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Artur Beterbiev vs Joe Smith Jr.+ More | June 18 | Boxing Picks & Odds

TJ Rives:

Well, hello there, and welcome back to a Friday edition of the BetUS Boxing Show. We are glad that you are here with us as it is Father’s Day weekend. Let me say, right off the bat, I’m TJ Rives. He’s Dan Rayfield, our insider. Happy Father’s Day to you, Dan.

Dan Rayfield:

Thank you. Happy Father’s Day-

TJ Rives:

Happy Father’s Day to all the fathers that are out there. And who’s your daddy? Dan Rayfield is your daddy right now on this show, with a lot of good boxing picks so far, over the last couple of weeks. That’s what it’s all about on a program. You feeling good? You feeling dangerous for a Friday?

Dan Rayfield:

I don’t know about dangerous, I’m just excited for the fight this weekend. I’m anxious to be headed to New York to cover the fights we’re going to talk about. And my first time back in New York, actually, since the pandemic, so I’m even more amped up for it.

TJ Rives:

Wonderful. We’re going to talk more about that light heavyweight unification, bout three of the world titles on the line. Russian champion, two belt world title holder, Artur Beterbiev. And Joe Smith Jr. will be in action as the WBO worldwide heavyweight champion. They will clash coming on Saturday night. More on that fight in a moment, as it tops our show here.

TJ Rives:

Reminder, as you see below, social media, how you find us on BetUS TV. This is The Boxing Show here on Fridays, live at 1:00 eastern time. If you are with us live right now, you can participate in the live chat. I will tell you before you see the rundown, there are only a couple of fights that we’re going over right now. Part of that is because of the cancellation of the Jermall Charlo world middleweight title fight. Right, Dan? The WBC middleweight championship fight was supposed to be this weekend. It is postponed. Charlo, “Oh my aching back”, he’s not able to fight right now. We hope he’s able to fight later in the summer in his hometown of Houston. So that world title fight was supposed to be this weekend, but it got put off about 10 days ago. That’s why we have one primary fight card for this weekend to talk about on the show, right, Dan?

Dan Rayfield:

Right. And you know, Charlo with the injury, they explained at the time, not ultra serious. It was said to me that the postponement would be weeks not months. So hopefully he’ll be back, maybe sometime in August, possibly. We’ll see. Hopefully he’s good because Jermall is a very exciting fighter, fighting in the hometown and the more good action, the better. But this weekend, all the attention for the most part of the boxing world, will be on the light heavyweight division in this fight between Beterbiev and Joe Smith. And it certainly, as we’ll talk about, stacks up, just an absolutely tremendous action fight.

TJ Rives:

All right, plenty to get to on that. Again, if you are seeing us live, get the live chat questions in. You can also help us by hitting that like button down below on YouTube, hit the subscribe button. We’ve already seen the subscribers grow here over the first month of the show. We would love to see that get to 300, 500, 1,000 subscribers. It only gets there with your help. Share the show out on social media, but hitting the bell, hitting the like button, subscribing to the show will help others see it and find it as well as we talk boxing here on Fridays and love to do that. So much to get to, let’s get into what Dan is alluding to. New York City, the Hulu Theater, right next to Madison Square Garden, is the site of this one. Top ranked boxing ESPN main event, Saturday night, 10:00 eastern time.

TJ Rives:

Again, the Russian, by way now of living in Canada, Artur Beterbiev against Joe Smith, who is from the New York area, from Long Island. Kind of a blue collar story, Dan, if you will. And we see our odds right here to win in this one, Beterbiev the unbeaten champion, he’s got 17 knockouts in his 17 pro wins. You see the knockout prop at only -275. So a lot of the odds makers believing that this could be a Beterbiev knockout. Joe Smith facing some long odds to win this fight, our over-under is 8.5. Dan Rayfield, where do you want to begin in sizing this one up that you will be covering ringside?

Dan Rayfield:

I think first and foremost, if you’re just a boxing fan, you’ve been looking forward to this fight because it screams action. If anybody has watched Beterbiev or watched Joe Smith, they know that they’re in crowd pleasing fights. They’re both very good punchers. They both like to come forward. They like to mix it up. It’s hard to go and find fights involving these two men that aren’t entertaining, that aren’t interesting. And now that they’re fighting each other, it seems like that’s going to be the case once again, and not only just a fight, but such big stakes, as you mentioned, because here you have Beterbiev with two of the light heavyweight titles, Joe Smith, with a third light heavyweight title. The only other belt in the weight class belongs to Dmitry Bivol who just last month had a big upset victory against Canelo Álvarez to retain his title.

Dan Rayfield:

So, these are three exciting fighters in a good weight class. And I’ve been anticipating this for a while, TJ, because these two guys have both stated, on a regular basis, that they wanted to fight each other. Now, they would have preferred to fight Canelo, obviously, but that didn’t happen. And he obviously ended up taking a defeat in that weight class and will come back down to the super middleweight division for his third fight coming in September against Triple G, Gennady Golovkin.

Dan Rayfield:

But in any event, Beterbiev and Joe Smith, they’re not running from the fire. They’re running to it. As Joe Smith said to me in an interview a few days ago that he wants to unify the titles and unify them as quickly as possible. So when he made a defense earlier this year, did not in any way, shape or form hesitate to go after this fight. And likewise, with Beterbiev, who’s also already unified two belts, he wants the third one. He had a big win a couple years ago against Oleksandr Gvozdyk, who we sent into retirement on that unification fight that took place in Philadelphia. That was very exciting. I expect very similar situation here. The question is, can he keep the knockout streak going, go to 18 knockouts in a row?

Dan Rayfield:

Joe Smith, like the odds show, a lot of people think that Beterbiev will get the knockout. And I get it, but I also look at Joe Smith’s record and I see, if you look carefully, he’s got a few losses over the years, but he was a very inexperienced young fighter when he did take a knockout, many years, like a decade ago. But ever since then, he has been in some real rough, tough battles with some excellent fighters who could punch and stood up to everything that they had to throw at him. And I’m talking about guys like Bernard Hopkins, an all-time great, who was just this past weekend inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame. He’s taken on Dmitry Bivol, went 12 rounds with him in a decision loss had him hurt. Has also faced guys like Sullivan Barrera, the former champion, Eleider “Storm” Alvarez, Jesse Hart. These are good fighters and he has not wavered against these guys. So the question is Beterbiev got the big enough shot to get rid of Joe Smith? We’re going to find out.

TJ Rives:

Yeah, we are going to find that out Saturday night. And again, for Beterbiev, he’s an interesting story. He’s a Russian Olympian, fought in the Olympics a couple of times, 2008, 2012. But Dan, elaborate on this a little bit. He has really made Montreal, Quebec, Canada, his second home. He’s not as much been back to the homeland. He did have his last fight in Russia, but that was his first ever pro fight in Russia. He had fought 16 times before that, either in Canada, United States, whatever. But Montreal is really his second home here. Little odd, little different there for the Russian Beterbiev.

Dan Rayfield:

Well, when he turned pro, he did so under the guidance and the promotion of Yvon Michel, who was the number one promoter out of Quebec. And he moved his base, he moved his life, he moved his family. He adopted Montreal. He now speaks the language. He speaks English, I think he even speaks a little French. But that’s his home, he’s been there his entire career. The war situation in Ukraine and Russia, not withstanding, I think even without that, he would be introduced as from Montreal, Canada. That’s his home, that’s where he lives, that’s where he is raising his children, where he and his wife have been for a number of years.

Dan Rayfield:

And that’s the thing, two fights ago, he had to fight in Russia was the only time he ever fought there. His last fight was in Montreal, was the homecoming fight as they billed it for his first title fight in his home area. Had a good crowd there when he knocked out Marcus Browne, a former United States Olympian. And I suspect given the fact that Montreal, by car, really is just a few hours down the Adirondack Northway and the New York State Thruway from Montreal to New York City, I do suspect that he’ll have some fans that will make that trip. Obviously, Joe Smith being from Long Island is going to be the predominant crowd favorite, but I think better Beterbiev will have a few people there. Not to mention, there’s lots of Russian folks that live in the New York area. There may be a few of them that turn out for this also, but it’s going to be a good atmosphere. And I tell you what, it’s going to be a good fight.

TJ Rives:

We’ll elaborate on Joe Smith in a second. And we’re going to get into some fight picks here in just a second on what we believe about this, but I want some audience feedback. Let’s demonstrate. Dan wants to know, hey, are they in the chat? Are the savages, as I like to say, are they already there? There are already some people giving us some feedback on this fight before we make our picks. Jonathan, I think is there with us. Let me look. What do you guys have on the screen? You have Lucas’ play. He says, “Looks like +900 for Joe Smith by knockout wouldn’t be throwing money away. What do you guys think on that?” On the Joe Smith knockout? A couple of more feedbacks before we make our picks. I see, let’s see, Jonathan- Go ahead.

Dan Rayfield:

Let me address that question from Lucas about Joe at a +900 on a knockout. It’s a good chance if Joe Smith wins the fight, it’s going to be by a knockout. As I’ve said, he’s an excellent puncher. He’s knocked a lot of guys out. Even guys he did knock out like Dmitri Bivol, I actually went back, as I said to you the other day, TJ, I went back and I watched that fight, hadn’t seen it since it occurred. And I remembered that he had hurt him late in the fight. I attended that fight and he clipped him with a right hand at the end of round 10 that had Bivol doing the walk like this, had to grab onto the ropes to get back to his corner. He is a very good puncher, Joe Smith.

Dan Rayfield:

Now, as he said to me, if he had 10 more seconds, he would’ve gotten Bivol out of there, but the point is, he’s an excellent puncher, number one. And number two, not that Beterbiev’s ever been knocked out, he’s obviously undefeated, but he is showing susceptibility to getting hit. If you go back and watch, he had a titled defense a couple years ago against Callum Johnson from England, for example. They had a four round shootout, it was a terrific fight back and forth, but he got knocked down and was badly hurt in that fight. To his credit, he got up and he came back and he knocked Callum Johnson out, but it just shows you that if you land right, and I think that Joe Smith is probably a better puncher than Callum is, you never know. Point being is, if you’re looking for a spot or maybe there’s value as you like to talk about, TJ, at +900 on a Joe Smith knockout, not the worst thing I’ve ever seen, it’s attractive.

TJ Rives:

All right. So we’ll get to a couple more comments by the way. I’m seeing, if you guys have it at BetUS, Alejandro and company. I see Jonathan saying, he’s got a prediction here of Beterbiev by KO. And again, the odds makers right now on the BetUS line have that at -200 or -225. So a lot of people believe that it will be a KO here in this one. All right, so let’s get your prediction, Dan Rayfield. Lock me in. Who wins this fight? And you might even like a second prop for this fight, but who wins this fight? And how? What do you think?

Dan Rayfield:

Well, we’ve been doing this show for a little over a month at this point, and we’ve picked a lot of fights and we’ve seen a lot of good fights, and fortunately, I’ve been right on most of my picks. I have to say, though, of all the fights that we’ve been asked to choose and to go over, I think this is in some ways the hardest one to pick, because despite what the odds say, as far as how big of an underdog Joe is, or the knockout, this, that, or the other, I find this to be a very compelling fight. And I’ve gone back and forth on this a lot of times, and I’ve asked other people in the business whose opinions, I respect what they think about the fight. I don’t do that a lot, because frankly, I usually don’t care what other people think about the picks, but it is very hard not to pick Beterbiev to win the fight.

Dan Rayfield:

I think Joe Smith’s a live dog, maybe liver than what the odds say. But I still think, and I’ve said this to you before in our conversations, pedigree is a big deal to me. He’s a two-time Olympian. He’s got good experience. He’s a brutal, brutal puncher. As good of a puncher as Joe Smith is, Beterbiev is something special. He is just a break you down, break you apart and destroy you kind of guy. Joe is a good puncher, but he’s not quite like that, and he gets hit. And I think that in the end, I think it’s going to be hard. I think both guys are going to take their licks, but when it’s all said and done, I think Artur Beterbiev runs that record, the 18 and 0, with 18 knockouts, keeps it going and remains with his two titles and grabs the other title and will be the three belt unified light heavyweight champ of the world. But getting there is going to be highly entertaining for everybody to watch, but I would be putting my money on Artur Beterbiev.

TJ Rives:

The Russian by way of Canada by knockout, you believe? You believe by knockout, laying the 275 for that one. I like the overplay here, the over at 8.5 rounds. That’s a lot, but for all the reasons you laid out, I think-

Dan Rayfield:

I agree with you, the over. I agree with that.

TJ Rives:

I think this could be a later fight. I don’t know that Joe Smith doesn’t find a way to get Beterbiev in trouble as his fight goes on and maybe stop him heroically in front of the extended family, friends around Long Island, New York, that’ll be there in New York. I don’t know what happens. So I’m going to sit back comfortably if this thing gets to a bell and the ninth round. So I’m just going with the over. You agree on the over as well. You think Beterbiev by knockout, but you think it’s coming later. We would both be surprised, no matter which, if it is an early end to this fight Saturday night in New York, right?

Dan Rayfield:

Well, I don’t know if I’d be shocked by that just because of the brute force that both guys possess. And the fact that Beterbiev was down early, that Joe Smith, granted it’s a long time ago, was stopped in the earliest part of the fight in his one knockout loss. So when you have two punchers like this an early knockout is never a surprise. So frankly, if it was a KO 1 for either guy, it’s not a total shock, just because of the blunt force trauma that they can inflict on their opponent with any one single punch.

Dan Rayfield:

The one thing I have thought about that could potentially come into play is, when Beterbiev fought Marcus Browne in his last fight, he suffered a pretty bad cut. And it hasn’t been that long since. And so yes, it’s healed, but you never know, you get touched on that tender skin, maybe the cut opens up again and there could be some problems.

TJ Rives:

He bled badly. He was bleeding for several rounds of that fight.

Dan Rayfield:

You get cut on the forehead, there’s nothing to hold it together, there’s not a lot of tissue there. So it becomes awfully messy and it usually looks way worse than it is. But sometimes the doctors are skittish when they see that. This fight’s taking place in New York where their medical protocols have really, really clamped down since a ring death, not a ring death, but a serious injury, not that long ago. You always have to think about that, if a guy’s got the tender skin. That said, I don’t think it’s going to come into play, but you never know. You never like to see the guy cut that badly and be coming back that quickly after that.

TJ Rives:

All right. So I’m just looking at this for the heck of it. You can get Joe Smith right now on the BetUS line by knockout, picking a specific round and get 80:1 odds on any round, round one through six. The odds makers at BetUS obviously think if Joe Smith is going to knockout, it is not going to be in the first six rounds of this fight. He’s 80:1 in any round, including the first round. Beterbiev is +3,300, 33:1 to win in the first round. Then it drops to 2,500 or 25:1, +1800. It drops the next two or three rounds. That just gives you an idea on, the odds makers, at least, don’t think it’s Joe Smith early.

Dan Rayfield:

I would actually think that if Joe’s going to get the knockout, it frankly would be early. Catches him cold, catches him not necessarily warmed up so perfectly for the fight, knowing that the one time he was knocked down, it wasn’t the third round, to my recollection, but it was certainly in the first few rounds of the fight. 80:1 is a good number with a guy that can punch like Joe Smith and a guy that’s showing some susceptibility like Artur Beterbiev, I’ll just put it like that.

TJ Rives:

Now again-

Dan Rayfield:

So that’s a fascinating number.

TJ Rives:

It’s 80:1 picking a specific round because the knockout prop is 8:1 to one for time in the fight. But 80:1 picking a specific round. Rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. I see them all on the BetUS number right now, 80:1, not too bad. Not too bad if you’re taking a shot with that one. And again, we lock Danny in on both the Beterbiev win by KO and on the over. I am on the over as well. In that main event fight, ESPN will show it all over the place, it’s not a pay-per-view. ESPN Late Night, Saturday night will have it from The Hulu Theater. That one coming up. All right.

TJ Rives:

Next bout is on the undercard of Beterbiev-Smith. It is the co-feature. These are featherweights. Robeisy Ramirez, a Cuban who has been a two-time gold medalist previously in the Olympics, turned pro a few years ago now, 9 and 1 as a pro. Against Super Nova, Abraham “Super” Nova, is an unbeaten featherweight. He’s fought some at junior lightweight, one weight up. He’s come back down to featherweight for this fight at 21 and 0. You see Ramirez +275 by knockout, Nova +800. Robeisy Ramirez is favored to win by decision. Look at those odds you have to lay to get Robeisy by decision in this one, all right. Feather weights, littler guys in the co-feature littler than light heavyweight. Dan, give me some insight.

Dan Rayfield:

Well, this is what I would consider that crossroads sort of fight. You have Robeisy Ramirez, the two-time Cuban Olympic gold medalist, met with a disastrous professional debut where he lost in a total shocker. He did get revenge a couple of fights later. He’s looked much better than he has since the pro debut. And there was obviously a lot of things going on. He had been basically running from the Cuban authorities for a while, and he’d had a very difficult introduction to getting to the United States and getting his pro career on track and just all kinds of things that went wrong. And it resulted in what I thought at the time, was an extremely debilitating loss. But in some ways it may not have hurt him because he had the opportunity to have his next many fights in the dark, so to speak, without anybody pressuring him and not a lot of conversation, not a lot of fan interest and just develop as a professional. Because as great as, as you can be as an amateur, professional boxing is different.

Dan Rayfield:

And, he’s done a good job since then. And as I’ve watched him develop, one thing that has stood out to me is that, when he is fighting a guy that will come to him and pressure him a little bit, he’s a little more exciting. If he’s fighting guy that hangs back, he’ll make it more boring and just box and go and get the win. So it depends on the type of opponent he has of how entertaining the fight is going to be. But no one’s going to question Robeisy Ramirez’s skillset. It is off the charts. And this is the kind of fight where he’s taking on, at least in my estimation, probably the best opponent he’s had in the first 10 fights of his career. And Nova, as you mentioned, has had a lot of experience fighting in a heavier weight division and he is undefeated, but he’s taken a step up also because I don’t think he’s ever fought anybody with the caliber of background of Ramirez, at least in terms of amateur pedigree, which as we’ve discussed, I think is very, very important.

Dan Rayfield:

And Ramirez, he’s the guy that is the one that they think can become a bonafide champion and become a pound-for-pound caliber type opponent. Not to say that Nova doesn’t have that capability, but he’s not the guy that a lot of people tab to do that. He may have the home crowd advantage, Nova is from Albany, New York, not that far away. Obviously the other guy lives in Florida, from Cuba. So I suspect that there will be some crowd excitement for Nova, get a little bit of a lift out of that. That never hurts, if you’re the underdog, especially. But as I’ve said many times, skills pay the bills. And although Nova was a good amateur himself and is an excellent professional, and as I also say, because he comes from Albany, New York, which is where I was born and I grew up in that area, I always like to follow the hometown guy. So, my heart says Abraham “Super” Nova, but my head says, Robeisy Ramirez. Skills pay the bills and we’ll see him on the scorecard at the end of 10 rounds, getting his hand raised.

TJ Rives:

We got to get a hashtag going or get a T-shirt, Skills Pay the Bills, with you and Floyd Mayweather and that famous line.

Dan Rayfield:

But give the credit to Floyd Mayweather, he’s the one.

TJ Rives:

Floyd Mayweather, I don’t know if he’s trademarked that or not with all the money that Money May has on that. All right. Let’s lock Dan in and I will lock in as well on the same thing. I’m not copping out. I’m not just trying to ride your coattails here on this, but I agree with you. This is Ramirez by decision. I see Nova being tough in the couple of fights I’ve watched him, I don’t think this is a knockout, but I think Ramirez wins, so you and I are both willing to lay the 165 for the decision win. And you are getting better value there.

TJ Rives:

Here we go again, Dan, because if you simply take Robeisy Ramirez to win it’s -500. So the how, we talk about this all the time, as we may have some new viewers here to the BetUS Boxing Show, the how sometimes will pay better. In this case, it’s paying much better for Ramirez to win by decision, if you believe that. Because you’re only laying 165, $1.65 for every dollar that you would win, as opposed to $5 for every dollar you would win for him just to win outright. So Ramirez by decision is your feeling, my feeling. Do you believe if Ramirez wins this fight, that Top Rank is now setting him up, his promotional management, that a world title shot could be soon for Ramirez, especially if he’s impressive Saturday night in the co-feature?

Dan Rayfield:

I still think he’s a little bit away from that. I don’t think he’s going to be quite on that track just yet. And the featherweight belts are spoken for to a degree, because if you take a look at who has the titles, for example, you have Leo Santa Cruz is in a mandatory situation with the regular champion, Leigh Wood. And they’re not with that same promotion. They’re not with that same television. So that’s out the window. Now they do promote Emanuel Navarrete who’s got a featherweight belt. He’s supposed to have a return fight. He’s been off for a little bit. He’s supposed to come back in some kind of fight coming this August. It certainly would not be against Ramirez if he were to win, I think that would be a little bit too quick of a turnaround. I don’t think he’s looking to step in with that kind of guy coming off that kind of layoff. So that wouldn’t happen that-

TJ Rives:

Navarrete, by the way, huge puncher from Mexico, but you’re right, he’s been away, what, like eight months, nine months? He was very active for a while. He’s been away for a while.

Dan Rayfield:

Because I think there was a combination of a minor injury plus a little bit of a disagreement with his promotion and with the contract and that sort of thing, which obviously sometimes can ground a guy’s career. But I think they’ve worked that out and that he’ll be back this summer. But the thing about it is there really isn’t a featherweight title fight available for Ramirez just yet, and I’d have to double check, but I don’t think he’s high enough in the ratings from the various sanctioning bodies where he would be in the position to have that kind of fight.

Dan Rayfield:

So, put it like this, with a victory against Super Nova, he certainly puts himself in a good trajectory and keeps himself in the conversation, will certainly improve his ranking in the organizations. And it would be considered I think, by fans and press, et cetera, as the biggest and most important victory of his professional career so far. Except maybe just cleaning up the mess of his loss by getting the revenge in the rematch. But the opponent that he fought in that fight was obviously not a legit world class fighter. He got a great win, no one can take it away from him, but it’s not like he’s going any place. Nova, I think people thought might have a chance to do something. This is a very important fight for both of their careers.

TJ Rives:

All right. Just again, by means of looking at props and looking at boxing odds , Nova to win again by knockout is +800. So the odds makers not believing in him by knockout. Ramirez by knockout is +275 in this one. But again, Dan and I of the belief, it’s a distance fight. It’s a 10 round fight, not a championship fight at 12 rounds, 10 round fight. We like the distance fight and you see us laying the odds. And with that, we’re going to get to the questions and answers. Dan wants to know if some of you have some questions here. Fire away. The guys that BetUS will put them up on the screen. I’m seeing some of them as well. For example, let’s see, Lucas is back in and says, “Hey Dan, because Gvozdyk beat Adonis Stevenson and Beterbiev beat Gvozdyk, do you consider that Beterbiev is the lineal champion in this division?” You’re big on the guy that beat the guy that beat the guy, the lineal champion. Do you consider Beterbiev, the Russian to be the lineal 175 pound champ, is his question.

Dan Rayfield:

It’s not a matter of do I consider it? It’s a matter of fact, because he is the man who beat the man. So yes, I have considered him to be quote unquote, “The champion”, in this weight class ever since that victory over Gvozdyk, which was how it was positioned at the time. That’s what I wrote about at the time. That’s what happened at the time. He is the light heavyweight champion. No disrespect to anybody else out there where they don’t, but he’s the guy. If you want to really say you are the actual legit light heavyweight champ of the world, you got to beat the guy. And that’s what Joe Smith’s going to attempt to do. Hopefully the winner of this fight will hook up with Dmitry Bivol and they can clarify that regardless, when this is all said and done. But until he loses a fight or leaves the division or retires, Artur Beterbiev is the lineal light heavyweight champion of the world.

Dan Rayfield:

Here’s the thing people don’t understand, when I’m writing stories, for example, or talking about it, I rarely refer to him as lineal because he has two of the belts. Where this became a big thing is when Tyson Fury didn’t have a sanctioning organization belt, even though he had beaten Klitschko, because he had so many problems and then was stripped of those titles, that he didn’t have the hardware, but he was still had the lineage from the Klitschko victory. It wasn’t until he defeated Deontay Wilder in their rematch, that he now had a sanctioning body title when he won the WBC title. So for all those period of time, between the Klitschko fight and when he got that belt from Wilder, he had some fights and he was the lineal champion in those fights, because he had never lost in the ring. So that’s where that comes into play. But yes, to answer the question, Artur Beterbiev is the lineal light heavyweight champion of the world. Period.

TJ Rives:

We got a couple of more that we have time to get to, BetUS, you can feed us another one. There’s guys and gals asking different questions, I think, here in the live chat. Let’s see if they have another one that’s going to come through here on this. In fact, F-Erca who’s been in with us on the live chats. And again, by the way, Dan is 7 and 1 last two weeks on the show. F-Erca says, “Hey guys, thinking of taking Wendy Toussaint by KO, versus Asinia Byfield.” All right, we’re going into weeds here, because I don’t really know about that fight. Now he laid the odds there as +200. Dan, is that fight even this weekend?

Dan Rayfield:

Yes.

TJ Rives:

I know you are the guy to refer to. Tell me more about that.

Dan Rayfield:

Wendy Toussaint is fighting Byfield, is on the preliminary portion of the card on Saturday. So I think if folks want to watch that fight, whereas the championship fight and the Robeisy Ramirez-Super Nova fight, those are the two fights that are the ESPN telecast. But before the broadcast starts on the network, they also stream all the fights on ESPN+ and Wendy Toussaint, who was with the Star Boxing promoter, Joe DeGuardia, who is the promoter of Joe Smith. He has a couple of slots on the undercard and that’s one of the two bouts that Joe has on the card.

Dan Rayfield:

Look, Toussaint is a prospect. I’m not sure how good of a prospect he is. He did have one appearance on ESPN in another fight card that DeGuardia did with Top Rank. I think it was one of Joe’s previous fights. I think it was when he beat Vlasov for the title, it may have been a different card. But nonetheless, he had one chance to fight on ESPN. He’s a prospect and he’s the favorite, he’s the quote unquote, “A side”. I’m not so sure about the knockout, but minus the knockout, I would definitely pick Toussaint to be the winner of the fight.

TJ Rives:

All right, good enough. A couple more, if we have them.

Dan Rayfield:

That is way, by the way, TJ, that’s a die hard, that’s a [inaudible], that’s in the weeds kind of guy. That’s my kind of guy right there.

TJ Rives:

The savages. The savages are here for the advice, they’re wanting to know about this. Let’s see Maryanne G I think, or Maryanne G says “Smith by KO at 9:1 odds.” And Maryanne’s made a bunch of different comments, but says he likes Smith at that +900 for the KO. We were kind of talking about that earlier. And again, just to repeat, because there’s some people that are just joining us and you may be watching this show later on, but we’re live at 1:00 eastern time and you may have joined us late. You believe if Joe Smith is getting it done, he’s getting it done by knockout, and if you can get the 9:1 odds or you even want to get really frisky, as I like to say and pick a round in the first six rounds and pick a first or second or third or fourth round specific KO, you can really cash in, but Maryanne is saying, what about 9:1?

Dan Rayfield:

My opinion, and I think I’m not going out on a limb here or I’m certainly not on an island, is if Joe’s going to win the fight, it’s probably going to be by a knockout. And most people think it Beterbiev wins the fight, it’s probably going to be by a knockout. But if you really believe that Joe gets the job and you’re picking a knockout, those are phenomenal odds, first of all. Second of all, it’s not like he hasn’t done it before. Look, he was a huge underdog, unknown when he fought on national television against who at the time was considered a top contender, Andrzej Fonfara. And what did Joe Smith do? Destroyed him in one round.

TJ Rives:

First round.

Dan Rayfield:

One of the upsets [inaudible] that year. Just a shocking first round knockout. When he was handpicked by Bernard Hopkins as what was going to be Bernard’s retirement fight, he wanted to have one more fight, he wanted a good opponent, but not a guy that was going to beat him. And the story is long and I won’t get into it, but I was kind of responsible for him picking Joe Smith as the opponent. People can Google that and check it out. But the point is he fought Joe Smith and Joe Smith, not only did he win the fight and score the upset and send Bernard into retirement on a loss, how did he do it? He knocked him out of the ring, literally out of the ring, ejected him from the ring with a punch and ended the fight.

Dan Rayfield:

So Joe has done this before, as the comment said, he’s beaten the odds many times. Can he do it in this fight? That’s the question. I don’t personally believe so, but it’s not an unreasonable thought. If he does do the upset and does it by a knockout, I will have a loss on my picking record, but it will not shock my boxing mind if he gets the job done. So if you’re a gambling person and that’s the guy you think wins, that’s a very solid pick right there.

TJ Rives:

And you can cover yourself, take him on the money line, take him on the money line to win the fight. And then also take the knockout, if you believe in the knockout and be able to win on both of those. Time for a couple more.

Dan Rayfield:

This is a great, again, my opinion, just a fantastic betting fight because I understand what the odds are, but putting the odds to the side, the scenarios that in my mind are legitimate that could play out, really could go either way in those types of directions. This is not what I would consider, despite what the numbers say, this is not an absolute Beterbiev’s absolutely winning. He’s going to destroy him. It’s going to be easy work, nothing like that. This is a serious, serious fight where you can see multiple scenarios playing out. And a Joe Smith knockout is 100% one of them.

TJ Rives:

All right, couple more people are making comments. Now, Dan is patting himself on the back about matchmaking saying Google me about matchmaking for Joe Smith. Somebody was propping me in the live chat. One of the savages about the biggest pick, or it may have been the BetUS folks were propping me saying, “Hey, what about Cordina +750 for the knockout a couple of weeks ago in the Matchroom Boxing world title fight where he knocked out…”

Dan Rayfield:

That was a great pick that you had.

TJ Rives:

But I have to confess that was kind of lightning in a bottle. I thought Cordina might wear him down and stop him. That was a thunderbolt-

Dan Rayfield:

TJ.

TJ Rives:

Right, it doesn’t matter how though, doesn’t matter how he got the knockout.

Dan Rayfield:

Take the W. Listen, I got DuBois on the over against Trevor Bryan by like 27 seconds, I’m taking the win, you know?

TJ Rives:

Take the win, take the win. We like that. Do we have time for another question? We might have one. Kevin has a question for Dan. Kevin wants to know about the George Kambosos fight, if our guys get it up on the screen here, because Kambosos, on Friday in Australia did activate the rematch clause after his one-sided decision loss to American Devin Haney, a couple of weekends ago. Kambosos has a rematch clause, he activated it. Dan, the viewer wants to know, Kevin wants to know why would this be different? He says, “I want to believe it would be different, but it looks like it would be the same fight.” Address that please?

Dan Rayfield:

Well, if in fact the fight happens, I don’t think it will be a different fight. And I’ll say now, and I’ll say in a month from now, and I’ll say when we do the preview show the day before that fight, you pick Devin Haney once again. And just to be clear on the term, I’m not sure why George said he quote unquote, “Activated the rematch clause.” My understanding with the way that this contract worked was, there was no rematch clause to activate. Most of the time when you have a contract in boxing where there’s a rematch clause and the fighter that loses has the option to activate the rematch clause, evoke the clause, however you want to term it, they have to send formal written notification within a timeframe that is set. Usually it’s 30 days, maybe it’s 45 days, whatever, but they have to do that in writing.

Dan Rayfield:

My understanding is the way that this particular contract between Haney and Kambosos was there was nothing about activating anything. The rematch was happening unless you said it’s not happening. So if you sent something that said, we’re not doing the rematch, that’s one thing, but they didn’t have to formally say we’re doing the rematch. Nonetheless, it’s very clear that George is going forward with the rematch. I have spoken to his people in the last 48 hours. They say they’ve already begun just working on the preliminary logistics, getting together with the Top Rank people, getting together with the ESPN people, as they try to determine what the date situation is for the fall, because it’s supposed to take place before the end of this year, once again in Australia. And we’ll see.

Dan Rayfield:

But, as far as the question goes in terms of, to sell Kevin K on how the fight is going to be different, I’m not here to sell you on that because I agree with you. I don’t think it’s any different. I have a lot of respect for George Kambosos. He certainly can be better than when he fought against Haney the first time. But I think that Devin Haney, with those 12 rounds of downloaded information, can also be better. And I just don’t see that, George’s skills are not suddenly going to improve dramatically.

TJ Rives:

Haney put a boxing show on him. Is it possible, because it’s the same promoter involved in the mix, is it possible that Kambosos, who made a big payday here, gets told, hang on, let Devin Haney fight Lomachenko, for example, if it can be made in the wintertime here, because that’s a Top Rank fighter and you will get the winner of that fight for your next fight. Provided Haney doesn’t win, you’d still fight Lomachenko. Do you buy my hypothetical? Do you buy my scenario at all?

Dan Rayfield:

I think that is absolutely a possibility. I think that’s a possibility that Top Rank would like to do. I talked to Bob Arum, the boss man of Top Rank, just a couple days ago, and we were talking about a few different scenarios and he definitely likes the idea of making Haney against Lomachenko. And no one’s looking to interfere with George’s rights or anything like that, but they’re just hopeful that they can have adult conversations and try to figure out a way to make the best scenario for everybody. Maybe give George another fight where he’d make another payday, let him get some confidence back, or just take on another opponent and then move on and get the title fight and the opportunity, once again, like you said, against the winner of a Lomachenko-Haney.

Dan Rayfield:

But the really biggest question mark in that scenario is what’s Lomachenko’s future? Because as we’ve mentioned, he had a deal done to fight George Kambosos in the fight that just took place. He backed out understandably, because he told his people, “Listen, I have to stay here in Ukraine. I’m part of the defense force. I’m defending my country against the Russian invasion. And so with regret, I’m not taking the fight.” But that said, it’s still not 100% clear when Lomachenko plans to have his next fight, when he plans to return. I know that his management is talking to him, but there’s been no decision made. So until you know for sure if he’s ready, willing, and able to take a fight against a Devin Haney and would be amenable to that kind of scenario, and then George Kambosos would have to get on board with it also, there’s just a lot of work to be done on both sides.

TJ Rives:

Lightweight, undisputed, world title fights. Lucrative fights. And we’ll see if it is going to be Kambosos and Haney the sequel or not for later this year. All good questions. All right, best bets. Let’s circle back to what we have for this week, with the reminder that one Dan Rayfield is 7 and 1, the last two weeks-

Dan Rayfield:

No pressure.

TJ Rives:

… On this show. Take a look on the right hand column, kids. Pay particular attention to the right hand column. Dan likes Artur Beterbiev, the Russian, to win by knockout in the Saturday night, Top Rank ESPN main event. He also obviously likes the over as I do, the fight to go later, not an early fight, over 8.5 rounds. And in the co-feature fight, a featherweight non-title fight, we both like Robeisy Ramirez, the Cuban, to win by decision over Abraham “Super” Nova. And one more time, Dan Rayfield, as we come back on camera, you will be ringside. Headed to New York, you will be ringside covering this as part of our coverage on bigfightweekend.com. Your Substack as well, Fight Freaks Unite, you’ll be writing about it and covering it. Elaborate again, one more time. How excited are you to be up there, to be ringside at the Hulu Theater for this fight card Saturday night?

Dan Rayfield:

It’s just a great matchup. I’m really excited about it. Anytime you have a unification fight, it’s significant. It’s three belts, that makes it a little bit more significant. It’s two outstanding fighters. At the very worst case scenario, these are the second and third best guys in the weight class, but I consider Beterbiev number one in the division, I would probably consider Joe number three with Bivol sandwiched in between the two of those guys. But it’s a high class fight between exciting fighters. I love punchers.

Dan Rayfield:

By the way, the Hulu Theater at Madison Square Garden is one of my favorite venues to cover fights, and I’ve covered, I don’t know, probably 40 fights there, I don’t know, it’s been a lot of fights over the years. A fantastic venue. And I love New York and I haven’t been there in two and a half years. So you add it all together and I can’t wait to be there. It’s the kind of fight where, when you pick and choose where you’re going, that’s the one you circle on the counter and say, you know what? I’m going to be ringside for that one, covering that one.

TJ Rives:

And it’s got a chance to be electric in that building, because Joe Smith again is from Long Island. He’ll have a lot of fans there. Beterbiev with the knockout streak. Looking forward to the atmosphere, by the way we were-

Dan Rayfield:

This whole thing, by the way, TJ, it’s interesting. Back 30 years ago, it was not uncommon, but in this era it’s not as common. This is the second week in a row there’s going to be a boxing event on a Saturday night in the Hulu Theater. Last week was the Edgar Berlanga- Roamer Alexis Angulo fight that we talked about and picked last week. And now seven days later, they have this fight card in there. So that shows you that boxing is alive and well in New York. And first class fights that are taking place there. And that’s a premiere venue in the country to host these types of matches.

TJ Rives:

And it’s one of the reasons why we’re here with the BetUS Boxing Show each and every Friday, because every week, even through the summer here, as everything else slows down, as you made mention of, the NBA final is over. Dubs up dubs up for Steph and the golden state warriors they want again, the NBA season is over. My Champa Bay, Lightning are still playing hockey with the Colorado Avalanche, but that could end next week. Major League Baseball will be the only remaining of the big four sports still playing in the late June and July months before we get to the F word, football.

TJ Rives:

So boxing right here, Fridays 1:00, live. And again, you may be seeing us later on Friday or on Saturday, we’ll keep promoting with the fights and the picks and thank you for the love. We saw some comments on the screen, there are a lot of people in the YouTube chat that are saying they love the show, they love the picks. The thing that you can do that will help this show is hit the like button, hit the subscribe button. Share it out, more people will find it that way. And we’re going to be here. We’re going to be here making boxing picks. And my man, Rayfield’s got a standard to live up to right now, 7 and 1 the last two weeks. Let’s see if it continues with these picks coming on Saturday. Anything else? Are we good before you head to New York for this weekend? We good?

Dan Rayfield:

I’m just still thinking about my man who was asking me about Wendy Toussaint, so that to me shows you that boxing gambling is alive and well.

TJ Rives:

I’m impressed. I try to think who got the coif cut closer. I have less, but you definitely got the close coif cut to go to New York.

Dan Rayfield:

I have to give some props though. When the pandemic started, we all stopped going to the barber shop, right? And then I found out that my wife is tremendous at doing a haircut. And I found out that when she was in college, she was cutting hair on her dorm floor with the guys and gals.

TJ Rives:

There you go.

Dan Rayfield:

And she was like the official barber of her dorm floor, going back a long time ago. And so I started getting my hair cut in the garage by my wife and I got the haircut getting ready for my trip.

TJ Rives:

On a future show, we might need a social media photo of the Rayfield coif being done by Mrs. Rayfield there with that. Mine, unfortunately, doesn’t take that long anymore, for my dome to glow, but that’s okay. We are ready. We got the summer haircuts ready. Dan is ready to invade New York. New York knows he’s coming for this Beterbiev-Smith fight coming on Saturday. Dan, enjoy yourself there. Good luck with the picks. Thank you for the time, as always, on BetUS.

Dan Rayfield:

You got it TJ. Looking forward to the weekend. I’ll talk to you when I’m up there, we talk all the time.

TJ Rives:

All right. Very good. We’ll be in touch on that. Thank you for finding us however you did. So thanks to Alejandro to Francisco, everybody at BetUS, Natalie, everybody at BetUS, Danny putting this show together and putting it on. We’ll keep growing, keep hitting the like and subscribe button, as you see on the screen. We’re back next Friday, live at 1:00 eastern time, talking boxing on BetUS. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website.

 

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