re going to wait on Edinson Cavani who still isn’t ready to play for the team. He signed this summer for them. He’ll definitely be a good, valuable asset. But, of course, he’s 35 years old. He’s coming from a little injury so Gattuso also doesn’t want to take any risk with him at the moment. So, he won’t play. We’ll see probably a very similar lineup to what we saw last weekend.

On the other hand, Rayo Vallecano, as Pavlos was saying, I think the last season, they overperformed we could say. Because, nobody expected them to have that super incredible start to the season. They really maybe showed all the problems they had in the second half of the season. I’m expecting this year to be more of a balanced side. I don’t think they’re going to win as many games. I think it’s going to look like more as how they’ve started the season with one win, one draw, two defeats. I think that’s going to be more of the Rayo we’re going to see, although they can definitely improve.

And, at home, they should be capable of doing a bit more. But, I mean, I’m really liking Valencia and I think they could get something. Even if it’s a draw, if it’s maybe a win by last minute goal or something like that. But, I think they have a good opportunity and I’m really liking Valencia this season in terms of how they play. We still have to see if they are reliable or if they’re going to be the classic Valencia which you can never trust. In one weekend, they win. One weekend, they lose. One weekend, who knows. In that sense, I’m going to trust them this weekend, but hopefully they will be more reliable this year.

Flash:

You’ve got to bring in the second season syndrome for Rayo Vallecano. Yeah, they maybe overperformed last year, but a lot of people have them down being maybe the bottom four. If they’re going to be bottom four, then Valencia are plus 200. Looks like a massive play. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Also, we’ve got one to add here because we’re going to have a parlay. And, it’s going to be Roman… Sorry, it’s going to be Pavlos’ parlay. He is going to go with the first leg is Valencia double chance, in the first leg of the parlay. And, the parlay will be plus 100. Valencia draw no bet at plus 110. But, remember Valencia to win is at plus 200, and over two goals. Looks like an absolute knocker if you want to put that in a parlay at minus 150. But, maybe just a nice 2-0 win Valencia, then everyone’s happy.

Let’s move on to game number three, because… I had to leave this. It’s Cadiz versus Barcelona. And, at Cadiz, we were talking about it in one of the other games. That bottom four, Cadiz, they might even be bottom two. It’s Cadiz at plus 1,200. Barcelona minus 400. Barcelono scored five in midweek in Europe. Under three goals is at minus 105. I think that’s probably the way to go here. Because, I think worst case scenario, you see Barcelona win this game 3-0. The draw redundant at plus 525. Now, Barcelona today score three because it’s plus 105, Roman, for your boys to win 3-0. Is 3-0 the sort of score line you’re expecting?

Roman:

Honestly, I am expecting that kind of score line. I mean, Barca have been looking really good and attacked with Lewandowski. I mean, he’s just crazy good. We were doubting whether he could keep up the same level as in Germany in a league like the Spanish one. But, he’s definitely showing he’s capable of that, and even more. Honestly, with what Dembele’s showing this season, he’s looking so much better. You’ve got Raphinha also looks great. You’ve got Ferran Torres. You’ve got Ansu Fati.

I mean, that team has so much going forward. And, they can concede maybe one or two goals but, I think in attack, they’re just so strong that even if Cadiz comes out as they usually do and close down and try and avoid allowing any spaces to Barcelona, I still think that Barca will be capable of breaking them down in the end. I mean, Cadiz is true that they got really good results in the last four games against Barcelona with two wins and two draws, which was definitely surprising. But, I think this season it’s a different Barcelona. I think they look so much better than they did.

I honestly do think they’re going to score quite a few goals because Cadiz have had a horrible start to the season. Zero goals they’ve scored. They’ve conceded 10 and they haven’t really played against really strong sides, we could say. They’ve played against Athletic Club. They’ve played against Osasuna and Celta, Real Sociedad. I mean, they should be capable of at least getting a goal against some of these teams. It really comes to show how their transfer market has been very, very poor. They’ve barely brought in any players this season. Honestly, I think Cadiz are looking so bad and they could definitely be candidates to relegation. And, Sergio, the manager, I don’t think he’s going to last very long, even though he did a great job in saving them last season. But, the start to the season looks very, very, very bad.

Flash:

Pavlos, Barcelona, minus one and a half at minus 140. Is that right on the cusp of where you’d want to go with a single?

Pavlos:

Yeah, easily. Easily. I think that’s a gift, to be honest. Of course, we’re judging by the metrics alone. But, you guys made some great points. Cadiz, they’ve conceded multiple goals in three of the last four. They didn’t concede multiple goals against Real Sociedad, who we know they’re not… They’re going to kill you. They’re just going to get the job done. But, still, conceding multiple goals against Osasuna, four goals against Bilbao, and three against Celta Vigo. What do we expect when Barcelono are coming to town?

Yes, I know Cadiz were kind of good last season at home. But, this season, they’ve been really struggling in all aspects of the game. I’m looking at the metrics. They have by far the worst xG numbers. They have by far… Actually not by far. They have the second worst xGA numbers. They have by far the worst xG differential with minus 2.12. They have… Let me see here. Yes, they have the fewest shots goal with eight. And, they have the… Sorry, the fewest total shots with eight per match, and the fewest shots on goal with 1.8 per match.

Pair that up with Barcelona’s defense who allows just 7.8 shots per match, the fewest in the league. And, one of the fewest shots goal with 3.5. You have a struggling attack matching with a really, really good defense. Then, when you show up the numbers, let’s see what Cadiz do in the attack. They have the worst offensive numbers. They create the fewest shots, the fewest shots on goal. And, Barcelona, they create the most shots on goal. Actually, the second most, I’m sorry. Because, I have a big table right now in front of me. There is a lot of numbers. But, Barcelona, they have the second most shots on goal, 19.5 per match. And, the second most shots on target with 7.3.

Cadiz, they have one of the most allowed shots on goal with 15 per match, and 5.8 shots on target. What’s going to happen when Barcelona coming to town? I see very few chances for Cadiz, if any. Their shots on goal who, by the way are the fewest in the league, are probably going to be saved by Barcelona. I see this as a Barcelona win 2-0. Barcelona, minus one and a half. Just every kind of bet involving Barcelona. I can’t really make a case for the under here because Barcelona can really…

I mean, even if the reserves play, the reserves are going to try to prove themselves and try to make a case for being a starter. So, I think whoever plays for this Barcelona side is going to be at a hundred percent. Of course, they’re coming off a 5-1 win over Plzen. Yes, they do have another Championship League match coming up in a few days. Yes, they’re going to be careful. But, I mean, Barcelona winning by 2-0, 3-0, is not so crazy to ask for. So, yeah, I think this is Barcelona all the way, possibly by a clean sheet and possibly by many goals.

Flash:

I wrote down 2-0, 3-0 Barcelona. I don’t think we are going to get a decent price on Barcelona win 2-0 because Cadiz have not scored. Also, I’m thinking, okay, Barcelona in under three and a half. But, you know that Barcelona could score five. So, I had to leave it alone to be honest. But, they’re going from strength to strength and it’s great to have them back, especially with all the attacking prowess that’s in their squad. Really happy for RL9.

Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official pick [inaudible 00:22:42]. There’s a shock. Okay. Barcelona minus 1.75 at plus 100. If they win by just two, you push and you win half bare. Okay. Barcelona team. So, over two and a half at plus 105. Roman’s not messing about. If Barcelona score three, that’s it. If they score three, Pavlos is happy as well.

Okay. Let’s move on because this next game, I can’t believe that I’m even going to talk about it to be honest. Because, it’s Elche versus Athletic Club who are not just on the naughty step. I’ve put them out like Fred Flintstone’s cat and they’re allowed in my house. Elche are plus 310. Athletic Club, odds on minus 105 away from home. That tells you what the hosts are like. Draw is at plus 245, is under or over two goals. Over two goals at minus 140. Oh, Pavlos. You can take this away because I don’t want nothing to do with the visitors. And, I can’t trust the hosts.

Pavlos:

I’m sorry, guys. But, I’m just going by the metrics here and, Elche, they have the second worst xG with 0.66 per game. The second worst xGA with 2.59. The second worst xG differential with minus 1.93. They create just nine shots on goal, which is the second worst in the league. They create just 2.5 shots on goal, which is in the bottom five of the league. Now, they’re playing against the Bilbao side who, yes, offensively, they fizzled against Espanyol last week. But, their defensive numbers have been out of the… They’ve been really amazing.

They have the best xGA numbers, 0.63. They are fifth in the xG differential with 1.08. Their offense is quite good. They create 18 shots on goal. Sorry, 18 shots per match and 4.5 shots on goal per match. But, their defensive numbers are really amazing. They’re top three in shots allowed with 8.5 per match. And, they have the fewest shots on goal allowed with 1.8. Again, we have an Elche side that is struggling to create chances. They’re struggling to create even shots on goal. Not actual goals, but even shots on goal. And then, you have a Bilbao side who very good defensively. They don’t allow many shots. Out of those shots that they actually allow, just 1.8 goes on target. I just see Elche not scoring here. I don’t care if Bilbao win. I don’t care if Bilbao lose… Not lose. I don’t care if Bilbao [inaudible 00:25:22].

Flash:

Yeah, they’ll lose [inaudible 00:25:22] That’s the type of club you’re talking about with Athletic Club though. They could lose and the other team not score. But, I agree with you. And, as you were writing down, I’ve just had a little look. An Elche team total under 0.5.

Pavlos:

Yeah.

Flash:

Is at plus 30. I’ve took it.

Pavlos:

Same.

Flash:

Not because of Athletic Club, but because of how bad Elche are, Roman. And, I don’t see these two scoring. Well, not both of them. One of them will do if it’s probably the away side. The only affinity I’ve got with Athletic Club is that they gave my best friend the One Club Man Award, Matt Le Tissier. And, he’s always welcome there. So, I have to have some sort of affinity. But, putting my money down on them, no chance.

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, for me also. It’s a tricky game. I’m going to pass because, I mean, I just don’t know which way it’s going to go. I do think Athletic are favored. But, at the same time, if you look at Elche’s calendar, they have been pretty poor at their start. But, it hasn’t been an easy calendar because they’ve played Villarreal, they’ve played Betis, they’ve played Real Sociedad. It hasn’t been really easy for them. Now, it’s Athletic Club and then it’s Barca.

It’s a pretty tough start for Elche, who aren’t going to get many points in the start. But, I mean, Athletic, we’ve seen decent versions this season. But, at the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re a bit [inaudible 00:26:29] or they concede a surprise goal. I just couldn’t really trust any of the two sides. That’s why I passed. Although, it’s true to point out that, Inigo Martinez, he’s probably going to be back for Athletic Club after being out for a while for an injury.

So, I mean, he’s definitely going to help prevent Elche’s scoring goals. That’s probably in favor of your bet and Pavlov’s bet, of course. Because, I mean, Inigo was one of the best defenders in Spain last season. If he’s in good shape, he should definitely help them in that sense. But, aside from that, I just can’t say. Because, I did like Elche against Almeria, even though it was a 1-1 draw at home. I saw the support of the fans behind them and they pushed and they didn’t look too bad. But then, it’s true that they haven’t really looked good since, and they got thrashed against Villarreal, even though it was an away game. But, yeah, I don’t know. It’s just too tricky. I’m going to pass this one for now.

Flash:

Okay. Let me just pick your brain for just a second. Elche, they’re in the same camp as Cadiz, Valladolid, Vallecano, maybe Mallorca. There’s a lot of bad teams. Maybe we’re talking about a bottom six here where we can feast on them most weeks, Roman?

Roman:

Yeah. [inaudible 00:27:38] I mean, those you said. Maybe Rayo, I wouldn’t really put them that low. I think they should have enough to save themselves. But, definitely the others you mentioned. Maybe including Getafe. They also started really poorly this season. I think they’re going to be definitely contenders and they’re going to struggle unless another team surprises us from now until the end.

I think those five or six you mentioned are definitely going to be around the bottom positions. And, Elche, for sure is going to be there unless something happens. Because, it’s true that last season they looked really, really bad. But then, they kicked off with the new manager and they saved themselves relatively comfortably. But, yeah. I think this season, again, they’re going to struggle because the signings they brought in weren’t fantastic aside from a few. I don’t think they have a squad for much more.

Flash:

I love the fact that it could be a case of anyone below 12th in the league could be involved in a relegation scrap. It’s going to be exciting for us. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Because, Elche and Athletic Club, there’s only one way you could really go with any sort of confidence. That is Elche. Team total under 0.5 at plus 130, and two units that are on that for us. Because, I’ve gone in with that as well. I’ve just put it in while Pavlos was talking because I’m happy that Athletic Club will not let Elche score.

Okay. Move on. Game number five. Tricky game. Getafe versus Real Sociedad. Getafe have massive plus 270. Real Sociedad plus 120. The draw is at plus 210, and the total is under or over two goals with the over being at minus 105. Roman, I’m going to come to you again here because Sociedad are far better than Getafe. But, they have lost obviously their star man up front. Are they going to change their style of play?

Roman:

I mean, I don’t think it’s going to change much. I think they actually got a better player for me. I think Umar Sadiq is maybe not yet considered Isak level because he’s coming from the second division. But, in the second division, he was really good. In the start with Almeria, we saw him scoring goals. And, in his debut with Real Sociedad, he scored a goal. I honestly think he’s going to provide for them while Oyarzabal is unavailable.

I think with him, not much to change. Different style in the sense that maybe he doesn’t have as much pace as Isak. But, he can still run and he’s got a lot of quality in his feet. He’s very technical and he can score any kind of goal, with the head, with a foot, whatever. In that sense, I think they’re quite well covered and they made a big chunk of money, Real Sociedad, they can use for other things or for the future transfer markets.

I still think they have plenty to keep up with the level they’ve had in previous seasons. Negative is they do have quite a lot of injuries. We saw, as I said before, Oyarzabal is injured. And, Le Normande, one of their main center backs got injured recently. That’s a bit of a setback. But, they still have quality. Getafe just looked so, so bad in the start of the season. I mean, they did get that draw at home against Villarreal. Ruined some of our bets if I don’t remember badly. But, I still think that was very lucky because Villarreal had plenty of chances. They should have scored. They should have won that game. Unless some miracle formation or tactic by Quique Sanchez Torres gets them a good result, I think Real Sociedad should be capable of getting the three points and taking them home. Even if it’s with a short score line. But, for me, Real Sociedad should have enough to win this game.

Flash:

Okay, I’ve got to do my job. I should have just said Getafe at plus 270. Real Sociedad on the money line. Plus 120. The alarm bells are going off because they were at plus 100. You are now getting 20% better off. The books are offering you 20%. They don’t give away money. For me, you look at the bottom, it’s a draw plus 210 because they cannot trust Sociedad. Pavlos, how are you getting 20% better than two… Less than 48 hours ago when they were priced at plus 100 and now you can get plus 120? That is either a trap or it’s a Christmas present.

Pavlos:

I think it’s a trap. To be honest, Real Sociedad we keep praising their defensive efforts, show in and show out. But, this season, judging at least by the metrics that I have in front of me which they count the expected goals against, and they count how many shots your team allows. Total shots and shorts on target. I’ve never seen such bad defensive numbers for Real Sociedad in years. Now, they allow 1.46 expected goals against. Which might not seem like a lot, but in previous seasons they were close to 1.20, 1.30, 1.15. Some are close there. What really worries me is the fact that they allow 12.3 shots on their own goal, and 5.3 on target, which is really worrisome. I mean, it’s down there in the bottom five.

Getafe, weird thing about Getafe is the fact that they haven’t scored in any of their two home matches. Of course, they were against Villarreal and Atletico Madrid. We have to take that into consideration. But, they did score in both their away matches, against Girona and Valencia. Last season, they scored I believe it was 12 goals in 19 away matches. I think they didn’t even win on the road. Or, if they won, it was just one single win. They were terrible on the road, but better at home. That’s why they saved themselves some relegation.

This season, this Getafe side has been struggling in all fronts. Again, they’re in the bottom three in a lot of metrics, xG, xGA. Actually their xGA number is not that bad, 1.77. But, their xG numbers with 0.67 per match is just really, really low. Now, you have to put it up with a theoretically good Real Sociedad, defense which in theory is good, but in practice, it’s not that good. I know that they had a tough schedule, not a very good schedule to start the season. Maybe these numbers are a bit off because they conceded four against Barcelona.

But, I’m kind of scared. I’m really scared to be honest, guys. Because, in the last couple of seasons, Real Sociedad are beaten against Getafe. They have a couple of wins and a couple of draws. Both matches last season ended in draws. But, when you look historically between the two matches, I’m on Real Sociedad double chance to be honest. But, I have to play devil’s advocate on my own self here because I see a lot of sneak sneaky 2-1 wins for Getafe. Actually the 2-1 is a very common correct score for these two sides. A lot of Getafe wins came by 2-1. And, a lot of Real Sociedad wins came by 2-1. Of course, that was a couple of… two, three seasons ago. But, I still… Whenever I see a lot of 2-1s, I’m inclined to throw a couple of bucks on the 2-1 for Getafe at plus 1,200 and at the 2-1 for Real Sociedad at plus 900.

But, my bet here is Real Sociedad not to lose. I mean, Getafe have been at least a couple of steps lower than Real Sociedad this season. I think it’s going to be a huge upset if Getafe beat Real Sociedad. Yes, Real Sociedad’s defense have been struggling. But, they get the job done. I think worst case scenario, this is going to be a draw. I think that Real Sociedad are entering a new era, away from Isak, as Roman said. And, with Sadiq right now in front. But, I think this match kind of stinks like a draw. That’s why I took the double chance here and that’s the second leg of my parlay.

Flash:

Okay. That’s the second leg of your parlay then. We’ve got Valencia double chance. We’ve got Real Sociedad double chance. That plays plus 100. Roman, you’re a founder member in our team on doing shows like this. The draw is at plus 210. When we just go with the numbers, we always say, “Anytime that the number is anywhere near plus 200, it’s amazing the amount of times it comes out as a draw.” I’ve got it down as a 1-1. I have. But, obviously when you see the official picks, I’ve got to be cheering on Sociedad.

But, I mean, this is a Getafe side that two years ago, they took all before them in the Europa League run. Especially at home, they were very, very good. But, this is not the same Getafe. Just have a little look at the official picks, please. Look at that Real Sociedad money line, plus 120. They were plus 100. Pavlos has gone with the second leg of his parlay, which is a Real Sociedad double chance.

Remember, that’s in with Valencia and that is at plus 100. That’s all good. Let’s move on to the best game. This is the best game. Real Betis versus Villarreal. I don’t care who you like. Enjoy. Real Betis at plus 180, that will have its suitors. Villarreal plus 150, that will also have its suitors. The over two and a half at minus 120. I think both teams score and it goes over. The draws a massive runner at plus 250. Because, Roman, these are proper sides. I favor the yellow submarine, but the way that Betis play, I wrote this down. This is a 2-2 draw.

Roman:

I mean, it could be. Because, as you said, two really good sides for me. Two contenders this season to fight for the Champions League, given how Sevilla have been doing lately, and Atletico Madrid. They tend to be reliable, but they have also started a bit poorly. Definitely they’re going to be there, fighting. Pellegrini has really improved the squad. On the other hand, we have Villarreal who, this season, has a very, very deep squad with lots of players to rotate through. As we saw, for example, in the game they just played in the Conference League where they won 4-3. They basically completely changed the squad for the match because he has the capability to do so. I think most of the starters are going to be fresh and ready to play against Real Betis.

The fact is that Villarreal have a really good record against Betis. They’ve won I think it’s eight of the last 12 games against Betis. That’s, of course, in favor of Unai Emery and his men. But, this Betis I think is a stronger version of them than we’ve seen, sorry, in previous seasons. It’s tricky because I would expect goals. As you said, 2-2 could be very likely. But, then again, I’ve seen games where I expected these two sides to score a lot of goals, and then maybe they fell short.

That’s why, in my case, I decided to pass also, keeping in mind that, Fekir, he got injured at the game against Real Madrid right at the start of the match. He’s really important for Real Betis going forward. His creativity and attack is going to be something that the team is going to miss against Villarreal. Given that Betis at home are usually strong, but Villarreal have a really good record against them, I personally really like how Villarreal have this season. I just wasn’t convinced, so I decided to pass.

Flash:

Yeah, listen, they’re both on the back of a Europa League game. But, Villarreal have got that squad where they can just basically rest 10 players and come back. Listen, the cards in this game. This game gets niggly, because both of these are high in confidence. They both have a little chip on their shoulder because they’re not fashionable. They’re not like you Atletico Madrid, your Real Madrid or your Barcelona. But, these two are good sides, Pavlos. As I say, I’ve got to go with a draw at plus 250. I can’t split them. You know that week in week out, I love my yellow submarine.

Pavlos:

Both the sides are show favorites. We made a lot of money, a lot of units, last season with both Betis and Villarreal. It’s true that both these sides, they use their backup, let’s say their reserves, in the matches today in the Europa League. Betis won by 2-0 against Helsinki. Villarreal won by 4-3. It’s clear that both these sides are gearing up for the massive clash that we are about to witness on the weekend. It really saddens me that I cannot pick anything in this match. No matter how I look at it, I don’t really want to go against any of the sides. Maybe the draw is actually the way to go here. When you said that 2-2 correct score, I got goosebumps because I love my correct scores and the 2-2 draw, just something lit up on me.

Maybe that’s a small stake bet on the 2-2 draw at plus I believe it’s 1,200. I think it’s definitely worth it. But, stats wise, Villarreal have been better than Betis so far in the season. Not a lot better, but their difference has been really, really nicely 0.74 expected goals against 2.02 expected goals for. When you pair that up with Betis, Betis have 1.77 in the expected goals. Just a bit lower. But, 1.47 in the difference in the xGA. They have twice as many expected goals against this Betis side. This is one of the trickiest match in the cards this weekend. I think the draw at plus 250, yes, it’s a nice way to play this. It could really go either way.

In terms of goals, I wouldn’t be surprised by a goalless draw, a 1-1, a 2-0, a 0-2. I wouldn’t be surprised by a 4-3, a 4-4. Really, this is one of the match where you pour yourself a drink, a smoke, or whatever if you are a smoker. You sit on your couch and you relax. And then, you watch a very, very nice match. I doubt it’s going to be a very boring match. But, judging by what has happened between two sides in previous seasons, you’ve seen a lot of matches with very few goals.

I mean, last season, Villarreal, they won both matches by 2-1, by 2-0, sorry. They didn’t even concede a single goal against Betis. And, the season before that, a 1-1 draw in this venue, and a 2-1 Betis win in Villarreal. I think we might not even see a lot of goals here. Again, this is one of the matches where anything could happen, anything could happen, and it wouldn’t even surprise me. For me, personally, this match is out of the question. But, if I had to play it, I’d play on the draw and some beer money on some correct scores.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Because, we like watching these two sides. As Pavlos says, it wouldn’t be no surprise if both teams score and it goes over. But, no surprise if it’s 0-0 either. That’s why I’ve gone for the draw at plus 250. I just think that the number is miles too big for two sides that evenly match up. They’re coming off a European campaign. I just see that, for a long period of this game, it’s going to be a draw.

So, okay. Let’s move on two game number seven. Again, this looks too obvious. It’s Almeria versus Osasuna. I was tempted to go with Almeria at plus 117, and I think Osasuna at plus 180. They’re so organized. They know that they’re just below that top echelon in LaLiga soccer. Look at a draw at plus 225. I can see all three results. I’m going to come to you first, Pavlos. Because, the under or over, over two and a half, it’s at plus 125. That tells me that the books are saying there’s only going to be two goals. If there’s only two goals, it’s another tight game.

Pavlos:

Yeah. This is actually a tough much to predict. But, I was looking at all the metrics, all the stats that I have in my hand so far. I just don’t see Osasuna losing this one. We’re just keeping that for now. Osasuna, they made a strong starting decision, three wins and one loss. They did beat Sevilla, who by the way, Sevilla we talked about them in the preseason match, in the preseason. We talk about them on and off again in our shows. They’re just really, really bad right now. The beat Sevilla. They beat Cadiz, who are also bad. They lost to Betis by 1-0, but it was a match where they could have easily gotten at least one point. I mean, Betis, they scored the only winning goal in their only shot on target. While Osasuna, they created more shots on goal and they were generally better in that match.

Maybe they could have been unbeaten right now, theoretically. They did also beat Rayo Vallecano by 2-1. While this Almeria side, yes, they have a potent offense. Maybe they can score goals. But, Osasuna’s numbers have been really, really nice. I mean, they have the third best xG differential in the entire LaLiga. Barcelona first, Real Madrid are second, and Osasuna are third with 1.42 xG differential. Because, they have very good xG numbers. The third best in the league with 2.09 per match. And, they have the third best xGA numbers, which are the defensive numbers with 0.67 per match. So, they don’t allow a lot of shots in their defense, just 7.8 shots per match. Just 2.3 shots on goal, which is the second best defensive record in the league.

Again, they did have a couple of, let’s say, easy matches against a struggling Sevilla side against a struggling… What was it? Cadiz side. Against Betis, they were really good defensively. I just don’t see them losing here, but in terms of goals, because I have Osasuna double chance and something here. Because, when I see such a big price on a team that I like, and Osasuna are plus two, what? Plus 280 under my line. I usually take the draw and the team that I like and I pair it up with either the under three and a half, or over one and a half. In this case, I went with the over one and a half because I do think that Almeria have the quality to score. Osasuna, I think they have been really, really good on both ends of the page. This, in my eyes, is like a 1-1 draw. Zero, a 0-2 win for Osasuna. Maybe a 1-2, a win for Osasuna. I see at least a couple of goals, but I just don’t see Osasuna losing here. I’m looking towards the visitors on this one.

Flash:

Okay. Listen, the thing is with Almeria though, Roman, is that they’ve got such good pace up in the offensive areas. But, they are too reliant on individuals. They’re bit raw still. Where got away with it last year, but up against organized defense, they’ve run up blind alleys and they do not create enough considering that they have really, really sharp individuals. But, over two and a half at plus 125. Really, you’re just asking the home side to contribute. It looks like a big price.

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, given Pavlos, the stats shared with us, I mean, it definitely looks like a big possibility. I do see both teams scoring in this game, to be honest. It is true that now Almeria are going to have to survive without Umar Sadiq. Of course, went to Real Sociedad as we mentioned before. He was definitely their main man going up in attack and they haven’t really replaced him with the same quality.

Although, they still did bring in Baptistao who, back in the day, was really good here in LaLiga playing with Rayo Vallecano. But, of course, he’s aged since then. I don’t know he’s going to provide as many goals as he used to. But then, they also have Ramazani who’s been having a great start to the season. So, I mean, they do have players. Although, for me, Sadiq is definitely going to be something they’re really going to miss a lot during the season. But, of course, they needed the money and they had to sell him.

On the other hand, Osasuna, I mean, they just look so good. The start of the season, they’ve had really, really impressive results, to be honest. I mean, they’ve always been quite solid and reliable. But, this season, it seems like they’ve brought their game a step up. Also, they brought in a new signing, or more like a loaning from Barcelona, which is Abde, who had his first few minutes the other day in that 2-1 win against Rayo Vallecano. He was the one who gave the assist for the 90 minutes goal, I think it was, against Rayo Vallecano by Ruben.

So, I mean, Osasuna are strong. They’ve brought in another top quality player going forward in EZ Abde. Also, they’ve recovered a carpool of important players for this game because their main or their best center back that Unai Garcia was injured. He won’t likely start this one. They also recovered Lucas Torro for that midfield. So, I mean, Osasuna are really reliable at the moment and I wouldn’t bet against them. But, of course, being away, I can understand why some people maybe trust Almeria a bit more. But, overall, I do think that Pavlos going for that bet with Osasuna is definitely going to be good for him.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official pick. Although, I was tempted to go over to one half at plus 125. But then, you might as well just go both teams to score and over, and it might be like 160. Okay. Osasuna double chance. And, over 1.5 at plus 100 for Pavlos. And, that type of bet will be available on BetUS very, very soon. As soon as I get time to send over to the market makers. Because, at the minute, I’ve got to add the midweek games last week, then we had Champion’s League and Europa League. And, it’s just making sure that we get the right numbers and the right selections. There’ll be our specials on the soccer. We will be using that very, very soon.

Okay. Time for the quick Q&A. But, prior to that, I remind you about us being America’s favorite sports book. That means I’d like you to subscribe. Also, ring the bell. Ring the bell means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. If you’re on social media, then follow @betUSTV. If you want a shirt… Could be anyone. It could be Girona, it could be Real Madrid. Or, it could be one from the other leagues or a Champion’s league shirt, then make sure you press the link in the description. Go over there and join. That will put you in the drawing. And then, I’ll pick out, and I’ll pick out numbers. I just get the account number and boom, I pick the numbers, not the names.

Okay. Let’s go. Let’s have a little look. Let’s have a little look at the best bets. It’s been a long day. Let’s wrap up these seven bets and a parlay being added and also my added bet as well. Skip the Q&A then, please. [foreign language 00:50:38]. Girona and Valladolid a draw at plus 230. Betis, Villarreal draw at plus 250. I’ve also jumped on the Elche team total under 0.5 at plus 130 bandwagon.

Roman, Valencia draw no bet at plus 110. Barcelona team total over two and a half at plus 105. Well, that means they need to score three. They score three, then Pavlos is going to cash with his Barcelona minus ones 0.75 at plus 100. Pavlos has also got that double. Remember the parlay. He’s gone with Valencia double chance and Sociedad double chance at plus 100. Sociedad money line at plus 120. Remember that was plus 100. The books are offering you 20%. I’ll just beware books giving you such bonuses. But, it could turn out to be a Christmas present. And, Osasuna double chance and over 1.5 at plus 100. Foxy saying, “How’s Castellanos been getting on at Girona so far?” Roman.

Roman:

Well, yeah, I mentioned it before during the game. I mean, he’s had a really good adaptation to the team. He’s been a starter with the Stuani who’s the historically best striker. I mean, the credit to Castellanos managing to find a position in that starting 11. And, now with Stuani, who’s going to be unavailable for a while. I mean, he’s definitely going to be the main man in attack. So, I mean, he’s got pace, he’s got goals and I think he’s going to be important for them if he can keep up with this good start to the season.

Flash:

Excellent. Make sure that you put your thumbs up on the way out. If you are watching this on a record, then please say something in the comments. I’ll respond or I’ll get Pavlos to, or I’ll get Roman to. Please, make sure you follow @BetUSTV because we do like to give you some winners or some updated news over the weekend. Pavlos, good luck this week. I’m sure it won’t be as bad as last week. Because, that’s quite impossible. Roman, welcome back. It’s so much better having you than Paco. All right. But, from everyone at BetUS, you take care. Remember, it’s Bundesliga [foreign language 00:52:38]. Take care.