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2023 US Open Championship Predictions | Golf Picks, Odds & Best Golf Wagers

Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS Tennis Horse Racing and Golf Channel. And it’s that time of year where I am going to be so enthusiastic, maybe a little bit over the top, a little bit like a kid at Christmas because it is US Open golf. It’s the third major of the year. And the big thing for me is this is my favorite tournament of the year because for 95% of the golfers it’s pain for two days and pain for four days. Even the winner maybe feels that little bit of pain. But first of all, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook. So I’d like you to subscribe and also ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. If you like your odds and your props and listen just a little bit of a golf clap here for our odds team, because there is so many markets that you can have, if there was an Indian and there’s only one in it, you’d get top Indian price.

It’s unbelievable the job that they have done. So please make sure you go over there and just type in bet ustv.com/join. And then obviously if you want to go really deep and have free bets and anything else, then you’re going to find everything you need there. It’s like a one stop shop. Now I’ve got both coasts covered today because on the West Coast I’ve got James Mazzola and on the East Coast I’ve got Nick Borrman. Both of them are absolute experts when it comes to swinging a golf club, viewing swinging a golf club. I’m not too sure what they’re like when it’s coming down the stretch on a Sunday afternoon. James Mazzola LA Country clubs over 7,400 yards and let’s just set the scene. It’s exclusive. This golf club with a capital E.

James Mazzola:

Oh my goodness, it’s one of the gems on the West Coast. Pretty much that and Cyrus are the two golf courses that all of US West Coasters want to play at some point in our life. Beautiful, beautiful course and unlike any other course on the West Coast either, we’re looking at barrancas, we have extreme elevation changes, one of the oldest courses on the West Coast. And a very exclusive membership but for a long time well had nothing to do do with the PGA Tour.

It wasn’t like the PGA Tour wasn’t asking them, they told them no. And now finally we are here. I’ve never seen the golf course. I have a bunch of friends who have played it a bunch of times, but I’m just excited to see not just the flyovers, because the flyovers have been spectacular. I want to see the coverage and obviously I want to see some excellent golf from the best in the world. 150-man field. This is the biggest turn of the year.

Flash:

Yeah, that would be trimmed down. That’ll be trimmed down by Thursday afternoon because players will already know that they’re there just for, I don’t know, like a tourist attraction. 83 years, Nick Borrman, the last time that we saw this event or an event of this magnitude at the LA Country Club. There has been Walker Cup as well. And let me just throw in a little bit of this. Scottie Scheffler was in that Walker Club.

Nick Borrman:

Yeah, he was. And like James said, this is not a place that the old regime of membership wanted any events really there at all, but they finally branched out to the USGA and I’m sure if it all goes well, it’ll be, I don’t want to say a staple, but probably in one of the rotations going forward in future years and it of course looks awesome. I was reading something from the director of USGA, just saying as the week goes on, the winner here is going to be the guy that can outthink everybody else because you’re going to have to hit shots opposite the fairway if you help try to hold these slopes of the fairways that try to want to throw you into, as James mentioned, the barrancas and everywhere else that the ball’s going to run off into. So it’s going to be really a shot maker but really a thinkers course this week.

Flash:

It’s going to be an everything golfer. The flattest part of this golf course is actually the tee box because you have actually the fairways that you hit. The sloping from right to left, but you might be 10 foot up on the right to the left. You have slopes from left to right. And by the way, when they roll off these greens, first of all you’ve got US Open style rough and then you’ve got barrancas. If people don’t know what barrancas are, they’re basically riverbeds. I’ve got no water in them, but they’ve got rocks, trees and deep growth and this is going to be magnificent. This is what we want to see. We don’t want to see none of these 20 unders and things like this, James.

James Mazzola:

Absolutely not. And you mentioned the Walker Cup, we have that as a point. Also, the 2013 patch old championships were here. I’m going to talk about that a little bit more in a bit. But like you said, around the greens you have thick Bermuda rough as well, which is a little unique to the West Coast. You’re used to the [inaudible 00:05:28] and Riviera, so while it’s on the West Coast it’s a different West coast setup up, but with my card I’m going to lend itself to some California guys who I think will have a little bit of leg up being that they have had the ability to play here in multiple events. Pro events, Obviously, but as amateurs little experience, it’s probably going to play a little bit different. But I think that’s going to help some of these guys with a little confidence when it comes down the stretch on Sunday.

Flash:

Yeah, I think if you get to sit down and actually watch all 18 holes and obviously the 70-year olds are going to play so much differently from Thursday through to Sunday afternoon, Nick. But the fairways remind me a lot of obviously Augusta, but there’ll be a lot faster and a lot firmer because you’re going to have balls above your feet, below your feet. Then I have the tree line and the thinking man’s shots of Riviera, but then I want you to extend them both them golf courses and maybe take it up a few notches.

Nick Borrman:

Yeah, you have fairways, first of all, that are wide. So it’s a little unusual from what we see in the US Opens, it’s not long or, excuse me, not narrow fairways. So you got plenty of room but that’s not the challenge. It’s a dog leg to the left while this fairway slopes to the right and a green that wants to hit a hook into. So it’s like how the heck are you supposed to get around and navigate yourself in the right’s position? So it’s going to be a lot of the placement driving. You could say it’s not as important because you’re more likely to hit a fairway, but I think it’s even more important because you have to be in the right spots and the only way you’re going to stay in the fairway is if you hit the right spot of the fairway with the right ball shape.

So somebody that can hit both ways with their tee shot is very important and that’s usually who plays well at Augusta too are the guys that can shape their drivers. I.e. Bubba Watson, one of the best ball shapers you’ll ever see. If he was in his prime. I wonder what we could do here, but I’m sure we’ll talk about the names. Scottie is a guy though that can shape the ball off the tee with the best of them. So I like his chances, but I digress. This course, it looks very, very difficult in so many different ways and I think it’s just like you said, Flash, it’s only going to get harder as the week goes on.

Flash:

Okay, well we’re not going to go no graphics with prices. We’re going to try and set the scene because I’ve gone over this flyby maybe 200 times. I’ve slowed it down. I’ve got a left to right golfer here off the tee, a right-handed left to right golfer and basically, I want to be cutting the ball into the slope rather than a right to lefter who’s going to come across and bounce. Because you could be hitting the middle of the fairway on your bounce and in a 70-yard diagonal left and you are in all sorts of trouble. James, let’s just go with the type of player that we need from off the tee. We can name names now.

James Mazzola:

I think it’s actually important to mention before we get into the names that Southern California has had we really weird winter with rain just last week. So a lot of the accounts right now on the ground is that the golf course is a little softer. So take that 7,500 yard par 70 and maybe even extend it out a little bit. My guess is the first couple days they won’t have those tees too difficult because it’s such a large field, you got to try and get everyone through the dang thing. Because then when it comes Saturday, when it comes Sunday we’re going to see more tee. But ultimately, like you said, you’re going to need a guy who carves it both sides I think more so with their iron shots, the different pin placements. You can have a 30-yard difference just from a front to a back pin on some of these greens.

Some of them are massive, some of them are small. I think you’re going to be able to have to hit more of an iron shape, especially if the fairways do stay a little bit wet because it’s really not that hot down there right now. Not expecting any precipitation, but I think off the tee, you’re going to have your bombers who can just hit the fairways. Who can shape the shaw the best with the irons. I have some guy. Obviously Scottie Scheffler, but hey look, Scottie, he’s priced like that, right? We’re looking at-

Flash:

No, he is.

James Mazzola:

…6.6 and a half to one. Hey Rahm is a wonderful iron player left and right. We only think about his drives and his cuts, but he loves hooking his irons. He has no problem doing that. Obviously Brooks has every shot in the bag. And Rory’s not going to have any problem. He was hitting a cut they’re in Canada last week I was noticing. So maybe starting to get his driver swing dialed in. But generally speaking, look I think you could probably just talk about those four guys and I think you probably have your winner right there, but there are some guys down a little bit lower.

But generally those are the four, especially the top three. I really would love to see just two of those three battling it out on Sunday because I love a Brooks when he’s motivated like he is against a young guy like Scottie. Scottie hasn’t had a lot of pressure in majors as of yet, so see what he can do there. But those are the three guys that I’m really looking at. And there obviously at the top of the board too. I like Brooks and amongst those, we’ll talk about why a little bit later but I think it starts and ends with those three.

Flash:

Oh, I just cannot believe it because remember, short-termism, if Tiger Woods was in his pomp and it was in this field, we’d be looking at plus 300 and thinking that plus 300 was massive value. Because I remember betting Tiger when he was plus four 50 and thinking it was a gift. Now all of a sudden, we’ve got the world number one and I’m going to say that Rahm and Scheffler are both world number one because for me, there’s nothing to choose between them. But Nick, we’re talking about a player who’s like gaining 7, 8, 9 shots on a field from tee to green. You give me that player on this golf course, I’m not really looking elsewhere.

Nick Borrman:

Yeah, Scottie’s ball striking numbers are really historic actually right now.

Flash:

Yeah, they are.

Nick Borrman:

What he did at The Memorial, it was over five and a half strokes gained tee to green on the field. The next closest was close to three. He almost doubled the next closest. Of course he lost strokes putting. So talking a little bit ago before the show. I think, Flash, you nailed it on the head by saying if Scottie can two putt his way on this golf course and just not lose strokes on the putting green, he probably wins this thing by a couple shots. So it’s very-

Flash:

He can lose shots, Nick. He can lose shots.

Nick Borrman:

He could. He could.

Flash:

Because again, there’s a couple of things that I’m going to obviously shout about with Scottie because I’m not always been his number one fan. I’ve hardly ever collected when he’s won. So then I am a bit of a Jonah on that side as well. But his like numbers are in double figures, shots going tee to green. He can lose two or three shots on the field putting no problem at all and still win by five. He was nine ahead of John Rahm. And well, we’ve been spoiled recently as well because we had the PGA US Open set up, we had Muirfield, The Memorial US Open sale. The boys have had it proper and yet he came second and he came third and he did lose in excess of maybe five, six shots putting.

Nick Borrman:

Yeah, imagine what his score would be if he actually gained two strokes putting.

Flash:

I’ll be over. I’ll be forming an orderly queue.

James Mazzola:

I think the problem is, though, I have with Scottie, and I don’t like the price in particular is the fact that he hasn’t done that since he won at Phoenix in February. He lost eight and a half at Memorial on bentgrass greens. We’re back to those again. And then lost five and a half or four and a half at the Charles Schwab just recently. You’re not going to be able to do that and win. Now, can he just break even putting and win? Yes. And he’s done a pretty good job of just breaking even. But that’s why he has a bunch of top tens and not a bunch of wins because he could just gain two, he’ll beat everyone every time.

I’m not confident that he can gain a stroke or two putting and I think to beat this field you’re going to have to at least break even if he’s losing four, he’s getting third and then that’s where you’re going to have the guys like Brooks and the guys Rahm who they’re going to be right there because no, their flat stick is not in doubt.

We saw obviously Brooks gaining, which that’s usually his bugaboo, but under pressure, there’s no better putter and we know what Rahm has been doing for basically ever with the flat six. So I can’t justify the price based on how bad he has been putting just in this year alone. That’s why I’ll look more towards maybe a top 10 on him.

Flash:

Yeah, I just love the way that James forgets that he won The Players as well because he hasn’t got his money on it.

James Mazzola:

Well, he’s been putting and won The Players.

Flash:

I know, exactly.

James Mazzola:

Here. I don’t think. That’s my guess. That’s my point.

Flash:

No, no, no, no. Your point is well taken. No one’s listening to it but it’s well taken because Nick, we’ve, I want to put a line through so many players because I think there’s only maybe half a dozen, maybe eight players out the whole field. So 142. I’m going to put a lime through but I still think that there’s so many players of odds that are not warranted. I’m talking about your Cam Youngs, I’m talking about your Jason days, I’m talking about your Xanders, Thomas, and all these players, they’ve not won in eternity. And have not shown no form and yet they still are under the 30 plus 3,300.

Nick Borrman:

In any given week, you look at the numbers next to some of those guys and you’re like, “Ooh, this is pretty nice. We haven’t seen this number in a while,” but there’s a reason it quickly drops off. The odds makers are no dummies. They know what they’re doing. They’re setting the bait, they’re putting the trap out there, and they want you to take it. And I’m sure plenty will and myself included, I’m sure I’ll throw a couple on those guys because I want to say, “Hey, I had speed that 40 to 1, but is he going to win? Probably not.

So I think you’re right. I think it’s a handful of guys. One that really intrigues me, we can talk about it in a second, is Hovland, and he is finally got the proverbial monkey off his back. Can he keep it going for finally getting that big time win and he’s been close? So that that’s a guy that he hasn’t done it in a major yet, but he’s finally taken that turn around the corner maybe. So that’s where I’m at. But I agree with the flash. You get down to that 30 to one range, it looks very attractive but I’m just not so sure.

Flash:

Yeah, it’s one of those, especially with Hovland. I had him in the PGA, I had him at the Schwab and then I watch him reverse into a win a Muirfield. It’s unbelievable the way that goes and yet I take nothing away from him and although I had no money on him, I wasn’t actually thinking about, “I bet you for the last two weeks” because in them last two weeks prior to that, Scottie Scheffler should have won by 10.

So I’m thinking okay that’s just been completely mirrored. Now, all of a sudden the way that he carries himself around a golf course, I just love myself a bit of Hovland. But do I think he’s going to win this week? I’m not so sure. Let’s have a look at some of the numbers of the top 10 because these are players that we feel are going to be there or thereabouts or even come home strong but not quite get to the leader. James, who takes your eye there?

James Mazzola:

Yeah, this is where I’m going to get my Scottie exposure. It’s going to be here. It’s probably going to be in a head-to-head against Rahm. I probably have him priced about minus one 30 minus 135. Look, minus 125, I feel like he’s going to talk to him this thing 90% of the time. So we’re mispriced in general right there. And again, I don’t like him to wing because I don’t like the number that is a little bit closer considering you know have Rahm and basically even money there. You have Rory at plus 125 so I don’t mind paying a little bit of the juice for a guy who basically is a walking top 10. I don’t think he has 12 top tens already this season. So to me, that’s where I’m going to get my exposure to Scottie and I just think he probably should be a lot closer, like minus 175 to top 10 this thing.

Flash:

Yeah, there’s a few in here that I can put a line through straight away. I don’t really want to name them though because I have a really, really distinct record for naming a player who’s not got any chance and there they are in the final group on Sunday, Nick. But I’m happy to go against Morikawa and I’m happy to go against Xander Schauffele.

Nick Borrman:

Yeah, I would cross off Finau now as well. But my guy on this list is Brooks. I mentioned him in the last show when we did the PGA. I was a chicken though. Only did a top 20 on him there. But top 10, plus 125, second Masters. We know he won the PGA. He’s finally healthy, which is what he struggled with for a couple of seasons and obviously data is light on him. You’re not going to find a lot of data because of the LIV tour. But over the last three months now that you have two majors in the mix, he only he ranks second in total strokes gained behind only Scottie Scheffler.

So right there just with those two tournaments alone shows you how strong his averages are but, it’s major, it’s Brooks. Since his first major win back in 2017, he’s finished inside the top 10 and 14 of 22 majors. There was the season of 2022 where he was injured. He never finished inside of the top 50 in any of those four majors that year. So if we just excuse that year, you’re saying he’s finished in the top 10 and 14 of the last 18 healthy majors so I got to get a piece of him. I plus money on this. So I like Koepka [inaudible 00:17:53].

Flash:

Yeah, five major wins. Let me put a little pin in your balloon though because in all five of them major wins, he has actually played the week before, where was he last week? He was watching the Florida Panthers and enjoying himself and partying and having late nights, James.

James Mazzola:

It’s true but hey I don’t know if you saw he’s expecting now. So we got the Father’s Day narrative for our boy Brooks just got to get a couple in before he’s got a kid. I’ll talk about Brooks a little bit more with the outrights but a guy that I like here is another Southern California guy and that’s going to be a theme I’m going to have a lot of, so look out guys. I think Xander, it’s a perfect top 10 golf bet here. I don’t think Xander could ever win this golf tournament because of just what we’ve seen from him down the stretch at majors. But again, this is a guy who has a ton of top tens, top fives at major venues, should be plenty comfortable with this golf course being from the area obviously from San Diego but close enough it’s only an hour and a half drive up the road, up the I-5.

And then Xander’s this guy I want exposure to in some way because of how successful he has been. And look, you talked about an all around game. He’s going to gain strokes off the tee, he’s going to gain strokes on approach, he’s going to gain around the greens and we know he’s an excellent player, especially on bentgrass green. So Xander at plus 190, is a guy that I’m looking at. And don’t sleep on my boy Morikawa either. Obviously a member of that Walker Cup team. LA boy. Grew up right there in Valencia, so you know got a couple guys from SoCal there that I like.

Flash:

Yeah. What about Patrick Cantlay though Nick, because Patrick Cantlay has got great Riviera form. We also know that Cantlay is one of those like Scottie Scheffler who loves his stats on strokes game tee to green.

Nick Borrman:

I feel like I back Patrick Cantlay every other week and he just never gets it done for me. Any of the times he wins, I’m not on him. The times he doesn’t, I am. But he doesn’t ever play poorly. I know he’ll be up there. I don’t think he’s fine here as a top 10. I actually go all the way to the bottom of this wrist, list, excuse me. James, you mentioned Bentgrass green putters. Well you go back to 2014, that’s almost 10 years. The best putter on bentgrass greens over that time period, Justin Rose. Now of course, that wouldn’t mean anything two years ago but obviously he’s been a resurgence this year. Top 10 at the PGA, top 10 at The Players. Just outside. He tied for 16th at Augusta coming off of top 10 again last week in Canada. Fourth in proximity this year.

Second in sand saves if maybe he’s a little haywire there. Six in scoring average. But par threes we haven’t really talked too much about yet. Tied for 10th in part three scoring this year. We know there’s five of them here at LACC. Of course some of those are playing ridiculously long. However, he’s finished inside the top 20 in 12 of the last 20 majors in including seven top 10s. So three to one on a top 10. I’ll probably back him up a little bit on the top 20 market as well. But I think Rose has a good chance to be in that mix. And listen, he’s US Open winner. I was there at Merion when he won. That was back in 2013. Now I’m dating myself, but it was a while ago but he can do it. He’s proven himself in these conditions and he’s playing great.

Flash:

Yeah, I wrote down when I was putting the everything together with Justin Rose, he’s enjoying himself Master craftsman’s with the long irons, which you’re going to be needing to go into. I think if I’m right, I think he was in top 20 in accuracy from over 200 yards. So over 200 yards, probably going to be like a five iron for him. Again, obviously we are looking forward to the weather. The weather’s meant to set fair, so we’re expecting it to get firmer and faster as we go.

Justin Rose has won a US Open. So you’re always going to be thinking that. Listen, you might get a plus 175 on him, top 20 as well, Nick. But for me, I like Cantlay because obviously it’s his backyard. He’s a tee to green merchant. Do I want anything on Cantlay at around plus 1500 to win it? Not really, but I can see him being there and being a pest.

Hovland, I’m just cheering him on because I like, again, top 10. I like the way that he’s basically attacking everything and he’s such a ball striker. Tony Finau, by the way, this call sets up absolutely beautifully for him if he goes off the tee because everything for him I think is set up by how he gets off the tee. Let’s have a little look at the official picks please of the top 10.

Here we go. There’s plenty pluses, we’re liking that. But Scheffler, minus 125. Of course he’s going to finish in the top 10. So go and collect now, James, because he’s going to win it. Scheffler, a plus 190. Cantlay at plus 150. Hovland at plus 175. Koepka, plus 125. Justin Rose, a plus 330. I don’t need to be or want to be rude because I’m a real Brooks Koepka fan. I don’t want him anywhere near the joint. Because he’s dangerous.

Nick Borrman:

Neither does Scottie.

Flash:

It’s dangerous. No, I’m sorry?

James Mazzola:

Scottie doesn’t want him anywhere near there either, I promise you.

Flash:

No, no, no. No outright betters if you’re not on Brooks, wants him anywhere near the joint. If he’s going to make the weekend, he’s out early on the Sunday he’s posted something that’s still five six off the lead. Because by the way, there’s another thing that we’ve got to start talking about and that’s the winning total. But Brooks Koepka, plus 125 top 10. Justin Rose at plus 330. And for me, it’s Cantlay and Hovland because of the ball striking and the iron play.

They don’t miss many dance floors. They’re always listening to the music. Okay, let’s move on to the next ones because the next one’s top 20. A little bit more value here and for players that might drop away on Sunday. You then got the excitement of please let’s just get a par, get 19th. And there’s a couple of names on here that this course may well suit but then getting nowhere near the winners. James.

James Mazzola:

Yeah, look I’m going to stick with the theme of the week for me and I’m going to go back to Ricky Fowler. I know I tipped him for the PGA, he missed a cut which is his first missed cut in forever. For sure what happened there. But around that missed cut, he’s looking at six straight top twenties and we’re getting a nice little plus 200 price on him here. Just back to old Ricky ways of just scoring in every way with the putter, with the irons, not doing anything extremely well. Just very solid basically stroke gain total numbers coming out of Ricky.

He’s primed to win an event this year I think to get back in the winner’s circle. It’s not going to be here, but a top 20 bet for a guy who is just absolutely striking his irons like he did in his prime when he was winning players championships and whatnot. So I’m back on Ricky this week after ninth of The Memorial and hoping that missed cut doesn’t come like it did at the PGA. That was a little strange. I didn’t see that one coming.

Flash:

No, but the other one is Fowler absolutely rebounded on Sunday. Jack’s place, Nick, he is rolling the egg but he’s also throwing in the odd double and triple.

Nick Borrman:

Yeah Ricky, he’ll do that from time to time and I’ve been on him a lot recently too, James. So I’m right there with you as far as back in his top twenties. I took an approach. I’m trying to be diverse. I’m like thinking this is my investment portfolio, right? I got ball strikers, I got ball strikers, I got ball strikers. I’m like, well, what a about a guy that can flash a red-hot putter and win just that or a short game? And I’m looking at Cam Smith for that. Obviously we’ve proven so far in the first two majors you shouldn’t shy away from the LIV guys. Tied for ninth at the PGA over his last five starts. Worst finish, tied for 11th.

Yes I know that’s the LIV field but still he’s playing well. His putting it can be so good if he’s not great tee to green, he can make up for it over his last three majors combined plus 5.86 strokes gain putting so he doesn’t have to be perfect tee to green because he can make up for it there that the Bermuda rough around the greens is going to be very interesting for these guys to play out because for those that have never played in Bermuda and I have plenty of times, it is awful when it’s long and the ball will just go right to the bottom. And trying to get out of that when you’re trying to hit a short shot is flub, flub, thin flub.

Maybe that’s me. Maybe not Cam Smith but you get the idea it’s going to be hard. So anybody that has any sort of short game guruness to them, I will be behind. So I like Smith, and he’s the only guy really this week that I’m zoning in on. Not a ball striker necessarily. Yes, we know we can hit the ball but that he is actually better with the flat stick in his hand. So I’m hoping he does well and plus 120 for a top 10 or plus 1 10. I think it’s pretty good.

Flash:

Yeah, I just want everyone to make sure they just listen to what Nick said there about the rough around the green. So take a player or players that hit the most dance floors because yeah listen a lot of the times if you short side yourself and you’re in the rough, you probably will stay in the rough. I’ve seen clips where people have chipped out the rough, it’s gone across the green and it’s in the rough the other side. Long rounds we’re expecting here, James. So there’s going to be a massive premium on just hitting the fairways, just hitting the greens anywhere on the greens and then just two putting.

James Mazzola:

Yeah, you’re right. I agree with you there. I think it might be a little easier said than done though. These guys will absolutely have opportunities from the fairway but these greens, they can get them about as firm as they want to and so even if you’re coming in from a nice tight lie, I think you’re going to probably see guys missing these greens regardless. So I do agree with Nick in terms of getting a guy with a little bit of a short game Ackerman in there and I’m just going to go down to the bottom for my guy, Theegala. Pepperdine boy I know for a fact that they get on LACC in college. A guy who’s going to gain strokes putting. He’s done so pretty much every single timeout this season except they’re at The Players where he lost strokes.

But that happens every once in a while and generally speaking just the guy who has showed up big time in these bigger events. You are looking at ninth in The Masters in his debut. Fifth at the Heritage, which was an elevated event the week after. Hasn’t played as well lately because of his driver but that’s not because he is not long, it’s because he’s crooked.

So give me some wide fairways maybe that’ll eliminate his inability to hit them and anything on the putting floor he is completely live to make loves bentgrass greens obviously being SoCal guy. So Theegala I think at 330. And I think that he’s also a guy who is going to probably be competing for one of these major champions at some point in his career.

Flash:

I had Theegala this week at the RBC Canadian Open, so I saw every single shot of his right, right off the tee. Hardly ever hooked it, hardly ever pulled it. Everything was shoved right. So maybe a couple of hours on the range with his coach. Remember he is a West Coast boy so maybe they can get that right a plus 330. I like Si Woo Kim here at plus 260. Hits fairways, hits screens, doesn’t putt, won’t win, but I think he has the game.

If you look at strokes gained or accuracy off the tee, I think he’s at number four or five or something like that but he’s not hitting at 330. Si Woo Kim for me plus 260. Just putt his way around for four days, enjoy himself and hopefully if he’s in the top 20, you’re going to be paid handsomely at plus 260. James, give me someone else please.

James Mazzola:

Yeah. These are all guys that I’m interested in. We’ll talk about home a little bit later but Shane Lowry’s an interesting character too here. If we’re saying that it’s going to be a bunch of missed greens and whatnot, Sugar Shane is a guy who can get up and down with the best of them. And then you see who’s interesting. I think he can just ball strike the heck out of his golf course like you said. He’s not going to win because he can’t putt. But I do like that play a lot. And we’re going to talk about my guy Max Homa [inaudible 00:29:06] because actually, I think that’s your winner if I had to pick a guy off this board to go ahead and take it down.

Flash:

Are you nodding, Nick?

Nick Borrman:

Well I’m not surprised. He’s a California guy so I’m nodding the fact that I’m not surprised by his pick. I don’t know if I have the fortitude to back him, but yeah, I’m not surprised by the pick.

Flash:

Yeah, no he certainly does well on the West Coast. Doesn’t win outside of that West Coast, but this is, there’s plenty top, top boys in top, top form that are actually playing in our own neck of the woods. Nick, let’s have a little look at the official picks please of these top 20 because again, we found plus money on nearly all of these.

Let’s have a look. So you’re gone Lowry and you’ve gone Cam Smith up plus 180. Plus 110 for Nick. For me, Si Woo at plus 260 and Finau at plus 125 is really an insurance policy on the top 10 that I’m going to add a little bit later. Ricky Fowler at plus 200 say for gala massive Berlin and Birdie. 100 to 30 you would say in England. That’s plus 330. Okay, let’s have a look now at-

Nick Borrman:

Gosh, I wanted to make a quick joke on Lowery because I didn’t mention it well.

Flash:

Make sure it’s funny now if you’re going to put yourself up about jokes.

Nick Borrman:

I made myself laugh. So Lowry is like Koepka in the majors. There. That’s my joke. Is that funny? He’s just like Koepka.

Flash:

Is he 8-1-1?

Nick Borrman:

Now of course Koepka’s winning in finishing top five but maybe you don’t know this, Lowry is finishing in the top 25 and nine of the last 11 majors, but whatever reason this guy shows up in the majors. Top 20 plus 180. He did it at both this year too, and I haven’t bet on him in a long time. It’s time. Lowry, plus 180.

Flash:

I ain’t saying that he hasn’t won one, he hasn’t won a US Open, obviously he’s won on the other side of the pond. Okay well let’s get to the big money because I want to see who’s going to actually reign Supreme on Sunday. I just love this tournament. It’s just so everything you’d want if you’re a golf fan. Now Scottie Scheffler plus 650 there. I’ve seen a bit of plus 700 out there. John Rahm at plus 900. Seen a bit of plus 1000. Brooks is a plus 1100. The problem I’ve got that is he was plus 2000 less than a month ago. Rory at plus 1100. He’s one of those, you know me, I love Rory but I can’t trust him as far as I can throw him.

Cantlay at plus 1400 again, that’s come in from plus 2000. So is that then value? Hovland at plus 1600. I would say Hovland’s probably the hottest player on the planet at the moment because he’s just found a way to get beat and he is also reversed into winner’s enclosure. Cam Smith, Morikawa, Speith, and Schauffele, and listen, unless you’re mad, again, I think that they’re also in range. James, winners on that table? I know you’re going to be talking about Brooks maybe.

James Mazzola:

Yep, that’s my guy on this sheet here. Look, I have a guy who has beat all of these guys except one. Rahm the last few times that we saw him. And he got second to Rahm. He’s beat Scheffler twice both times that they were in the same golf tournament together this year and to me they should just all be the same price. So I’m going to take the guy with that with the pedigree. He has no problem playing on the West Coast. We got plenty of successful plan for him out here. And most importantly, look when it comes to a major, this is just a guy you want to have a ticket on outside of the one season like Nick mentioned where he was just hurt. He’s healthy. I don’t care that he didn’t play last week. He just played three weeks ago.

Why do I need to see what he did last week for? He’s obviously winning there at the PGA. And look, his game just sets up perfect for majors. That’s what he wants. And this golf course is going to be no different. It’s going to be just like every other major set up where he’s won five times. To me, should be the same price as those [inaudible 00:32:41]. There’s nothing that has separated them over the last two times they played together. Why are we getting separation now? I don’t know. So give me Brooks, and again, like you said, nobody on that leader board wants to see him on the back nine on Sunday anywhere near the lead because we know what he does when it comes to closing majors.

Flash:

Nobody on that leaderboard wants to see Brooks Koepka anywhere near it on Sunday. No one in this studio, Nick, wants to see him anywhere near it.

Nick Borrman:

Yeah, especially when you’re going chalk city like me with Scottie. Listen, he’s number one in strokes gained over the last three months, six months, 12 months even all the way back to 24 months. He’s gained strokes tee to green 26 straight events. The last time he did not do that was at the PGA Championship last year. He did miss the cut there. US Open always about tee to green. We know he is going to do that.

I’m hoping the learning curve of putting this week for everybody on the new course. These are the best players in the world, they’re going to adapt quickly. But maybe that little bit of learning curve eliminates his one negative, which is we talked about already in putting, but I’ll hit on what James said to start with the top 10 market, you can’t go wrong with the top 10 on Scottie to back up your outright. He’s in 16 straight starts. Tied for 12th is his worst finish. 10 top fives in his last 16 starts. He’s going to be there on Sunday. I have to take a piece on him.

Flash:

Yeah, Patrick Cantlay is one of those that don’t be surprised if you want to be bored to death that he is still hanging around on Sunday, by the way, because at plus 1400, he might have a couple of dollars on him just because you know that he does everything right. But has he got that killer instinct? I wouldn’t fancy Cantlay’s chances if he was in the final group with Brooks Koepka. That is for sure.

Let’s have a look at the next bunch because this is where I think that the pricing starts getting wrong because there’s so many players on here that I don’t believe can win. Cameron Young, Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton. Tyrrell Hatton, he’s playing out of his skin at the moment. And when you play this big boy’s golf, you need a big boy mentality and he can erupt at any stage. James, I’ll tee you up for your Homa.

James Mazzola:

This is my guy this week. I’m telling you, listen, a lot of people are talking about the Walker Cup. Max Homa has the course record at LACC. He’s shot 61 at the first round of the 2013 Pac-12 Championships in route to winning that obviously for the university.

Flash:

How far have you gone back there?

James Mazzola:

I was saving that one for you. I haven’t heard that one very much lately, but that is in his book. He’s got the name on the course record inside the scorecard, inside the pro shop. So look, you’ve got very, very ready for this. I love the fact that I haven’t seen him since at Charles Schwab. He’s just been in LA grinding, getting into that grind mode, obviously playing a ton of golf on this golf course being from Los Angeles. We know his record on the West Coast. All of his wins besides the Wells Fargo, which look, that has played a real major championship golf course often.

Obviously wins at Riv, no problem there. Very similar setup to what we’re seeing here. Same architect, not really the same golf course but you know get the same feel of a LA style. And look, when it comes to ball striking, when it comes to basically a aspect of the game, all he has to do is put it together for a major. He’s got plenty of wins. And where else would he rather do it than LA? I think he’s going to be super focused. He’s sleeping in his own bed and again, he could play with all of these guys. We’re looking at those numbers. I want nothing to do with any of those guys except Max Homa 25 to 1.

Flash:

Wow. Nick, anyone on that page that you like?

Nick Borrman:

I’m going to defend my buddy James there and say remember that storyline last year, Matthew Fitzpatrick won the 2013 USM at the country club nine years prior, right? Similar. Yeah, almost identical you would say. All right, I’ll move on. I mentioned him in the beginning of the show. I’ll go back to Viktor Hovland here. He’s a little lower at 16 to 1. But I wonder, and this is a stretch obviously, but I wonder remember two years ago Scottie Scheffler was the best player on the planet not to win a PGA Tour event. Now granted Hovland has already won, but he finally got over that hump and won a big one. Could this be the floodgate type of a win that he needed to really start competing in any tournament, let alone these majors?

His last three major starts, all top tens par three scoring is strong. 10th on tour of the season, six in proximity. Number one in proximity from the rough. Seventh overall scoring average. The big trend this week is last eight US Open winners. Guys have finished in tied for 13th or better in their previous major start. So go back to the PGA, look at the guys that finished 13th or better, the last eight US Open winners were in those 13 places. So he fits that mold as well. I think Viktor’s ready for big things.

Flash:

The one name on there that I just cannot believe the price is because we go back two years and Dustin Johnson would’ve been plus 1000 plus 900 favorite and now we’re getting plus 3,500 I’ve seen plus 4,000 in a place. And if I could cherry-pick a golf course that would absolutely suit him and give him a massive advantage over the majority, then it’s the LA Country Club because he can just steer it round, talking about a player that wants to cut it, fade it, hook it, draw it, then he’s got absolutely everything. So I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a little resurgence from Dustin Johnson.

And also, how much has that win from Brooks Koepka? May basically will just lift him and maybe that competitive juice because we know he is. And you have to be patient on this golf course, lads. Is there anyone more patient or more looks like he doesn’t give an absolute monkeys about anything that’s going on than Dustin Johnson? You wouldn’t know if he’s five under or five over. So I’m going to have a bit Dustin Johnson around the plus 4,000. James, what do you think a winning score will be around here because I’ve gone for five under.

James Mazzola:

Yeah, I want to touch on Hovland just real quick because a lot of guys are giving him a little flack for never having obviously won a major. US Open just produces first time major winners left and right. If you just go back with Patrick, obviously go back to Martin Kaymer. Brooks won his first major here. So I think I wouldn’t be afraid of Hovland because he hasn’t necessarily won a major because a lot of guys won their first ones here and I think he’s totally live. I’m still trying to figure out how to get a piece of him right because I would like him outright, but the price is really rough when you pair him with Brooks. So I might just have a three man card, I’m not sure yet. But I love that price. I love that play. In terms of final score, I actually think it’s going to play a little bit easier than people think.

I think that the soft conditions are going to allow guys to really hold fairways and when you give these guys clean lies, they’re completely dangerous with their irons. I don’t care who it is. Every single one of these guys, if you give them a clean lie in the fairway, can do some real damage. If they end up getting some heat and firming up the greens, that would obviously maybe throw this into a loop. I’m thinking we’re going to get about the eight under for a win here. And I wouldn’t even be surprised if it was 10 because although it is long, don’t like the scorecard folio. There is so many undulations, there’s so many downhill par threes uphill short ones. Par fours, and it is relatively straight golf course so I’m not really worried about the length. And again, because of the wide fairways, I think they can piece this apart, especially if it stays soft and cool. Like it looks like it’s going to.

So I’m not getting anywhere from 8 to 10, which is perfect. I love a nice little, I wouldn’t say a US Open birdie fest by any means, but it’s okay to get there. We’ve seen some great ones at Pebble get to that range. I will mention this at the very, very end. The last three holes are absolutely, hold on for dear life. They’re 500 yard par fours. So if your guy is behind, don’t expect him to come in and make birdies. You want your guy to be in the lead going into those last few holes because it’s going to be very difficult to play catch up considering the length and just the overall difficulty of that closing stretch.

Flash:

Yeah, James makes some great points there. Nick, do you want to be in the final group on Sunday coming down like them last three or do you want to be basically one off the lead but already with your feet up in the clubhouse?

Nick Borrman:

Maybe it depends on if you’ve already done this before or not. It is a lot of nerves in that final group and you know Brooks Koepka. Keopka wants to be in that final group. So does Rory, so does Scottie. Maybe somebody else that hasn’t quite won might not be ready for that spotlight. So it maybe depends on the player. I agree with James where a seven or 800 could win this thing and it’s like the PGA. There’s usually one guy, well not usually, but the PGA approved that there’s one guy that can just be lights on, lights out for the tournament and just striking the ball so well. But really if you look back at that tournament, there was less than 10 guys under par in total. So the course can still play difficult and one guy could just be that much better than the field for the four days.

So I do like seven or eight, but the USGA will fight back. They do not want low scores and they have a lot of tricks up their sleeve as far as pin placements and lengthening the course and firming this thing out to fight back against those low scores. But I think seven or eight could likely be the winner here as well.

Flash:

I’m just trying to obviously throw my mind back for the last two years and six under is coming straight into my head. Is that right? Is it six under? It’s been both of the last two US Opens. The winner’s been at six under, so yeah, I’m thinking five. Okay. You’ve squeezed me a little bit to give you six under as well, but I think that’s exactly where they’d want to be.

Anything around the one and a half under par per round I think is going to be very, very happy. Also, James, you was talking about Hovland and trying to find a way. Would you take Hovland over Rory in a match bet?

James Mazzola:

Am I getting like plus 130?

Flash:

Well I was going to say 125. We’re getting good at this.

James Mazzola:

Look, I think Rory’s interesting because I was completely surprised by how he played last week. I thought the lifting was going to be completely distracting. I thought he was just going to mail it in and be distracted by all the hoopla. Sounds like he just knew it was happening, which is weird because he talked about a guy you want to tell your secrets to. Because that guy, he didn’t tell anyone anything about that. About what he thought he was privy to. It’s interesting this week because I really liked how he performed. I was ready to fade him. I wanted to because I thought he’d be distracted and having to answer a bunch of questions, but he seemed totally at peace with everything. So I don’t know what to do with Rory. Obviously Hovland, just as a straight-up bet, I’d rather have Rory, but if you’re giving me 125, 130, I think that would be something I’d consider and a way to get a little action on Viktor.

I’d prefer him over Cantlay to be honest with you because I want absolutely nothing to do with Cantlay in majors ever because, I don’t know, he’s never done well. So even though he is obviously right next to UCLA and he’s played there a lot, just not the guy that I’m looking to back at a US Open. I think maybe his slow play negs him out. Pick up the pace, but I prefer a matchup against Cantlay, which I think that’s probably one that we’ll see.

Flash:

Yeah, Nick, there’s so many stats that we can actually just move and push and pull to fit our own agenda, but there’s been a lot of first time winners in the US Open over the last sort of 23, 24 years. And if it had to go to 25, 26 then I would say that as well. Who are the players that you think… Because I think this is so chalky. I’m not interested in any of them people. Normally I have four or five that are up plus 80, plus 90. I’m not going anywhere near any of them because they’ve not got a chance. Have you got any that are outsiders that you think could win?

Nick Borrman:

I guess anybody could, but no.

Flash:

No, there’s not anyone that could. This is what I’m saying. You up your game, you’re sucking people in there.

Nick Borrman:

Here’s the thing, if you look at the numbers, just forget just the majors, the PGA Tour this year. 32 events so far this season, 18 of the winners have ranked inside the top 10 total strokes gained over the previous year heading into that tournament. So who are the top 10 guys? The top 10 on this odds board. So it’s already a proven trend where over half of the outright winners are doing that in the major. I feel like it’s even higher than that. So no, I’m not really going far down, but I will have it down there for leader boards.

Flash:

James, what about Woodland? He was at eighties, wasn’t he? About 8,000.

James Mazzola:

I almost bet [inaudible 00:44:38] as my top 20 bet. Just hasn’t quite shown the form that I would like to see from him. But look, he was right there at the PGA championship after the second day. Just fizzled out on Saturday, but his game obviously sets a perfect… Can I give you Patrick Green as a possibility here?

Flash:

Yeah, you can because I was this close at plus 6,500. I’m thinking who’s the player outside of maybe DJ because I like DJ obviously, but who’s the player I do not want to see win this, but if they are going to win I can be compensated in my pocket rather than emotionally.

James Mazzola:

Yeah. Fourth at the Masters, obviously gain strokes, putting there 18th at the PGA. So obviously The Masters wasn’t necessarily a fluke and we didn’t know what he is. He wins once a year forever. Obviously not being on the PGA Tour will hurt him there. He’s had success in Southern California to winning down at Torrey Pines. And look, he could just flat out gain 10 strokes putting in this thing, hit it just good enough and get on the greens. And obviously another guy who is not going to care about anything on a Sunday at a major, he’s got the acumen, he’s got the pedigree and ultimately, when he was on tour, he’s a guy you can just pencil in for one win a year. He can play with all these guys. He’s obviously very confident playing against all these guys. Maybe a little too much, but Fatty Reed down there, you could probably find the 90 on the big guy if you looked hard enough.

Flash:

Wow.

James Mazzola:

That would be someone that would say, if I’m looking at that board down low, who I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see him contending.

Flash:

Yeah, and the other thing is with Patrick Reed though, Nick, is the motto for the LA Country club is “No one likes us. We don’t care.” So how they would absolutely love Patrick Reed to be their champion.

Nick Borrman:

That is funny. That is basically on Patrick Reed’s chest as far as what he wears is, “I don’t give a crap what you have to say. Nobody likes me, but I’m just going to go out there and win.” Try to anyway.

Flash:

Okay, let’s have a little look, see if we’ve got any Q&As Bruno saying, do you guys have any… I’m just going to come back to the outright picks in a minute. I’m just looking at my few questions. But Brooks at plus 1100, Max Homer at plus 2,500. Did you catch me actually talking to myself there? Scottie Scheffler plus 650 for myself and for Nick. DJ at plus 3,500. Viktor Hovland at plus 1600. I can also see maybe Rahm being in this and I’m not going to leave Kenley alone because he was at home. I want to go back to Bruno now. So do you guys have any potential long shots? No, not for me, James?

James Mazzola:

Yeah, just looking at the board, you got a guy like Reid down there. I like the gala, the top 10, but I don’t think you can actually win this golf tournament. I would’ve liked Fleetwood if not for whatever the hell happened on Sunday. That was a little bit of a disaster. But look, if you could maybe bomb at [inaudible 00:47:26] golf course. There’s a guy at Bryson you’re seeing down there in the 50 to ones and he’s actually shown a little bit of form when he has been playing in the majors this year. So those are just some guys that I’m looking at.

Look, if they’re down on on the bottom there, I want guys who are proven winners who are going to be priced at a level. I’m not looking for a long shot. The guy who hasn’t shown the ability to win big tournaments yet. Give me some old wily vets just going to make a lot of pars because that might work out here for the vast majority of the week.

Flash:

Yeah, I think it’s survival mode for the first three days, Nick, and just see where you are in the shakeup comes Sunday and then it’s back nine on Sunday. Any long shots for you?

Nick Borrman:

The one I’m kind of looking at is Eric Cole, 200 to 1. Is he going to win? No, but over his last, what is it? Seven starts? He’s got four. He’s going to be finishing the top 25 in five of those. He’s coming off a tie for six last week in Canada. He was tied for 15th at the PGA. We usually always see somebody sneak into the top five that you’re not really expecting. Wasn’t a Kitayama at the PGA as well? And he already proved he could win a designated event earlier this year. So he’s interesting as well. I actually don’t know what his number is, but Cole’s in really good form and is pretty good around the greens as well. So I kind of like him to maybe make a play into the leaderboard bet, but he’s probably not going to win. But I wouldn’t mind holding a 200 to 1 ticket with a guy that’s somewhat in close to it at the weekend.

Flash:

Yep. Okay. James another one?

James Mazzola:

Yeah, Wyndham Clark is a guy I think is pretty live here too. Coming off a win at Wells Fargo. Nine strokes on approach, seven and a half putting and route to that victory, obviously MC’d the very next week at the PGA, which look, that’s fine, you get sure you get a big win, you’re going to probably play worse next week. Comes back 12th at The Memorial in the exact same field gain strokes across the board. So Clark’s had a wonderful year this year. That MC at the PGA, and I’m looking down the list, I don’t even see one. You’re talking the Shriners 2022, his last MC before that. So the guy’s playing great and obviously has a little win under his belt within the last month too.

Flash:

Yeah, and that’s amazing that Wyndham Clark actually came on and won that because at the Zurich where they’re in partners, he was absolutely carried for four days by Harris English. Honestly, he was driving it sideways, he was duffing his chips, he couldn’t par. And then like two weeks later he goes and gets a winner’s check all on his own. The Cory Connors maybe a top 20 with the way that he drives the boy. He is so smooth, he doesn’t try to hit it too hard. He’s just all about hitting fairways, hitting greens. But I wonder what that damage, remember obviously he smashed it into the bunker on 16 a few weeks ago and then his chances were just completely gone and that was on a Saturday afternoon.

James Mazzola:

Plugged, if you will.

Flash:

Yeah, he plugged. Yeah, because Hovland, I had my money on him, didn’t I? He did it same place, same shot, same hole, same result. Completely killed me. Okay, let’s have a little look at all the official picks please.

Here we go. Here’s the rundown. So we’re going to do James’s first. Remember we have extra ones as well. So I’ll start with the extra ones at the bottom there Matsuyama, top Japanese at minus 165. By the way, James, I know that you can still hear me and you’re loving minus 165 because it’s only a four horse race. Jason Day over Cam Young minus 120. Matsuyama over Cam Young at minus 130. That is Operation Fade Cam Young. Top 10, Scottie Scheffler minus 125. Hopefully he wins. Xander Schauffele at plus 190. Top 20 we got Ricky Fowler at plus 200 and Sahith Theegala at plus 330. To win Brooks Koepka at plus 1100. I will pay money to that not happening, please. Max Homa at plus 2,500, only wins on the West Coast they say. And here he is at home course record and a little bit of data like last year, Fitzpatrick going back and winning the US Open.

Max Homa’s doing exactly the same. Okay, so we’ll go for Nick. He’s going with… Sorry I lost my train of thought there. We got Scott at top Australian at plus 475. Brooks Koepka at plus 125 top 10. Justin Rose plus 330 top 10. Lowry at plus 180. Cam Smith plus 110 for top 20. Outright Scottie Scheffler plus 650. Viktor Hovland at plus 1600 for me, my added is Tony Finau, top 10 at plus 280. And Cantlay at plus 150. Hovland at plus 175 for top 10. Si Woo at plus 260. Don’t worry, he won’t win. So don’t put no money on him winning. And Tony Finau plus 125 top 20, is basically to pay for my top 10 bet there at plus 280. But my win is Scottie Scheffler plus 650. Dustin Johnson at plus 35 just because he’s been there, seen it, done it and see them two, they both don’t have a pulse. So you’re going to need that over the weekend.

James, really look forward to seeing, first of all, I want you to have a good weekend. I hope you can cheer on Scottie through gritty teeth and obviously all your other bets come in. Nick, as soon as you’re on Scottie, I’m quite liking that. I’ve got like a friend. I’m like, we’re going to rob the bank together.

Nick Borrman:

Hopefully not a friend in misery.

Flash:

Yeah, yeah, don’t be bringing me none of your bad luck because I’ve never picked up on Scottie and he’s won nearly every single tournament, but every time I bet him, no good. It’s all going to change this week. So from James, myself from Nick, don’t forget we’ll have the Bretfred British Masters. So may all your bets be winners from everyone at BetUS. Make sure you subscribe on the way out. Thumbs up is an appreciation for James, for Nick, and for my producer and everyone who does all the work behind the scenes. And by the way, go over and have a look at all the odds and props we’ve got for this third major type in bet ustv.com/join for everyone at BetUS and myself. Come on Scottie, you take care.

 

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