Gary Segars:
I’m your host, Gary Segars, and this is BetUS TV. After maybe the most unlikely upset in the history of the Kentucky Derby with Rich Strike, we moved to the second leg of 2022 Triple Crown trilogy of horse races, albeit without the Derby one, who will actually be sitting out of this round.
Gary Segars:
Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday, May 21st at the Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland, where it’s been held since 1873. As we said when we discussed the Kentucky Derby, casual sports fans know about the Triple Crown, but how many people really know how to bet on horse races? What kind of track are we looking at? Can the results from the Derby actually help us with this race, etc. What are the strategies for betting on the Preakness? On today’s show, welcome back, BetUS sports betting expert, Flash Watson, to help us learn how to win betting on the Preakness Stakes. Flash, we appreciate you giving us some time.
Flash Watson:
“How to win.” I had second, third, and fourth in the Derby. It was like, “Where did Rich Strike come from?” It’s like, “Oh my God.” Well, at least I was with the whole nation. Yeah, great race. And it’s one of those that even when you obviously hit the pose with second and third and fourth, it’s sport. And that’s why we love it because its unscripted drama.
Gary Segars:
You have got that right. Now we know the Kentucky Derby ran 20 horses.
Flash Watson:
Yes.
Gary Segars:
Go ahead and tell me how many horses run in the Preakness? Is it the same kind of setup here?
Flash Watson:
No, it’s a lot different because obviously we’ve only got a two-week gap. We got some horses that would’ve missed out in the Derby that would’ve made Preakness their total aim, but we’re going to end up with nine.
Flash Watson:
So again, less than half the field, which then, obviously, makes up for… Each horse is not going to have a hard luck story. The only problem I have is that they won’t go too fast, so we might not see a closer. So I expect horses to have the run of the race. I expect the horses at the front to end up there at the end, but it’s a lot easier for the jockeys and for the horses, because, obviously, there’s no massive traffic problems and having only nine, you’ve got like a two furlong start to get yourself ready and momentum rolling into that long sweeping first turn.
Gary Segars:
Now the Preakness Stakes are held at the Pimlico Race Course. Can you describe the track for us? How long is the track compared to Churchill Downs, etc.?
Flash Watson:
Yeah, it’s basically the same length, but what it is also, it’s like they have longer sweeping turns. The Preakness is actually over a mile and three sixteenths, which is like half a furlong, which is about 104 yards shorter than the Derby. But the whole thing revolves around the amount of runners. Because the turns are so long and sweeping, you do not want to be on the outside of horses. Maybe if you was in a 20 horse field, but in a nine, you’re going to be no more than maybe two or three horse whips off of the rail.
Flash Watson:
Now in recent times, like last year, Medina Spirit went to the front and it runs about two or three horses off the rail. It’s like long and sweeping, you don’t want to be tight to that rail. You want to be sort of sling-shotting around. So you don’t have traffic problems, you make sure that you maybe get a lead, but you don’t go wide. Because if you go wide, you’re going to give up three or four limbs. And it’s the same two furlong run in. So there’s no hard luck stories because two furlongs. You can be out the back if they’ve gone too quick, but normally in the Preakness… I mean, obviously, last year we had the three horses that went clear. Normally if you’re up in the van, you’re going to be there at the wire.
Gary Segars:
Now we did see in the Kentucky Derby, it seemed like some of the favorites maybe ran a little bit out of gas towards the end with this being a shorter track. We’ll just talk about this, Epicenter, who finished second at the Derby is a massive favorite here. What type of horse lends well to this track?
Flash Watson:
Yeah, Epicenter, a strong traveling horse who can basically sit up. He’s coming out of eight, which is absolutely perfect. Maybe the pace will come from the fresh horse in the race, which is Early Voting. He sits maybe a length off just on his girth. And the big thing with Epicenter is he presses a button and it’s an instant reaction.
Flash Watson:
Now there’s a caveat to everything we say about horses that have come from the Derby to the Preakness, because you don’t know if they’re going to bounce. And then the word bounce means that, yes, they look like they’re jumping about at home and they’re all happy and they’re going to be entered, but you don’t know what’s in the engine until you press that button. Now I have full faith that Epicenter maybe went maybe two or three strides too quickly in the Derby. But in this race, I mean it’s half a furlong shorter. He’s the class horse in the race. I think that he stalks Early Voting and when he presses the button, he then goes by and puts this race to bed.
Gary Segars:
Now you mentioned there’s only nine horses in this one. What is the difference in the way that horses are selected for the Preakness field, as opposed to the Derby?
Flash Watson:
Well, I mean, it’s open only again to three rolls, but we’ve actually got the Oaks winner, which Oaks is obviously for the fillies. And Secret Oath, she won her race, but again, that was only a day before the Derby. So the bounce factor is there for her as well. I’m not a fan of having the Derby and the Preakness and then, obviously, the Belmont in a five-week window.
Flash Watson:
I used to own horses. I was brought up around in the stables of training horses. And we would say that 21 to 25, 30 days was ideal for a horse. These horses have got a 14 day turnaround. And that’s why, like last year, we had an 11 to one winner. I hope, because, obviously, I’m on Epicenter again. And I got it at plus 250, even though it’s now morning line plus 120, I hope that it’s not a bounce. I hope that the fresh horses do not come here and beat them horses that a hard race in either the Oaks or in the Derby. So basically, it’s still open to them three year olds. They’ve got to have enough qualification points, but it’s only for three year olds, fillies and the colts.
Gary Segars:
Now we did ask this with the Derby, and this kind of ties into that last question, are there new contenders to look out for each year? Or is there a certain type of horse that dominates the track?
Flash Watson:
Yeah, well, there’s no new contenders because, obviously, it’s an age category. So there are all the three year olds. So they normally come through in the fall and then they have the Breeder’s Cup and then the champions races, and then it’s how they winter. Now all of these horses now that run either in the Oaks and, obviously, there’ll be horses that maybe ran earlier on in the qualifying races. I always say like the Blue Grass, or the Florida, or the Louisiana Derby, or the Wood Memorial that they might have a long [inaudible 00:06:51] and then we’ll see them again later on in the year heading towards the breeders. But the majority of their goals is this five-week window of either the Oaks, the Preakness and the Belmont, or the Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont. And, obviously, that’s what makes up the Triple Crown. So this is normally their goal. And then if they do do well, not many of them stay in training, to be honest.
Gary Segars:
Yeah. They only got one shot, only one shot. Let’s talk about the betting. Let’s talk about the wagering. We discussed it on the Derby video, but the most common bets to make are a bet to win, a bet to place, and a bet to show. Aside from those three most common ways to bet, we also discussed exotic wagers. Now we went over it before, but can you tell the viewers again, what is an exotic wager along with a boxed wager?
Flash Watson:
Well, I mean the most common one is obviously an Exacta, where you pick up first and second. Or you go with a Tri, which is obviously Tri meaning there’s three. So you can have one, two, three. You can also box them so they can come in any order. Also, you can have the Super-Tri, which is a four. You can have four horses and they can come in like that. But a lot of people, they like to box their horses, which means they pick maybe three horses and if they come first and second, and it’s basically like having maybe six or seven bets within an individual. And obviously you can do the Tote as well. And the Tote is basically you all put your money into a pool and then at the end, it’ll tell you how much you’re going to win.
Gary Segars:
Now let’s get into the strategies here. I am still a novice. I did bet the last one, but I bet Mo Donegal to finish top five. So I cashed on that.
Flash Watson:
We had a conversation about that and we didn’t… Was Mo Donegal not in the coffin box at number one?
Gary Segars:
He was very close. I didn’t do any Trifectas or Superfectas or anything. I just did two finish top five and I cashed. And I felt pretty good about that. But I am still a novice here. What should we look for to help us win? What strategies can viewers used to bet on the Preakness Stakes?
Flash Watson:
Well, first of all, I would say that maybe just have a little look at some of the videos. I mean, a lot of people would just go by the name and a lot of people went with like Rich Strike just for the romance. But I would look at the videos of maybe how the horses have run before. If some of the horses have run up against them. Now you mentioned Mo Donegal. Well, the horse that did not run in Derby who got beat by Mo Donegal is Early Voting. Early Voting will be the freshest horse in this race. So if you’d like Mo Donegal, then maybe you will like early voting because Mo Donegal only mowed down Early Voting in the last strides in the Wood Memorial.
Gary Segars:
Then now, tell me this, how important is the draw in the Preakness, with only nine horses?
Flash Watson:
No, no, no, no worries. Nine horses. No, no, no. I mean, I wouldn’t like to be in the one again, only because if you’re not quick off the mark, you can get [inaudible 00:09:50], but you’ve got like a mile and three sixteenths to organize yourself and there’s not going to be a lot of traffic. I see no excuses with the draw, really, whether you are one or whether you are nine.
Gary Segars:
Now we did see in the Kentucky Derby, Rich Strike’s jockey really, really kind of… I’m not going to say laid into him, but really was aggressive with getting him across that finish line. In this race, what are we looking for in a jockey here?
Flash Watson:
One that settles his horse very, very quickly. I thought that if you was looking for two horses that came out of the Derby, one is going to run one isn’t. Again, we got to mention Epicenter because he sat six or seven off, switched off, made his move, came round, went three lengths clear, because of that instant pressing of the button that we mentioned before. And Zandon, because Zandon sat three lengths off of Epicenter and he followed him through and they only got done by that closer. And the closer came and had everything to benefit because of the pace, the pace was so fast. In this, there’s going to be no war upfront. Early Voting I think it’s going to get his own way up front. Epicenter’s probably going to sit second, and then it’s going to be down to Simplification or Secret Oath. I mean the four of them are really head and shoulders above the others.
Gary Segars:
Now, before you place your wagers, do you try and picture how the race is going to be run? It sounds like you’ve already got an idea of how you think it goes.
Flash Watson:
Yeah, we did in a Derby and we got it nailed on apart from a horse. And this is the other side of it, we had second, third and fourth [inaudible 00:11:20] best, because the winner wasn’t even in the race, Gary. When we did the show on the Thursday, the winner was not in the race. The winner came because a horse dropped out and it got in on Friday morning. So there was nothing we could do and I still wouldn’t have wanted to be with it. But because the pace was so, so fast early on, then it played into its hands. And by the way, all credit to it, the way it came home.
Flash Watson:
But yeah, the way I see this race is Early Voting goes to the front Epicenter sits close up. I think Secret Oath probably be two, three, maybe four lengths off of with Simplification. And then it’ll just be whether when Epicenter presses the button, whether he takes enough out the field and he gives him enough time to get back at him. I think that Epicenter wins the race because of that initial turn of [inaudible 00:12:09] coming into the straight.
Gary Segars:
I like it. Flash, thank you for continuing to help us learn how to bet on horse racing and specifically this time, the Preakness Stakes. Can you go ahead and tell all the viewers where they can find your content online?
Flash Watson:
Yeah, on the BetUS TV on the BetUS Soccer Channel on the BetUS Golf, Horse Racing and Tennis Channel and, obviously, at BetUS TV on Twitter. So listen, anytime, any questions. I don’t mind. Fire them at me and I’m only too happy to answer them.
Gary Segars:
Sounds fantastic. All right. Continue to watch BetUS TV for all of your how-to gamble on sports videos. We’ll see you again next time. Don’t forget to check our sportsbook!
