Smith vs Eubank Jr. | The Best Boxing Picks, Predictions & Odds [September 1st]

Dan Rafael:

I’m ready.

TJ Rives:

Absolutely. And we’re sorry for the delay for those of you that have been waiting to watch us live, if you’re seeing us later in the day, there was a delay on the live show. We’re apologizing for the delay, but we’re ready to go. And we’re ready to handicap a fight card in Manchester, England that is a rematch. So again, thank you for finding us. We’re typically here at 1:00 Eastern Time, a little later today, but we’re ready to go and ready to start predicting fights and get a little insight and a little handicapping on both of these. So let’s get to it right away.

The fight card is in Manchester, England that we’re interested in. It is a rematch between Liam Smith and Chris Eubank Jr. as these two will headline the Boxer Promotion Show, as we get ready for that now and we’re ready to handicap that when the guys at BetUS are ready for this. Smith and Eubank Jr. fought earlier this year in January with Liam Smith pulling the upset. So this rematch will be happening now, coming up on Saturday afternoon, US time, Saturday night, prime time in the UK. And Dan, while we await for the graphic and for everything, for everybody to be able to see that here on the show, we’re anticipating this, we’re ready to handicap the fight and there’s a lot of intrigue in the UK for sure, about this fight.

Dan Rafael:

Yeah, I mean this has become a rivalry fight, for sure. I mean originally was the rivalry was supposed to be Eubank against Conor Benn. We all know what happened there. The fight didn’t happen because of Conor Benn‘s failed drug test and when that dropped out, they were looking for another top name and Liam Smith was the guy. He’s a former champion in the junior middleweight division, has a few losses, only been stopped one time years ago by Canelo Alvarez and they made the fight and Liam Smith pulled the upset and they had some words with each other before the fight and it’s sort of mushroomed into a pretty intense all British rivalry between two good quality names.

TJ Rives:

All right, so we see the boxing odds here. Again, this is about a 50/50 fight. These are middleweights. Again, you see for Liam Smith, he is actually plus 150 for the knockout, plus 300 for the decision. Not bad odds though either on Chris Eubank Jr. This is the son of the former British star of the 1990s. Over/under his 10 and a half rounds, Dan, this is a 12 round fight. Give me a little handicapping on this Smith/Eubank rematch.

Dan Rafael:

Look, Chris Eubank was the favorite in the first fight. Obviously it didn’t work out that way. He got knocked out in the fourth round and it wasn’t like… I didn’t think it was fluky, he just sort of got nailed a few times and couldn’t take it. And as we’ve talked about when he got dropped, I believe it was at the end of the fight, he didn’t even realize that he’d been knocked down, that the fight was being stopped. He was totally out of it.

Liam Smith I think has been underappreciated for a long time, kind of been underrated for a few years. He’s better than maybe we thought he’s been and maybe he’s better at 160 having been able to bulk up a little bit than when he was struggling to make weight at 154. And Eubank, he’s got the great last name. His father was a top fighter in the ’90s and a multi-divisional world champion, and maybe he’s lived on that for a little bit. But when Eubank has stepped up against the best guys, Billy Joe Saunders, George Groves, those are the other losses that he took, he has not been able to get over that hump.

And the interesting thing about going to this fight was prior to this fight, for the past several fights, last couple of years, three years, four years, whatever it’s been, he’s been trained by Roy Jones who’s been a fighter that he has idolized other than his own father. And Roy, anybody’s familiar with the great Roy Jones, had one of the most unorthodox styles in boxing. Hands at his side, pulled straight back. But he had the crazy reflexes and the crazy speed. He’s like watching like a jazz performer. And not everybody can do that. So if you’re trying to imitate Roy Jones, good luck to you. So he, I think, spent a lot of time trying to imitate him. It didn’t really work.

And when it came into this fight, he’s now changed trainers. I don’t know if it was because there was an issue so much with Roy, but Roy had some other things going on. In any event, he’s now being trained for the first time by a much more orthodox kind of trainer, let’s say. And that’s Brian McIntyre. Brian of course has gotten great accolades in recent weeks and months for his work, for his whole career with Terrance Crawford. But of course when you’re a guy wins the big one, as Crawford did at the end of July in his knockout victory over Errol Spence, the trainer gets a lot of that credit too.

So he goes into his first bout with Brian as his trainer. I’m not so sure that’s going to make a huge amount of difference, not because Brian’s not a good trainer obviously, but they haven’t had a long training camp. It’s limited time and even if you’re going to make some changes, it doesn’t really necessarily happen overnight. So that to me is sort of an interesting sidelight to this fight to see if he can have him shore up his defense a little bit.

My opinion is that it will be not quite enough and that while I picked Eubank in the first fight and Smith won, maybe I’ll be proven wrong, but I’m taking Smith again. I don’t think he’s going to get him as early, but I picked him by the knockout and it’s a 10 and a half is the over/under. I think that Eubank goes longer. I did pick the over, not thrilled with that pick, but I think we’re going to see Smith go 210 and at the end of the day we’ll say Liam Smith had his number.

TJ Rives:

And Liam Smith obviously is a former world champion. He’s a little older. Let’s see what happens in this one. You and I on opposite sides. I think Eubank gets his revenge. I don’t know the how. So we’re going to disagree on the how. We’ll lock Dan in on the Liam Smith KO. This is where you like to make fun of me. I will go money line for Chris Eubank Jr. here and cash the plus 125 on however he wins, knockout or decision, you’re cashing plus 150 if you get the knockout. And I don’t have a feel for when. I don’t know that this is going to be a knockout by Eubank or a decision, I’m just staying away. You will take the over 10 and a half rounds. So just by one more step here, you believe this will be a longer fight where Smith pushes Eubank into the later rounds, wears him down and then eventually stops him, obviously.

Dan Rafael:

Yeah, that’s my general thought about the way the fight goes, that Eubank will be better in this fight, but in the end, not sure it’s going to be good enough to actually get the win.

TJ Rives:

All right.

Dan Rafael:

It’s one of those kinds of fights where I can totally see what you’re saying. I mean we do a betting show, they make us make picks and so I made my pick. But there are certain times where you’re extraordinarily confident in your pick. I’d be less than honest if I said this was one of those times. I can absolutely see Eubank getting the revenge, but I’m sticking with my pick. I’m sticking with Liam Smith. The evidence was there from the first fight. I don’t think it was a fluke, as some might have said. He certainly had the plan and he delivered it, but sometimes maybe we don’t know if Eubank was maybe taken a little bit lightly. We don’t know what the true impact of the training change will have been, but we’ll have to see.

But it is an intriguing fight. I mean it’s a great British rivalry. And the interesting thing, TJ, it’s not a World Championship fight, but these are in the middleweight division, which is so poor at the moment when you’ve got Triple G who’s basically retired, Charlo who was a title holder but hasn’t fought for over 800 days. And other fighters with belts who are anonymous like Janibek and Will Thierry, not well-known at all. These are probably two of the best known fighters in the weight class. I didn’t mention Erislandy Lara, another title holder that’s massively inactive. So the winner of this fight is going to be one of the biggest names in the weight class and probably get himself, not necessarily because of a mandatory, but because they’ll have a financial muscle to probably get themselves into a chance to fight for a world title.

TJ Rives:

And again, Liam Smith had been contemplating maybe retiring before the first Eubank fight. He wins it now he’s on a much bigger stage, big payday again. And again there’ll be a loud environment for sure in Manchester for this main event, middleweight Smith Eubank Jr. two, that is the main event.

Immediately preceding that fight, same boxer promotions card in Manchester, let’s talk about an up and coming junior Welterweight about to fight his ninth pro fight. So fight number two here is Adam Azim, who is 8-0 with six knockouts fighting against a Ukrainian opponent who is much more experienced, at least in terms of professional fights in Aram Fanyan. Fanyan’s got, what, 24 pro fight, I believe it is, Dan, now. Azim is a massive 17 to one favorite on the BetUS money lines. There’s no value there. The real question is if you think Azim’s going to win, is it by decision or KO, you’re going to spend a little bit on the knockout. Will this fight go the distance? Dan, give me some thoughts, because again, he’s in there with an experienced Ukrainian opponent that’s got a lot of wins.

Dan Rafael:

Azim is one of the better young fighters in Britain. Sky Channel, which is doing this fight on pay per view, they love him, they signed to a contract. Very charismatic, good punching power shown through his first eight fights. And they brought this guy in to make him look good. It was a fight that was supposed to be made event a few months ago. Azim had a hand injury with an infection on his knuckle. It was rescheduled for this card.

And look, a lot of people expect big things from this young man. He’s only 21 years old, he’s got swagger, but he’s got a fan base. He’s also got power, he’s got a good background and they’re putting in with Fanyan who’s not a big puncher. Only has, what, three or four knockouts in his career. His one loss was to a fighter named Renee Calasic Garone, who is had some upsets. He upset Carlos Valdes, the American Olympian, not a top name, but a guy that people, if they pay attention, may have heard of. That’s his one loss. That was a decision loss going back a couple years ago. So when I saw that, I was sort of like, okay, he’s been in with that level of opponent.

Now look, I think this is probably a step-up for Azim, but I think he’s more than ready for this kind of a match, especially with a guy that certainly lacks punching power based on his record. So I just think this is going to be a great showcase for Adam Azim, continue to build his name and his reputation on a big show. And I think that even though he went the distance in a recent fight that the power will be back. I picked him by a stoppage. Now Fanyan has never been stopped, the Gerone fight went the distance, but I think that Adam Azim gets to knockout in this fight. The over/under, it’s a 10 rounder, so the over/under was placed at seven and a half. I took the over, I think he will wear him down and get him out of there.

TJ Rives:

All right, so let’s lock it in. You and I agree on the Azim KO. Again for Azim, his last fight was a decision win, his first pro fight a decision win, his last fight of decision win. Six knockouts in between. And Dan, most of those are like in the first or second round. So this guy’s been explosive. Say what you want about quality of competition, he is stepping up in competition here. We both like the knockout. Go ahead.

Dan Rafael:

I was just going to say I think they match him with Fanyan partly because they believe that is durable and they want to get the young man some rounds. The first fight you mentioned in his professional debut when he went the distance, that was a six rounder. Post that he was down into some four rounders before he stepped back up. This is a 10 rounder. So I think that the people that are responsible for handling his career at Boxer and his management believe that Fanyan’s a good opponent to not pose a huge threat in terms of actually winning, but a guy that can show some durability and extend him, because when you’re a young prospect like that, one of the most important things to get the rounds in and get that very badly needed professional experience as you move along.

So that’s this type of fight, a apparently credible opponent without a lot of power, who has been in with at least a decent opponent who did lose to that opponent but went the distance. So it kind of checks all the boxes for at least on paper in terms of how you match a young fighter. So I’ve been high on Azim for a while. He’s exciting, charismatic. I just think this is another step on the train to the bigger fights.

TJ Rives:

And again, that’s what he’s looking forward to, he’s been active over the last couple of years. Again, you and I are going to disagree. You like the over seven and a half rounds. Important, again, it’s a 10 round fight in the co-feature. I’m going to take the under. I think Azim gets to a Fanyan a little quicker, the Ukrainian opponent. Let’s see again, Azim talks a good game, he’s got hype around him. He’s a little cocky. Again, Fanyan doesn’t appear to have that big of a punch. Does he shake him up maybe with a punch? Does Azim shake Fanyan early with a punch? That’s what we’re going to find out. Dan thinks it goes a little longer than I do. We’re both on the knockout in this co-feature fight. And remember the name, Adam Azim. As we move forward here, you’re going to hear that name some more probably in 2024, especially as he looks to build.

All right, so again, we got on the air a little late. Dan is hanging in there. We’re all hanging in there. We had some good nostalgia. Just one quick thing. Today would’ve been the 100th birthday of Rocky Marciano. He died in a plane crash 54 years ago, just the age of 46. We had a great discussion, first plug for the Big Fight Weekend podcast.

Dan Rafael:

[inaudible].

TJ Rives:

Yeah, he was 45 when he died. He would’ve been 46th the next day, today. He died in a plane crash the night before his 46th birthday. We had a great discussion on the Big Fight Weekend podcast about Marciano’s place in heavyweight history, but there’s no doubt he’s one of the all-time greats, just real quick before we go, and we should acknowledge that it would’ve been his hundredth birthday today, the Rock, Rocky Marciano.

Dan Rafael:

I mean one of the most legendary heavyweight champions of all time, one of the most legendary athletes of all time. I mean, he was Americana for many years during the 1950s. It was Babe Ruth, I mean, Mickey Mantle rather, and Rocky Marciano, two of the most famous athletes in the country. The country stood still when he had his boxing matches and he beat a number of Hall of Famers and he’s a Hall of Famer in his own right.

What we talk about also, is you take a look at what he came in terms of his weight. In today’s boxing, if he stayed at that weight, he’d have been a cruiser weight. I mean he was never over 200 pounds in his entire career, was winning championship fights in the 180s. It’s a different time now, obviously there’s difference in terms of people and how you work out, nutrition, supplements, things along those lines. Bodybuilding, weightlifting. I’m sure he would’ve been a bit bigger in today’s game, but tough as nails, great chin, great punch. And as popular figures there’s been, and I’m not one of the guys that necessarily has him in the top five of all time in terms of heavyweights, but certainly a top 10 heavyweight of all time. And one of the legends of boxing, period. End of story.

TJ Rives:

No doubt. And again, we cannot overstate, we are not of this age, but in the fifties and the sixties, the heavyweight champion of the world in boxing, it transcended sports. It was a mainstream big deal. And when he died in the plane crash, it was a big deal even after his retirement. So yes, Rocky Marciano, it’s amazing that he would’ve been a hundred today.

All right, one more quick thing. A lot of people are asking in the chat about the Spence/Crawford rematch. Before we are gone, Errol Spence has reportedly activated the rematch clause. No big surprise. I’ll just pose it this way to you. Do you believe that’ll be a welterweight fight, speculate, or do you think that Terrence Crawford, because it’s his choice, he won the first fight by knockout, do you think it will be a welterweight fight or might they move up? What do you think?

Dan Rafael:

Well, number one, I have confirmed that yes, in fact, Errol Spence has activated his rematch right. Whether it’s going to take place this year or early next year, and the exact weight has not apparently been disseminated yet. My assumption is that the fight will take place, although contractually supposed to be by the end of this year, I think both sides will agree to put it off until the very early part of next year. And again, while I don’t know the exact details, because it’s one thing for Errol to activate the rematch, the second part of that is that Crawford has to respond, and I’m sure he has a certain amount of time to do so, to tell him which is the weight class they’re going to do in it, because it was his option to do it as a welterweight or as a junior middleweight.

I sort of suspect they’ll do it at junior middleweight, because Terrence Crawford doesn’t… Errol may have struggled very, very much to make 147 pounds, but it’s not like Terrance Crawford makes it easily. So I think Terrance has accomplished his goal of becoming the undisputed champion. And if they have to do it and it’s not a welterweight title fight, or perhaps somehow some way along the way a junior middleweight belt opens up or something along those lines, maybe do it for a belt in that weight class. But anyway, I suspect that if it happens, it will be a junior middleweight fight. And that will, at that point, like we’ve seen with other undisputed champions, whether it’s [inaudible] moving up from bantamweight or other fighters that have done that, where belts suddenly start to be splintered.

Josh Taylor, few years ago, the one that’s been able to keep it together and when he defends on September 30th against the other Charlo Canelo Alvarez, he’ll be making, I believe it’s his third defense of the undisputed crown. Nobody in the four belt era that’s been undisputed has ever made more than two defenses to my recollection. So it’s kind of a big deal. I mean, Devin Haney did too with the Kambosos rematch and the Lomachenko fight, but now he no longer has the WBC belt because he’s going to go up to 120. So it’s hard when you have all four to keep them together. So it won’t be a surprise if they do this rematch at 154 and that will start to free up the belts at 147 pounds.

TJ Rives:

All right, good enough. We’ve given you some boxing picks. We’ve given you a couple of questions on the Q&A. Thank you for bearing with us. Let’s recap one more time. This is the Boxer Promotions main event with Liam Smith and Chris Eubank Jr. They’re the rematch. This is Saturday afternoon US time, Saturday night in the UK in Manchester. Sky Sports Pay-per-View in Britain. It will be here on ESPN Plus in the United States.

Dan and I disagree. He’s got Liam Smith by knockout. I think Eubank wins the rematch after being knocked out, somehow, some way, in this one. Dan also will take the over 10 and a half rounds on that 12 round fight. We both agree in the co-feature fight that Adam Azim will win his junior welterweight showdown by Knockout. We disagree on when that fight ends. Dan likes the over, again, he’s Captain Over on the show here. I like the under, seven and a half rounds. With that, again, we say thank you to the audience for bearing with us as the show got started a little late. Dan, have a good weekend. Enjoy the one big fight card that’ll be in England. We appreciate it as always, and we look forward to the month of September rolling and getting underway, Dan. All good stuff.

Dan Rafael:

I like that it’s in England because that means here in the United States we’re on in the late afternoon, the fights are over by probably like 6:00, 6:30 at night. Get a good night’s sleep on a Saturday night instead of being up wee hours [inaudible].

TJ Rives:

Event doubt, no doubt. Lots going on on this Labor Day weekend in the US and you saw the UFC show with Kyle and Maddie and company is coming up right after we’re done live here on this very channel at 2:00 Eastern Time. We’re here typically at one Eastern time, a little later today. Typically here at 1:00 Eastern Time with the BetUS Boxing Show. Find our Big Fight Weekend preview podcast that’s out right now, wherever you get podcasts, look for that. You’ll get more of Rives and Rafael. But we love being with you. Dan, have a great weekend. Thank you to everybody at BetUS TV for hanging in there and getting the show on the air here today. I’m merely TJ Rives, we appreciate you being with us on the BetUS Boxing Show.