Now, before I introduce my expert, I’d like to remind you that we are America’s favorite sportsbook, so I would like you to subscribe and also ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. And because you’ve got Grand Slam tennis events, you’ve got majors in the golf and also we’ll have big races leading up to the Breeders’ Cup once we’re done with the Triple Crown races in North America.

Now there’s plenty meat on the bone, but first of all, I’d like you to type in betustv.com/join and there’ll be all sorts of offers over there for you. My expert, my right-hand man. In fact, he’s my right and my left hand to be honest. It’s Brian Zipse. Brian, how are you?

Brian Zipse:

I’m doing well, Flash. I’m looking forward to the third leg of the Triple Crown. Before we got on, you said this was going to be the best leg of the Triple Crown and you very well may be right.

Flash:

I think this has got the best horses. I mean it’s one of those where I always think that the middle leg is always up against it because of the timeframe. So you’ve got the good horses that ranned at the first one being a Kentucky Derby. Then they miss it for whatever reason or they don’t get a good run in it. They give them a couple of weeks, few weeks to freshen up and then they come back to this one and this one is a mile and four. All the big races around the world, all the derbies, the Oaks, for the phillies, for the colts is always over a mile and four and it’s 12 furlongs.

Before we start talking about our contenders, we will give you, well I’ve wrote up six contenders, they will only be five now, but we’ll still mention that sixth horse because it might be a horse that we might see later on in the fall. But first of all, the Preakness, I thought it was a weak Preakness, a weak winner, but we got paid on a weak winner there, Brian.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, it really was a weak race. It was a disappointing race. Two speed horses, only a seven horse field in the Preakness, which is disappointing to start with. And then there was only two speed horses in the race, Flash and one of them, the connection said before the race that they were not going to go after that early lead and that kind of put a damper on the whole race for me. I thought it was really set up for National Treasure to win. He had to work, Blazing Sevens made him work down the stretch, but those slow fractions in a seven horse field made it a bit of a disappointing race for me. The Belmont will be better.

Flash:

Oh, a hundred percent it will be better because again it’s over 12 furlongs, so horses, there’s a maximum of 12 in this field so they can get themselves organized. If you find traffic over 12 furlongs, there’s a jockey error because you can get yourself in the right position. If you’re in the wrong position, don’t blame the horse, just blame the jockey.

Now let’s start off then with, what we’ll do is we’ll talk about the six horses, even though we know one of them is not going to run and then we’ll show you a clip. So we’ll start with most recent winner, well the Preakness winner anyway was National Treasure, trainer Bob Baffert. Told you everything you needed to know. I mean it went off at like, I don’t know, +250. Was available at +300 in the morning of the race and [inaudible 00:04:37] won. Workman like and had it all his own way. Jockey Johnny Velasquez and the Bet Us horse racing odds to win are +600. Not for me, Brian. What I put on the clip and you can talk me through what you see.

Brian Zipse:

I will do that. +600 on the Preakness winter’s not so bad, especially if you consider the Belmont Stakes, looks like another race without a lot of speed. But here you see them in the Preakness. They ran one of the slowest early parts of this Preakness in history, 1:13 and change. So of course the Baffert horse National Treasure was strong. You mentioned his race [inaudible 00:05:18] derby where he was finishing that race up well, even though he was destined to be fourth that day. Probably needed the race. He was better in the Preakness. You see some bumping there with Blazing Sevens in the stretch, but he was so strong after running so slow early. I don’t know if he’s going to get away with fractions like that on in the Belmont Stakes and now you have a little bit more of an X on the back of National Treasure. I don’t think the other horses are going to let him get away with a 1:13.4 in this one. Plus you got three sixteenths of a mile farther for him to carry his speed.

Flash:

Yeah, there was two or three things, I think every single box that needed ticking for him to go and win the race, he got. He came out in stall one. He dictated the race. No one took him on. He was then able to stretch from the front. He then started wandering around and looked vulnerable and then Blazing came and kept him interested by running upside. If he had been like a horse or two horses wide, he may well have gone past because we’ve seen National Treasure get beat before when a horse instantly goes by. Blazing didn’t do that. Blazing went up alongside and then he got into a head to head and listen, the runner up only went down by what head. So for me, National Treasure, even though he put money in my pocket, I’m not expecting him to put money in my pocket at Belmont Park on June the 10th.

Let’s go to the second horse though because this is a real horse. This horse actually took money in the Kentucky Derby. It’s Todd Pletcher who’s likely to be freehanded by the way. Louis Saez is on board and that +400, that might be the best you’re going to get. Brian, again, if you want to have a little look at this, we’re going to go back to the Kentucky Derby maybe three or four times with these horses because there’s proper horses turning up here and that’s why I’m not with the Preakness winner because these were proper horses properly fancied in probably the biggest race in the Kentucky Derby. So if you could just pick up where Tapit Trice is when we start the clip. Before we start, I’d like you to just post it there. So Bri, you can see Tapit there?

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, absolutely. Tapit Trice is down on the rail, I think we believe he’s about 14th place right there way back in the back of the picture. Pink silks, the gray horse not in a good spot because he is inside still and already Mage and Angel of Empire are outside and they’re making their moves. Tapit Trice not in a good spot here in the Kentucky Derby.

Flash:

And that all obviously came out of five. You can let it run please producer, because what you’ll see is that the race has already been killed off for Tapit Trice. Came out of five, horse from six, came across too much speed in three and four, so had nowhere to go. And here you’ll see him, he’s the gray halls in the pink and the yellow armlets coming around the outside. And in about 50 yards you’ll see that it’s no more than hands and heels and he’s just going past dead wood. So for me, he’s had a hard, I don’t three quarters of a race, but he’s not finished off having that hard a race because the race passed him by and the luck just was not with him.

Now over a mile and four I think we might see Tapit Trice. I mean, Tapit Trice is a danger. Brian?

Brian Zipse:

Oh absolutely. Tapit Trice was a really good looking horse. As you said, he took a lot of money in that Kentucky Derby and as we saw on the clip, he was just a little bit too far out of it inside. Maybe the Kentucky Derby, maybe all those horses for a pretty lightly raised horse. Maybe the track wasn’t to his very best liking. Louis Saez didn’t really persevere on him too hard after it was clear that he was not going to win or be one of the top contenders in the Kentucky Derby the last maybe quarter mile or so even.

So the Belmont sets up better for him. He’s a big strong late developing son of Tapit. Tapit of course has sired several winners of the Belmont Stakes in recent years. Plus I think the big sweeping turns everything would seem to fit him better, not at least of which, Flash, is the trainer, Todd Pletcher. He’s had great success in the Belmont Stakes as well. This won’t be the favorite of the Pletcher horses in the Belmont, but Tapit Trice, if you kind of look down on his Kentucky Derby, that might be a mistake and there’ve been a lot of good horses that have run not their best in the Kentucky Derby, waited five weeks and then really showed off their talents in the Belmont Stakes

Flash:

Was last year’s winner, Mo Donegal, was that not one of them that actually was really well fancied going into the Kentucky Derby and then came out and won the Belmont?

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, Mo Donegal for sure, but I’m even thinking of some other cases. Maybe Mo Donegal ran a little bit better Kentucky Derby than Tapit Trice did, but a horse like Creator not that long ago just didn’t show his absolute best. Tapit Trice seventh place, a little disappointing. Things would seem to be setting up better for a mile and a half Belmont Park, smaller field, a little bit more, a bit more experience under his belt and that five week break, which has been so effective for horses in recent years.

Flash:

Yeah, it would read Tapit Trice seventh, never nearer. So basically the nearest he was ever was at the finishing line.

Now, okay, let’s go on to horse number three because for me it’s going to be favorite. Again, this was your Kentucky Derby favorite for like 36 hours prior to post time. Again, Todd Pletcher. Again, Irad Ortiz Jr. and at +175, anything around +200, I wasn’t hot on him because I [inaudible 00:11:10] with it with all the traffic, the distance and the journey that he was probably going to have to have in the Kentucky Derby, I was happy to go against him. I’m in no rush to go against him at Belmont for the reasons I’ve already stated. Over 12 furlongs, looks like it’s right in this horse’s wheelhouse, Brian.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, there’s a lot of positive things for Forte. He didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby. He wanted to run in the Kentucky Derby. They wanted to run him in the Preakness. They couldn’t do it in either because of a small bruise on his hoof. So this is the two-year-old champion. This is the horse that hasn’t lost in a long time. He’s won a bunch of big races. The end of his two-year-old year, he won the Fountain Youth and Florida Derby to start the year. He was a viable favorite. He was certainly the horse to beat going into the Kentucky Derby before that late scratch happened.

I will say of the two Pletcher horses, Forte may not have a couple things that I like quite as much about Tapit Trice. Certainly Forte is the more proven commodity, but Tapit Trice might be bred to go that mile and four furlongs, that mile and a half distance that most Americans don’t ever see in their careers. A bigger thing over in other countries. Mile and a half is long for these horses. Tapit Trice might be more suited for a mile and a half.

Now we have Forte because of those not getting into the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness. He is been away for 10 weeks. I’m not sure that’s the best thing. It’s not a bad thing for a class horse to get on a track and prove that he is the best horse, but 10 weeks away is just probably not ideal at least.

Flash:

Okay, let’s have a little look at the last time we saw Forte. It was in the Florida Derby. Again, you can take this up though because he was out way, way out of his ground and he came home and at the finishing line you’d think the Belmont Park distance was right, right where he wants to be.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, it’s interesting looking back at this Florida Derby. Now what we know Mage did. By the way we didn’t say it but Maj is probably the best horse of the seven horses in the Preakness just totally got no help from the pace. But you see Forte on the far outside here running right by Mage and that’s impressive now that we know Mage is one of the best three year olds in the country and the Kentucky Derby winner.

Nine furlongs of Gulf Stream, that’s a little bit different than 12 furlongs at Belmont Park. Yes, he finished great in that Florida Derby, but I still wonder if Tapit Trice might be a little bit more of a mile and a half horse than the champion Forte.

Flash:

Yeah, there’s two things that I like about that horse and that running is that the jockey’s confidence may well play a part come June 10th because again it’s over a different, much further. So he can sit and be patient and just take his time and just basically fret his way through on and just basically stalk and make sure he’s there at the end.

Now if they go no pace, he’s going to have to take closer order very, very, very much earlier because if they kick again he’s going to be found out his ground and might have a little bit too much to do, Brian. But if it’s a genuine normal pace we can get the fractions in his head, I think that this horse is going to take all the [inaudible 00:14:26].

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, and what you talked about there I think is important because if we’re talking about the four favorites right now for the Belmont Stakes, you got National Treasure, the Preakness winner probably will be the four choice here. The three horses below him are two we’ve mentioned already, Forte and Tapit Trice. The third being of course Angel of Empire ran such a good Kentucky Darby. Of those three, I actually think that Forte has the most tactical speed. So I think we’ll see him closer to the pace no matter what in the Belmont than we did in the Florida Derby. And I think that probably is an advantage to be ahead of maybe his main contenders Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice early.

Flash:

Okay, let’s move on to one of my favorite horses of this season so far and I hope it stays well and we see it throughout the year. It’s Angel of Empire, Brad Cox, Flavien Pratt, and at +350, I will be having a little piece onto this Brian. And again we’re going to have a little look at the Kentucky Derby. He came third. I’ve already, it’s been well documented that the jockey got caught sleeping by the eventual winner Mage. I think he’s a better horse than Mage, I think on levels and with no interference and basically if the same jockey rode the same horse, Angel would come out on top because it has a [inaudible 00:15:42] foot from a decent pace and it had mid race speed. Please show us the Kentucky Derby. Brian, you can just remind me of my tiers here because here they are upside each other. [inaudible 00:15:55], he’s behind them here, but when he wants to go, he cannot because Mage has already taken his ground.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, Mage got the jump on him. Mage kind of pinned him down just a little bit there for maybe 50 yards coming out of that turn and that jump proved to be the difference in the Kentucky Derby. I’m not going to argue with you. I think Mage is a very good horse, but I won’t argue with you if you believe Angel of Empire’s better than Mage, she very well could be.

Angel of Empire has done absolutely nothing wrong this year winning stakes races in Arkansas and Louisiana. He ended up after Forte was scratched at being the actual favorite over Tapit Trice in the Kentucky Derby. Certainly ran a better race than Tapit Trice did. And maybe he too just like Forte a little push button, able to be where he needs to be when they straighten out and that’s a good quality. Mile and a half, it’s tough if you are five lengths back when they straighten out, it’s tough to make up that kind of ground at that distance. So that’s the negative I think towards Tapit Trice where Angel of Empire might have just that, a little bit more ability to move earlier like at least we saw in the Kentucky Derby.

Flash:

Yeah, but it’s also we’ve got to remind people that if the pace is too strong, then the likes of Tapit Trice, they’re going to sit there licking their lips knowing that the leaders are coming back. But with the likes of Angel of Empire and also Forte, and by the way, I think all three of them are better than your Preakness winner. So that’s why I’m more than, I’m happy to say that the books have probably got this right with having National Treasure in their fourth best. Maybe the next horse we actually look at could be a little bit better than National Treasure as well, dare I say it.

So the next horse we’re going to look at is Hit Show. Again, it’s Brad Cox. Manny Franco is your jockey and at +1400, whereas you had National Treasure at +600. Hit Show was fifth. Basically just run down there by, I think it was Disarm in the Derby. And again, if you have a little look at this, there’s no excuses for this horse. This was a creditable fifth with, I think all connections would’ve been if you said to them Hit Show will finish fifth in the Kentucky Derby, Bri, they would’ve bit, well not just your arm, right up to your shoulder.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, Hit Show ran a good race and one thing you didn’t mention about the Kentucky Derby, again that was a completely opposite of the Preakness. It was a very, very strong early pace and we saw horses backing out that were on the pace. Two phills stuck around really well to be second. Hit Show was the only one other horse in the race that was really forwardly placed early to run a good race, to finish the race off well, to finish fifth ahead of Tapit Trice, ahead of a lot of good horses. Hit Show also had trouble in his prep before the Kentucky Derby when just missing in the Wood Memorial. I didn’t think that was one of the stronger preps as far as competition, but show certainly was probably the best horse in that Wood Memorial given the trouble that he had.

Hit Show another, it looks like Pletcher and Cox have a lot of the main contenders here. This is the second one for Cox and one you can’t throw out. He’s come from farther back, but he also has just a little bit of tactical speed that was used in the Kentucky Derby. So he’s another horse who might get first jump on National Treasure.

Flash:

Yeah, or he might worry National Treasure. Let’s have a little quick reminder of what Hit Show did in the Kentucky Derby please. Because when you, they’re coming and they’re spinning around here, you’ve got him, what is he like? He’s coming into what fourth place now, coming around the outside. So again, he’s got a clear run, he’s got nothing like giving him any problems at all, Bri. If he’s quick enough and good enough he’s going to get what he deserves and he just basically flattens out and finishes a credible fifth.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, and that’s why we’re talking about +1400. He’s a nice horse but the Kentucky Derby was a good effort but certainly you look at this and you think, well two phills was better than him. Certainly Mage and Angel of Empire were better than him. He did stay ahead of Tapit Trice the whole way and as I said, it was a strong pace so he stayed on pretty well. But on the other hand, is he one of the top four contenders? Probably not.

Flash:

No he’s not. But one of the contenders now we’re going to look at, he’s not actually going to run, but I’m going to continue doing what I’d basically prepped because Arabian Lion was Bob Baffert’s second selection possibly going into this race. He’s actually going to be aimed at a shorter group one race. But the reason I put him in, and obviously you can just play the clip for people that may want to look back on this a little bit later. We’re going to watch him, I think he was minus like 300, -250 in the Sir Barton and he’s had it all his own way. But this is a horse I think we’re going to see again in other races like later on in the year, Brian.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, he’s a talented horse. I think the real interesting thing here is that Baffert trains both National Treasure and him and of course they’re both speed horses and you can see him taking this race over early and then just cruising to the wire here in the Sir Barton. Didn’t beat a whole lot. I think it makes sense that they shorten him up now because they don’t want to give their better chance to win the Belmont trouble on the front end and that would be National Treasure, but a talented horse for sure.

Flash:

Yeah. Do you think we might see him at the Breeders? Is he a Breeders Cup horse?

Brian Zipse:

I’m not sure. He’s getting better. First Mission ran him down in the Lexington, beat him pretty fair and square, but Arabian Lion is a horse maybe Breeders Cup, dirt mile kind of horse lush.

Flash:

Okay, so there’s one for your notebooks. Okay, so they are your six contenders. Let’s have a little look at the numbers that are on offer at the moment pre-draw, because there’s also, there’s a couple of non-runners already that came through to us this morning.

The 10, Sun Thunder at +2800 is a non-runner. 11, Prove Worthy at +3,300. So two rags. Remember we’re only going to get a maximum of 12 runners in this race, but 10 and 11 are out. And I mean 10 and 11 as in on that list. Not post because the draw is next week, but we’ve got Forte at +175 who anything around +200, I think is the horse to beat. Angel of Empire, I’m happy to go with one and two Angel wins and Forte comes second, fair enough. But I think the top three in talent are actually streets ahead. National Treasure you know is at +600. I think it might get bigger because I don’t think he’s in the same class. Preakness Hit Show. It might be the Hit Show can nudge out National Treasure for the super but the try, I think you just go 1, 2, 3. Don’t complicate it.

There’s a horse here though, Brian is Arcangelo at +1500, the number six there and another Tapit. Tapit is just absolutely flying at the moment and has, I think he’s had four winners of the Belmont Stakes. So the nine there, Tapit Shoes around +2,500.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah. Arcangelo, a son of Arrogate and Tapit Shoes are two very interesting horses for me in here as we’re looking. It looks like a couple of these on the 12 horse lists that we have are probably not going to run so we’re looking at 10. But of the ones we didn’t mention, Arcangelo certainly the number six and Tapit Shoes as a real long shot as a horse that I think is developing. Another one for Brad Cox, a third for Brad Cox also sired by Tapit as you mentioned, could be a horse that is getting better with each start and might be also born for the Belmont kind of like I was thinking with Tapit Trice.

Arcangelo, I could even see get lower than the +1500 we see now and be below Hit Show as a likely fifth choice in the Belmont. But Tapit Shoes is going to have some big odds come Belmont Stakes day.

Flash:

Okay. And obviously the eight there, Red Route One, that horse ran with credit and I think it showed exactly where he is at. Not quite at group one level but definitely competitive at group two level because he was there with maybe a furlong and a half to go and just did not have and yet the race for him couldn’t have gone any better at all. Maybe they could have gone a tad quicker if they had then Mage would’ve been so much more dangerous than Red Route One.

So remember to join us next week. Obviously, I’m going to give you our best bets in a second, but next week around the same time, 4:30 Eastern. We’ll have the draw so that means that we’ll be able to then start giving you a picture of how the race runs. But with the, we’ll have a little, no Q and A because again, unless there anybody wants to-

Brian Zipse:

Do it?

Flash:

Type in. Yeah. But maybe we’d have a look at the best bets [inaudible 00:24:59] we wait and see if anyone wants to type in because I think next week will be when we get the questions because Forte at +175, Angel of Empire at +351. One and two, two and one, I don’t care, but you’ve gone with…

Brian Zipse:

Those don’t look like my picks of the Belmont. I’m just going to throw that out there, Flash.

Flash:

No, they’re your last ones, but I’m happy because I beat all of them. Although you did gey the winner there and National Treasure at +450, but you are now then, you can take that off please producer, because I can give you Brian’s best bets and then Brian’s best bets are Tapit Trice, Forte and then Tapit Shoes. I’m a bit disappointed the Angel of Empire has not made it in there, but Brian’s early picks are Tapit Trice, who is the gray from the Kentucky Derby, had no run at all really. Forte, who could well be the class horse of all the three-year olds this year and another Tapit maybe around +2500, +3300 in Tapit Shoes.

But Brian, we look forward to next week on Wednesday. Once we’ve got the draw, we can really get our teeth into it. But as we sit here at a moment, Forte definitely looks like the one to beat.

Brian Zipse:

Yeah, Forte’s the one to beat. I think his stablemate is a big threat. And Angel of Empire, that Kentucky Derby he ran, got to give him a lot of respect here. May maybe I’m going with the Tapits a little bit too much, but I’ve just seen how well Tapits do at the Belmont Stakes over the years. So my top pick and my top long shot as of now are a couple of sons of Tapit.

Flash:

Yeah, I don’t blame you, I don’t blame you. Just remember to subscribe and ring the bell so we’ll notify you when we’re on. But just for now, it’s Wednesday at 4:30 Eastern time. So make sure you join us and if you want to go over to betus.com, type in bet ustv.com/join. There’s a load of free offers over there. But the more important one, make sure you subscribe. Brian, I’ll see you next week. From everyone at BetUs, you take care.