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Welcome to the BetUS Tennis, Horse Racing, and Golf Channel. It is the 151st Open Championship. It’s from Northwest England. Royal Liverpool is the course and that’s better known as Hoylake. Now, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook I’d like to subscribe. And also ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again.
If you want to get involved in all the action, then type in Betustv.com/join. There might even be some free bets over there for you. Please don’t be shy. Get yourselves into the chat. And when you do, get yourselves into the chat make sure you may have a few questions for my two guests.
From the West Coast, I’ve got James Mazzola. From the East Coast, I’ve got Nick Borrman. And for me, I’ll look after the other side of the pond because for once it’s a home game. James, it is the Open. It is one of those where it’s weather dependent.
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, and again, this year we’ve seen the last couple where the wind hasn’t blown and you’re getting into the 20 under range. And then if the wind comes, which I don’t really think any weather forecast, to me it’s worthless to even look at these things. Because first of all, it’s all day long. It’s the one on the Italian Challenge tournament where everyone tees off from one, they play all day, so you’re going to get three different weathers.
You could get insane amount of winds, you could get no wind. The coastal areas, and as you know, completely unpredictable. I hope it blows something crazy. I want to see five and six under. That’s what I like to watch, but it’s going to dictate it. It’s long nights for me on the West Coast. I’ll be up watching late Wednesday and getting up. But ultimately I love this kind of golf, it’s fun to watch it once or twice a year, but we need wind. Come on baby. Blow, blow, blow.
Yeah, we have a saying in England, it blows an absolute hooligan. I want hooligans everywhere, Nick Borrman because I love it when they have it. That’s why I think the US Open is becoming my number one golf event in the year because we actually see the majority of the field struggle. How do you stand when it comes to the open?
It’s hard. I mean James is right, we don’t really know. The weather forecasts are all over the place. And I’m struggling because I’m trying to figure out how the course is going to play as far as off the tee game. And we saw 2014, I guess Rory only hit maybe four or five drivers. Tiger in 2006 hit one driver. I can’t imagine Rory taking the best club out of his hands for this event nowadays.
But it will be interesting to see. If it’s wet, I would think you’re going to see a lot more drivers and people hitting as far as they can. And if it’s not, I wonder if we’re going to be hitting a lot more three woods hybrids, long irons, whatever. So I’m a little struggling a little bit. I’m trying to figure out, I wanted to circle in them off the tee and who’s doing well there.
But it does look like it’s going to be very gnarly because it has been wet leading up. It’s not like thin, I call it wispy, fescue off the fairway this year. It looks really green and thick in some areas. So if you miss, you could be in some big trouble. So there’ll probably be a big importance on driving this week.
Yeah, the winner of this championship actually gets crowned as the Champion Golfer of 2023, which I think will be right because I think we’ll see irons off the tee. We’ll see drivers off the tee. We’ll see every part of their game challenged because some of these bunkers you could go in there and you don’t even see the player in there. It is so, so bad.
And obviously I sent you the videos, boys, as I was doing my research. About six months ago, I started with this tournament because I was wishing my life away, but they actually changed the direction of the sand in the bunkers. So if you go into the bunker, it runs towards the face normally, obviously on the PGA tour and on the DP world, we see it hit the bunker and it rolls back away from the face. No, this one’s going to go into the face, so it does actually have a one shot penalty minimum.
Okay, James, let’s start peeling a little bit back here and seeing what type of player we want to be with. Because if they are going to have many layups, we need that 180 to 220 long irons into greens.
Yeah, I mean I think it’s going to be an all around guy. One thing about British Opens, we know the greens typically are slow. They’re running of all the majors, they’re by far the slowest. These things are running 10, 11s at best. If it gets windy they might dump them down to eight and nines. You never really know. They got to keep the ball in the greens.
So I think punting is a little neutralized. I’m not necessarily worried about the bad putters here because I think guys are just going to be able to ball strike their way around. Anytime I hear Tiger Woods and Roy McIlroy winning golf tournaments, I go straight to ball trackers. So obviously the greens are relatively small. There are some spots, some run-offs that look like they can create some kind of tight lies. So you’re going to need that imagination around the greens.
I don’t think you can just go out there and hit every green. You are going to be hitting some long irons in. All the guys are saying they’re laying up in front of the bunkers. A lot of guys are having those long irons in because again, those bunkers are treacherous. You can’t get in there for a one shot penalty. So yeah, it’s going to be an all around player.
I’m not sure it’s going to be a bombing gouge kind of guy either. To me, I’m looking for my iron guys really. I think approach play is going to be key here. You’re going to probably need to gain five or six on approach because if everyone’s laying up, now we have an iron contest. So who’s the best from 210? Who’s the best from 190? Those are the guys guys I’m going to focus on and try and get a hot putter, basically just be able to score well enough. I think 15, 16 under is probably what we’re looking at.
Yeah. But I asked you who and now all of a sudden I’ve got to become like a crystal ball. I need some names. You’re telling me ball strikers and that. Come on.
I just described Scottie Sheffler. I don’t know. I don’t know.
I don’t want you to say that name. What about someone like-
What about Morikawa? But Morikawa had played in these conditions on this type of golf course two years ago. And he was by far the best because he hit fairways and he hit greens and the odd part dropped.
Yeah, and I think the in-course OB is interesting too, right? I mean that’s another reason why guys are laying back. You can’t make a big number. I mean one out of bounds ball and you’re probably done for the tournament. Let’s be real, especially if you have to get to 16 under.
So top of the board, Rory obviously playing the best golf he has in a while, winning last week. Rome taking the little time off is interesting. Not sure I love that. Maybe just a little mid-season reset. And then obviously Scottie, I mean to me Scottie, he has 12 straight or 19 straight top 12s. He hasn’t finished outside the top five in two months, three months. So a guy who I think basically this fits him great and he played well last week.
I do like seeing that because that Sunday round kind of got a little nasty. And so the guys who played well on Sunday, I think they’re going to be able to carry that forward. There’s other guys at the top, but those three guys are by far kind of in the league of their own. And I would put Scottie ahead of all three. Or excuse me, the other-
The wind certainly blew last week at the Scottish Open. I wish it had just held off for the seven days though, Nick, because this course compared to the Renaissance would’ve been absolute carnage for the boys. Because again, everything. You’ve got rough, you don’t want to go into. Obviously you’ve got the runoff because if you’ve got on the wrong side of the pin, it’s going to go down into one of the bunkers. It is a massive test of golf, but who do you like? And how do you see your player that your selection is going to go about this course?
Well, I mean you got to kind of break this thing down into tiers, right? I mean you got the top three. If I’m choosing one of the top three, it’s probably Scottie just because he’s been the most consistent for a ridiculous amount of time. We’re talking Tiger-esque type of historical ball striking numbers from that guy. If only he could putt.
The next kind of tier, I hate Hatton but I love Hatton. He’s playing so well, but he’s Hatton. He just gets in his own damn way, just like he did on Sunday in Scotland. He was the betting favorite for gosh several hours because he had got off to a hot start and then he pulled a hat and imploded. And so I think he will play well. I don’t know if he can get past himself and actually win.
Hovland, I’ve been teetering on. I love him. It’s like the weeks I love him, he doesn’t show up well. And then I avoid him and he does. I kind of think he’s going to come and play very well here. I’m avoiding Cam Smith as defending champ. I’m sure he’ll play well, but I don’t think he’s going to go back to back. DJ has some interest. I really didn’t know what to expect with him at the US Open and he played very well.
I thought he was the best player in the US Open.
I agree.
The amount of small short putts he missed, but he kept giving himself chances.
So I like that here too. And then if I’m going anywhere down the board a little bit, I got to go back to the US Open winner. I mean Wyndham Clark, he doesn’t have a ton of links experience, but he checks all the other boxes.
Last, last year.
Yeah.
St. Andrew’s, last. I’d have James to beat him on St. Andrew’s last year.
Yeah, I have a couple good finishes at Scottish Open though. But listen, he’s a different player now than he ever was before, right? So he’s a reigning Us Open champion, for gosh sake. But I don’t know if you can go back to back majors either.
But at 65 to one or 60 to one, it’s a pretty good price on the guy. I compare it to, you get him at 60 to one or you get Schauffele or Cantlay at 20 something to one who haven’t won in a year. Who’ve never won a major. Just seems a little odd in pricing, that’s all.
You know the best player in the field over the last 10 years British Opens, Jordan Spieth. And we got big, big major winners around the plus 6000, 60 to one up to 80. I mean it brings in Scott, Day. JT by the way, if you are going to have a player and they’re going to lay up and have irons into greens, then JT has got to be in there at a plus 6500 because he is probably one of the best ball strikers on the planet.
But all of a sudden we’re looking and thinking because Scheffler, Rahm. And by the way Rahm is nearly doubled the golf odds that he was eight, nine months ago. So you got McIlroy, Scheffler, they’re taking two bigger chunk out of the market, James. So we are going to get very good value elsewhere, but we’re also going to get very poor value because some players are elevated when they shouldn’t be.
Yeah, I mean you’re looking at JT at 60 to one, that’s wild. Holma, I’m seeing at 70 in some places. I mean you’re looking at even a guy like Justin Rose who if look, we’re plodding around a golf course, we got a perfect guy who’s on his own soil, should be pretty at home there, 60 to one as well.
There’s a case to be made to just grab a bunch of these guys, the older guys especially, right? We’ve seen a ton of guys come from that 60, 40, 50 range, a little older. I mean go back to Molinari, go back to the Lowry, just even in the recent times now, and those guys are all still top 40 players. It’s not like they’re bad golfers by any means, right?
So I like that middle of the board. There’s a strategy here where you could just, you know what, if Scottie, Rory beats you, have at it. And you just load up on the 40s, 50s and 60s and you’re probably going to have a bunch of sweats there. Mostly because again, the guys are going to be hitting from the same spot.
So it’s kind of like can the guy get hot with a putter? A ball striker like Rose who doesn’t necessarily have to hit driver, which is his biggest weakness, it’s a great tool for him. So I think there’s a card you can build here with a lot of those guys in that area and you’re getting major champion winners.
Shoot, you can get Bryson, if it’s wet and he can just bomb driver all the place, 60 to one. So I think you could definitely make up a card in different ways. I chose to go with one of the guys at the top. So that leaves not as much to work with, but I think it’s a totally reasonable argument. You made just 40, 50, grab 10 of them and see what happens.
Yeah, massive. That’s probably, you’ve read my card to be honest, because maybe I’ve gone with say five out of my six elections on the out rights. I’ve all been between plus 3000, plus 7000. But also what you’ve got to look out for is the players like Pádraig Harrington, who are still playing massively, massively impressive golf on the seniors. And they are built for this type of golf course of just plodding your way around, no rush, and they find out, and then all of a sudden they’ve shot 68.
Okay, let’s have a little look at the prices of those players that we feel could be up there. May not win but you’re still going to be paid really, really handsomely. Nick, you go first because it’s our top 10. We normally have a couple of selections each. So let’s save a bit of time and, Nick, give me both of your top 10s please.
Sure. I hinted at one and that is Hatton. I had him last week at the Scottish and he had his chances and he ended up finished tied for six though. But the one thing I like about Hatton is I don’t trust him to win, but his consistency might only be second to Scottie right now. Over the last, year he’s got one missed cut in 28 events. Over that span, 17 top 20s, 12 top 10s.
Over just his last eight starts, his worst finish was a tie for 27th which came at the US Open. And every other finish has been inside the top 20. PGA Tour ranks are ninth stroke game tee to green. Six strokes gained puttings. Third total strokes gained six. Scoring average his top 10 in so many areas. And then he does have a rare combination of both accuracy and distance off the tee and that’s his strength.
He’s gained strokes in every event off the tee in 2023 except the Match Play, which that one’s a little bit of anomaly anyway. So he’s going to rely on his driver. I think that will get him into a high finish on Sunday. So I do like him for a top 10 at over two to one in our number.
And the other guy I’ll circle in on there is another hometown guy and that’s Tommy Fleetwood. Again, like Hatton hasn’t proven he can win on this stage but his name just keeps popping up in the top 10. And yet all it takes for him is he gets one random good round whether it’s Friday or Saturday, all of a sudden Tommy Fleetwood just shot 63 and he’s roared up the leaderboard and he’s right there. But then he doesn’t end up winning.
But three top 10 finishes in just his last four starts when he makes the cut. So that’s the key. He usually contends and in his last eight starts, he’s finished no worse than tied for 18th out of the six times he has made the cut. So again, when he’s there, he’s there. Three top 12 finishes in the last four Open Championships, obviously history there. Of course he’s got the pressure of trying to win on home soil, so I don’t think that’s un-helpful.
Sleeping in his own bed.
Yeah, it’s true, it’s an advantage but I also look at it as it could be a little bit of extra pressure. So either way, I think his all around game is good. He ranks in the top 30. He’s the only guy on tour that ranks in the top 30 in strokes game tee to green, approach, around the green, and putting, so he’s well-rounded. So I think he’ll be there in that top 10 or maybe top 20, but definitely I like him in top 10, another two to one number for us.
Yeah, I mean obviously he won’t mind the wind blowing because obviously this rural Liverpool and all of this are upper West Coast, I mean up in the north of England and obviously south of Scotland, is where all the amateur, big, big amateur events happen. So they’ve basically all played on these courses many, many times before they obviously take off for America.
James, top 10. I look at the top one and go, How is Rory McIlroy a better price than Scheffler? Yet Rory Rory’s the favorite to win the tournament?
That is interesting. I don’t know. Look, I make Scottie substantially better than Rory at this point. I know he’s playing a lot better. What Rory hasn’t done is basically top five in every single time out since May, right? I mean-
Seven in a row chasing down Tiger’s record.
Third, third, third, second, fifth. Oh 11th shoot. 10th first, fourth. I mean Scottie right now is an automatic top 10 and 125 represents roughly 55%. To me this should be like 75%, so I think it’s just an automatic bet that’s just a unit. Boom, tick that one off.
Again, he’s an outright bet for me as well. So both of my top 10s are also on my outright card. Seeing Scottie lift the trophy, probably the least surprising thing that we’ve seen in a while. This course should fit him perfectly, especially considering an all time stroke gain approach a year right now. I mean he’s rivaling like prime Tiger hitting his irons. And I think that’s what’s going to be necessary to be successful here.
And look, if we’re talking about iron play, let’s go to my guy Collin Morikawa. Okay, that’s my second pick for a top 10 bet, especially that juicy 260 number. I love that. I actually found a 280 as well. So a guy who hasn’t had a very solid season but for a guy like Collin who has so many wins, especially big time wins, it just takes one little thing.
So I like to listen to the press conferences and leading up to especially majors, I’ll just sit here and watch PJ Golf Channel all week long. I’d like to hear what the guy’s saying and Collin has said that his cut is like it was back when he was winning tournaments. He finally has gotten it back. He went through a little injury obviously. But gained six strokes on approach last week, excuse me, last time out at the Rocket Mortgage in second in a birdie fest. So obviously not afraid to go low.
Has gained strokes putting three straight times out. So probably has found something with that putter including gaining three and a half strokes there at the Rocket a couple weeks back. And again he has a clear jug in his, well he doesn’t obviously has it, but he has won this event before. I think we’re going to see a very similar score being shot to the year that he won it. And so again, give me me the iron guys and I’ll take the two best and then you can have the rest. How about that?
Yeah, I know I’m happy with Morikawa. I’m not happy with top 10. I want him to win because yeah, nothing gives me better. I love seeing obviously the cream rising to the top. And you and I both had Morikawa down there on the South Coast, now he’s going northwest.
But I’ve gone with two that I feel are absolute sleepers. And this is probably the type of golf course that’s maybe going to prick their ears up. It’s going to play to their strengths. Because I’ve got Justin Thomas plus 450 being top 10. And also I’ve gone with Bryson DeChambeau at plus 500. I think that both of them have the game to actually lift the clear it job, but both for different reasons.
I think that Thomas can go in here and stripe it. And I know one of them freaky, streaky weekends of the ball dropping. Because it hasn’t dropped for ages for Thomas and you don’t become a massively bad putter overnight. When it was only last year he was lifting a major trophy on the back of such good putting.
And DeChambeau, he’s just got that arrogance and ignorance if you like, he’ll just bomb it over the corners. He could actually, I’ve worked out, I think he could drive three or four of these par fours. In which case if he just gets up close, it’s a chip and a putt for birdie. And you’re going to need to take every opportunity you can to get birdies, especially if the wind don’t blow.
If the wind don’t blow, I think we’re looking at a minimum of 16 under. I think Rory McIlroy back in 2014, he won with minus 17. And I was looking the other day, I think they’re all four of the majors, they all have records of plus or minus 20. So there’s your top 10.
What about then players that might show up on Thursday, Friday, make the cut, disappear, but we can still get paid? So we’re looking at players top 20. So again, it’s one of those where we want to be making sure that we actually get good value.
Sorry, I need the picks even though I … Fleetwood and Hatton for Nick Borrman, two plus 240 Hatton. But also plus 240, that’s the same as Johan in the chat. He’s gone with top 10 Fleetwood and Hatton. Scheffler minus 125 is a given. Seven straight top fives. And here you’re going to get paid for a top 10.
Morikawa, plus 280. Hope his top 10 is a win. If it’s not one of my others, because I’ve got Thomas at plus 450 and DeChambeau at plus 500. Either one of them gets in the top 10, obviously I’ll have them both to win as well because they’re north of plus 6000.
Let’s have a look at the top 20 now then because the top 20 is one of those where maybe someone makes a late run on the Sunday after just creeping through the cut. Or they get off to a great start and then they start treading water. You can go first though, James, because in the top 20, the top two or maybe top three are no value. But then you can start getting these players that people are not really household names.
So I mean this is where I’m just pulling my Xander card out. Basically in majors, this has been an automatic top 20 his entire career. Has the first round lead at the US Open and proceeded to do what Xander does, and just kind of disappear as the tournament goes forward.
Not a guy that I’ll ever back to win a major anymore. I’m done with that. But as a top 20 bet, he has shown a lot of success, especially at the British Open. Seems like the kind of format that he’s very comfortable with. All around game and has been putting excellent lately. Gained six at the Travelers, four at the US Open. So on this kind of a golf course where I think it could turn into a little bit of a putting contest if it does stay soft.
I got a good putter in my bag at least. And a guy who just, he’s always competing in these major championships. A Guy that I don’t want to win, like I said, I can’t reiterate that enough, but he’s going to gain in every category. I think that’s going to be important this week to have that all around game. So Xander’s right there for me at a plus number that I love.
And then as my little bit more of a long shot, I’m going with Denny McCarthy. First time at the British, but again, I’m always listening to these guys talk when they’re giving their interviews and he’s talking about how he loves link style golf. His favorite kind of golf is where he has to hit 60, 70, 80% iron shots in the greens. And again, we’re literally starting like six under with his putter.
The guy hasn’t gained less than five strokes putting in a tournament since basically his career began. So we’re already starting at five under, let’s see if we can get a couple more strokes gained. And he’s been hitting his irons exceptional, obviously six at the John Deere, seventh at the Travelers, gained almost four strokes on approach there.
And has just had a wonderful year. I think he’s going to probably break through as we come down the stretch for his first win. But a guy that I love backing because you know what you’re going to get with that putter. He is the best butter on tour. So those are the two guys that I’m looking at top 20 and I do love that McCarthy number. We are getting a pretty nice little 375 there
For top 20. And the other thing is with Denny McCarthy, really showed up well this year at Pebble Beach when the wind was howling. And he’s been at the top of the putting stat for the best two, three years. And now all of a sudden other parts of his game are complimenting his putter as well. So yeah, good luck to Denny McCarthy. Because he’s going to need his skills around the green. Nick, where are you going with your two top 20s?
Yeah, Cam Smith won the Open last year with a putter basically, right. So Denny McCarthy, I think that’s a good choice there, James. I hinted towards one of my top 20s with Wyndham Clark, two to one on the number. Again these leaderboard bets, I just looked for guys that are consistently putting themselves into the weekend and then you never know what can happen.
And Clark has missed one cut in his last 21 starts. In a more recent sample size over his last 11 starts, he’s got eight top 25 finishes, five of those were top 10s and of course two of those were wins. His ball striking numbers are fantastic. He can smash it off the tee, which is always an advantage. And I kind of just noticed that most of my card is guys that can hit it a long way, so I don’t know if I should adjust that. But anyway, I digress.
Clark obviously doesn’t have a ton of experience on links golf, which hesitates me a little bit on the outright market. But I probably will throw some at it because his number’s so good. But he did make the cut at St. Andrew’s last year. I know he didn’t finish well but at least he made the cut and then he did play well.
He finished last, didn’t he?
Yep. Hey listen, that was better than half the field, right? And then he played pretty well in Scotland the last year, 16th, and then 25th this year. I had him as a top 20 last week and he bogeyed three of the final five holes on Sunday to fall outside of that top 20. So I was a little frustrated there. But I think Wyndham Clark can be there, he’s proven he can do it.
And then I’ll go down the board a little bit like James did on his McCarthy pick. And it’s Brian Harman. And I think this isn’t going to be a surprise, I think a lot of people are probably going to use Harman as a sexy pick, right? He comes in pretty hot, he’s got three straight top 12 finishes. His putter has gotten hot, his strokes gained approach numbers have rebounded, which is what he was struggling with.
So he does put himself into good position to make birdies. He finished tied for 12th last week in Scotland in those tough conditions. And he’s got Tied for sixth and tied for 19 finishes in each of the last two Opens. So clearly knows how to play this style.
He hasn’t had the best season so he doesn’t have great numbers to talk about. But what makes me happy, as I told you, I have a lot of bombers in my card. He’s not one of those guys, so he’s kind rounding out my portfolio as the other type of player. But I think he’s got form and he’s got history here in the Open. I think he’s combining both at the right time. So better than three to one in the money I think is worth the shot.
Yeah, listen, I know a lot about Brian Harman, I used to have him all the time when he chased home the Brooks in the US Opens. And they used to always have to go in because he’s not the longest, so he’s used to going in like 220 and a low ball flight. That’s the other thing we’ve not mentioned it.
If it is windy, you don’t want to be sticking your ball up there and allowing the elements to blow it anywhere. You want to be going in low, bouncing it up, and letting the ground dictate the route towards the hole. And Brian Harman is one of those that actually does think about it because he has to play every week like that. So yeah, listen, he is one of those that you definitely, definitely want to have on your side. I left him alone but that’s because I’ve gone for a bit more value. And a little bit more, I don’t know streetwise when it comes to British Open.
But before that, I want to ask the boys, just have a little think, boys, of any players that may not make the cut? While I give you my top 20s. Bruno says Any players that are the best bets of players to not make cuts. And I hope one of you says Cantlay.
Okay, so I’ve gone with Min Woo Lee to come in the top 20. Min Woo really showed up well in the US Open this year. And he doesn’t bomb it off the tee by the way, but he’s a great ball striker and he’s really starting to come of age. I say come of age, he won the Scottish Open last year as well, so he’s one of those and he is from Australia. Again, it’s one of those where maybe a little omen. Last year’s winner was Australian. Everyone be looking at Day, Scott, and obviously Cameron Smith. And there’s Min Woo Lee, so if you want the Australian, top Australian market, maybe you’re going to get a big price there as well.
And the other one from down under is Ryan Fox plus 300. Always shows up well around the Irish Open and then courses that really are links and windy. And then he’s took that form over into the PGA as well. So Min Woo Lee top 20 is at plus 230, Ryan Fox is plus 300. And in case you’re wondering like, “Oh I’ve never even heard of them.” They’re both under, I think under 7000, plus 7000 to win the tournament. So they are not also rents. They’re up there with the Days, the Scotts, the Thomas, the DeChambeaus.
And in fact Min Woo Lee’s at like plus 5800. So he is ahead of them boys and you’re getting plus 230 and plus 300 for them just to be in the top 20. Let’s have a little look. Julian Marr saying top Scandinavian, Hovland plus 130. Yeah, just be careful of Alex Norén though because Alex Norén is one of them players that loves to get in trouble off the tee of a driver, but you put a long iron in his hand and he can come home strong.
So plus 130 for Hovland does seem a bit skinny. You’ll probably get a better. I think he’d have to be top 10. I think Hovland would be more than plus 130 to be top 10, so you’d probably go that way.
Let’s have a little look at the official picks of the top 20. Here we go. Schaueffele plus 120. I’ll be shocked if he’s not in the top 20 to be honest. Denny McCarthy at plus 375. Might be his approach work that will stop that, not his putter. Wyndham Clark at plus 200. That’s a glorified just train for me. I’m not interested in that one. Brian Harmon at plus 330.
But Min Woo Lee at plus 330. He’s won the Scottish Open. And Ryan Fox has always gone well in and around these parts and in these types of conditions and with these types of courses. So Ryan Fox at plus 300. Okay, before we go with the out rights, boys, are there anyone you fancy that might miss the cut? Who’d you fancy, James?
Yeah, I’m going to going back to the well on this one. I think Cam Young has a great chance to miss this cut. I’m not fooled by a sixth in the John Deere against a bunch of scrubs. I don’t really care about that. What I do care about is the fact he only gained 0.1 strokes on approach in doing so. And just bomb and gouged an easy golf course. And you’re not going to be able to do that here.
The driver’s out of his hand, it’s his best weapon. He’s going to have to hit irons, which he hasn’t been able to do all year. And he has 60th at the Travelers, he made the cut and got basically DFL after. He has two missed cuts in his last six starts. So Cam Young going to be my guy to fail miserably. I think he’s getting a little bit of a bump from what he did last year and he’s just not that player right now.
Yep. Nick?
I’m kind of looking, I mean it’s hard to pick any of those top guys but maybe somewhere a little lower down the board, maybe like a Patrick Reed. Or a Sam Burns who hasn’t been talked about all this year. I think he’s a decent effort. I’ll say one name, you’re not going to like it, Flash.
Well, don’t say it then.
Because-
Why do you bring that sort of negativity to the show? There’s no need for that.
I won’t say it. Should I say it?
No, go on, say it, please.
Spieth.
Oh.
Oh, okay. Okay. But I don’t mind Spieth because I’ve got him in the head to head with Cantlay.
Listen, he’s-
So I don’t mind him missing it by one if Cantlay misses it by six.
Okay, that’s fair. Listen, Spieth is great on links, there’s no doubt about it. Just he’s got the injury, he’s been in bad form. That’s the only worry here. But he could probably just Spieth himself around this course and still make the cut. Because he’s just [inaudible 00:29:38] like that, but it’s possible he might not be there.
Okay, before we have a quick look at the out rights, what do we think of Cantlay by the way? Because he just doesn’t show up in majors. Is anything going to change this week? Because I hear no one wanting to be with him.
That means he’s going to win.
Did you happen to see the pairings? I’m going to talk about the pairings here during the outrights. But I mean in terms of Cantlay, miss the cuts at the Scottish, he’s a West Coast guy. This is not the kind of game for him, right? If he can’t win in the south, how’s he going to come out to Europe and be successful?
This is the guy that I’m not interested in backing at majors until he shows at least can I see him on a Sunday? Just one shot on a Sunday in a major please. That’s all. That’s all I’m looking for.
Yeah, I’m looking forward to just seeing many of the shots on Sunday. Because I’ll tell you what, them adverts are really starting to cheese me off. Just stick with the golfers please.
Right the outrights. Let’s have a look at these numbers. These are the numbers that are going to get you rich and obviously this being the final major of the season before we go into the Ryder Cup. This is where you’re getting your Christmas money because we’ve got Rory McIlroy sitting at the top plus 700. Scottie Scheffler plus 750.
I saw someone stick their head over the parapet at plus 850 first thing this morning. I went back an hour later and it was back under, I think it was 795. John Rahm at plus 1200, did actually get as big as plus 1600. Cam Smith’s gone for a walk by the way. He’s now going to be closer to plus 2000.
Remember we’ve got a couple of days to go. So if you think that you’re on a player that’s not going to be fashionable, then maybe wait a little bit. Brooks Koepka plus 2500 last night, now plus 2000. Nick Borrman, you can go first please. First page of the open, who’d you like?
I mean the first one I’m going to say is just boring and chalky and there’s no surprise, but just what Scottie Scheffler is doing with the golf ball is absolutely insane. Now if we all agree that this thing gets to mid-teens or pushing even 20 under par, if it’s not blowing, that might be a challenge for him because he just doesn’t seem to make enough putts.
But the fact that he puts himself where he puts himself every single tournament, is remarkable. And when it comes to outrights, there’s nothing better than I love and waking up Sunday. Well this would be early, maybe I’ll be staying up late, depends. But knowing that you have a chance. And when you’re in the top 12 in 19 straight starts and now seven straight top fives, I already know at least I’m going to have a chance on Sunday with them.
It might not be the sexiest price in the world, but I just want a chance. So I don’t have to get into him any more stats than that. Everybody knows how good he’s playing. The other one I’ll go to is Rickie. I mean I luckily was on him-
At plus 2200. He was plus 6508 weeks ago.
Correct. That’s what I was going to say is you probably missed the boat and kicking yourself if you didn’t take him back then. But I did take him in Detroit, which was great. So we know he is playing well. I hope he doesn’t pull a Jason Day here. Who was trending, trending, got the win, and then now has just fallen off the face of the Earth. But hopefully that does not happen to Rickie.
But 16 starts dating back to the Farmers in January. He’s finished inside the top 20 in all but three of them. The other two times he failed to do so. He rebounded with run of five straight top 20s right after he missed the cut. So he didn’t play well his last time out and I think he can rebound here.
On top of that, Rickie solid links player in his career. At this very track back in 2014, he was joint runner up with Sergio, behind Rory. So he knows this place. Of course it is different now than it was then but still. And he also has three other top 14 finishes at the Open in 11 starts. So he’s only got one missed cut too. So he does hang around for the weekend in this. And then if you’re going to bet him on the outright, which I did, I will, but back him up somewhere on the leaderboard as well.
Yeah, he’s just that goes against everything I stand for. It was like plus 6500, now he’s plus 22. I can’t have someone celebrate that he’s won and it’s like they got 40 points more than me. James?
I mean as much as I agree, I do do actually like Rickie, I’m not banging him with 22. Another thing about Rickie, he grew up in Temecula, California, which is the windiest place in the world in California, it blows every single day. So probably why he has such a good record there at the Open. 22, I think we can find another way to get him. I’ll probably grab him when I got full term head to head.
But majors over the last four years have been pretty much won by guys in the top 40. So you’re going to have to go to the top of the odds board to grab most of those guys. I’m going back to the well with Brooks here. Obviously everybody knows at this point cut his chops on the European Challengers tour. So no stranger to links golf. Didn’t play well the first day at LACC, and I think that he was kind nagged out over the fact that guys went out in the morning and shot basically the course record.
And we know Brooks, he doesn’t really like that kind of stuff. But we have seen him get low at Aaron Hills so it’s not like he can’t do that to win a major. And just the guy that the last three days he was right there with everyone. So I don’t really take that US Open with much. He didn’t like the golf course and this is a golf course that he should like.
I mean he’s basically going to be in an iron contest against a bunch of guys and he’s proven to be able to win those kinds of tournaments. Has been putting well, which usually his bugaboo. But just a clutch guy. That we talked about Dioso, nobody’s going to want to see him on a Sunday. He’s going to mark some people down and he’s a guy that I’m really confident about, confident with on Sunday in the hunt.
And Nick talked about Hatton being a guy that we’re a little hesitant to bet just because he’s a little quirky. I disagree. I think he’s perfect here. Sixth at the Genesis, I mean the guy’s been playing wonderful. In the last 50 rounds, he’s fifth in total strokes gained amongst this field. And so that’s just an elite golfer. And we know we’re going to get a good putting performance out of him. So our baseline is already high.
We just need him not to lose his shit basically and just calm down. If he misses a putt, that’s okay. It’s all right, man. He’ll have the home crowd rooting him on obviously, that maybe that will help. But I think he’s ready to win a major. And this is a perfect golf course for him to win. Probably you would imagine he does have some comfortable aspects of it being a hometown guy there or a home country guy. But just been playing great golf and a guy that I think eventually will win a major and this is a perfect spot for his first.
Okay, so your first one is going to be Brooks and what about your second one?
Brooksie and Hatton.
Brooksie and Hatton. Okay, let me just dissect this and give the Dr. Watson prescription or prescribe in here. Because Hatton, Fleetwood, Fowler, Hovland, and Smith, they were all at double them prices less than two and three months ago. Cameron Smith, you could have added by the way, at 50 to one. He then goes and wins on the Live Tour and then all of a sudden he’s at 1600. No way.
You got Fowler at plus 65. He’s had not hit a fairway up until this season, and then all of a sudden he wins. Yes, he was trending but now he’s plus 2200. I think you’re going to get plus 3000 come Thursday morning. So maybe hang on there. Hatton self explodes. Cantlay, he’s never won anything. In fact, producer, get that lot off of my screen and give me some value because I want to …
Here we go, here we go. Some big numbers that are actually going to pay for my trip to Vegas in just over three weeks time and I’m going to go for DJ. And by the way, I bet him four times already, James. Brilliant. I thought he was one of the best players at US Open, but he missed putt after putt after putt. And also if you remember, he took an eight on the second and then give him seven hours later, he’d got it back.
So mental strength is up there with any of them because he looks like he doesn’t care but he has everything. If this is an iron contest, when other people are taking seven irons, he’s taking nine. So I’m more than happy with that. And the best ball striker on that page is Collin Morikawa. Won the Claret Jug two years ago on a course like this, where they basically, the course was not long enough for driver so they had to lay up their best numbers.
Well that’s going to be the same type of system here because obviously they don’t want to run into the rough or internal out of bounds and somebody out of bounds. It’s going to be no more than five to seven yards off of the first cut. So again, you’ve got to make sure that you do not want to go out of bounds on Thursday and Friday. They may obviously on moving day on Saturday, have a better pop at it. And especially if they start to tempt them by moving the tees up.
But Dustin Johnson at plus 3000. And Collin Morikawa at plus 3000. They will be my selections. But I mean there’s a couple more on there. Jordan Spieth, I’m happy to go head-to-head. Well I’ll have Jordan on my side. Justin Rose, missed cut, missed cut. Tom Kim, okay. Max Homa, Wyndham Clark. They’re just going to enjoy their weekends but they won’t be carrying any of my money. But Xander just because James has got him top 20 plus 120, we will be cheering him on as well.
And by the way, Fitzpatrick, he was plus 5000. I saw today he was plus 3500. The amount of money that’s coming in for Matt Fitzpatrick, if it was a horse race, you’d want to be just following blind, but as it’s not, I’m a little bit wary.
Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks on the outrights. You know that all our selections get an outright unit or half unit, but these are the ones we have put forward for you. So it’s Koepka at plus 2000. He was plus 2500 last night. Tyrrell Hatton at plus 2200 who will fight with himself in a phone box. DJ is Mr. Calm, Mr. Cool. Morikawa is class personified. Scottie Scheffler at plus 750 will need to have his putting boots on if they go low. And Ricky Fowler at plus 2200.
I’ll tell you what the analogy is with Rickie Fowler, is you could have bought him in a sale like a pair of boots at $100. But now the sale’s finished, you want to go and buy them boots for $400. That’s why-
I buy high and sell low.
Exactly, exactly. You’ve got to buy high, sell low. That’s perfect analogy. Okay, let’s move that on. If there is any questions even though we have been answering all along. So Julian said about top Scandinavian Victor Hovland, plus 130. But just have a look and just see what he is for top 10 or top 20.
And then you’re not really worrying about the likes of Norén or any of the young. Listen the Scandinavians, they do like the old links course, especially with the Johnny Walker and things like that. And Bruno said, “Any players to miss the cup?” Well there’s Nick’s obviously thrown one into me. But there is quite a few of them mid-range boys that maybe are not well suited to this type of golf. Let’s have a little look please at the best bets. If any more questions come in, I will ask them.
Here we go James is starting off with Scottie Scheffler minus 125 and Morikawa at plus 280. On the top 10 for me, I’ve gone with JT at plus 450 and Bryson DeChambeau, that no one likes at plus 500. This course he could run away with it and if he does, I’ll be more than happy to carry his bag.
Fleetwood at plus 240 and Tyrrell Hatton at plus 240 for Nick. So both James and Nick do like Hatton because to win James has gone with Hatton at plus 2200 and Brooks at plus 2000. Scheffler at plus 750. Ricky Fowler at plus 2200 for Nick. For myself, Morikawa and DJ both at plus 3000.
Top 20 of them boys that might just drift away or come with a late charge over the weekend. And he’s got a ball striker and a putter James in Schauffele at plus 120 and McCarthy at plus 375. Wyndham Clark at plus 200. A little bit like Fowler for me, that one after the horse has bolted.
But I was going to say Butch Harman, but no Brian Harman’s okay at plus 330. And I’ve gone with Scottish Open winner last year in Min Woo Lee at plus 230 and Fox at plus 300.
Now we always add a few and we’ve gone with Wyndham Clark over Fitzpatrick. Don’t like that, James, go on record. So I’ll leave that one. Top 40, Gary Woodland at plus 165. You know Gary Woodland’s like a plus 15,000 to win. Top 20 Justin Rose is at plus 200. Don’t think he’ll win but he might hang around and just sort of flatter to deceive. And Adam Scott over Justin Day at minus one 20 for James. And again, look at that. I’ve throw in an extra little bone here for you of Fitzpatrick at plus 4000 and I have seen him down as low as 3500.
Julian says, “I will. I’ll do that. Love the show. Thanks, fellas.” Well listen, just please subscribe and ring the bell, which means you’ll never miss any content again. And we’ve got so much coming up because we get all of the Breeders Cup on this channel. We’ve got the US Open Tennis coming up.
Obviously I’ll keep tweeting out obviously how our players are doing, unless mine are not doing very well and then I’ll pretend it’s not even happening. But we also have the Rider Cup this year with every single channel in the next three or four weeks is going to go absolutely crazy. We also now have a Locker Room Roar as well, which gives you little snippets. Not too long, but they give you information that may well point you towards winners.
So, James, good luck. I look forward to seeing you back on the golf course soon, by the way, sir. It’s been far too long, you were telling me. Nick, you’re going on the holiday then we’ll see you for Seria A. Before that I’ve got to get myself to LA and mix and mingle.
But from everyone at BETUS, enjoy the 151st Open Championship from Royal Liverpool. And let’s hope, like last week in Wimbledon, I have the winner. You take care.
