TJ Rives:
For Canelo, he is arguably the biggest name in the sport, certainly the biggest non heavyweight name in the sport. So, that will be next weekend but we’ll talk a little bit about it here. Let’s say first, for all of you that are participating in the chat, hang in there. We’re going to get to some of your comments, questions, we’ll have time for that. By the way, hit the like button, hit the bell, make sure you’re subscribing. We are seeing the subscribers rise and rise, the live audience has been rising as well. You can help us out by helping us promote, hit the like button, hit the subscribe button and share it out. I believe we can get, by the end of next weekend, to a thousand subscribers on this channel. That’s a goal of ours, let’s get it there with your help watching us here on BetUS.
Dan Rafael:
We’re close, we’re close.
TJ Rives:
Yes, we’ve crossed across 800 and may even cross across 850 by the time this show is up today, the live show today. Let’s maybe even get across 900 if we can, peeps. Subscribe. If you’re in the live chat, subscribe if you haven’t done so already, keep spreading the word, we have lots to get to. Housekeeping out of the way, we do have a fight to talk about. It is a prospects battle, it is the main event for Showtime’s Shobox card. It is coming up here, coming up this evening in Atlantic City, Friday night. As we release things, we will see now this main event fight. Very interesting battle in the junior welterweight division. Let’s take a look at Joseph Adorno and Roldan of Argentina making his first trip into the United States as an unbeaten fighter, these are 140-pound fighters.
Dan, pick it up here because, again, these are not the biggest household names but we’ve got a very evenly matched fight it looks like for Atlantic City on Friday night.
Dan Rafael:
It is an intriguing fight. It is a prospect fight, like you said, but not all prospects are built equally, let’s say. These are not the gold medal winners, the big Olympic fighters. This is a fight where there’s questions about both guys because we haven’t seen them necessarily tested against the best and done well against. And now, take Joseph Adorno, for example. He’s 23 years old, from Pennsylvania, known as a big puncher but as a lightweight. He has now moved up to the junior welterweight division, this will be his third fight officially in that weight class because he was having trouble making 135 pounds. There are those who would tell you that he should still be fighting at 135 pounds and he lacks the discipline to maintain fighting in the lightweight division, that he’s too small for the junior welterweight division. So, that’s one thing.
He has suffered a loss that was an upset, he has two draws not too long before that. One of the draws was against Michel Rivera, for example, excellent, a lightweight up and comer, forgivable certainly. And since he’s went to the junior welterweight division in the last two fights, he scored knockouts, carrying his power apparently. However, if you look deeper into the numbers, the opponents that he knocked out in the junior welterweight fights that I just mentioned were guys who were sub 500 opponents. In other words, get his confidence back, let him go in there and blast the guy out and that’s exactly what he did. And again, he’s 23 years old, 16-1-2 so it’s too soon to write the kid off.
And then you take a look at the opponent he’s fighting in Hugo Alberto Roldan, as you mentioned, his first fight in the United States. Now, he’s an older fighter. Not old, just older, only 29 years old. We don’t know a lot about him but he was a good amateur, he was 54 and one, he is the guy that was supposed to be in this fight in the first place. I should mention that Joseph Adorno was not the original opponent for Roldan, it was originally supposed to be a fighter named Shinard Bunch who dropped out of the fight a few weeks ago claiming some personal issues. So, he’s off the show and Adorno accepted the fight right away. He said at the news conference yesterday, as soon as they offered, the main manager called me up, said what do you think, he said I’m in.
And so, yeah, I like to see that, I like guys excited and ready to go. The fight is tonight, on Friday night, so the weigh in took place yesterday, no issues there. Again, there shouldn’t be now that he’s in the heavier weight division. But the thing about his opponent that is intriguing to me, Roldan, is that he is from Argentina but he is now training in Southern California, in the Sebastian Fundora Gym with Sebastian’s father. Sebastian’s sister, also a professional. Sebastian Fundora is one of the best junior middleweight contenders on the rise in the sport, undefeated, has one of the interim titles and is going places it seems like.
The other thing I’m intrigued by against Roldan, even though he may be unknown to us here in America, I know his promoter, Sampson Lewkowicz, for my entire career, over 20 years. And one thing I can say about Sampson Lewkowicz is Sampson Lewkowicz has brought lots and lots of fighters to the United States. Just as two examples, he’s the one that was primarily responsible bringing a person you might have heard of Manny Pacquiao to the United States. You also may have heard of the former middleweight and junior middleweight champion Sergio Martinez. He found him, brought him to the United States and Sebastian Fundora is another guy that he found. He’s American but, still, was not a big name, amateur, just a diamond in the rough.
The point here is very simple. Sampson Lewkowicz doesn’t bring bums when he brings guys to the United States, he brings guys that can fight. And when I see Sampson associated with a guy that I may not know a lot about and I look at his record and I see the records his opponents have and Roldan’s fought guys with good records and he brings him especially from a place like Argentina, I don’t even have to watch him and, I can tell you right off the bat, the guy can probably fight.
Now, Roldan, TJ, in his last fight, he got knocked down two times but he got up and he won the fight, he won the decision. The other thing about Roldan is this, I talked about the weight of Adorno, he’s been 135-pounder, how he’s going to 140 for his first, I guess, real fight at 140. The thing about Roldan, fought his whole career at 140 and even fought earlier in his career at 147, a naturally bigger guy. So, that plays a role in my thought process about how I’m going to pick this fight.
TJ Rives:
Very interesting and you laid out a great case there that Adorno is obviously moving up in weight, will he be able to hit harder. There’s been some suspect competition, he does have 14 KOs in his 16 wins. You and I, though, about to be on opposite sides of the aisle. Dan, what do you like here?
Dan Rafael:
Well, first of all, maybe they can show the odds on this fight once again because of the fact that the odds with the two guys that are not maybe the most known. But I looked at the numbers and I’m like, you know what, given all the things I just said, all the merit that Roldan has in this fight and you see that nice number, I just had no choice but to pick Roldan. And I just can’t help but think about the difference in size, who his handler is, the fact that he was in this fight in the first place, where he’s training, who he’s training with, looking at the record that he does have, nothing against Adorno. And by the way, Adorno, this was just a couple of years ago, was considered one of the best prospects in boxing.
When I used to work at ESPN, we did a piece where myself and one of the other folks I worked with there and our editors, we put together a list of the best fighters in boxing at a specific age. So, who were the best fighters at age 18 in professional boxing and all the way up to age 40. And I don’t remember which one it was exactly but, at that time, Adorno was maybe 20, something like that, maybe 19. We picked him as the best fighter in boxing at that age. Now, it wasn’t a deep pool but the point was he was with top rank, he was coming off of a good amateur career, he was getting a lot of hype, he was scoring a lot of knockouts, he looked like the real deal. And so, while his star has faded a little bit because of what’s occurred in the intervening few years, you can’t write him off entirely.
But all that said, the maturity level, the experience level, the amateur background also in Roldan, like I said, who his handlers are, I’m going with Roldan in this fight and I’m picking them by a decision and I have no qualms about it, to be honest with you.
TJ Rives:
Well, and you even cued. How about Antonio and our guys at BetUS, they were right there taking director’s cues from Rayfield here. You saw the value of plus 450 so we’re going to lock you in on that. It appeals to me that Adorno seems to have the bigger punch. Yes, he’s moving up, 14 KOs. I like the knockout prop, not just the money line, the money line only paying around minus 350, not great. I like the knockout prop over this 10-round fight, again, Friday night in Atlantic City. So, you and I are on opposite sides and, as always, for our BetUS crowd, you’ve been big on this, if you’re going to go ahead and take the decision prop which you’re getting great value on, you want to take the over.
The over is eight and a half rounds, you’re getting minus 190 on that, might as well double up, maybe you can pair it together in a parlay, might as well take advantage if you believe in the decision. One more time, we give that advice. For those that are new on Fridays here at the BetUS’s boxing show, we give that advice all the time that you might as well take advantage of that over number if you’re going decision.
Dan Rafael:
The other thing about it is, TJ, this is one of those fights where I have my view, you have your view and, honestly, neither one of us really know, I don’t think anybody really knows. It’s one of those fights where you take a look at what’s in front of you, you try to analyze what you see in their records. There’s really not a lot of footage on Adorno. There is on Adorno but, on Roldan, there’s not a lot of footage. So, it’s like a shot in the dark but you’re making an educated guess. And like what I did last week with the Andy Ruiz and King Kong Ortiz fight, yes, Andy Ruiz was the favorite but the number was so attractive on Ruiz in a fight that I really truly felt was an even up fight, I went with Ortiz.
Now, he didn’t win the fight but you know what? In the end, it was a super close fight. Now, you don’t win if you’re super close but my logic and my thought process was accurate even though he came up a little bit short in the fight and I have the same feeling with this one.
TJ Rives:
And you had the over in that one. I had Ruiz by the knockout, I thought I was going to be golden there with the knockout. In the second round, when he put Ortiz down twice, Ortiz showed some toughness and I could hear you saying this and we’ve got some people making some comments about this fight that Roldan probably brings that toughness here from Argentina to be able to take the punch and make this a distance fight, at least hear the bell for the ninth round. So, Trey X is talking about one of the guys Roldan fought in a draw against, got a great record but Roldan has also been the distance. I think in something like six consecutive fights, at least five, they’ve all been distance fights so it would indicate he can take a punch a little bit Then again, maybe stepping into the United States here, stepping onto the bigger stage. Let’s see if Adorno hits him with a big shot and what happens on that. So, we’re on opposite sides.
Dan Rafael:
I’ll say this about that one aspect of it. Sometimes when you think of a guy, he might have some issues traveling, he’s coming maybe from far, far away and he is going to have an issue maybe acclimating himself here. The reality is, in terms of Roldan, yes, he’s an Argentine fighter and he lives in Argentina but he’s been here in the United States for so long training in Southern California with the Fundora team, maybe he hasn’t fought in the United States but his camp has been here. So, it’s not like he’s just jetting into Atlantic City a few days before the fight, he’s been here in this country for a while. So, that gives me certainly a lot less pause than if you just knew he was coming for the first time from Argentina and landed here on Tuesday and making the way to Atlantic City, that [inaudible 00:15:03] little bit different.
So, his training here is another thing. And I saw the comment from Trey X about the record of one of the opponents that Roldan had a draw with. I don’t know the circumstances of that fight but I also know, when I look at a guy’s record, I’m not only focusing on one fight, I’m looking at the entire picture. Because if you want to take that, take a look at the negative parts of Adorno’s record other than the Michel Rivera draw which is [inaudible 00:15:32].
TJ Rives:
We have another peep. Yup, sure. We have another peep, Jeff who says Adorno decision but an upset wouldn’t shock me, distance might be the way to go. And again, this is a prospect fight, we’re not saying bet the rent money on a prospect fight in Atlantic City on a Friday night-
Dan Rafael:
Hold on. Time out, time out. I wouldn’t bet the rent money on any fight period, no matter what period.
TJ Rives:
Right, right.
Dan Rafael:
That’s just stupid.
TJ Rives:
Especially a prospect fight.
Dan Rafael:
[inaudible 00:15:55]
TJ Rives:
I’m just saying for the purposes of this. However, the over might be the safer play. The over might be the safer play in this instance that still has decent value if you’re thinking of that. That is not me, by the way, in the live chat. I am I not TJ in the live chat, another TJ that’s been in here before says-
Dan Rafael:
By the way, I totally disagree. I totally disagree with that statement. I actually think, Adorno, to a degree, based on what he’s done recently, compared to what his hype was, is actually overrated. That’s besides-
TJ Rives:
Overrated, [inaudible 00:16:20].
Dan Rafael:
The thing is, until Adorno can prove to me, against a legitimate opponent at 140 that he has that power, I won’t buy the big knockout artist stuff that he was hyped up with when he was fighting complete nobodys at lightweight.
TJ Rives:
All right, fair enough. By the way, they want us to show the records from last week. Because we still have been doing well, not just on last week, but in totality since we began in early May. So, guys, at BetUS, you can put our records up here again. I took the collar a week ago. Even though I had three winning fighters, I didn’t have the how correct on knockout or decision. For example, we sat here and thought Juan Francisco Estrada fighting in Mexico at the 118-pound division was going to win by knockout. He had a tough battle with Cortez, his opponent in Mexico. We both had the knockout, we both had the how. He ended up winning a decision, won a fairly close decision. So, sometimes you get the how wrong if you’re going into the how on that. I had Ruiz, the winner, but I had the knockout here on the show.
So, again, the how sometimes matters but take a look again. On the show, overall, we are still plus 21 going into these predictions. You see there on our record board.
Dan Rafael:
Oh, that’s pretty good right there. I’ll take that.
TJ Rives:
Yes. Especially if you’re putting a unit on every pick that we’ve made, you’d be plus 24 right now on that, there’s something to be said for that. So, again, that’s the only fight that we are making a pick on. However, before we get to your questions and answers, we’ve got the fight that, again, it’s going to capture everybody especially as we get towards next week in the sport of boxing and that is Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin. They will battle for a third time in Las Vegas again, Dan will be there. There are the odds right now which are subject to change as we get later into next week. More people get into town, more heavy betting on the fight, let’s say, Thursday becomes Friday, Friday becomes Saturday. People might be waiting to bet Golovkin to see how high those plus odds are going to go up by decision, by KO, on the money line.
For right now, Canelo is favored. Interesting that Golovkin is plus 700 to win by decision. These were two distance fights before, that’s juicy. The over under 10 and a half rounds, they were both distance fights in 2017, September 2017, September 2018 in the rematch. Okay, Dan, we’re not going to go on the record today but what do you make of seeing those odds there? Is it maybe a little too generous right now for Golovkin and might that come down some next week? In other words, if you’re thinking of taking Golovkin and betting Golovkin, you might want to do it now because he might have some money come in on him and the price goes down where you’re only getting plus 550 for decision instead of plus 700, something like that.
Dan Rafael:
Yeah, I’m shocked that the number on the knockout in particular is that high at plus 800 compared to a much lower one on Canelo. Triple G is one of the great punchers of our time, of boxing history. Canelo was an excellent puncher also. One thing people should remember, Canelo is coming off of a loss but it was in a higher weight class and he’s coming back to super middleweight where he’s the champion. In terms of Gennady, he is a unified middleweight champion but, after all these years, a very, very long career, both as an amateur and as a professional, he is now finally making the official move to the super middleweight division. He had one fight a couple years ago against Steve Rolls where the contract was 164 which is right between the middleweight limit of 160 and the super weight limit of 168 but this is going to be a super middleweight debut.
But I suspect that, his age, 40, he’ll be okay, the weight’s not that big of a thing for him. I think he’ll be more comfortable, he might actually even be a little stronger coming up in weight. Canelo’s got a great chin, Golovkin’s got a great chin, I think most people look at this and don’t necessarily see it as a knockout fight just given what has occurred in their previous two bouts as well as the history of these two guys. Because like I said, Canelo, in over 50 fights, has never been knocked down, has been really hurt one time and that’s way, way back. And I believe it was a welterweight fight against Jose Miguel Cotto, the older brother of the great Miguel Cotto, now in the hall of fame, who hurt him really badly in the first round and everybody thought, oh, my God, this guy has no chin when he was a big hyped-up prospect.
Well, ever since that moment, he’s never wavered in a fight and he has fought tons of top guys. So, his got a great chin, he’s obviously a great knockout puncher also, just take a look at that record. And again, Golovkin, never been knocked down, never been, in my estimation, visibly hurt in a fight and certainly never been stopped, also a great chin. I don’t think Triple G’s ever even really been, in any way, seriously cut in a fight. Both iron chins and both great power and it feels like distance written all over it. So, if you can get the good number on the knockout now, I might jump on it if that’s what you’re feeling. [inaudible 00:21:18].
TJ Rives:
Sure. They wailed on each other and you were ringside for both of those fights. They hit each other big time, big bombs, elaborate on that a little more and nobody went down in the 24 rounds of the two previous fights.
Dan Rafael:
Well, what I was saying is, if you think that there might be a knockout and you see that big number on Golovkin, why wait, I guess, is the point. Why wait a week when there’s a chance that those numbers are going to change? But yeah, listen, people always ask me is it a lot different watching a fight at ringside compared to if you’re watching on television. The answer is, of course. Now, in the second fight, we were further back in the arena so you don’t have as much of the feel when you’re at exactly within a five, six-feet of the ring like for a lot of fights. But when you are in that ringside position, which is the case for most of the fights, you can really feel the energy of the punches at ringside. You can certainly see it, you see and you feel the shots. Not physically you’re taking the shots but you get the energy and you just get that electricity where you feel like you know that a guy’s hitting much harder than the other guy.
In terms of Canelo and Triple G, I don’t think anybody would debate that Triple G is the bigger puncher but Canelo is a good puncher also and I’ve been ringside and watched many of their fights from five, six feet away. And particularly in Triple G’s case, knockouts that he’s had, I can still hear them and feel them. When he knocked out Matthew Macklin, for example, it was a body shot, that took place in Connecticut, I was probably, again, five feet from the ring. I still just want to wince when I think about that knockout.
TJ Rives:
What about the one punch bomb against Amir Khan? And I want to say, was that at the garden and were you-
Dan Rafael:
No, no. That was at the same arena where this fight will take place. That was actually the very first boxing main event at the T-Mobile Arena and that was indeed a very scary, sick knockout.
TJ Rives:
Big, big right hand, right?
Dan Rafael:
He just put him away cold and you could see it coming. Khan was outboxing him and doing a great job but you knew it was just a matter of time until Canelo got his bearings and found that chin of Amir’s and he sure did, he blasted it out of there. Canelo’s had a lot of exciting knockouts. That’s the thing about the Golovkin can fights, they were both fantastic fights but neither one of them produced the drama of a knockdown or multiple knockdowns or both guys hurt. I never got the real feeling in either fight, frankly, that either guy was really hurt and on the verge of going down but they just battled so hard tooth and nail. It was so many big shots and it was such high stakes, such a big fight, both big mega fights, both big crowds.
The interesting thing about this, TJ, is that I went back and I thought about this when the fight was finalized and they made this match for T-Mobile Arena, it means that all three of their fights will have taken place in that same arena.
TJ Rives:
Interesting.
Dan Rafael:
You’d be hard pressed to find great, famous trilogies in boxing where all three fights took place in the same location. I’ll give you a [inaudible 00:24:20].
TJ Rives:
And all in September, Mexican Independence Day weekend which is part of it.
Dan Rafael:
That’s true.
TJ Rives:
So, all in September, all in Las Vegas, all in the same building for a trilogy.
Dan Rafael:
So, you look at other great trilogies. Look at Ali-Frazier, two of their fights were at the Madison Square Garden. One of the fights, obviously, was in the Philippines.
TJ Rives:
Manila. Manila, Philippines. Right.
Dan Rafael:
Look at the Arturo Gatti and Micky Ward, two fights took place in the Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City but the first fight took place at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut. Take a look at Riddick Bowe and Evander Holyfield, yes, all three fights took place in Las Vegas but they were not all at the same location in Las Vegas. You can go Barrera-Morales, all three fights took place in Las Vegas but two of them were at the MGM and one of them was at the Mandalay Bay or maybe it’s the other way around. But the point is, they were all in Vegas but in different locations.
So, when you think about those trilogies, the fact that these guys are going to go in the same location, it doesn’t really do anything as far as our betting thoughts on it but I just found that interesting. Particularly when you think about the fact of how much irritation Triple G and his team must have because they feel like they were robbed by the judges twice so far in Las Vegas and they’re back in the same spot. But money talks and that’s where the money is for the fight.
TJ Rives:
And Golovkin, earlier this year, was willing to demonstrate, hey, I’ll go anywhere. He went all the way to Japan, I think you made reference to this, and beat Murata in Japan by TKO and now has set up this fantastic matchup on paper. I just wonder, we’ll talk more about it next week, you’ll be closer to it, you’ll give us some Intel, what does Golovkin have left at 40 years of age? That is a real legitimate point and concern and we really won’t know that till the bell rings and he’s in there with a younger Canelo. We’ll see.
Dan Rafael:
Listen, I suspect that he’s still got something left. Is he what he was in the first and second fight? Of course, not. But I frankly don’t think Canelo was what he was in the first and second fight and I’d say that with reverence for Canelo who is still a great fighter, obviously. But the years come up quickly, when you’re taking those shots, particularly the activity level that he’s had. Canelo’s been super active, Golovkin has not been nearly as active so you can see reasons why both of those might be negatives.
TJ Rives:
Sure.
Dan Rafael:
But the thing that I think some people, in terms of Golovkin’s situation, are harping on, I think, inappropriately so to be honest is, oh, my goodness, he looks so bad the first two or three rounds against Murata. He is coming off a long way off, he is traveling to another country overseas. You can’t discount Murata who’s maybe not a superstar in terms of his ability, although he’s a superstar in Japan, but still a good fighter, an Olympic gold medal winner, all that and won a world title, it took him a couple rounds to get going. And by the way, when he got going, he beat the crap out of Ryota Murata.
TJ Rives:
That’s correct.
Dan Rafael:
And so, here he is back against Canelo having had that fight just a few months ago, his got those rounds under his belt, he’s been in training camp, getting himself ready to go. And I don’t put a huge amount of stock in it but I like to see Gennady’s body language, see what his disposition is. So, last week, I had a lengthy Zoom call with Triple G for an interview to get some material to be writing stories for the upcoming fight. And I’ve known Triple G his entire career in terms of him fighting in the United States, it’s been 10 years since he first came to America. The anniversary of the fight where he first came here was just last week. Matter of fact, it was on the day that I had the interview with Triple G so we reminisced about that a little bit.
But the point is, his disposition, his body language is top notch. He seems very excited but quietly so about this fight, confident. I had a chance to talk to Jonathan Banks also, who is his trainer, and also the similar confidence. They know it’s a hard fight, don’t get me wrong. They don’t think, by any means, they’re going to just walk in there and run over Canelo Alvarez, they’ve already had-
TJ Rives:
Of course.
Dan Rafael:
… 24 rounds with him, they’re not stupid. But he has a quiet confidence about him and he knows what he can do and he always comes in good shape for his fights. And anybody that’s writing Triple G off in this fight because he happens to be 40 years old, I think, is just being shortsighted and stupid.
TJ Rives:
It’s a chance at undisputed at 168 pounds again. Dan will be there next week. So, we’re not making any fight picks this week on Canelo-Triple G but it will be on next week’s show. There’s a tease for next week, Friday, 1:00 Eastern time, 10:00 a.m. Pacific, Dan will be there live with us from Las Vegas for that fight. All right, question and answer time. Peeps, I’m seeing a lot of you in the live chat, get some questions if you have those, we have a few minutes here. I want to ask you one right off the bat before the peeps because nobody’s asked it yet. There’s a bunch of discussion about Tyson Fury and the possibility that he could fight Anthony Joshua.
So, Joshua just lost a couple of weeks ago back, what, three weeks ago now to Oleksandr Usyk in their rematch. Joshua has now lost three times in five fights. Fury has been on social media over and over and over again, seemingly matchmaking with everybody from Dereck Chisora to Anthony Joshua. Maybe he wants to fight a polar bear in the ring, I don’t know, but he’s been making these social media videos. Okay, the two sides now are apparently talking. To you, how realistic is it for a Fury-Joshua fight in your mind or is a lot of this just hype and social media and Fury’s fighting somebody other than Joshua when it’s all said and done if he is fighting later this year? What do you think?
Dan Rafael:
I think somebody needs to take away Tyson Fury’s phone, number one. But like you say, he is making the videos every two seconds and it’s getting ridiculous. But listen, there’s an offer that’s been made, they offered the Joshua camp 40% of the whole pot which seems fair in my estimation. But people say, well, if they’re getting him 40%, just make the fight. Yeah, okay, fine but there is a laundry list of a million other things that need to be checked off, that need to be handled. Now, obviously the big one, obviously, is the split and that’s apparently been addressed but there’s many other things.
TJ Rives:
[inaudible 00:30:04], right.
Dan Rafael:
Yeah, exactly. There’s still a lot of other stuff that has to get done. You can’t just make a snap decision and say we’re good and sign a piece of paper. Listen, I hope the fight happens. And I’d prefer, obviously, to see Tyson Fury fight Oleksandr Usyk for the undisputed title. The reason why this has come up and why Fury is out there trying to get this done apparently is because Usyk, I guess, has told everybody that, “You know what, I’m not fighting for the rest of this year.” And so, for whatever reason, Fury who, just a few weeks ago was retired, now suddenly is desperate to fight before the end of this year, he can’t make up his mind.
But nonetheless, he plans to fight end of November, early December. And if it’s not going to be Oleksandr Usyk who I guess he still would like to fight, next year, if he wins whatever his intervening match is, figures what’s the biggest fight I can make that’s not Usyk, it’s Joshua. And, as you and I talked about on our podcast, maybe he feels like he’s catching Joshua at a time where he’s lacking in confidence, he’s coming off of a loss, he just had a fight-
TJ Rives:
That’s right.
Dan Rafael:
… a few weeks ago and so he sees a perfect spot to tap him and say let’s do it. Now, all that said, TJ, like I said to you on the podcast, I feel like even if Joshua was not coming off of a fight and had not just lost that Fury would still probably look as the favorite in that matchup. But whether it actually happens or not, I really don’t know. I’m always skeptical when it comes to this stuff and knowing the way that both sides have handled their business and other negotiations, I think it’s just a lot of nonsense, I hope it’s not. If they make the fight, terrific, it’ll be a huge fight and we’ll have a lot of fun breaking it down and making our picks.
TJ Rives:
We will find out, Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. We got other questions here rolling in. Let me see in the live chat. I see the one from F Urka, he is always in here with us. He wants to know there is a pro box show, Plant City, Florida and that is Glanton and Aguilar. Those are cruiser weights in the main event and Urka wants to know about under in that fight. I don’t even have that under, I would assume it’s seven and a half or eight and a half rounds.
Dan Rafael:
Well, and I know that-
TJ Rives:
Any thought?
Dan Rafael:
F Urka is one of those guys that just has to bet on a fight, obviously.
TJ Rives:
Apparently, yes.
Dan Rafael:
Just needs it. Glanton is a pretty good fighter but I have no idea what the over-under is so I’d take a pass on that one to be quite honest.
TJ Rives:
All right. Again, I would speculate, because it’s a 10-round main event, it’s probably seven and a half or eight and a half but we’re reaching there at that point if that’s the case. All right, what else do we have? Paul has got an interesting question. We’ve been talking a lot about memorabilia and there’s a little follow up here but Paul S has a question for Dan here regarding memorabilia. There it is. He says, “What memorabilia do you collect from every fight that you attend? Do you have a go-to piece?”
Dan Rafael:
I just try to get whatever I can. I’ve covered a gazillion fights, I have saved, literally, every single credential that I’ve been issued for fights. So, the plastic badges or the wristbands that I get for fights. Mostly badges, which are cool, because they have, most of the time, the artwork of the fight and most of them are personalized so it says my name on it which is neat. So, I’ve saved those but I try to get the program if there is one, I try to get the poster if there’s-
TJ Rives:
Programs, right.
Dan Rafael:
If the location, if it’s set in a big arena but, more particularly, if it’s at, say, a casino, they’ll hand out the little handbills and that sort of thing. Whatever the ephemera is from the fight, I try to pick up. As an example, TJ, so we have our podcast that we’ve talked about, we do a contest, and you can talk about that for a minute, but we give stuff away. I find things in my collection, you gave some stuff away. So, one of the things I’m giving away for our upcoming contest is something that the MGM did for many, many years for all their big fights, dozens and dozens of fights over about a 10 or 15-year period is, if you would check into the hotel, your room key was like a credit card key but it had the picture of the fight on it and I’ve saved those from ton and ton of fights over the years.
I’ve saved the Tecate beer cups from fights over the years. I’m not too ashamed to say this, the fight would end, I finish writing my story at ringside and, as you get up to go from your ringside position to the media center for the post fight press conference, what do people do? Everybody has all their stuff on the floor, they throw their stuff away. I would find a few cups, I would spill them out, I’d bring a plastic bag, I would save them. I’d get back to my hotel room and I’d clean them up and I’d take them home and they’re my souvenirs.
TJ Rives:
I have this visualization of Rafael going through TSA security with a checked bag with 16 Tecate cups. “Sir, are you thirsty?”
Dan Rafael:
Oh, [inaudible 00:34:33].
TJ Rives:
“No, no, no, I’m not thirsty. We’re all good, yeah.”
Dan Rafael:
Maybe four or five, not quite that. So, to the question, there’s not one specific thing. If I’m there and I find a piece of memorabilia, that’s what I’m taking.
TJ Rives:
You love fight programs and you put those out on social media all the time as a piece of memorabilia as well. So, again, you keep referencing, go to Big Fight Weekend wherever you get podcasts. Our preview podcast is out, we’re talking about the Canelo-Triple G fight a little bit on that podcast in advance of next week and that’s where you were mentioning about the room key card which I’ve seen that has the replica poster on the room key card. We’re going to give that away to somebody-
Dan Rafael:
Well, I’m giving away two [inaudible 00:35:13].
TJ Rives:
… if you’d write some reviews to our podcast.
Dan Rafael:
We’re giving away one from Triple G-Canelo one. By the time the second fight happened, the MGM had stopped making the room keys with the fight on it. But I have extras from the first fight and also, as part of that, I’m giving away the one from Triple G-Canelo but, also, I’m giving away one from Mayweather-Pacquiao. Two for-
TJ Rives:
And that was a massive, obviously, interest fight in May of 2015. So, yes, right on it with that as well. Two of those room keys that you’re going to be giving away to somebody at random for free. Part of the Dan Rafael collection and he’s got an amazing collection of memorabilia, of different things. I look forward to being the curator in my old age of the Rafael Museum if we get that all set up when that happens. By the way, our BetUS crew was all over it. On the Glanton cruiserweight fight, this is pro boxer main event, the over-under is three and a half rounds-
Dan Rafael:
Oh, wow.
TJ Rives:
… with Glanton being a massive favorite. Again, we’re not just going to sit here and call you out to call you out, peeps. But if you’re betting on that fight, you’re just betting a fight to bet a fight, that’s degenerate hall of fame, potentially, there on a Friday night. Let’s see. Anything else in the live chat? I’m not sure if there is much else that is there. Juggler 23, what role does a promoter have in selecting judges for fights that he’s promoting? How does that work, Dan? Go.
Dan Rafael:
That’s a good question. The reality is the fighter has no role in selecting the judges and the people make that mistake all the time, they think the promoters have a say so in the judges. Now, what the promoters do do, and it’s on behalf of their fighters and their teams, the managers, in many locations, I’ll use Nevada as an example which host many of the biggest fights. Take Triple G and Canelo for example, they go through the process where the executive director and consultation with the commission comes up with a pool of judges that will be eligible for that particular fight. And then those names, it’s not just the three that they’re going to pick, it might be as many as six or seven or eight judges that are on the list and they go to each camp. And the Triple G camp can look at it and the Canelo camp can look at it and, if they have any particular issues, they can lodge those discussions, make those discussions with the commission ahead of time before they actually rule on it. And if there is a reason, it’s got to be something good and the commission can then knock that person off the list.
But in terms of the actual selection of who’s going to be the person that sits there and judges each round by round, they have nothing to do with that. It is up to the commission that is regulating the event and that goes for every boxing event at least. I can’t speak for third world countries, let’s say, but in the United States, in Canada, in Mexico, all through Europe, certainly in the UK, countries that [inaudible 00:37:58] boxing-
TJ Rives:
So, let me give you a couple examples.
Dan Rafael:
Yeah.
TJ Rives:
Let me give you a couple examples of [inaudible 00:38:01].
Dan Rafael:
It’s not the promoters.
TJ Rives:
Right. So, in the case of Tyson Fury’s title defense with Dillian Whyte, if I remember this correctly, they were very concerned about British judges and about some poor British judging that was going on. And if I’m not mistaken, I think I remember this correctly, for the fight with Dillian Whyte in April, they lodged that complaint and the British Boxing Board of Control did not have a British judge or they only had one or maybe they had none in that fight. They didn’t get to pick the judges, to your point, but they lodged that complaint. For the Joshua-Usyk fight, there was a British judge, there was a Ukrainian judge and the third judge was an American judge which, again, they didn’t get to pick them but they got to say, hey, we would like some objectivity so an American judge was the neutral one. And that was just a couple-
Dan Rafael:
I think that’s a terrible precedent though, I think it’s absolutely ridiculous. If you have a Ukrainian against a Brit or it could be an American against a Russian, a Mexican against a Filipino, whatever the breakdown is, that you should have one judge from each country and then some other neutral judge. That’s absurd because you’re basically saying that the guy or gal from Mexico is going to score for the Mexican fighter and that the Filipino judge is going to score for the Filipino and it’s going to be all up to whoever the third-party judge is, that’s absurd. The idea here is to get the best officials that are eligible for that fight to be on the panel.
So, I don’t really so much worry about that. But again, there are times where fighters will go out of their country and go to another place and they will ask, “Can you please make sure there’s no judge from that country?” That seems reasonable to try to avoid the appearance of the bias. But Nevada, what they do is they’ll listen to the recommendations of the parties, they will take a recommendation, perhaps, from a sanctioning body which has judges that they use often and they may give them the respect to do that. But in the end, they run a good ship there in California, New York, all these different places and they selected judges from their panel. One thing that they did in Nevada several years ago, which was one of the best things they ever did, was they used to only assign officials that were in Nevada. Now, in terms of the judging, they’ve opened it up.
If you notice on the panels for the big fights, they’ll bring in the top judges from other places. California, New York, Texas, Florida, wherever, New Jersey, they bring them in as long as they’re licensed in the state of Nevada ahead of time. And so, anyway, let’s put a real quick damper on that notion. Promoters do not pick judges for fights. If they did, you’d never see an upset if it went to the [inaudible 00:40:36].
TJ Rives:
Of course. And they have no say so in the referee either. Now, they may object to a referee in the pool of referees-
Dan Rafael:
Same thing with the judge.
TJ Rives:
… same thing. Same thing where they may object but they’re not picking it.
Dan Rafael:
Yeah. Let’s say a referee was assigned to a fight and one of the boxers had some controversial situation with that referee in a past fight, they might cite that and ask for that person to be removed from the list of the eligible refs for that fight but that’s so rare anyway. Again, they just don’t make those decisions.
TJ Rives:
All right, let’s go rapid fire. Two or three more questions that remain here on the list. TJ, this is my namesake again, not me, wants to know, just real quick answer. Anything new on Errol Spence and Terence Crawford? Do we know anything, quick answer?
Dan Rafael:
There’s nothing definitive. They’re still working through the issues. The issues, I am told, have been strictly down to what they can work out with the financial compensation for Terence Crawford. But as far as I am told, they’re still trying to get it done. Not belabor the point but I know everybody’s concerned about it, I hope it gets done. Of course, if they’re still going to go in one of those November dates, they’re not out of time yet, they still probably got about another week to get it squared away, hopefully. I would say, if we get to a couple of days after the Canelo, into the week after next and there’s been no real movement, then you might start to maybe wonder if they’re ever going to get the thing done for this year. But at that moment, at this moment, anyway, nothing to worry about, I don’t think.
TJ Rives:
Paul has a question about ticket sales here for Canelo-Triple G and what you might have heard. I would think this is one of the top fights of the year, arguably the best fight remaining in the year. I would think tickets have gone hot. Have you heard anything before we get to Vegas next week? Before you get there?
Dan Rafael:
The person’s right, the tickets are very expensive compared to past big fights in Vegas. I don’t know, there’s always rumors about tickets going into fights. One thing I know that I have heard, and there’s a few ticket people that I talked to for many years that I will definitely trust their word far more than a promoter on the situation, is that, frankly, ticket sales for the fight have maybe been a little bit soft. But again, it’s not fight week yet and that always picks up when you get closer to the fight. But there’s no doubt, the tickets are super expensive.
TJ Rives:
And again, you have you weigh it because, for example, Tyson Fury had his battle with Dillian Whyte with 94,000 people at Wembley Stadium. The ticket price were probably at least half, if not 60 or 70%, it was much reduced because you’re in a soccer stadium and not in an intimate arena where you can charge more for tickets. So, it’s what do you want. Do you want more massive capacity at lesser ticket prices or do you want massive ticket prices at the smaller intimate arena?
Dan Rafael:
Well, one thing-
TJ Rives:
That’s how they weigh these things. Yeah.
Dan Rafael:
One thing, when they had the first two Triple G and Canelo fights, both at T-Mobile Arena, the first fight generated a live gate from the tickets of a little over $27 million and the second fight generated a live gate of something like 24 million and change.
TJ Rives:
Think about that now.
Dan Rafael:
Those are-
TJ Rives:
The arena’s, what, 15,000 seats and you’re generating 27 million?
Dan Rafael:
It holds closer to 20,000 but the point is-
TJ Rives:
20,000.
Dan Rafael:
… the 24 and 27 million numbers are massive. Now, the biggest gate ever in the history of boxing, which was also in Nevada, was at the MGM Grand in 2015, that was Mayweather-Pacquiao. The tickets were off the charts. They did a 75 million gate. Now, when-
TJ Rives:
Start doing the math on what that is for ticket. Yes, exactly.
Dan Rafael:
Oh, yeah. When Floyd fought Conor McGregor, the live gate at the T-Mobile Arena, if my memory serves, was probably around 40 something million and then the next gates are those 20 million plus gates that Canelo and Triple G did and then you go down to other ones that are around 20 and then into the high teens.
TJ Rives:
Let’s say, conservatively, post pandemic, economy being what it is, they will do well to maybe make 15 million off the live gate. That’s fair, something like that and maybe [inaudible 00:44:40] millions of bonus.
Dan Rafael:
I don’t think it’s going to achieve the numbers of the second and the first fight but I think it could do 20 million plus.
TJ Rives:
Wow.
Dan Rafael:
Nobody put me in charge of the accounting so I don’t know.
TJ Rives:
Well, but keep in mind again that there is some bad blood that will build up. They had two very close fights before and Canelo, immensely popular, especially with the Mexican crowd that will be there for Independence Day weekend and their buying of the tickets, their demand for the tickets will jack the price especially on the secondary market up and what they can charge. So, we’ll see if that’s the case. Listen to me trying to sound like I’m Ticketmaster, like I’m a guru here at the end of the show. Speaking of the end of the show, we got to get to our best bets. We have one fight, it is the Showtime Friday night fight. Reminder again, this is the ShoBox series on Showtime Premium Network and that is Joseph Adorno against Roldan from Argentina, Hugo Roldan.
We are on opposite sides of the aisle, brother Rafael. You got Roldan by decision, I got Adorno by KO. These are junior welterweights. Dan doubling up taking the over as well if he’s got Roldan by decision. So, there we go. There’s the one fight that we have, we’re disagreeing on that. And this time next week, we are ready to talk about one of the premier fights that we’ve been talking about a bunch here at the end of the show, Canelo and Triple G. Other than that, are we good for another week, my friend, here on the BetUS Boxing Show?
Dan Rafael:
And you know what now, TJ, take Saturday night and late afternoon off because there’s no fights.
TJ Rives:
Yeah, as it turns out, that English fight card is not there. So, like you like to say, call your mother or maybe go play a round of golf or go check out some college football or go spend some time with the family.
Dan Rafael:
Watch the fight slot on Showtime which is a triple header, 9:00 p.m. Eastern from the Bally’s Casino in Atlantic City and then you chill out on Saturday.
TJ Rives:
There you go.
Dan Rafael:
So, [inaudible 00:46:24] the pro box card is on, see if Glanton can get the KO under four rounds. We’ll see what happens with that.
TJ Rives:
All right. So, we got those fights happening this weekend, Canelo-Triple G next weekend. Dan Rafael, thank you as always, have a great weekend, we appreciate the time here.
Dan Rafael:
You bet, my man. Talk to you later.
TJ Rives:
And we thank all of you for watching as well. We’re here Fridays at 1:00 for the BetUS Boxing Show.
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